Tag Archives: Purple Strategies

Battleground State Polls: Romney +1 in Florida vs Obama +3 in Colorado, +4 in Ohio, +3 in Virginia — Purple Strategies

The latest from Purple Strategies is up and as always, tons of data for poll junkies.  We’ve blogged their last three releases and this one is a good result for Obama.  The only caveat is Purple strategies uses 12 states as their battlegrounds and 2 are pretty solidly Obama states (Minnesota and New Mexico).  So this will skew the top-line numbers a little Obama ‘s way.  Regardless, Romney-Ryan was leading in the previous survey and now they are trailing.  And the individual state breakdowns are also good news for Team Obama:

  • Obama holds a 5-point lead across the 12 Purple States (49% to 44%), reversing a 1-point lead for Romney-Ryan 1 month ago
  • President Obama now leads among independents across the 12 Purple states
  • This important sizable 5-point spread unsurprisingly mirrors his overall advantage
  • This is the first time lead for Obama among independents across the 12 Purple States in 7 months
  • Silver lining for Romney: 14% of voters say they are either undecided (6%) or open to changing their mind (8%)

Colorado (Obama +3):

  • Obama currently leads 48% to 45%, the same margin he had in the last poll
  • His vote total is down a point, as is Romney’s
  • The gender gap is smaller in this state than elsewhere. Obama leads among men by 1 point, and among women by 5 – a gap of just 4 points

Florida (Romney +1):

  • Romney holds on to a slim 48% to 47% lead in the state, which has tracked toward Obama over the last few months
  • The change is driven by independents, among whom President Obama has a 10-point margin, 52% to 42%

Ohio (Obama +4):

  • Ohio has been one of the more volatile states in our polling, with the lead changing hands almost monthly
  • Obama now leads the state 48% to 44%, despite continuing to trail among independents by 10 points
  • Obama’s strength lies in a more consolidated base, with 90% of Democrats supporting him, compared to 82% of Republicans favoring Romney

Virginia (Obama +3):

  • Virginia remains a key state for both campaigns, and has swung between the two candidates in Purple Strategies polling
  •  Today, Obama leads 46% to 43%, a reversal of Romney’s 3-point lead last month

The economy

  • 34% say the economy is getting better, 5-point improvement from August
  • Forty percent (40%) say it is getting worse (25% staying the same)

Voter perception of performance on the economy is the single greatest predictor of the vote:

  • Among those who say the economy is improving, Obama leads 94% to 4%
  • Among those who say it is getting worse, Romney leads, 86% to 8%
  • The improved (though still low) perception of the economy plays an important explanatory role in the improved performance seen for President Obama across the Purple Poll

Job Approval

  • At 47% job approval, Obama’s rating is as high as it has ever been in the PurplePoll (tied with June and April)
  • Obama continues to struggle to reach 50%, a level which would indicate stronger electoral position
  • Romney still has an opportunity to gain ground

 

Battleground State Polls: Romney-Ryan Ohio +3, Virginia +3, Florida +1, Colorado -3 — Purple Strategies

The latest Purple Strategies poll has plenty to chew on again.  We’ve blogged their last two polls and they consistently show a tight race with voters’ views edging slightly Romney’s way for the first time.  Today’s results include the Ryan bounce putting Romney into the lead for the first time in this poll and shaking up the volatile Battleground state polling that is a hallmark of Purple Strategies. Romney leads in Ohio +3, Virginia +3, Florida +1 and trails in Colorado -3. Highlights in this poll include:

  • Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden by 1 percentage point 47 to 46, up 3 from last month’s survey
  • Romney-Ryan lead with independents by 11%, up from a 5-point lead last month

Battleground state breakdowns:

  • Ohio: Super volatile Ohio now has Romney-Ryan with a 2-point lead 46 to 44
  • Previous three polls in Ohio resulted in: Obama +3 (July), Romney +3 (June), Obama +5 (April)
  • Virginia: Romney-Ryan lead by three 48 to 45, up 5 points
  • Florida: Romney-Ryan lead by one point 48 to 47, down 2 points
  • Colorado: Obama-Biden lead by three 49 to 46, up 2 points

Job approval and favorability

  • Obama’s job approval remains really bad at 43% approve versus 51% disapprove — that’s major November loss type ratings
  • State-by-state job approval (net +/-): Ohio (-10), Virginia (-10), Florida (-10), Colorado (-3)
  • Ryan is the most liked of all the candidates with a positive favorability ratio of 45 Favorable/39 Unfavorable (Independents like him 46/37)
  • Joe Biden’s favorability ratio is 41% favorable versus 48% unfavorable
  • Top of the ticket favorability shows a bump for Romney at 45/48 (or -3) up from his -8 last month; Obama favorability is 47/49 or -2

Big picture issues

  • Direction of the economy: Getting better 29%, Getting worse 44%, Staying the same 25%, Not sure 2%
  • Best plan for the economy: Romney-Ryan lead by 3 percentage points 46 to 43
  • Will bring real change to Washington: Romney-Ryan lead by 6 percentage points 46 to 40 — stealing Obama’s thunder/theme
  • Will protect medicare: Obama-Biden lead by 8 percentage points 48 to 40
  • Note: On protecting medicare, Florida has the campaigns virtually tied at 45 to 44 for Obama-Biden

How Obama is Losing in a Poll Where He Leads by +2 — Purple Strategies

Purple Strategies had another Battleground state polling release today with plenty of juicy details that basically says after a $100 million dollar scorched earth campaign of slash and burn from Barack Obama, he can’t pull away from Romney — and that’s the good news for Obama.

When we first heard from Purple Strategies on June 7, Barack Obama was up +2 points across 12 Battleground states that included North Carolina, New Mexico and Minnesota (but not Michigan). Now after a month of the most aggressive early campaigning in election history (and most of it negative ads against Romney) we find President Barack Obama leading by  …. +2 points, within the margin of error. Considering Obama likely has double digit leads in two states included in the overall results (Minnesota and New Mexico), this +2 point lead is HUGELY bad news for Obama. this doesn’t even mention that Pennsylvania averages a +7.8% lead for Obama. The bottom line: Romney can lose all three of those states and still comfortably win the election, Barack Obama cannot.

Takeaways from today’s release:

  • Barack Obama leads across the 12 purple states 47 – 45 with 8% undecided, this is flat from June by down from a 4 point lead in April
  • Obama leads by +1 in Colorado (down 1 from June), by +2 in Virginia (down 1 from June) and by +3 in Ohio (up 6 from June) — all within the margin of error +/- 4
  • Note: Ohio has been all over the map in these polls. April has Obama +5, June had Romney +3 and July has Obama +3
  • Romney leads by +3 in Florida (down 1 from June)
  • Obama overall job approval/disapproval is -3 (46 to 49)
  • State specific job approval is also negative: -6 in Colorado, -5 in Virginia, -3 in Ohio and -9 in Florida; It is also meaningfully negative in each region polled except when including Minnesota
  • Romney retains a 5-point lead among Independents (47% to 42%), essentially unchanged from his 6-point lead in June
  • The gender gap also continues: Romney leads by 8 points among men (50% to 42%), while Obama leads by 11 among women (52% to 41%)
  • 28% of voters believe that the economy is getting better, a decline of 8 points from April. Forty-two percent (42%) believe that the economy is getting worse, up 7 points from April
  • Voters’ perception of the economy on their presidential choice is now more predictive of vote choice than any other question we ask – including partisanship

NOTE: Purple Strategies does individual polling only for the four states mentioned: Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia.

The Battle for Colorado

The Denver Post looks at what is going on with Colorado‘s new found prominence as a Battleground:

Several dynamics this year make the Centennial State even more competitive [than 2008]— and critical to winning the White House. Unlike 2008 there are fewer states this time around that are truly up for grabs. Obama and Mitt Romney are eyeing Colorado’s nine electoral votes — in combination with other Western states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona — to give them the win. The campaigns use a combination of history, demographics and polling to determine which states are solidly or leaning red or blue and which states are considered tossups. From there, it’s a matter of doing the math — finding ways to combine victories in winnable states to get the candidate to 270 electoral votes, the total needed to win the presidency.

Polls show the race is a dead heat:

A poll of 600 Coloradans by Purple Strategies found 48 percent favored Obama and 46 percent favored Romney. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters showed both candidates with 45 percent, while 6 percent preferred another candidate and 5 percent were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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Romney Leads in Ohio and Florida — 2012 Purple Poll

Consistent with the theme of this blog, the folks over at Purple Strategies, identified 12 “purple” states they believe will decide this year’s election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Although with today’s Michigan poll showing Romney leading 46-45, maybe they need to add one more “purple” state.

That said, today Purple Strategies released a comprehensive poll of “purple states” revealing a number of hugely important insights. Although the headline result shows a +2 point lead for President Obama, a look at the included “purple” states sees both Minnesota and Pennsylvania included among their survey.  While I very much would like Minnesota to be a Battleground and knowledgeable Democrats argue persuasively that Pennsylvania is “in play,” the reality is right now Barack Obama has an averaged double digit lead in both states so today they are likely Blue states within the Battleground context.  Their inclusion in these polls dramatically swings the aggregate polling numbers far in favor of Obama meaning his +2 point lead is not as comforting to his campaign as you might think.  Mitt Romney can comfortably win the election without either of these states while Barack Obama cannot. At the same time, without the combination of Ohio and Florida, the difficulty in Obama’s path to victory increases dramatically.  He could lose one, but not both.  This is why my headline focuses on Romney’s lead in those two Battleground states.

As for the treasure trove of data, here goes:

  • Barack Obama leads across the 12 purple states 48 – 46 with 7% undecided, this is down from a 4 point lead in April
  • Obama leads in Colorado (+2, up 1pt from April) and Virginia (+3, up 1); Romney almost certainly needs to win one of these to clear 270
  • Romney leads in Ohio (+3 from down -5 in April) and Florida (+4, up 2)
  • Romney’s aggregate vote total is his highest since they began tracking in September of 2011
  • Obama leads Romney among women by 9 points, down from 11 in April
  • In no state or region is Obama above 50% in preference or in job approval

NOTE: Purple Strategies does individual polling only for the four states mentioned: Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia.  It would have been incredibly helpful to see the individual state performance if for no other reason than to back out Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The other “purple” states were clustered together into four regional 3-state groupings.  Three of the regions were within the margin of error and one region that included Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa showed a commanding lead for Obama at 54-38. If you back out that one region, Romney probably leads the other 9 swing states in aggregate by 3.

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