Romney Momentum in All Six Bus Tour States

Republican National Committee Political Director, Rick Wiley, sent out a memo outlining the advantages Republicans have in each of the states Romney visited on his bus tour –all states Obama won in 2008. I tried to edit out as much of the partisan rhetoric while keeping the very good data. Here is his state by state breakdown:

New Hampshire

• According to the most recent Granite State Poll, 59 percent of independents disapprove of the president’s job performance. Only 36 percent approve. That’s a steep fall from Obama’s 9-point margin of victory in 2008.
• In 2010, Republican Kelly Ayotte won a U.S. Senate seat with an impressive 60-37 margin over a sitting congressman, holding the seat for the GOP. Republicans picked up both U.S. House seats and flipped both the State House and State Senate.

Pennsylvania

• In 2008, Obama won with an 11-point margin. According to a Quinnipiac poll earlier this month. Forty-nine percent disapprove, compared to 46 percent who approve. Among independents, 53 percent disapprove, while 44 percent approve.
• In 2010, the GOP picked up a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, four U.S. House seats, and the State House.
• In this year’s Democrat primary, over 30 percent of voters in 27 Pennsylvania counties left the presidential portion of the ballot blank. They refused to vote for President Obama–a clear sign of the lack of enthusiasm for the president among his own partisans.
• Voters believe Gov. Romney would do a better job on the economy than President Obama by a 49-41 margin and the economy is issue number one.

Ohio

• This month’s Purple Strategies Poll found that 52 percent of Ohio voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance, and 62 percent believe the country is on the wrong track. Having won Ohio with only 51 percent of the vote in 2008, that’s enough to send Chicago into a panic.
• In 2010, the GOP swept all statewide offices, picked up the governorship, held an open U.S. Senate seat, and picked up five U.S. House seats.
• In 2011, Ohio overwhelmingly rejected ObamaCare, the president’s signature legislation, when voters in all 88 counties approved an anti-ObamaCare ballot measure.
• Coal state voters have abandoned Obama throughout the 2012 primaries. Ohio will likely do the same on Election Day: In Kentucky, 42 percent voted for “uncommitted.” In West Virginia, 41 percent voted for a convicted felon.

Wisconsin

• In the recent recall vote, Gov. Scott Walker defeated Democrat Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin and turned out over 200,000 more Republicans than in 2010.
• Walker increased his 2010 vote total in all 72 counties.
• During the recall, the RNC made 4.5 million volunteer voter contacts and knocked on over 250,000 doors.
• President Obama carried Wisconsin by 13 points in 2008, but in a sign of the times, he literally flew over the state to avoid Wisconsin’s changed landscape in the final days of a crucial recall, five months from the general election.
• DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz called the recall a “dry run” for November and said “the president deployed his entire machinery” to the Badger State.
• In 2010, the GOP picked up a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, two U.S. House seats, and the state legislature.
• In a December video, campaign manager Jim Messina classified Wisconsin as a “baseline” state they would hold. But now in his most recent video, he had to admit it was a toss-up.
• A Rasmussen poll taken this month shows Gov. Romney leading the president 47 to 44.

Iowa

• For the first time in six years, more voters are registered as Republicans than as Democrats.
• NBC News/Marist Poll reports 54 percent of Iowa voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
• Among independents, only 36 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.
• A plurality of voters trusts Mitt Romney to do a better job on the economy and the national debt.
• Among voters who are very enthusiastic about the election, 51 percent support Romney; only 43 support Obama.
• In 2008, Obama won Iowa by 9 percentage points and won 56 percent of independent voters.

Michigan

• In 2008, the Obama won Michigan by 16 points.
• In 2010, Republicans picked up the governorship and two U.S. House seats, while also winning the Attorney General and Secretary of State races.
• This month, polls show Gov. Romney leading President Obama 46 to 45. Among independents, Gov. Romney is winning 45 to 34.
• Fifty-eight percent of voters rate the president’s job performance as “poor” or “just fair,” according to the Democrat-leaning EPIC/MRA Poll.
• Only 41 percent give positive marks.
• Among independents, a whopping 72 percent hold a negative view.
• A mere 27 percent approve of the job President Obama’s doing.