Tag Archives: voter ID

What Voter Suppression?

John Fund, a true expert on voter fraud, nails the voter suppression efforts of Obama acolytes:

“It looks like a lot of tea-party groups were less active or never got off the ground because of the IRS actions,” Wisconsin governor Scott Walker told me. “Sure seems like people were discouraged by it.”

Indeed, several conservative groups I talked with said they were directly impacted by having their non-profit status delayed by either IRS inaction or burdensome and intrusive questioning. At least two donors told me they didn’t contribute to True the Vote, a group formed to combat voter fraud, because after three years of waiting the group still didn’t have its status granted at the time of the 2012 election. (While many of the targeted tea-party groups were seeking to become 501(c)(4)s, donations to which are not tax-deductible, True the Vote sought to become a 501(c)(3).) This week, True the Vote sued the IRS in federal court, asking a judge to enjoin the agency from targeting anyone in the future.

Cleta Mitchell, True the Vote’s lawyer, says we’ll never know just how much political activity was curtailed by the IRS targeting. She has one client who wanted to promote reading of the Constitution, but who didn’t even hear back from the IRS for three years – until last Monday, when the IRS informed this client that some questions would be sent.

The Post-Motems Continue to Roll In

The exit polling data around election day has a notoriously wide margin of error, so as the “final” data comes rolling in, most notably through the Current Population Survey, more accurate inferences can be drawn from an election it is still hard to fathom that Barack Obama won.  This AP news write-up draws more of the same conclusions many of us already know: white people stayed home, african-americans voted in droves, wash, rinse, repeat:

America’s blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.

Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.

Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year’s heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November’s exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

The Battlegrounds:

Romney would have erased Obama’s nearly 5 million-vote victory margin and narrowly won the popular vote if voters had turned out as they did in 2004, according to Frey’s analysis. Then, white turnout was slightly higher and black voting lower.

More significantly, the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado would have tipped in favor of Romney, handing him the presidency if the outcome of other states remained the same.

The Bush Tax Cuts Popularity Unchanged (if not more popular) Since 2004

In the incredibly pro-Democrat poll below showing a Democrat over-representation by 11 percentage points, the “Bush tax cuts” are negligibly less popular than they were when the voter ID was perfectly even in 2004 (Question 30 in the survey).

According to the NBC/WSJ survey 4 percent fewer find the tax cuts better for the economy while 2 percent more find the tax cuts worse for the nation’s economy. To state the obvious, in a poll where Democrats are over-represented by 11 percentage points, a net six-point swing means absolutely nothing for those arguing for repealing the “Bush tax cuts”. Expect the GOP to further dig their heels in on the Democrats attempts to raise taxes in an election year, even on only the top few percent of tax payers:

Do you think the tax cuts originally passed by George W. Bush’s administration have been good for the nation’s economy, bad for the nation’s economy, or have they made no difference?

2012 2004
Good for nation’s economy 37 Good for nation’s economy 41
Bad for nation’s economy 34 Bad for nation’s economy 32
Made no difference 24 Made no difference 25
Not sure 5 Not sure 3

Romney Campaign Eyes Pennsylvania

We’ve talked about Pennsylvania as a state that is a heavy lean for Obama within the Battleground state universe. And evidence of limited media buys in the state lead some to question the level of commitment by the Romney campaign towards the state.  However, the state is ripe with opportunity for Romney and as the AP story below reveals: “June is [the Romney PA campaign’s] big growth month.” That’s a good thing too because plenty of 2008 Obama voters are having second thoughts this time around:

Candi Ludwig is the face of Mitt Romney’s hopes in Pennsylvania…Ludwig, a registered Republican and mother of two teenagers, voted for Obama in 2008 when he won Pennsylvania by more than 10 percentage points. But now she has misgivings. “I really expected him to make changes,” she said as she ate lunch last week with her husband, Jim, at an outlet mall in Gettysburg. “But he didn’t. He disappointed me.” Such sentiments are prompting Romney and his allies to pour money into this large state even though Republican presidential nominees have lost here five straight times despite substantial efforts. Some independent analysts say the same result is likely this year, even if few expect Obama to repeat his double-digit victory.

Romney doesn’t even have to win Pennsylvania to make it a worthwhile venture:

But if Republicans can make Obama sweat and scrape for Pennsylvania, it will consume resources he otherwise could use in crucial states such as Florida and Ohio. It also might demoralize Democrats and assure Romney’s fans everywhere that the former Massachusetts governor has a solid chance to win the White House. Pennsylvania “is still an uphill climb for Romney,” but “conditions are nowhere near as advantageous for the president as they were in ’08,” says Christopher Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa. From Obama’s standpoint, Borick said, “there are a lot of little nagging issues.”

Momentum is with the Republicans in Pennsylvania:

In the 2010 midterm election … Republicans gained full control of the state Legislature and won the governor’s race.

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