The just released Pew Research poll showing Mitt Romney up 4-points has the political blogosphere and twitterverse (can we get one name for the two?) up in arms over the party identification of respondents which was R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5). But is that any more correct than the D +7 or D +10 samples we on the Right have indignantly complained about all election cycle? We have asked this question before and have seen detailed analysis of the trends and historical data which on average has been D +3 since 1980.
But what struck me in the Pew Poll was the party identification is oddly similar to the current Rasmussen party identification that he releases on a monthly basis. Why do we care how close it is to Rasmussen? Because he nailed the last two elections despite wild swings in the electorate’s preference.
Rasmussen Reports released his party ID for September last week and commenter “blcjr” took the raw data Rasmussen makes available to show you how trends have changed over time from 2004 through today. Below is Rasmussen’s month-end party ID for each October in Presidential years and therefore the result immediately before the actual election. We compared that with the exit polling party ID provided by the Winston Group:
|2004||D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2)||D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)|
|2008||D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3)||D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)|
|2012||(Sep) R +2.6 (Dem 34.2, Rep 36.8)||?????|
In the two prior Presidential election years Rasmussen essentially nailed the party identification and accurately captured the ground swell in favor of Democrats in 2008. Not coincidentally Rasmussen called the 2004 election within 1% and nailed the 2008 election on the nose. If party identification is to Republicans advantaged by near +2.6%, Romney should win overwhelmingly, much like the results we see in today’s Pew Poll with a party identification of R +2.75.
Chart compliments of commenter “blcjr”: