I can feel it coming back again, like a rolling thunder chasing the wind:
With one week to go, states that were once considered Obama strongholds now look less solid. Republican groups are putting resources into Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Team Obama brushes off these incursions as wishful thinking by Republicans, but noticeably they are putting money and muscle into both states. Minnesota has been added to Bill Clinton’s schedule. And, Obama campaign officials admitted that they will once again start running ads in Pennsylvania.
So, what is happening in Minnesota? Demographics. As our ABC/Washington Post poll has shown, Romney has a substantial lead among white men. Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the country with 90 percent of the electorate in 2008 made of white voters. In other Midwestern states with small minority populations, like Iowa and Wisconsin, the Obama campaign has flooded the airwaves for months with anti-Romney ads. They have done nothing of the sort in Minnesota.
Moreover, the airwaves in states like Ohio and Virginia are already heavily saturated. The ground game is the name of the game now in those places. That means that SuperPAC’s with lots of money can get a better return on their investment on the airwaves in places like Pennsylvania and Minnesota than in the eight battleground states where the campaigns have been most heavily engaged.
Battleground Watch 
110 Comments
IIRC doesn’t Minn also have a gay marriage initiative on its ballot?
Gay marriage and Voter ID; the national house races are also very heated so the rural areas will come out in full force. Rural in MN doesn’t necessarily translate to Rep votes but my guess is this will be a huge turnout for both sides. One thing to be aware of is the huge libertarian/Ron Paul movement that happened here. Many might waste their vote on Gary Johnson…unfortunately.
So much for Nate Silver and his ilk…. and all the nay-sayers who doubted you, Keith.
Here’s how the media is covering the campaign right now:
“Obama Focuses on Sandy, Not Election”
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/hurricane-politics-obama-election-care/story?id=17589847#.UI7xEGdcWwc
Don’t underestimate the power of this storm. Romney may be completely shoved aside while the media gives nothing but fawning coverage to Obama.
NewsFlash, Washington D.C.- President doing his job. film at 11.
Not sure Sandy hurts any candidate but those who are getting smashed by this storm
The media will fawn and drool all-over Obama. They will make it like he is the greatest president ever. You know how the media destroyed GWB during Katrina. Bush begged the Democrat Gov. and the Democrat Mayor to allow the Fed. Government to send help to evacuate people and to allow supplies before the storm. They didn’t want his help. Matter of a fact the LA Constitution won’t allow the Feds to come in without the state’s permission. All of that got glossed over and the media blamed Bush for everything. They loved showing black people trapped and being mistreated by the Bush Admin. which wasn’t true but all of the media made it so. It destroyed any legacy the man had. It makes me sick. Just like the financial crisis in 2008 wasn’t Bush’s fault. He went before congress for 2 years while the Democrats controlled it and begged for reforms on Wall Street but could not get anything done because Democrats stonewalled. Democrats are the very reason the regulations were lax. It started way back during Clinton with Repulicans help passing laws to enable anyone and everybody to get loans they didn’t qualify for. Then when the fallout occured, blame Bush. The media didn’t dare go back in history and tell the whole story because it was another way to destroy Bush once and for all. Now they do anything to destroy Romney, even using a deadly storm to do so. All of it makes me sick. Also, read an article today about how Obama Care was pushed through to unionize over 21 million healthcare workers. If it’s not overturned it will made into a union tool for the Democrats. People better wake up before it’s too late. If this storm gets Obama reelected then we are much worse shape than I thought. He was completely absent in Benghazi. They is a theory as to why but I won’t go into at this time. Maybe a kidnapping gone wrong, wanted to swoop in and look like the ulitimate diplomat!
Well, let me play the contrarian for a bit. In the Cleveland area, they are expecting very high winds w/ gusts to 70 mph this evening. If that impacts early voting for a few days due to power failures and uprooted trees, Sandy may end up helping Romney as people’s worries shift from the election to patching roofs and getting back to normal. Psychologically, it could “reset” the race in E. Ohio as people are sobered by the strom and take a second look at Romney in NE Ohio. This is all highly speculative, of course.
