I’m as shocked as you are:
And talk about hooking a brother up; for “Three Strange Days” (School of Fish) they ran a link to my piece on the Folly of David Axelrod’s Turnout Model … I don’t have the words:
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Battleground Watch 
39 Comments
Congrats! Keep up the fantastic work.
Go Keith! Go Keith! Go Keith!
~ Brittany
Congrats! Soon you will be getting on the NYT’s to replace Nate Silver…good stuff.
It’s funny the link to your piece is right above the link to the one by Jonathan Chait. You describe a fantasy, Keith, while Chait writes one. There are other descriptions of Chait’s essay I could use, but this is a family blog, so I won’t.
Unfortunately my eye fell to that Chait piece, I did not bother to click on it though.
YOU DESERVE THE RECOGNITION.
This was your best one yet.
Keith your Axelrod article was also listed as most viewed last 24 hours (lower left corner of RCP home page) earlier today. Not there anymore – quit slacking and write something new. đŸ™‚
I did not know that. Thanks so much for pointing that out. I’m a lucky guy these days.
Luck has nothing to do with it, you earned all the recognition you’ve gotten and will continue to get! đŸ™‚
~ Brittany
Congrats again Keith! You’re becoming a superstar!
I know your resources are somewhat limited now, but I’m curious to get your interpretation on the new Marquette Poll.
Here’s a little more on the new Marquette Law School Poll with Obama out in front again over Romney 51-43.
The party ID in the new survey is D + 5 (Dem 49, Rep 44, Ind 5) The party ID in the Oct 17 survey was D +1 (Dem 47, Rep 46, Ind 6) versus 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004. Now Obama leads Romney with Independents 46-41.
I’ll let Keith and others smarter than me interpret all this in depth.
First of all, D +5 is ridiculous. Wis is about 50/50 as it gets, give or take a point. Could end up being anywhere in between D +1 and R +1. Also, I think the LV screen is little too lenient on this poll judging by their early voting numbers. O leading indys is a slight concern though as I do believe whichever way the Indys go, Wis goes. Two days ago, Ras had it all even. I think its still somewhere around there. At most, O has a one or two point lead.
I agree that the D+5 seems way off. What I don’t get is the wild swing in the I’s that this poll states, especially since almost every other poll have I’s breaking overwhelmingly for Romney.
I’m wary of any poll that is Ind 5. 5??? 2008 was Ind 29. If anything we’ve seen party identification move more towards Ind than choosing R’s or D’s.
congrats again for your work! you are in the loop now!
Keith, do you have any numbers on how many hits you’re getting daily? Would love to see how many visitors (overall and unique) the site is racking up.
Maybe Keith can at least replace Dick Morris…I can’t believe RCP would link an article by that guy. He is wrong about basically every election yet people on our side keep listening to him because he says what we want to hear.
UI poll finds Romney has slight edge among Iowans in race ‘too close to call’ R-45.2 O-44.4
http://wcfcourier.com/elections/races/president/ui-poll-finds-romney-has-slight-edge-among-iowans-in/article_d8a46002-2396-11e2-aaa1-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true
Good news… I think Mitt should win IA, given all the endorsements. Would like to see another Rasmussen take there though.
I think Iowa and Colorado are looking pretty good. I am confident R/R will win CO, Iowa isn’t a sure thing, but I think it is a better than 50/50 proposition. An incumbent polling at 45% this close to the election will not win.
iowa, Colorado, New Hamshire don’t matter WITHOUT Ohio.
Unless he HIGHLY UNLIKELY flips MN, WI, PA, or MI…we will all be saluting and pledging our loyalty to Dear Rule Obama for the next 4 years.
How is WI highly unlikely? GOP won big in the Walker election, GOTV operation in WI is said to be top tier for the GOP, Ras has it 49-49, and most important, both campaigns are making big appearances which right there tells you the internal polling has it close.
Keith, congrats as always, but at this point I can hear Bear Bryant’s sage advice, “Act like you been there before, son.” Time to accept your stature and move on, buddy.
Well done Keith, terrific to see that article on RCP, I read that earlier and hoped that would get some coverage, it is clear what those polls are intended to do, and they are indeed fantasy.
Again, great work.
Take a look at the Cuyahoga county (Heavy Dem County) early voting results. The turnout for the last two days has dropped dramatically. ~10% drop (30850 in 2008 vs 27865 in 2012)
This could be the result of terrible weather or frontloading EV. Something to keep an eye on…
Click to access 2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf
I should probably post this on the last Ohio write-up.
Is there am e-mail address for Keith Backer…would like to forward him an e-mail I sent to RCP…
Ranbo
i receive emails at battlegroundwatch “at” gmail “dot” com
Keith, you deserve both fame and fortune. Well done, sir!
Congrats! You deserve it. Since I discovered this site about a month ago, I have not really found much better analysis of the polls. RCP needs you to help them redo their average and minimize the junk polls.
Woot!
Keith, I watched Jay Cost become a nationally trusted election expert. I corresponded with him back when he was being used by the RNC as the best source to determine the winner of the Ohio race in 2004. The rest was history for him. You may well start to get the recognition you deserve. And, who knows, there may be a place at the Weekly Standard for you, too!
This does not surprise me — what did surprise me was that you weren’t used more across the political sites. It took me just one evening of looking through your Blog to see just how good you were in explaining some fairly complex issues in a way that everyone could understand them.
Well done!
Keith,
Congrats on the well-deserved recognition. A quick rant on the RCP averages. When I saw Romney had lost his edge, I had to check which Democrat poll caused it. I saw that it was the National Journal Poll showing a 5-point Obama advantage. Looking for the internals, I saw there was none for the poll. Instead, the always biased Ron Brownstein (famous for AP’s Bush bashing while he was there) elaborated that they used the 2008 party breakdown for the poll, giving Ds a eight point edge. I suppose a Republican-leaning firm could get in on the worthless RCP averages if they used a 2004 party breakdown to skew it back. What has happened at RCP? Do they treat all polls the same no matter how poor they are? I mean National Journal admitted they didn’t know what the correct party breakdown should be, so they winged it based on 2008. Yet, this one poll skews the average for the RCP poll of polls, which will become the latest talking point for the political shows tonight. RCP has cetainly changed since the early years; it’s become a place where the biased poll firms know their numbers will be accepted with no questions asked (PPP etc). Hopefully, in four years, some other web site will provide some perspective and balance for those slanted polls. Keith, you ready?
I agree with what you’re saying. If Romney wins this election, then many pollsters and pundits will have egg on their faces — big time! And it will be time to issue a lot of pink slips.
You deserve the recognition, but it’s good to see modesty in this age of general shameless self-promotion :).
Keith, I’m not surprised. I just recently found your website (trhough RCP) and considering what a political junkie I am, have never seen such comprehensive and thorough analysis as you display. What is your background?
Congrats Keith but frankly, your site is a lot more substantive than theirs.
Flattered by the compliment but please be nice to them. They have been very very good to me.
Go Keith! Well deserved sir!