Tag Archives: Oakland County

Seven Battleground Counties to Watch on Election Night

Same original author as the earlier piece (Chris Palko) but an election night spin on each county with few repeats.  This guy does good work. Lots of smart info:

Looking for some shortcuts when it comes to projecting which candidate has the edge Tuesday night? Once returns start coming in, turn your focus to these seven counties—they will be small scale indicators of that state and national results:

Prince William County, VA
Virginia will be one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, and Prince William County is the most important county there. Romney needs to win the county to win Virginia. George W. Bush and Bob McDonnell were able to win the county rather solidly. There has been an influx of immigrants in the past decade, and as a consequence it has a somewhat more Democratic lean than before. This will also be a good check to see if the Romney and Obama campaigns’ assumptions about the demographics of the electorate are correct.

Lake County, OH
This is the closest county in the most important state. Lake County is the eastern suburbs of Cleveland and the best gauge for how the entire state will vote. In 2004, Bush won the county by the same margin as he won the state. Obama ran a bit worse than his state percentages in 2008 but was able to win.  Watching Lake County is the best shortcut for projecting Ohio results on election night.

Bucks County, PA
In the critical suburban Philadelphia area, Chester County is most likely going for Romney and Montgomery and Delaware Counties will go for Obama. The swingiest of them all is Bucks County, north of Philadelphia.  Monday’s Romney rally that garnered some 30,000 supporters was held here for exactly that reason. In 2004, Bucks went for John Kerry by three percentage points, the exact same margin as the rest of the state. It has trended right in the past few years, as Republican Pat Toomey won the county 53 percent to 47 percent in his 2010 Senate race. Romney has to keep the margins close in suburban Philadelphia, and he has to win Bucks to do so.

Jefferson County, CO
In a heavily polarized state, the Denver suburbs hold the balance of power. Jefferson County, along with its suburban neighbors, voted for Bush in 2004 by small margins and then flipped to Obama in 2008. Romney had one of his most memorable campaign rallies at Red Rocks Amphitheater, which is in Jefferson County. Whichever candidate wins this county is going to win Colorado.

Washoe County, NV
The dynamic of Nevada politics is Democratic Clark County against Republican outstate areas, with Reno in the middle. For Romney to win Nevada, he has to win Washoe County. In 2004 and 2008, it matched the state percentages for Bush and Obama. A win here doesn’t guarantee Romney a victory in Nevada, but it is a necessary component.

Racine County, WI
Racine County is slightly more Republican than Wisconsin as a whole. Bush narrowly won it in 2004, while he barely lost the state overall.  Even so, anything more than a narrow Romney victory would augur well for him in a county that is a representative blend of urban, suburban and rural areas. It’s also worth watching due to the potential gains in Southern Wisconsin that could accrue with Paul Ryan, their congressman on the ticket. The potential for adding independents and some Democrats, who have voted for Ryan for years, to the Romney column could be decisive in a close state.

Oakland County, MI
The county that Mitt Romney grew up in is worth watching for a few reasons. First, if Romney wants to pull an upset in Michigan, he must win Oakland County. Second, it is precisely the sort of northern affluent suburb Republicans have had problems with at the presidential level for the past 20 years. Gains here would be indicative of Romney strength in other affluent suburbs in key states and a significant difference between a winning Romney coalition and the previous winning coalition that George W. Bush assembled.

Obama +5 in Michigan — Marketing Resource Group

Michigan has been pretty sleepy on the campaign trail but Romney remains within striking distance:

President Barack Obama is slightly leading challenger Mitt Romney in the latest poll of likely Michigan voters. The Marketing Resource Group poll of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 10 through Friday and given to MLive Media Group, showed the Democratic incumbent and Vice President Joe Biden with 47.5 percent and his Republican rival and running mate Paul Ryan with 42.3 percent. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning Obama had a slight edge. Eight percent were undecided. Obama was up about 6 percentage points the last time the Lansing-based firm polled in March. Paul King, MRG’s director of survey research, said a big concern for Romney is Oakland County, the suburban Detroit swing county where Obama was leading 54 percent to 38 percent. “They seem to be falling in the president’s direction, which is not good news for the Romney campaign,” he said. “If Oakland County goes big for one candidate or another, typically the state of Michigan does the same.”

