Democrats Rebound in Tuesday Early Voting in Clark County

Week 2 early voting in Clark County continues to tell very different stories.  Estimates on the large pick up in early voting have mostly proved to be unfounded.  Democrats, the regular leaders in this area, have failed to even match their weekday average in either of the first two days. And Republicans came out of the gate flying but settled back to only slightly outperform the prior week’s average turnout.  Overall turnout is only marginally higher than the first week average giving rise to concerns that Democrats lack enthusiasm and Republicans may have cannibalized some early votes during their week 1 pick-up.  Today should be of great interest.  The early voting sites change locations around the state and Democrats have en enormous advantage today.  If they do not annihilate Republicans in this last big opportunity for them Thursday and Friday could be Republican turn-out efforts we’ve never seen before.  On the day, Democrats cast 13,002 ballots and Republicans cast 10,100 ballots for a 2898 net gain. The Independent/Other group continued their steady march upward garnering 20.7% of the overall ballots cast.

Under-reported on this site is the combination of absentee ballots and early voting elsewhere in the state.  Absent Hurricane Sandy, I fully intended to incorporate those results to give a better state-wide picture.  But lacking my original models and a host of other data, it has become too much to recreate with everything else going on (like rotating between the 2 sets of clothes I am living out of…good times).  That said, there is plenty of important information in the aggregate data such as the spread between the two parties in overall ballots cast state-wide is only 6% in favor of the Democrats far less than their lead in 2008.

50 Comments

  1. Kevin Paradine
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith: you’re on RCP again, the Narnia post. Congrats, you’ve arrived!

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks. I really can’t believe my luck. Those guys have been fantastic. 6 more days . . .

  2. easternimm
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Nevada is going to be tougher to get for Romney than WI or OH. Unfortunately the Republicans have a big problem with Hispanics voters. One of the best Bush policies and plans, that regarding immigration reform, is not followed by Romney. Republicans have to get at least 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to remain viable long term. If Romney will end up losing this election the next Republican viable contender would be Marco Rubio and hopefully he will manage to gain within the Republican for party for a pragmatic immigration reform.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here is Romney position on immigration. http://www.mittromney.com/issues/immigration

    • easternimm
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      that sounds OK to me. I am a legal immigrant myself of many years. I don’t think that the Republican position on the DREAM act was wise. It gave the upper hand to Obama who was able o keep the appearance of being pro-Hispanic. And it cost the Rep ticket a percentage or two that could prove invaluable in this tight race.

      • easternimm
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

        plus we are not going to kick those kids out, they are American already…

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

        I hear you, but I am more of a law-and-order person. I don’t want to reward people for breaking the law.

    • Svigor
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Amnesty is a horrible idea. How dooming yourself to political obscurity via demographic change is some great Master Plan is beyond me.

      • Svigor
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

        A reliable enforcement mechanism and draconian punishments against businesses that hire illegals is the way to go. No need for a wall, it would just prevent all the suddenly unemployable criminal infiltrators from going home (an”American citizen” anchor baby under each arm) anyway.

    • easternimm
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am all for law and order, too. I went through the loops to get my immigration status and I don’t like people jumping the line. but here we are talking about changing the immigration law. a bad law must be obeyed until it is changed. also a bad law is tough to enforce. these people have broken the law because life pushed them there. nobody leaves their native land because of malice. they run from poverty, corruption, oppresion. most of them worked their assess off for a pittance to take care of their families. they did not qualify for handouts, neither could they they get fake disability. they have payed. some of them died trying to cross the border into the Promised Land. I think they should have a chance to pay/earn their way into the light. yes, they have broken the law. we should punish them somehow, but every day of life in the shadows is punishment in and of itself. watching your kid grow with the specter of deportation over thei head every day is not nice. so have them pay back taxes and/or a naturalization fee, create a legislation that allows immigrants and/or guest workers to come in work and earn their place, secure the borders and lets move on with our lives. the pilgrims were not asked for passport when they came here. most of us are immigrants or descendants of immigrants. we have rules and we should stick to them but we should also make them humane. most of immigrants are indiviualists, risk takers, they are budding Republicans at heart. Don’t let the Democrats turn them into entitlement seekers. be smart.