I had this discussion with someone who is worried. I said that Obama may be all concerned and wave his hands or whatever. The man, woman, college grad or whomever that does not have a job – still is unemployed after the storm blows through. Gas will still be high. Companies will not be hiring. The majority of Americans are sick of Obama and his creepy children of the corn/hitler youth zombie campaign ads.
News Flash; Washington D.C. – President is just looking like he’s doing his job 8 days from an election.
When Texas, Oklahoma, Montana and other western states had massive fires, Obama didn’t do his job. Only when there was a massive forest fire in Colorado did he get up off of his skinny behind and do something, since it’s a swing state.
My, my, my, my, my….
who cares what the media says about the storm and Obama doing such a great job sitting there rather than campaigning like he did after our consulate was destroyed…
most people have seen obama on their televisions for 5 years now- nearly every day. the one downside to his over exposure media love fest is he is the most seen president in history. you really think another few days of the media showing him on our screens is going to change things after 4 state of the unions, national addresses, calling the NCAA tournament, football games, basketball games, radio interviews with every disc jockey in america?
better to have the storm wipe out the libs october surprise. how is that “romney war on women” campaign working for the libs now?!
safe or lean…it is still Obama’s state at this point.
Still makes me nervous that they are moving into these oddity states while Ohio’s polls almost ALL show Obama leading….I cannot tell if this is desperately trying to find another route to 270, whether their internals show these as icing or if it is a head fake to get Obama off his last minute game.
Conventional wisdom is 1) challengers don’t try hail mary’s if the straight up the gut shot is still a much much more valuable option (ie win Ohio) and 2) incumbents in safe territory don’t take bait and throw money to expensive solid states and take their eye off the ball.
hmmmm….grocery list for Tuesday night is champagne and whiskey….bubbly for celebrating, whiskey for drowning 🙂
They have raised so much money they may as well dump it into these other states. I don’t think it is even possible for them to buy more commercials in Ohio at this point.
You could buy print ads and billboards.
my sense is.. if you want to look for an alternate route, MN wouldnt be the first choice. there are othe states that can get him to 270 that should be more obtainable
making MN look competative has got to cause dem panic. That was supposed to be a safe state for Obama
It’s the analogy of cooking. If you’re so focused on the pot you’re watching and stiring and timing, the other pots on the stove can burn. Obama has assumed MN, PA, etc are so safe that he hasn’t done anything to monitor them. Now they are “burning”.
With Romney now +2 in Ohio Rasmussen has updated his electoral forecast as Romney 279 Obama 243 with Wisconsin and Iowa unallocated (still tied). If they were to both go for Romney (very possible) it would end up 295-243. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rasmussen-romney-279-obama-243_658100.html
How does Ras have ME-CD2? I have R 296 Obama 242
MN has two initiatives. Gay marriage and Voter ID. It could get very interesting. I know of a good number of 2008 Obama voters who will vote RR this election.
ABC poll is +6 democrat which is a joke. I would like it better at dem +2. So that’s a lie. Anyhow libya will give romney cover over the last days. He is fine. Anyhow the storm is wreaking havok on Dem portions of virginia.. So who has more to lose. Also the hurricane is effecting dem portions of PA.
Actually, I believe it is +7 today, +6 yesterday.
Reporting from Killadelphia now, the hurricane will be wreaking havoc across the WHOLE state…last prediction model I saw had it drifting nearly to Pittsburgh before turning north…no early vote here, so no impact with that, not sure whether any candidate stands to meaningfully/materialy gain much from the storm…there are compelling arguments for both sides.
The biggest poll news today is Ed Goeas/Battleground Poll has projected that Romney will win 52-47. His projection track record is pretty remarkable.
What the EV prediction?
It’s the Battleground Poll. Topline has Obama +1 but see the memo that goes with it – last pgh: http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/goeasbattlegroundmemooct28.html
“In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.”
I don’t think the almighty likes Obama he is an abomination. He is an abomination that causes muteness.
