Romney +1 in Iowa — The Hawkeye Poll

A tight race with plenty of Undecided voters show how Iowa is clearly up for grabs based on the latest University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll.  Obama leads by 2 with Independents, 41.9 to 40.2:

Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent. “Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

While both candidates show strong support among their respective bases, Obama has a slight lead among self-described independent voters with 41.9 percent of independents supporting him compared to 40.2 percent who back Romney. “Iowa remains up for grabs and it’s understandable and worthwhile for both candidates to continue to spend time here in the remaining few days of the campaign,” says Tim Hagle, UI associate professor of political science.

The race stays tight across different sectors of the electorate as well, with Romney leading among men by 46.3 percent to 43 percent and Obama leading among women 45.9 percent to 44.1 percent.

160 Comments

  1. Loach
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sample size too small and MOE too big to be of much use. Also hard to believe that there are 4% voting 3rd party.

    • Freddie
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Still – Obama at 44.4% a week before the election? Not exactly a path towards victory for O. The 47% number is always mentioned but 44.4% is not even close to 47%. I have been thinking Obama will get 43 to 44% nationwide on election day. I think third party in Iowa will get 2 to 3%.

  2. Haus
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any internals? Iowa was D+1 in 2008…and R+2 in 2004

  3. JGS
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    R would still need OH or WI or PA or MI or NV or OR or NM (lots of places to get the EVs, but need at least one of them even if we get IA and NH).

    FL + VA + NC + IA + NH + ME-2 = 268.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    • damien
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      more likely fl va nc nh me2 co..and gotta win ohio..which also obama has to do…so pretty much ohio is key for both unless romney can steal one along the way

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Colorado…..

      • JGS
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

        CO was already included in the Romney ledger, the RCP “no tossup states” map has CO as part of 257 going to Romney. IA gets you to 263, NH gets you to 267, ME-2 gets you to 268.

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

        Pretty sure it’s 269. I counted it several times.

    • Loach
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Starting to feel like Iowa only matters if Romney takes WI or MN along with it. Other states seem like either long shots (NV, OR, NM) or so big you wouldn’t need Iowa in the first place (MI & PA) or both.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

        Iowa would matter if Romney wins Nevada.

  4. damien
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    320? 5.6? moving along

  5. zang
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like a crap poll… but plenty of other crap polls in Obama’s favor were released today, so I’ll take it.

  6. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well its the most encouraging poll of the day at least.

    • damien
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      ya those plus 8 dem samples have me down in dumps..

      • Tony
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

        You guys are falling for the trap.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

        why in the dumps? fight for your candidate and vote. Nothing’s set in stone until votes are counted.

        I think Obama is the favorite, and that the polls reflect that, but who knows? we will find out soon enough.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        “I think Obama is the favorite”

        Too bad he can’t really get early voters to vote for him. Usually the favorite doesn’t wait for election day to sneak ahead.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “I think Obama is the favorite” LOL

  7. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ABC/WA Post – Tied Nationally.

  8. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Denver Dem Mayor Goes To Wisconsin And Says Obama Getting Beat In Early Voting…

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2012/10/31/denver-mayor-michael-hancock-stumps-obama-wisconsin-early-voting-favor-president/85190/

    • margaret
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, this was great news for us. I guess he never heard the phrase: “loose lips sink ships”. LOL.

  9. LM
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Have you seen that University of Cincinnati just updated their Ohio poll they just put out days ago and it’s now 48 Obama/ 46 Romney. They were one of the most accurate in 08. They had it tied just days before, Also, Marquette in WI just updated theirs and they had it essentially tied last week at 49 O/ 48 R but now it’s 51 O/ 43 R. This is awful!!!! Obviously, if things are trending worse in these two states since last week – we’ve lost the election!!!!

    • Tony
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow. Talking about panic. Good grief.

    • zang
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      UCI was 49-49 the other day. For the latest poll, they added in Gary Johnson to skew the numbers.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Concerned trolling much?