  3. JGS
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, re-posting this from another thread, tell me where I’ve got this wrong and why we should not be cautiously optimistic (bearing in mind the Harry Reid/SEIU fraud factor):

    Here’s what I see, through yesterday.

    http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500

    Statewide, and combining results of early voting and absentee voting, a total of 235,514 D ballots have been returned, vs. a total of 200,678 R ballots, for a difference of 34,836. A total of 96,872 “Other” (independent) ballots have been returned, and if NV polling data suggesting that Romney is getting 60% of independents is at all accurate, it would stand to reason that he would have 19,374 more votes from those “Other” ballots (20% of 96,872) than Obama, thereby narrowing the margin further to 15,462. If Romney gets 10% of D ballots, and Obama gets 5% of R ballots (neither outside the realm of possibility), that would mean that Romney gets an additional 23,551 votes from the D ballots, Obama gets an additional 10,034 votes from the R ballots, for a net difference in favor of Romney of an additional 13,517 votes, thereby further narrowing the margin (on these assumptions) from 15,462 down to 1,945. That puts a lot of pressure on the next few days of early voting and absentee ballots, as well as turnout of R/D/I voters on election day.

    • AC
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you for your analysis!

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That paints a rosier picture!

  4. stuckinmass
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New PPP Ohio poll. Obama +5, D+9 Independents with a 45/45 split. Are they just making it up now? I couldn’t even make their numbers add up in my spreadsheet.

    • damien
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if 45 percent of voters are dems…ya they are making it up…but the concern trolls are falling for it…or want us to believe they are falling for it

      • stuckinmass
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        There’s all these questions about why the National and State polls tell different stories. THIS is why. Junk polls like this are given equal weight to the others.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      also says 33% have voted already, the
      http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

      site says it’s about 21% as of today, with another 8% or so outstanding in absentee ballots. Not sure if people who haven’t returned an absentee ballot are considered to have voted already.

  5. JGS
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And remember, this nutty poll from Gravis Marketing had Romney up 35 points with Independents (and not just 20). It also had each side winning 9% of the others’ voters, however.

    http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-marketing-nevada-presidential.html

    • stuckinmass
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So their likely voter screen is just asking the respondent if they are likely to vote? And of course nearly everyone says yes!

  6. Haus
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Glad to see us using this data

  7. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    JGS is absolutely right

  8. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New National Journal poll shows Obama up 50-45 nationally.

    • easternimm
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      that is ridiculous… it moved the RCP average to even…

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

        It has been a horrible polling day for Romney. :(. That and Christie throwing him under the bus. I hope we don’t forget what Christie has done.

      • Kevin Paradine
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

        The RCP average is over. The Democrats are gaming it with in-kind contributions from their media allies. It says nothing at all anymore. It was great stuff when it was under the radar.

      • easternimm
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

        this should energize the Republicans. at this point the game it is played mostly on turnout. I do not thing these fake polls would help Dems turnout. And I hope the Reps know better than to be taken by cheap shots like this…

      • John
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

        Yes, RCP averages may be worthless now but they still are what all the pundits reference constantly. This will give appearance of air coming out of Romney’s balloon and deflate enthusiasm for those who follow such things (likely by design). I know my confidence has been deflated today but no matter because I voted a week ago. It’s Nov 6th turnout we need to worry about.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

        im not getting all this vitriol over Christie? He didn’t do anything wrong. He is the governor of his state. It is his job to work for what is best in his state. Obama did his job and signed disaster declarations quickly so that aid and resources could be opened up. This isn’t about politics this is about millions of people’s lives upended, some destroy and some ended. The Governor and the President are doing their jobs. It is okay and proper to give credit where it is due.

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

        Christie let himself become and Obama pawn. Even Bloomberg didn’t fall for that. Christie could have thanked Obama and been polite without fawning over him and then dissing Romney on Fox.

      • AC
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

        What did Christie say about Romney on Fox?

      • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No internals, but if a D+8 sample produces a 5 point Obama lead, he’s toast.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      saying, what he said which was the right answer, that he doesnt care about elections at the time of a major disaster is right in line with what Rudy said after 9-11. That was not a dis on Romney. That was stating the fact, politics is all fun and games but when the shiz hits the fan the bottom line is you are running for a job and right now the job is responding to millions of Americans in deep water, literally.

      He is not a pawn. He is a governor. Were democrat mayors pawns to Bobby Jindal when they praised him for his quick response to the BP Spill? no that is their job.

      but if we have to talk politics here…look at it like this. After the storm that hit florida earlier this year and the governor turned down stimulus money and railed against bailouts, Obama REFUSED to sign a disaster declaration for the state, meaning the state has to pay for everything, find their own way, etc. Christie was acting very prudently here in 1) being above politics 2) giving Obama no line to say Republicans are politicizing and 3) DOING HIS JOB as governor and 4) protecting his large backside as he is up for re-election in next November.