I really fear that Obama and his political entourage will use the storm as an excuse to postpone the election. This president has no respect for the Constitution.
He doesn’t have the power, and if he tried he would lose any chance of re-election.
the storm is not good here
Tomorrow’s Obama Campaign angle….”Free Puppies and Kittens for everyone in my 2nd term” <<< they will be of course taken from rich people who have too many puppies and kittens.
LOL. I’m honestly surprised he hasn’t tried something ridiculous like this. I think it’s more the people who work under him that are flailing – he knows he has lost, he *acts* defeated but they don’t want to lose their jobs.
~ Brittany
Well, they wouldn’t be live kittens and puppies, because, of course, everyone knows that rich people make coats out of puppies and kittens.
Does Minnesota get a sidebar now here Keith? 😉
Not yet, but it’s getting closer . . .
LOL. That is pretty funny
The problem is that many of you assume MN was a “safe” Obama state to begin with. It’s really not true. It’s been considered a swing state for quite some time now. It shifted back Dem last time more but that was their year (08). Romney’s not faking MN, he’s trying to win it. And seriously, enough with the “worries” about Ohio… Rasmussen has a Mitt lead there now, and pretty much everyone else has a tie, which is essentially a Mitt lead. Even the realclearpolitics guy told Hugh Hewitt Romney has a slight advantage in Ohio, even if their own site’s numbers aren’t showing it. http://www.hughhewitt.com/transcripts.aspx?id=3ae1bb4f-76c0-4f0e-bbb2-ddf4e9cf089a
Honestly, ABC is behind the game with MN. It should be tossup not leans O.
MN hasn’t gone R since 1972, so it’s not a traditional swing state.
It’s been considered battleground for awhile though. That’s why we had the convention in ’08, because of how close it was in ’04.
I don’t remember all the specifics, but I’ve read a few articles about how Minnesota has been gradually trending Republican. I think maybe the partisan split or the vote percentages barely budged from before despite the big Dem/Obama wave… I could be wrong about that. But there has been reason to believe it could flip soon.
The electorate isn’t going to be anywhere close to D+5 or anything like that. NOT EVEN CLOSE my friends.
Gallup has it at R+1. (October numbers)
Pew has it EVEN turnout. (October numbers)
Rasmussen has it R+2.6 (as of September)
Any national poll showing D+3 or high is very suspect.
Now there’s your October surprise!
I predict that this election will be R+4.4…..I compared the 04, 06, 08, 10 elections actual results to the average for that year in the Ras ID and republicans outperformed this average by almost 2 points in each election. I think it has been shifting steadily even since 2010 which was even. We will know soon enough!!!!
Makes me think of this…
Very encouraging news… is the blow out on the horizon (fingers crossed!). The Battle Ground poll is certainly where I am expecting this race to go, it makes sense with the trend lines at the moment.
I would like to make a prediction that Nate Silver 1 or 2 days before the election will tweak his model to show an even race, or a Romney win. He knows whats happening, he just can’t demoralise the base!
Silver doesn’t have it in him. He’s too much of a leftie to admit he is wrong. After the Romney mini-landslide, Silver will have several excuses blaming everything except his precious model.
Well I just think he will want to save some credibility, so I reckon that is what he will do, but we’ll find out soon!
He’s already out there in an article claiming that if he’s wrong, it’s due to bias in state polls. As if, he isn’t supposed to be the super duper weighter of all averages, right? Isn’t he supposed to be the grand filter?
Nate Silver will have his own entry in the encyclopedia, right next to tulip mania.
But with lefties, even with his complete failure he will be hailed by fellow lefties and given a promotion.
Yes, they will say, well of course he was right; he said that Romney had a 1 in three chance of winning and he won that one! LOL
90% chance that Nate Silver will be very wrong
99.9% chance that Nate Silver will be wrong
The Battleground poll actually has Obama up 1 point. ABC/Wapo now has Obama reaching 49% also, so there may be some movement his way now. The “projection” of Romney winning by five points seems to be nothing more than Ed Goeas’ spin on how it could go.