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

        this.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        There have been way too many trolls the past 3 days. An unfortunate side effect of the blog’s increased visibility.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I know,I know, Obama having to campaign in Wisconsin is just for fun (and Clinton and Biden)..and the surrogates in MN and Penn and Michigan all tightening up…because we are losing the election (with extra exclamation points).. 😉

    • John Fisher
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama will be campaigning in WI tomorrow. So you can take the Marquette Law School poll and shove it.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LM,

      Nice try but no cigar. Conservatives know how slanted the polls are since they over sample Democrats, and we don’t freak out over them.

      I’ll give you an A for effort, but an F for failure in your lame attempt to try and dispirit us Conservatives.

      • LM
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

        I’m a Romney volunteer in a battleground state – I’ve made 100s of calls and I canvass. I am worried. I am not a troll. Am I the only Republican that’s nervous so close to the end????

      • ElmerF
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

        LM is an Eyeore. Disregard.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink

        LM, please tell us why you want Romney to win, and Obama to lose. You’re politically active, so you should be able to hold forth on the subject long enough to dispel any perceptions that you’re a troll.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hi LM, can you please tell us why you want Romney to win, and 0bama to lose (*snicker*)? Please be as detailed as possible (*snicker*).

    • Guest
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 3:05 am | Permalink | Reply

      The WI poll is a complete outlier.

      For one thing, the swing’s far too wild, and nothing can explain it. Sure, Romney’s first debate shift can be stalled and reversed, but outdone?

  10. Haus
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, can you add a “National” Tab. I know that States are the important ones but Pew just released an Early Voting poll that supports Gallup early voting poll

    • stuckinmass
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How can a poll of people who already voted still have undecideds? 😛

    • JGS
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for this, have forwarded to some of my gloating liberal friends (who uniformly claim that Gallup and Rasmussen are “all wet” on both early voting and voter ID issues). They’ve been crowing about what a respectable polling outfit Pew is.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

        Pew and Rasmussen were the most accurate pollsters of 2008!

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        How many times are we going to go over this? No, Ras was pretty bad in 2008.

      • Evan3457
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

        How many times are we going to go over this? He was poor with the individual state polls, but right on the money with the national popular vote.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

        no, not even national polls

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 12:58 am | Permalink

        Yes, with the final national vote percentages. Yes.

  11. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Wisconsin Democratic Party had to scale back Hancock’s statements, telling the Washington Examiner that while it appreciated Hancock’s efforts, his facts were off.

  12. jvnvch
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    National news:

    Pew: Romney ahead 50-43 in early voting

    *********************************************************

    “In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.”

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/31/in-deadlocked-race-neither-side -has-ground-game-advantage/

    *****************************************************************************************************************************************

    Note: I consider a 26 point swing in favor of the Republican candidate to be extremely statistically significant.

    • John
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      For this Pew result to be true a large number of Dems are voting early for Romney or Independents are going overwhelmingly for Romney. Either way it is very encouraging. Most of the big states and battleground states are showing registered D’s beating registered R’s in the returned absentee ballots and early voting so the only way to achieve a 50-43 advantage for Romeny is one/both of these happening.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        Either way is fine with me.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pssst, hey, don’t tell Peter about this Pew Poll. He might start drinking heavily.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sample size is N=324…would have liked to have seen at least 400-500 for a lower MoE.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

        It’s the 26 point swing that counts, in my opinion.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, it’s worth raising an eye brow over.

  13. Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    worthless poll. Way too small of a sample size and MOE is statistically meaninglessly large

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s not worthless. MoE on N=324 at 130M is +/- 5.44%. R’s lead is outside the MoE so it’s significant.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        Ah, well not outside MoE…but approaching the upper reaches of the band.

  14. LM
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith and others, am I wrong to worry about those two polls coming out of Ohio and WI today? Is there something wrong with them?

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yes LM you should worry. You should immediately go to your bunker, lock the door and stay underground at least through Wednesday, November 7th for the safety of all.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        LOL.

      • Tony
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

        That was mean, but funny.