      • easternimm
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        spot on! actually I think Christies’s take on the issue will help Republican brand in the eyes of independents. he behaved like a professional – puting his duty above his personal feelings or political views. go Christie!

  9. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Those are crazy splits on the National Journal poll. It is pretty depressing to see all these polls come out today showing Obama in the lead. It is hard to believe there is this groundswell for Obama, but who knows.

  10. JGS
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If there were such a groundswell, you wouldn’t have independents breaking for Romney even in these favorable (for Obama) polls, and Axelrod making comments essentially acknowledging that O is going to lose the independent vote.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, its hard to imagine Obama losing independents by double digits and still winning. But I can’t imagine why these polling firms would be throwing themselves under the bus to sacrifice themselves for Obama.

  11. Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One piece of good news. I think R/R has a great chance of winning Colorado.

    http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21897135/colorado-republicans-lead-democrats-early-voting-1-1

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Most of these polls coming out now – showing Obama leads, are garbage. Dont be in the slightest bit concerned about them. The trend lines are clear, the early voting is encouraging, it looks great for R&R. These left wing pollsters will do their level best to prop up the Obama Campaign it is what they do best and expected, a number of us predicted this recently. It is the final throw of the dice for them, they are in the tank for Obama and they are going down with the ship!

      Someone already mentioned this but it deserves to be mentioned again – if they can only get Obama leads with D+8 polls etc. and the independents are breaking for Romney. Obama is heading for a disaster.

  12. Glen
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    According to RNC Political Director, Rick Wiley, we are going quite well in Nevada based on four metrics. 1.) Improving on Clark Co. performance, 2.) Being poised to win Washoe Co. 3.) Improving turnout in rural Nevada and 4.) Leading with independent voters. I hope he is right and not just spinning.

    http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/the-littlest-big-early-vote-advantage-in-the-world/

    • TheTorch
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nevada is going to be tough. The Democratic machine there is formidable. Nevertheless, the Romney ground game is clearly looking good and they are minding the gap in the early voting, but they will need to do better. Still encouraging, and I hope Romney can take it.

    • Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Even if Romney is behind at this point, pushing for every vote helps the down ticket races, including U.S. Senate seat and half of the state’s Congressional delegation.

  13. tim
    Posted October 31, 2012 at 4:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here is a little analysis to give us some hope that accurate polling with be reflected next Monday. If you look at the 8 Ohio polls 1 week prior, 5 had Kerry up by 1,2,3,4,6 and two had Bush up 2,4. However, the last 7 final Ohio polls prior to election have the following Bush up by .9,2,2,2,3,4,4 and one had Kerry up +4 on only 1 of the final 8 polls. What does this indicate:

    1 week before: 2004 RCP average: Kerry + 3.22
    1 day before: 2004 RCP average: Bush +2.55
    Final Results:

    *****You are looking at a 5 point flip in one week.

    1 week before: 2012 RCP average Obama + 2.6
    1 day before 2012 RCP average

    In Summary, in 2004, when the election hinged on Ohio, 7/8 had polls number inaccurate prior to election. However, the final RCP average flipped an amazing 5 points toward Bush.

    Note: The only poll firm that was the same 1 week before and the day before was Rassmusen and he had Bush +2…..So, based on this, let’s relax until we know final numbers.

    Tim

    • mchlgregg
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Great work Tim! I can’t wait to see the “flip” in the polls!

      • John
        Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

        I doubt we’ll see it this election. The MSM and pollsters they buy this garbage from have too much emotion invested in Obama. They literally worship him. I think the best we can hope for is total/utter shock on election night and Wed morning as the Tea Party comes out of hiding and causes a wave election like 1980 and 2010. The pollsers are going down with the Obama ship.

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted October 31, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Great analysis, I stole this to educate some of my less fortunate liberal friends…thanks!

    • Rick
      Posted November 1, 2012 at 6:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      State polling for this election seems to be all over the map. I wonder if one of the backstories of the 2012 election will be the inaccuracy of polling in the era of low response rates and increasing use of cell phones.

      The last significant polled election was the Scott Walker recall in June. Late polls in Wisconsin during that race favored a tight outcome with a 3 to 5% margin of victory for Walker. Polling outliers varied from 0 to 12%. Pundits and pollsters were shocked when the final tally had the Walker margin of victory at 7% (which was nailed by Marquette). The race was over one hour after the polls closed!!

      The “unexpected” landslide was due to an “unforeseen” high Republican GOTV effort. I think that the Walker recall race was the trial run for this election. Lessons learned and field-tested during that race are now being used by the Republican party on a nationwide level.

      Don’t be surprised if pundits and pollsters are shocked again on November 7th.

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