They have D+7 model built in Wapost/ABC model
Ed Goeas spin? Ed Goeas has been projecting election results based on **his** model before Nate Silver was even in diapers.His published predictions go back to 1992, and he was “on the money”, down to the percentage point in every election since 1992, except 2008 (still got the winner right), and 2000, when he was off by a point.
Ed Goeas is very good. He screwed up in 2008 by not sticking with Celinda Lake. Celinda nailed it on the money pretty much. I wonder if she’ll split this time. iirc, they didn’t split in ’04
He’s just going to say that the polls were wrong and not his model.
The problem is that his model is based on faulty polls. The polls are always wrong. That’s the dirty little secret. They over-estimated Democratic strength in 4 of the past 5 elections (2002, 2004, 2006, 2010). They were only right in 2008, and there’s a perfectly logical explanation for that.
In 2008, Republicans were very unenthusiastic for all the reasons you already know. Most media polling includes a lot of people in their pool of likely voters who aren’t going to vote. Most of the time these non-voters are heavily Democrat. In 2008, a lot of Republicans were also included in the pools of likely voters even though they weren’t going to vote. Normally, the polls over-sample Democrats by adding extra Democrats who won’t vote. In 2008, they added extra Democrats like usual and also extra Republicans who weren’t voting. The two mistakes canceled each other out leading to fairly accurate polls, although if you look at 2008 polls you’ll notice that they were still all over the map depending on the specific poll.
Media-run polls are usually done with very poor likely voter screens because those screens are very expensive to implement. So, when a media (or most universities) run poll says that it is a likely voter poll, you can’t take that at face value. Dig into the numbers. Find out how many registered voters were interviewed and how many likely voters were interviewed. Divide the number of LV by the number of RV to get a percentage of what they are projecting the turnout rate to be among Registered voters.
Turnout was 70% among registered voters in 2008. In previous elections it’s been slightly lower than this but always in the 65-70% range. If a poll is projecting higher turnout rates of 80-something percent or 90-something percent, then it’s not a likely voter poll. It’s some sort of hybrid poll between RV/LV. If the turnout rate is lower, then it’s more accurate. If it’s higher, then it’s less accurate. The normal difference between a LV poll and a RV poll is about 5%. LV polls favor Republicans by about 5% in other words.
So, a media poll will be at most about 5% favoring the Democrat, depending on the turnout rate in the poll. Most I’ve seen favor the Democrat around 3-4%.
So, it’s not a coincidence that polling in 2002 was off by 5% favoring the Democratic candidates on the House generic ballot and off by 3% favoring Kerry in 2004. They were also wrong in 2006 and 2010, although they did improve right before the election in 2010, but they still were off even then.
They aren’t biased towards Democrats on purpose. They get really offended by that accusation. The problem is that screening for likely voters and doing it well is expensive, so it’s not done except for by a select few pollsters. The problem really lies in the fact that most non-voters are Democrats, except for in 2008 when non-voters were pretty equally divided.
Some very valid points there. I also agree, that if you have polls which over-estimate democratic strength then in 08 they were going to be right!
The polling this cycle reminds me the most of ’02. The Democrats are rolling out all the partisan hack polls by their consultants to keep up a straight face to the day of the election.
House Effect. There is no greater House Effect evident than what PPP has polled. Go through the battleground states, taking out the partisan pollsters, and they are way outside the average for D-R split of leading.
thank you! ive been looking for a decent explaination of Dem oversampling that didn’t involve conspiracy theory. My next question is why Dems oversample. Young voters?
LOL
Well it is getting better and better. I have now read that Ross Perot will be appearing at a Campaign Rally for Romney-Ryan in Minnesota! Now that guy could bring in a few votes!
Cue Peter to claim that ABC is now a biased tool of the Right, along with Gallup, Ras, Suffolk, Mason-Dixon, etc, etc……
I trust you mean our good friend Peter Palco. LOL. I wish Palco would drop by Ace of Spades for a visit or two and see how he fares with the morons.
Gallup says 15% of registered voters have already voted and Romney leads in that group 52-45.
