The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Mitt Romney with a clear lead over President Obama in Florida, 51 to 46. Romney leads among Independents by a whopping 13-points and clears the important 50% threshold:
Mitt Romney has taken his biggest lead of the year in Florida and now outpaces President Obama by five points in the key swing state following Tuesday night’s debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to Obama’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. Florida now moves from a Toss-Up to Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Last week, Romney held a slightly narrower 51% to 47% lead. Prior to that time, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April. Ninety-five percent (95%) of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are certain to vote in this year’s election. Among these voters, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 47%. Florida allows early voting, and among voters who have already voted, Romney’s ahead 51% to 45%. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
| For President | Percent |
| Barack Obama | 46 |
| Mitt Romney | 51 |
| Other | 1 |
| Undecided | 2 |
Battleground Watch 
30 Comments
It’s a wrap!!! Got to give a lot of credit to Suffolk polls. Now I just want to see Obama squirm and pull out of here and North Carolina.
How about a national poll with 47% Democrat in RDI…. well, that get’s a 3% Obama lead!
Click to access National_tables_corrected.pdf
Wow. On Florida. Moving to Likely instead of lean.
In your Uconn poll. Look at the 2008 vote tab. Romney picking up more Obama voters…but interestingly enough – look at the “didn’t vote in 2008” – especially since that may include mostly young voters – that should give a good measure of where the intensity is.
Yea, I noticed that wackiness.
Out of 75 campaign rallies this year for Obama, 28 of them have been at Colleges. Seems like even more of a ratio lately. They are not into Obama and he’s trying hard.
I saw that this morning and two questions came to mind….1) In what universe would any NATIONAL election have 1 party make up nearly 50% of the voters. I know we are a split 50/50 country but that is just stupid. COnsidering the largest Democrat turnout in moder history was what 39%?
2) WHY does RCP include such ridiculous polls like this in the average?
Romney has mitt-mentum on his side. Leading 5 in FL today, prob will win it larger than that. This again points to Romney with 350+ electoral votes. Wave bye bye to obama.
PPP finds Romney up +1 in New Hampshire.
NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
PPP daily tracking shows Obama going up 1, 48-47. Romney leads by 5 w/ indys and O underwater w/ approval at 46-50. Sample is D+4.
I saw the other day. I actually think NH is R+1 or +2….but indy is about 50%
Gallup back to 6 points 51-45
Gallup ticks down one – now 51-45. I can live with that! ABC and Hartford are jokes.
Gravis has Romney up 2 too, the lead continues.
Finally:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/330966/obama-s-independent-problem-josh-jordan
Excellent link. Yet more proof Romney will win. Why all the national polls including Rasmussen go so overboard to dems is something I can’t understand. This is going to be a Romney mini-landslide.
I think we may see things go back and forth with these national polls by a point or two. I think BO’s performance at the second debate firmed up some soft support for him for the moment. I expect a slew of Wash Post type polls with BO +3 around a D+7/8.
Just read Rass summary on FL – the fat lady as song, taken a shower, had a quick snack and is on her way to OH.
Obama saying “Romnesia” is the equivalent to Bush 41’s “Bozo’s” quip.
This puts a nice perspective on the early voting in Ohio. http://moelane.com/2012/10/19/66926/
Liking this report out of NH: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/10/on-the-ground-in-southern-new-hampshire.php
I can vouch for a lot of Romney signs in Southern NH. I am in Boston. Lots of ads here too, as they reach Southern NH. Ads are on the money for independents too.
PPP finds Obama leading 49-48 in Iowa.
REALLY great state polling day for Romney, whatever will Nate Silver do now?
AND PPP finds R up 1 in NH. I guess he really is in the lead there. Lovin’ it!
Nate is going to continue tweaking his pathetic formulas to keep O in the lead. Will he have the same stroke Matthews is going to have election night?
Does Rasmussen use different party ID weights nationally as opposed to his state polls? I am not see how he can have Romney winning florida and New Hampshire, good Iowa numbers but the race so close nationally.
This polling shiz is killing me.
As for Nate Silver…I suspect that if things keep showing a trend toward Romney you will see a major shift in his number just before election day so he can try and say he was right all along. But I dunno maybe he is some genius but this late in the game with everyone talking super trend toward Romney that he still has 70% Obama wins seems odd, so vert odd. I could see 60 but not 70 percent
I know, that Nate has Romney at 25% chance of winning today. It is just not true.
I was reading I think Jay Sevrin or something like that. He said people get hung up on these polls too much. He said 99% of these polls are crap, they are cheap and inefficient. He said the only polls that truly matter are ones the public will never see…The average poll done by Gallup or Marist run a couple to a few hundred bucks a month to subscribe to. Where the INTERNALS the campaigns do for their eyes only run upwards of a $1 million a month and they truly show the campaign what is REALLY going on. His take on doing politics for 40 years was watch teh movement of the candidates…..iei if Iowa or Nevada are lost causes they wont spend money there. If you see a candidate jump into another state all of a sudden something has happened in their polls good or bad (think Obama in Minnesota or Romney if he jumps to Penn)
Shane yes. It is to the pont there only 9% actually submit to an interview by a pollster. Barone did an article on it and he contends that a lot of the tea party, conservative, lbertarian types are ducking the sample. It makes sense if you think about it that only 9% does not accurately represent the 100% even if you adjust for DRI. I would think that liberals would be much more likely to submit to an interview while a libertarian small gov type would be like “leave me alone”. I think this election will be more R than 2010 was which was even. I just don’t think election day actual votes will match the polls even the night before.
Nate Silver and the professors from University of Colorado both can’t be right….I am honestly shocked by how Silver extrapolates his #’s. Apparently Gallup & Ras hold little water with him yet PPP & Marist are sacrosanct.
i wont pretend to know his whole routine. But what I gather is he takes polls from what he considers reputable polling houses. Tweaks their weights, etc to fix their “house effect”, bias, etc. Then he plugs it into an algorhythm that takes into account national economic data and “items on the ground” in each state…such as unemployment, voter registration totals, demographics, etc. And out pops his numbers.
I am with you I get that gallup, rasmussen, etc are pretty much nothing to him. That things like voter enthusiasm, etc are not factored in, etc Just simply total Dems, Total Repubs and based on how they have historically voted.
Statistics are great. But again if people like him and his statistical breakdowns were so dead on…they would be making MILLIONS working for every pro sports team, businesses, etc…not predicing elections every two years. I dunno he will either turn out to be some sort of rainman genius or a freakin joke in 18 days.
Thanks for the breakdown Shane. I also noticed that he has Colorado & Virginia in Obama’s column despite RCP showing a Romney lead or trending to a lead. Would almost make you think that the NYT is biased(sarcasm font).
something I learned just now is he apparently doesn’t fiddle with the methodology. He created it and started it running when Romney and Obama were set. And he won’t change it until the election is over. So whatever or however he created it, he is riding it out until the end to see its accuracy. He has stated that he wished he could change it to make it more responsive to quick change events like the Clinton bump at the convention, the debates, if there were say a large terrorist attack, etc. But he hasnt because he wants it to be a linear comparison of the whole campaign