David Yepsen: “Romney Is Closing” In Iowa

Real Clear Politics put together the transcript of a great segment on Fox News yesterday:

David Yepsen, former Des Moines Register reporter and current director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, discusses the state of the race in Iowa.

“I think Obama is very narrowly ahead, and Romney is closing,” Yepsen says. “I say that for a lot of reasons, but the big one is the Republicans are doing a far better job on absentee ballots than they’ve ever done before. Democrats have always done a very good job with that, and so, I think that’s the reason why you can say Romney’s closing. This race feels a lot like 2000, 2004. Gore won by about four votes per precinct. President Bush in 2004 won by about 10 votes per precinct. So, this is really about the ground game now. All this TV is just muzak now. It’s not having much impact. It’s all about who’s going to get out the last few people to go vote.”

7 Comments

  1. damien
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Now everyone knows obama is up 9 in iowa….how could keith post this fairy tale stuff…..Marist and nbc are never wrong

    • Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Busted!

    • Posted October 19, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      damien, I hope you still get to see this, from an Iowan living in the most liberal part of the state, Johnson County. I get grief over my grill causing global warming and nonsense like that. I say, as winter encroaches some global warming might…but I digress. Here’s what I wanted to say, even in Johnson County where I have lived, worked and visited since I was a freshman in college in 1984, even here, there are Romney posters and signs. And if they are here, then Iowa is in play. Marist used Code Pink to make calls in both Iowa and Wisconsin and they had an incredibly strong, one might say unbelievable, Obama surge. Given what I see around this area, Romney may win a few precincts. That is how serious this is. And if Romney can pull 40% or more in Iowa City/Coralville/North Liberty area, he will take the state easily. Granted my “polling” has all the veracity of code pink, I count signs as I jog, but I think it will come down to ground game on election day and no mistakes on the way to that day.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Battleground states’ prelim unemployment rates thru Sept: CO 8.0%, FL 8.7%, IA 5.2%, NV 11.8%, NH 5.7%, NC 9.6%, OH 7.0%, VA 5.9%, WI 7.3%

    That’s another sign of how tough Iowa is going to be to flip. But, as your post points out, the absentee ballots are a good place to start. Still, Colorado is much more fertile land for Romney to flip to get the 1 beyond Ohio.

    Nevada should be too, did you see the Luntz video? That seemed disastrous for Obama. The polls are very difficult to get right in Nevada. We may be surprised in that state.

    But on Iowa, though it should, given it’s historical vote, go Romney, I think the combination of Romney not having very good luck in the state, having ran as a very conservative there twice (think of all those ads he aired), the Obama campaign flooding it with negative ads, Obama having very good luck in the state, and federal grants flooding the state, along with a better early voting record for Democrats, and a much lower than average unemployment rate…. in short, I am thinking that if Iowa flips, than Ohio and Wisconsin already have too.

    • Todd
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in Ohio and I don’t see anybody celebrating 7% unemployment. Worth noting that most states below the national average are also under a Republican governor as well.

  3. Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Got to remember a good portion of Iowa are farmers and other agricultural areas. They are hit hard by Obama’s EPA regulations, Obamacare requirements, gas prices, etc.

  4. Jim
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 4:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    The evangelical and conservative Catholic turnout will be huge this year and that will help Romney everywhere in the Midwest and in IA.

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