“October 29, 2012
In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots
Early voting highest in the West and among seniors; similar by party ID
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ — Fifteen percent of registered voters nationwide have already cast their ballots in this year’s election, according to Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending Oct. 28. That is up sharply from 5% a week earlier. The overall percentage either having already voted or planning to vote before Election Day has also increased — to 33%, from roughly 25% in each of the prior three weeks.”
“Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx
The Battleground poll on which Goeas made his 52-47 projection says Obama is winning the early voters by 8. Can’t both be right.
True, but Gallup has been in the polling business longer, and generally interviews more people than other pollsters. I rely most heavily on Rasmussen Reports and Gallup, most of the time, although I think Battleground Poll is also pretty good. The smaller the pool, such as only those who say they’ve already voted, the less reliable the poll results, of course.
Devastating news for Obams if true. But havent Axelrod and other Democratic so called experts been saying justt the opposite? That Obama has been winning the early vote?
As I’ve been telling people on the politics board at IMDb for two years, and the people at 538 for many months, and others, take Gallup and Rasmussen Reports polls seriously, and most other polls with a grain of salt. I average their two tracking polls together to get an idea of how things stand. It’s worked well for me in the past. I don’t see why it won’t work well for me now.
Early voting in Colorado is being reported by Redstate as decidedly in Romney’s column. I want Ohio but if we also open the back door to victory I’d be thrilled
Looking at today’s Pew numbers, I expect them to make a final projection of 51-48 in favor of Romney… unless the storm completely upends the race before next week.
Pew says this is their final poll, so probably the last we’ll hear from them until the election…I am worried sick about the storm, and from what i can see in the snatches of television that I watch, the press coverage of Obama is as fawning as I feared it would be. That just has to have some kind of impact, doesn’t it?
I was hoping for 47. That would be such a priceless number.
I expect the next crash will be at Intrade, once the Gallup news about early voting makes its way to the gamblers there.
Crash will likely only happen at Intrade when Nate Silver changes his model. A lot of intraders, rely on Nate Silver’s model, which is why there is such a disparity between intrade and other betting agencies.
Nate can’t change his model much, at this point. It’s too late. I’ve been telling him and Sam Wang for months they are way out in left field. They wouldn’t listen. Sam is saving a post of mine for November 7th so he can laugh at me. I’ll have the laugh instead.
I happen to think that gamblers, in general, must be more liberal. I remember that in 2004, Bush had better polling numbers than Obama has now, and Tradesports was giving him little more than 52% of winning throughout most of the campaign.
The problem with political betting is that is is important to leave your bias out of it, otherwise you will end up losing badly. It is much better to troll through all the polling good and bad and work out the trends, also take into consideration other factors, like quality of campaign ads, and a campaign in general etc. and then place your bets, with a degree of confidence.
But to gamble money, by relying on one persons model, who also happens to be a biased, is a recipe for disaster.
I’m a gambler, and I’m not liberal. Not conservative, either. I bet based on facts, including history and past performance, and I don’t bet on what I want to happen, just on what I believe will happen.
and thats why you are likely win, that is the smart way to do it. As rush would say Right on!
I learned long ago to be coldly calculating when it comes to gambling.
Keith, I’m very happy that your blog is receiving the attention that it is today. But that is just all the more reason to fix your numbers for Clark County. You have discrepancies in every single day’s counts except for the 20th. Most of them are minor but your discrepancy from yesterday was over 800 votes in the “others” category. It is definitely an error on your part too because the numbers you list for Dems, Reps, and Others total to more than the number of entries in the data file.
Awesome, I was looking back and see that you replied to a previous post. Sorry that I didn’t see it before I posted the previous comment but I’m glad you found the problem. Thanks for looking into it.
If Obama pulls it out, I hope people don’t conclude Silver was “right.” He’s just another pundit who is masking his predictions in the snake oil pit of statistics “lies, damned lies and statistics”
I wouldnt be concerned about that I think Silver is going down with Obama, and PPP with them!
