Tag Archives: Philadelphia suburbs

Obama +6 in Pennsylvania, Still Below 50% — Philadelphia Inquirer

President Obama holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney 49 to 43 with 7% Undecided in the latest Inquirer Pennsylvania poll.  Despite the lead it is curious that President Obama can’t crack 50% in the survey evidencing all lot of weakness underneath that top-line lead.  In  an infographic provided by the paper, tells why it is such an uphill battle for Romney.  In a 5-county subset Obama is viewed favorably 65 to 32 while Mitt Romney’s favorables are under-water at 38 to 58.  And in that 5-county area President Obama leads 58 to 35. Obama also leads with Independents 56 to 35. These are all tough margins to swallow for the Romney crowd although questions on the size of this subset are warranted. Results of the Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll are based on live telephone interviews with 600 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25, and subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.  If they only polled 600 statewide, that doesn’t leave a lot of “local” voters to carve out and have a representative sample so take today’s results as just one of many snapshots in time. Tomorrow could be very different.  The paper also acknowledges “the poll gives Obama a wider margin than some other Pennsylvania surveys. The website RealClearPolitics puts Obama’s average lead in recent polls here at 4.8 percent.” I would be very curious how this poll was run because the Inquirer says it used a “team of pollsters” which begs all sorts of questions on methodology.

President Obama holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll with just over nine full days of campaigning left for the Republican nominee to make a play for the state. Obama was the choice of 49 percent of likely voters, to 43 percent who backed Romney in the survey conducted for the newspaper by a bipartisan team of pollsters. The new numbers came out as one Republican group made a television ad buy on Friday that might signal a last-minute Romney push in Pennsylvania. The poll’s margin represents a net swing of two percentage points in Romney’s favor since the last Inquirer survey, which found the president ahead 50 percent to 42 percent in the first week of October.

On Friday, one Republican group signaled it might launch an ad blitz in an effort to push Pennsylvania into Romney’s column. The group Americans for Job Security reserved at least $454,150 worth of airtime on Philadelphia broadcast stations and more than $200,000 worth of time on cable channels in the market, according to Federal Communications Commission reports and political sources that track ad spending. That time could be used for spots aimed at attacking Obama or boosting Romney. Americans for Job Security had mostly supported GOP congressional candidates around the country, until it threw itself into the presidential race in late September with an initial swing-state buy of $8.7 million.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 43
Undecided 7

Michael Barone Sees a Suburban Swing Towards Romney

Michael Barone has his usual smart take on the election with a great little nugget for why Romney is closing strong in Pennsylvania and Michigan but isn’t seeing the comparable moves in Ohio:

Barack Obama’s campaign spent huge sums on anti-Romney ads to create a firewall in three states that the president won narrowly in 2008 — Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But post-debate polling shows Romney ahead in Florida and tied in Virginia. National Journal’s Major Garrett reported last week that Obama strategist David Plouffe omitted Florida and Virginia in a list of key states but mentioned Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Obama carried the latter three by ten, ten, and twelve points respectively in 2008. So much for the firewall. In addition, polling shows Romney ahead in Colorado, which Obama carried by nine points last time, and the race closing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which Obama carried by 14, 10, and 16 points respectively.

That tends to validate my alternative scenario that Mitt Romney would fare much better in affluent suburbs than have the previous Republican nominees since 1992, and would run more like George Bush did in 1988. The only way Pennsylvania and Michigan can be close is if Obama’s support in affluent Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs has melted away. This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls. Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.

A pro-Romney swing among the affluent is confirmed by the internals of some national polls. The 2008 exit poll showed Obama narrowly carrying voters with incomes over $75,000. Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown affluent suburbanite Romney carrying them by statistically significant margins. In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney since October 3. He surely had them in mind in the foreign-policy debate when he kept emphasizing his hopes for peace and pledged no more wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Romney Campaign Eyes Pennsylvania

We’ve talked about Pennsylvania as a state that is a heavy lean for Obama within the Battleground state universe. And evidence of limited media buys in the state lead some to question the level of commitment by the Romney campaign towards the state.  However, the state is ripe with opportunity for Romney and as the AP story below reveals: “June is [the Romney PA campaign’s] big growth month.” That’s a good thing too because plenty of 2008 Obama voters are having second thoughts this time around:

Candi Ludwig is the face of Mitt Romney’s hopes in Pennsylvania…Ludwig, a registered Republican and mother of two teenagers, voted for Obama in 2008 when he won Pennsylvania by more than 10 percentage points. But now she has misgivings. “I really expected him to make changes,” she said as she ate lunch last week with her husband, Jim, at an outlet mall in Gettysburg. “But he didn’t. He disappointed me.” Such sentiments are prompting Romney and his allies to pour money into this large state even though Republican presidential nominees have lost here five straight times despite substantial efforts. Some independent analysts say the same result is likely this year, even if few expect Obama to repeat his double-digit victory.

Romney doesn’t even have to win Pennsylvania to make it a worthwhile venture:

But if Republicans can make Obama sweat and scrape for Pennsylvania, it will consume resources he otherwise could use in crucial states such as Florida and Ohio. It also might demoralize Democrats and assure Romney’s fans everywhere that the former Massachusetts governor has a solid chance to win the White House. Pennsylvania “is still an uphill climb for Romney,” but “conditions are nowhere near as advantageous for the president as they were in ’08,” says Christopher Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa. From Obama’s standpoint, Borick said, “there are a lot of little nagging issues.”

Momentum is with the Republicans in Pennsylvania:

In the 2010 midterm election … Republicans gained full control of the state Legislature and won the governor’s race.

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