    • Tony
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      At this stage, public polls are useless. The candidates internals dictate the travel, thus that’s how you tell where the race really is competitive.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        national polls mean nothing, it’s all state polls. And even now as we approach the weekend it just comes down to TURNOUT.

        But anyone expecting a blowout (either side) or 300+ EC votes, etc are delusional. PA/MI/MN/WI are NOT going to flip.

        This race will come down to Ohio. And probably less than 100,000 votes in Ohio. Nationally it may be a point, maybe 2. But it will come down to 1 state, a relative handfull of people deciding this.

        There will be no landslide, blowout and anyone thinking or expecting is setting themselves up for a massive let down. Whomever wins will do so 285 votes or less in the EC and looking more closer to 271 or 277.

        It is about Romney getting people out in EPIC proportions. Their internals tell them they are down by about 2. That means they have to overwhelm the voting precients across the state.

        No Ohio, no President Romney. Instead we will get a guy who thinks a razo thin 271 is a MANDATE to continue is transformation of America

      • EpiphoneKnight
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

        Ras had WI tie, Trib (MN) had O +3, Susq. had PA Mitt +4, some other pollster had MI tie. Any of these could easily flip. The assumption that these are out of reach is an a priori dedication to beltway politics.

      • Barf
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        @shane:

        Romney leads in Ohio. Did you not read the Folly of Axelrod’s Turnout by Keith? Romney will win Ohio by 3 points. You’re definitely the Debbie Downer amongst the posters here.

      • Shane kovac
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

        Barf

        I am a reality broken. After 18 yrs working in and around politics I have learned to temper my enthusiasm with healthy doses of devil’s advocate.

        Keeps me sane.. But rest assured I will love coming to admit my errors of skepticism on Wed B-)

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is it okay to be nervous…sure. Panic? No.

    • Dabrisha
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 5:26 am | Permalink | Reply

      Unlike everyone else here, I am actually with you…Romney needs to make another push to seal those states everyone is taking for granted (VA, FL, CO), and more than that for OH, IA, NH…

  15. Tony
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here is Obama’s schedule:

    “On Saturday, November 3, President Obama will deliver remarks at grassroots events in Mentor, Ohio; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Dubuque, Iowa and Bristow, Virginia. On Sunday, November 4, the President will campaign in Concord, New Hampshire; Ft. Lauderdale, Florida; Cincinnati, Ohio and Aurora, Colorado.”

    He is hitting Ohio for the next 4 days in a row. Romney will be in Va all day tomorrow, then Wi and Ohio on Fri. NH, Co….Sunday is blank so far. Probably in Ohio and maybe Iowa.

  16. John Fisher
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Romney is up 7 with early voters – that’s about where this election is going to wind up.

  17. Haus
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Romney conference call
    http://washingtonexaminer.com/the-romney-conference-call/article/2512268#.UJGd228dxqg

    …Ohio (where he used counties for analysis rather than precincts, as the Obama campaign does, which he said have had boundary changes since 2008), Iowa (if Democrats don’t lead by 130,000 in early voting, which they have specialized in, Romney will win the state), Virginia (Romney is nearing 70% of early voting in “coal country”), North Carolina (he claimed Romney is 102,000 ahead in early voting), Colorado (“they need to win early and absentee, we’re actually ahead” in a state that now has more registered Republicans than Democrats), Nevada (Obama needs to win early voting in Las Vegas’s Clark County by 80,000 to carry the state). He didn’t mention Wisconsin, which I thought odd, and I was startled when he said that Romney would carry Florida by double digits. During the question and answer period, he corrected himself by predicting that Romney would carry the election day vote by double digits…

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Remember Michael Barone is one of the very best political analysts in the press corps. When asked a couple days ago who was going to win, he said, “Mitt Romney.”

  18. Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey Peter, Rasmussen was on the money nationally in 04 and 08. Check the record. His state polls do tend to skew Republican, but if he is ahead by 2 or more nationally, and the incumbant is well below 50%, the state polls don’t matter. Romney will win. What was Rasmussen’s prediction in 08 and 04 by the way? Tell me that and then tell me how bad he was.

  19. No Tribe
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Adding to VA, FL, CO. It seems Iowa comes next. Gets to 263. One state to go, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Ohio? Too bad NH and ME02 only gets to 268.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I really do believe that Wisconsin is going to surprise a bunch of people by it going Republican. And Ohio might surprise us too, but not shock, if it winds up being for Obama. I think the ground game of Republicans in Wisconsin is stronger than any place else. And likewise, the Democratic groundgame in Wisconsin is very weak. So if that’s the case, it comes down to Iowa, and I believe Romney will win Iowa.

      • JimmyB
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

        Not that I know anything, but I can see a scenario playing out where Ohio goes blue next Tuesday, and the MSM start crowing about how O has been re-elected (since there is ‘no way’ Romney can win without it), only to watch Wisconsin and Iowa go red. And then we all get to stay up and wait for CO.

        What happened with the recall gives me some hope about Wisky this cycle.

  20. jpcapra1
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    FWIW, Peter Palco was the guy who said “Michigan definitely was not in play” a month ago. I knew it was because 0bama tripled his field office presence there. I do my homework, and know what I’m talking about.

  21. zang
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This has to be one of the more unintentionally hilarious stories of the cycle… mentions that Obama is visiting a state twice in the final days of the campaign, but also declares that polls show him up there by 8.

    Obama to Campaign in Wis. Thursday and Saturday

    Posted at: 10/31/2012 7:13 AM | Updated at: 10/31/2012 4:40 PM

    ASHWAUBENON, Wis. (AP) – President Barack Obama will be campaigning in Milwaukee on Saturday as part of a multistate swing before Tuesday’s election.

    His campaign announced the stop on Wednesday. The president is also campaigning in Green Bay on Thursday morning.

    The two new stops come as a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday shows Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent in Wisconsin.

  22. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just have to say…I am getting depressed with the polls today on RCP. Now it shows Romney and Obama tied the RCP average nationally and Romney is dropping in almost all of the battleground states. I hope this isn’t true or indicate the outcome but unless most of these polls are wrong Romney is looking at defeat not by a large margin but by a small margin but it won’t matter. If we are to listen to the news including Fox and look at the polls then Romney’s momentum has stalled and the way Obama has handled the storm crisis will put him over the top on Tues. Of course it doesn’t help that Christie personally invited Obama to NJ today and heaped praise upon Obama after saying we need new leadership at the RNC convention. I am deeply afraid that many Americans have short memories such as forgetting how bad the economy is, lies about Libya and so many lies that I can’t type them all here but people do easily forget what’s important in the long term. People in general react with emotion and seeing all this so called bipartisan stuff and a Republican loving up on Obama is devastating to Romney even though it’s there is nothing he can do about. It is possible the momentum he had after the 1st debate has stalled. As I stated, people have short memories, maybe Romney peaked and is now slowly fading. I really hope none of what I am saying is true but now I understand why so many bad polls about the person you support makes you really depressed. Maybe it’s called voter suppression although I have already voted. I have been looking forward to election night until today. I really felt like the polls were off and some of them were good for Romney but today I feel completely beaten. All I can do now is hope and pray!

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Maybe Chris is thinking about party jumping.

    • Tony
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As evident by his lame, self-serving RNC speech, Christie is only thinking about himself. He knew what he was doing when he was praising Obama. What a joke. However, Sandy will be forgotten once Obama starts campaigning again tomorrow.

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

        what was christie praising him for? For not hanging up on him? What did he expect the fed’l gov’t would do, tell them to drop dead?

      • RhodyKev
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        Got to remember Christie is up for re-election in a very blue state in 2 yrs…

  23. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One more thing…can most of these polls be wrong??? I really hope they are but I am getting increasingly worried, and I mean very worried!!!!!!!!

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You’re not fooling anyone, you know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  24. Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup says that voter turnout in 2012 will be lower — more like 2000 than 2004 or 2008. Anybody able to say what impact that would have on the outcome?

  25. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also, just saw a Marquette poll in Wisconsin. Obama way up 51-43!