Even if they admit Silver was wrong, it will not change their perception of a Romney victory. They will still dismiss it as the stupidity of the masses, voter fraud and/or a failure on their part to properly package and present liberalism. You will never get any true respect from them, only mild concessions that allow them to save face and continue to believe they are better than everyone else outside of their political persuasion.
Silver recently said that if he suddenly switched Ohio to 100% Romney, Obama would still be up by 57%
ok, any guesses on the unemployment rate number on friday???
I am hearing 7.9. I will make a prediction though, It will either be the same or higher, but it definitely wont be 8, even if it is LOL. But something tells me they wont pull the same stunt they did last time to lower the figure, because it back fired spectacularly!
Where r you hearing that? Or is that your feeling or guess?
I think it was Fox Business that suggested this.
I’m a guy who is a “glass half full” type of person, but after they pulled the 7.8 out of the air with the household survey, I’m thinking I’m ok with waiting for the #…
couple economists i have heard talking on the shows (left leaning) expect 100-135K new jobs and rate to jump back to 8%
thanks Torch, anyone else?
Have no idea. I thought last month’s numbers were cooked, so it is hard to actually predict. I think the true number is 8.1%
LOL, I just saw an article titled “Nate Silver: One-Term celebrity?”… I’m all for that! 🙂
LOL
ILLINOIS could be next.
The President is polling under 50% in his home state. (Although still 13pp ahead)
http://paulsimoninstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=583%3A091512-simon-center-releases-poll-results&catid=67%3Anews-articles&Itemid=62
I actually think Romney could have won here the Governor almost went GOP last year. GOP lost by 3000 votes I believe. With no push here, it seems Obama will win.
20% undecided with a week to go makes me extremely dubious about this poll.
Also Chicago Suburban Paper endorses Romney (endorsed Obama in 2008)
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/28/TIDAL-WAVE-Chicago-Daily-Herald-Endorses-Mitt-Romney
What Sandy does is offer an excuse for not covering Romney’s momentum or Benghazi. Right now most pundits on the left can’t deal with the painful truths of how badly this race is shaping up for them or how far Obama has actually fallen as a leader. Sandy helps them get through their day by offering them something big and legitimate to talk about. Next will come reports on the power outages, damages, cleanups, etc. The last thing the media wants to focus on is the election at this point. By the end of the week reality will set in. Then will come the recriminations. Those long faces you see on television right now–Brian Williams, Diane Sawyer, etc.–only look as if they’re upset because of Sandy. In truth they’re hiding deeply-felt political wounds that won’t heal quickly, if ever.
Hate to sound cynical but Im pretty sure that Obama and his political advisors are disappointed that Sandy did not materialize. to be quite the destructive storm that many were predicting. This storm just doesnt provide the type of 9/11 moment that would so benefit Obama as to fundamentally change the dynamics of the race
Sandy’s story is only half over. Will be massive flooding in Pennsylavania and upstate NY because it will move very slowly over the next 3 days.
Not to mention the blizzard in West Virginia.
Just to expand on Ron’s point of Sandy being a distraction, we all need to be on the lookout for the White House to put through any kind of bad news they’ve been holding off on making public. This is the perfect time for them to release something devastating to the Obama campaign because the news networks are talking about Sandy 24/7, so they know it would slip through the cracks.
~ Brittany
Well the expected bad jobs report due out on Friday is now supposed to be released after the election. So much for the BLS being an objective non political government department.
Here’s my take on the jobs report if you are the administration:
1) report a bad (>8%) number and it is the nail in the coffin
2) report a good number and everybody brushes it off because they think they are cooking the numbers, esp if another mystery state is omitted like last time
Lose, Lose situation
No report maybe the most neutral
They would have to revise the numbers to account not including California but I wouldnt be surprised if a good numbet comes out even if it raiseseven more eyebrows.
A key factor will be the damage to the Philadelphia region. If power outages, displacement and infrastructure challenges remain significant for the next week or so, it could be devestating (combined with low democrat enthusiasm pre-storm) to the get out the vote effort the democats rely on to carry the state. Combine this with a late Romney ad surge and the state could very well turn red.
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