Monthly Archives: January 2013

Sobriety, Thy Name is Barone

The only people who are always right are the people who never have opinions until after-the-fact.  Anyone dismissing Michael Barone for erroneous election day predictions will do so at their own peril.  His latest in the Washington Examiner is a sober reminder about the political realities for both parties:

Neither of our two political parties is going to be annihilated. Both have suffered far worse defeats than Mitt Romney and the Republicans suffered in 2012. Both have figured out how to adapt and win over voters who used to vote against them. Or at least to position themselves to win when the other side’s president is seen to have massively failed. The 2008-2012 Obama campaign — it never really stopped — did an excellent job of turning out just enough voters to win 332 electoral votes. But Obama carried just 26 states to Mitt Romney’s 24, which is relevant when you look at future Senate elections. As for House elections, Obama carried only 207 congressional districts to Romney’s 228. That’s partly because Republicans had the advantage in redistricting after the 2010 census.

Core constituencies:

Obama core constituencies — blacks, Hispanics, gentry liberals — tend to be clustered geographically in central city neighborhoods in big metropolitan areas. His big margins there helped him carry many electoral votes but not so many congressional districts. [But] Obama’s in-your-face liberalism, so apparent in last week’s inaugural speech, antagonized some groups in a way that may hurt Democrats for some time to come.

Changing constituencies:

The Obamacare contraception mandate helped Mitt Romney carry 59 percent of white Catholics — probably their highest Republican percentage ever — and 78 percent of white evangelical Protestants. These groups total 44 percent of the electorate. That’s a counterbalance to Obama’s 93 percent among blacks and 71 percent among Hispanics. They were just 23 percent of the electorate, and while Hispanics will be a growing percentage, blacks probably won’t.

Don’t get too comfortable in that “permanent majority”:

George W. Bush’s 51 percent re-election, with 11.5 million more votes than four years before, got his strategist Karl Rove musing about a permanent Republican majority. That didn’t happen. Now Barack Obama’s 51 percent re-election, with 3.5 million fewer votes than four years before, has Democrats talking about annihilating the Republican Party. That’s not likely to happen either.

Top 10 Counties That Hate America

These are the inverse of Battleground Counties.  Coincidentally I grew up in County #4 (PG 4 LIFE):

Following are the 10 counties or county equivalents where President Barack Obama took his largest share of the vote. Most are black-majority areas that historically are staunchly Democratic and were eager to re-elect Obama, the first black president in the nation’s history.

1. Shannon, South Dakota (93%): included within the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in the southwestern part of the state.

2. Bronx, New York (91%): about one in nine residents in New York City’s northernmost borough is non-Hispanic white. Bronx has been the most pro-Democratic New York City borough in five straight presidential elections.

3. Petersburg, Virginia (90%): a black-majority area about 25 miles south of Richmond.

4. Prince George’s, Maryland (90%): a black-majority area that abuts Washington, D.C.

5. Jefferson, Mississippi (89%): a sparsely populated, black-majority area by the Mississippi River south of Vicksburg.

6. Claiborne, Mississippi (88%): a black-majority county that abuts Jefferson to the north.

7. Baltimore city, Maryland (87%): more than three in five residents are black in Maryland’s biggest city.

8. Macon, Alabama (87%): a black-majority area that includes Tuskegee, the birthplace of Rosa Parks and the site of a university founded by Booker T. Washington.

9. Menominee, Wisconsin (86%): includes the Menominee Indian Tribe about 45 miles northwest of Green Bay.

10. Starr, Texas (86%): about 96 percent of residents are Hispanic in this low-income area on the Mexican border in south Texas.

Go Irish! Beat Tide!

This one is for all the marbles:

Go Irish! Beat Tide!
Peter King, Notre Dame ’68 George Wallace, Alabama ’37
Father of Erin (’95, ’98) and Sean (’99), Chairman of House Committee on Homeland Security
Governor of Alabama, notorious segregationist, shot in Laurel, MD (PG in the house!)