    • M. White
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s weighted D+5

    • zang
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The poll is so accurate that Obama is going to WI on Thursday and Saturday.

      • margaret
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

        Yup, that is very telling. These are the last days of the campaign and the most valuable time is being spent in a state he has locked down? I don’t think so (and neither does the Mayor of Denver aka Mr Loose Lips).

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

        Nice counter, zang.

    • Dan
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I just jumped out a window!…the basement window.

  26. John
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New Fox News poll says 46-46. Hard to believe still 8% undecided but an incumbent president at 46% six days out can’t be good for him 🙂

    • Kevin
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That many undecides is bad news for Obama. As I heard it explain once,

      If you ask a woman if she’s still going to be married to her husband this November, and she says, “I’m undecided” that’s bad news for the husband.
      If you ask your boss if you’re still going to have a job this November, and your boss says, “I’m undecided” that’s bad news for you.
      And if you ask a voter if they’re going to vote for the President this November, and they say, “I’m undecided” that’s bad news for the sitting President.

    • John
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just checked the Fox News poll internals and it is D+5 so amazingly bad for Obama to be at 46% 🙂

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And look at that number for O…46. 47, 46, 48, 47, 46…see a pattern? Folks forget that in 2008, the national polls didn’t nail the final outcome…they under repesented Obama’s number. But what they did do is nail McCain’s number, the defacto incumbent. This year? Obama’s number has been pretty range bound between 45-48 while Mitt’s has moved around.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

        Pew, Gallup, and Ras are seeing an electorate similar to 04′ if not slightly more favorable to Romney. Bush won re-election in 2004 in an R+1 electorate while *losing* indies by 2 points 50.7 to 48.3. If it’s R+1 and Mitt wins indies by 7 you’d be looking at something like 52R and 47O, the early voting tallies by Gallup and Pew would seem to confirm this. At 52-47 I really don’t see how the electoral college wouldn’t fall in to place.

      • Freddie
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

        That 47 number is starting to look like 45 and 44 in some polls, which is even worse for O.

  27. Brad
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If I was the President I would call a major press conference about Sandy and knock Mitt off the news cycle for another day. That would leave him only with Fri and Sat. and Mon. given that he’s likely to be taking Sun. off for religious reasons. Weird seeing Christie campaigning for the President today…but when you’re up for re-election next year….

    • zang
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am sure Axelrod took polls to determine whether to play the storm card or return to the battlegrounds.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        Thats right John – there you go – Fox News Poll 46% – 46%, D+5!
        Obama is on the Titanic and Tuesday the 6th is the Iceberg.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

        No doubt….looks like they’re choosing to go the battleground route which does suggest that they’re not really comfortable with where they are at.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Brad I think there is also something else too, if this ends up a D+2-3 election then Obama is toast, but if it is an even or R+ election, then this would tip those tight Senate races to the Republicans, which is the Dems worst nightmare.

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

        It is interesting that national prognosticators are convinced this is a D+5-D+8 election, yet they are calling for a wash in the House and Senate races. If it’s D+8, we not only lose the WH the House and Senate will go Dem as well.

      • Evan3457
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

        That is an excellent point, Brad. If the electorate is really D+7-8, the Dems carry all the close Senate races, yet no one’s predicting that.

  28. nvClark
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/the-romney-conference-call/article/2512268#.UJGd228dxqg
    “Obama needs to win early voting in Las Vegas’s Clark County by 80,000 to carry the state”

    Considering the fact that Obama is currently only winning Clark County’s early vote by 50217, and that the average daily Dem lead over Reps is 4565, and that there are only three more days of early voting left, including today, this means that according to this article Rich Beeson who is a Field Director for Romney’s Campaign is essentially saying that Romney is going to win NV.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting. IA numbers look great as well. Per the same call as your citation, O needs to win early vote in IA by 130k…as of today D’s only lead by about 62k.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

        Well, if he gets NV, IA, and CO, he can win by getting any other state on the map, even without OH. But I really don’t know why if he won NV he wouldn’t do even better in OH which is really the most interesting thing about the NV claim because if he just gets OH and NV he will win without any other states at all (under the assumption that you take for granted that he will get FL, NC, and VA)

      • Brad
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        Shhh. I looked at early vote numbers for OH today…gotta say I’m feeling better about OH now. W. OH looking a lot better in terms of turnout.