  • Better off? Respondents were split on whether they are better or worse off than four years ago – a question Romney has been pushing on the campaign trail. Thirty-seven percent said they were better off, 40 percent worse off and 20 percent volunteered that they were doing the same.
  • Economy is king: Asked to name the issue they were most concerned about – they were prompted for two responses – 76 percent said unemployment/layoffs/jobs security and the economy. The only other problem to hit double digits was education funding, at 11 percent.
  • Auto bailout: The federal government’s rescue of the auto industry continued to enjoy significant support in this auto-heavy state. Sixty-one percent said they supported it, and 32 percent opposed it. Obama made the bailout a major theme of the Democratic National Convention since Romney opposed emergency loans for General Motors and Chrysler.
  • Obamacare: The federal health care law evenly split the potential electorate, with 45 percent in favor and 47 percent against. Romney has said he would repeal most of the Affordable Care Act and replace it with something else, while keeping some of the more popular provisions such as letting young adults be covered under their parents’ health insurance.
  • Gender: Though Obama and Romney were about even among male voters (Obama had a 3-percentage point edge), the president enjoyed a 7-point lead with female voters. “We’ve seen a larger difference in past elections,” King said. Romney needs to win over more men to offset women favoring Obama. Women 55 and older have helped Romney narrow the gender gap a bit despite younger women – particularly age 18-34 – backing Obama in droves, King said. [NOTE: in 2008 Obama won men by 7% and women by 22% so Romney is clearly making headway]
For President Percent
Barack Obama 47.5
Mitt Romney 42.3
Gary Johnson 3
Undecided 6

Romney-Ryan Homecoming Rally in Commerce, Michigan Friday (Aug 24) 11:30am

Like we told you earlier today, Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan will host a joint rally in Oakland County, Michigan. The rally is taking the fight to Obama’s turf — he carried this county 57 to 42 in 2008. You’ve seen the crowd photos so RSVP now and get there early!

Romney-Ryan Homecoming Rally in Oakland County

When: August 24, 2012 – 11:30am
Where: Long Family Farm, Orchard & Cider Mill, 1540 East Commerce Rd., Commerce, MI 48382

Victory Rally with Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan & the GOP Team in Michigan.
Doors Open 9:30 AM and the event begins 11:30 AM.
To RSVP and get your ticket, here.

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible.
No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

For Questions, contact us at: TeamMI@mittromney.com or call (248) 270-8354. For Important Campaign Updates: Text (MI) to GOMITT (466488)

The Battle for Michigan

A couple months ago few people put Michigan in the Battleground territory except Mitt Romney, Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS and this blog. Recent polls demonstrate Obama’s narrowing lead and weakness in suburbs raising GOP hopes in the Great Lakes State. The Wall Street Journal takes a look at Michigan ahead of the Romney bus tour visit on Monday:

Barack Obama breezed to victory in Michigan in 2008 and, until recently, his bailout of the state’s auto industry looked to have armored him well for November. But signs of trouble are brewing in the Great Lakes State. If they grow, they would signal broader problems for the president in the industrial Midwest. Across Michigan, but particularly in several key counties that hug Detroit,veteran GOP strategists point to evidence of ebbing support for the president among independents, despite an improving economy egged on by the booming car sector.

Ramping up and hitting the ground running:

Conservative groups from outside the state are now showering Michigan with television ads, at a cost already of around $3 million, about three-quarters of what the campaign of Republican Sen. John McCain spent here during all of 2008. Their aim is to soften the ground for Mr. Obama’s Republican rival, Mitt Romney, whose own campaign is now staffing up in the state. Recent polls vary widely but generally point to a narrowing lead for Mr. Obama.

Risks to Obama:

An Obama loss in Michigan could imperil the president’s path to victory in the Electoral College, potentially requiring him to win one of the two hardest-fought states, Ohio and Florida. Heading into the fall, signs of weakness in the industrial belt also would require the Obama campaign to pour far more manpower and resources than planned into other states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Democrats have held in all of the last five presidential campaigns. “If Barack Obama can’t win Michigan, he can’t win the White House,” said Katie Gage, a longtime Michigan political operative and Mr. Romney’s deputy campaign manager. “We will compete there aggressively.”

Economy out front:

With the election likely to hinge on voter sentiment toward the economy, state job numbers released Friday by the federal government offered a mixed picture of the region’s economic health. Ohio gained 19,000 jobs last month and saw its jobless rate drop to 7.3%. But Michigan lost 5,000 jobs and saw its unemployment rate tick up to 8.5%, slightly higher than the U.S. average. Both the campaign and Michigan GOP lawmakers cite several factors that appear to be giving Mr. Romney a boost. The unemployment rate, which topped 14% in the summer of 2009, has eased markedly under Gov. Rick Snyder, a former-businessman-turned-politician. That has allowed Republicans to argue that voters should trust Mr. Romney, who carries a similar resume.

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