    • Kn
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How is washoe looking? Even if Romney is doing better than expected in Clark. Washoe is not one to be taken for granted.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

        The current Dem lead over Reps in Washoe is 1117, the average daily Dem lead over Reps is 102. However 5 of the last 11 days have featured Rep leads over Dems instead of the reverse and if you throw away the first two days of early voting when Dems got 985 and 432 votes more than Reps respectively then the average daily lead actually favors REPS by 33. In other words it’s more than possible that the next three days will see the Dems cumulative lead decrease.

  29. JGS
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    DRUDGE REPORT TEASE (DOESN’T SAY WHICH CAMPAIGN WILL AFFECT):

    SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING

    • jeff
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Could be house or senate. Doesnt indicate presidential race.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

        Well the dems have pulled this stunt before on republican races… hmm…

    • John
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sorry old news. Sex scandal has already hit campaign trail – Bill Clinton.

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tomorrow is the last chance for getting out your October surprise. Thursday is the last big newscyle before the weekend. Should be loads o’ fun. Bush’s DUI stuff came out the Thurs. before.

    • John
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      After thinking hard about this have come to conclusion it probably does NOT involve Biden

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

        Just saw posted somewhere else, that it is a senate race

    • nvClark
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Aww man, I sure hope this is bogus, if it’s a scandal involving Romney that’s bad for obvious reasons. But if it’s a scandal involving Obama then all it does is muddy up and taint what I am nearly certain would have been a clean win. Who wants to win with dirt and sleaze when you can win on substance? If this is not bogus it’s bad for Romney no matter what. (PS: by my own arbitrary definitions if it doesn’t involve one of the two presidential candidates themselves then that counts as bogus)

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

        totally agree with you I wish this stuff would just stay out of it. it should be about the issues, and nothing else.

      • Evan3457
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

        Except for 2008, when he had an economic disaster to hang on the Republicans, Obama’s never been able to win that way, Torch.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

        Hmm, Drudge now has a picture of Obama under the scandal headline??

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink

        Notice that the picture of Obama shows his wedding ring.

      • jeff
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

        Some very encouraging analysis ny Karl Rove on Ohion Says as of today Absentee early voting looking grim for Obama. Way behind 2008. Expects Romney to wiin Calls most Ohio polls showing Obama ahead as bogus.

      • TheTorch
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

        Hmm, well too be honest i wish everything would just focus on the issues, so much going on, the sandy storm, election. it should be about issues!

      • JGS
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

        If it’s about Obama infidelity at this juncture, you’d better have hard proof or this will boomerang. And it might boomerang anyway, look at how Bill Clinton is so highly regarded notwithstanding turning the Oval Office into the Oral Office.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

        A couple years ago some guy wrote a book claiming that he had a homosexual liaison with Obama in Chicago. The guy was strange and unstable so no one gave it any credence.

    • NHConservative
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There is a picture of Barak under it now…I’m assuming it’s his campaign (or him and Rahm).

  30. J
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For all those worried aboutolls catch Rove on O Reilly

  31. J
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Meant polls

  32. Jim S.
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Analysis from Rove, is making his call at 51-48 Romney. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion Arguably the best bit in the article

    “But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

    That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.”

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep Rove is confirming what most of us think. The trends are there, the early voting info, it is undeniable. Go R&R!

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is excellent. It is all about the numbers.

    • margaret
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can’t say I have ever liked Rove but he certainly knew his numbers for the 2004 campaign so I listen to what he has to say.

  33. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This article is great from Karl Rove and if anybody knows the numbers, he does! He may be a Republican but he is good at this, and I mean very good!
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion
    He was also on O’Reilly a few minutes ago saying the same thing!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Very good. Remember when he said he “had the math” and predicted that the GOP would keep the House and Senate in 2006?

      Good times!

      http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2006/11/the_math/

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

        Whatever. Go and write some comments on Nate Silver’s blog.

      • zang
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

        Karl Rove’s 2008 prediction:

        Karl Rove
        Winner: Obama
        Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

        predicting Obama would win is not much of a feat. EVERYONE knew Obama would win.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 1:01 am | Permalink

        Exactly the point, Peter. In 2008, Rove had no dog in the race, and he was pretty much right on. Just like this year.

  34. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING… (Drudge Report)

    • Jim S.
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Probably a Senate race or something, and Drudge wouldn’t get out in front of it unless it was favorable to Republicans.

      • nvClark
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

        No matter who this features it is in no way favorable to Republicans who were doing just fine without this kind of garbage.

      • Freddie
        Posted November 1, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink

        Drudge is saying powerful senator. This usually means NE, CA, maybe AZ (mccain is too old). Powerful senator?? Reid, Kerry, Schumer, It would probably be a male.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree nv

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s on Drudge so it’s probably something about a Dem or O. Speaking of which, I’ve always wondered whether a candidate could do this: Leak a late hit story on yourself, blame your opponent for the “false accusation” in the hopes of garnering sympathy – in this case w/ women, and yet change the channel by knocking your opponent off the airwaves for the last days of the campaign – i.e. no more talk of the economy – think of it as a “Wag the Dog” sort of thing, but only in reverse.

  35. Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Drudge has been going big with what turn out to be “nothing burgers” all season.

    probably some obscure congressman representing Bum Fluff, Idaho……

  36. Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So….early voting, which Obama won last time, is now Republican.

    Independents, which Obama won last time, are consistently R often by double digits

    McCain won more Dems than Obama won Repubs in 2008, so presumably we see the same this time.

    Dem turnout won’t be anywhere near their historic high of 2008, and Repub turnout won’t be anywhere near their historic low of 2008.

    What exactly are people worrying about???

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly. It is either a Romney win just over the 270, or a blow out!

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well the big pollsters were off today. All these no-namers published a slew of pro-Obama material today and spooked Mitt fans.

  37. No Tribe
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Polls coming in today a big fat TIED nationally:

    R+5 Gallup (frozen)
    R+2 Rasmussen
    R+1 PPP
    R+1 Zogby
    TIE Fox
    TIE WaPost
    TIE UPI
    TIE ARG
    O+1 TIPP (frozen)
    O+1 IPSOS
    O+1 YouGov
    O+1 CBS
    O+5 National Journal

    The NJ is basically another PEW poll. One would expect Gallup to also tighten up to the nearer mean, but this is a nice even distribution. TIPP will drop off a big Obama day when it begins again. 13 polls and a tie. Obama has gained back the point that Romney held a lead with, but that’s mostly due to one poll.

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tie should favor the challenger. In ’04, state polls Showed Kerry winning, but national polls trended toward Bush, is what it looks like. Will be interesting to see how Gallup plays out in the last few days and how Rasmussen does as well. Also, will voter turnout drop in hurricane affected areas? Will this change anything?

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, but look at Os numbers across those polls.

    • easternimm
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      what is the conection between national jurnal and pew?

  38. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    obama-twice-uses-msnbc-slogan-lean-forward-while-addressing-disaster-relief
    Also, in a tweet from Gov. Christie used the words “lean forward”! What the hell does that mean?

  39. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/31/good-bush-economy-attacked-bad-obama-economy-ignored-by-media/
    This is great comparing the liberal news coverage. Fox has this new feature on their website: Media Bias
    Also, I like to go to Newsbusters.org and Media Research Center. They both catch and tell of the liberal media bias!

  40. M. White
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Look at CNN’s front page on the web! Politizing the storm, imagine that??? It gets even worse on MSNBC!

    • Brad
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is what it is. We knew it was coming. No one watches CNN these days, so no biggie.

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 9:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      CNN are unbelievable at this rate there gonna end up with 100,000 viewers!

One Trackback

  1. […] Read the whole story at BattlegroundWatch […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: