Tag Archives: MSNBC

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVII

MSNBC dishes most of the red meat this week with weekly ad buys.  We don’t have the details for each market but the markets included (and not included) tell a much bigger story.  Look at the week-over-week shift.  Last week had the Romney campaign’s entire 3-2-1 strategy for winning the election: Virginia (2x), Ohio (2x), Florida (2x), Colorado (1x), Iowa (2x) and Wisconsin (1x). This week the front-half of the 3-2-1 strategy carpet bombs Ohio (4x) but thins appreciably after that: no Virginia, Florida down to one market, and it’s the back-half of the 3-2-1 strategy that remains: Colorado (1x), Wisconsin (2x), Iowa (1x) with the expansion to Nevada (1x). This Battleground ad spending shift is a huge win for Romney. As MSNBC writes:

One of the “tells” we told you about MONTHS ago about this battleground map was to keep an eye on October and see where the battle was being waged more intensely. If it was in the New South battleground states of FL/NC and VA more than the Midwest, advantage Obama. Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that’s good news for Romney.

Without the ad points (we asked for them) it’s hard to tell the saturation but MSNBC reported the gross dollar figures which are staggering:

This week alone, more than $58 million is being spent. Obama leads the pack with $20 million spent, but Romney is close at $16.5 million (of course, he is getting less bang for the buck because of when his campaign books ads). With outside groups factored in, Team Romney’s outspending Team Obama this week, $34 million to $24 million.

Regarding the ad points, according to MSNBC:

Romney has more ad points than Obama narrowly in Denver, Mason City, and Orlando.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/15-10/21 Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14
1. Green Bay, WI
2. Denver, CO
3. Cincinnati, OH
4. Columbus, OH
5. Madison, WI
6. Toledo, OH
7. Rochester-Mason City, MN-Austin, IA
8. Cleveland, OH
9. Orlando-Daytona Beach. FL
10. Las Vegas, NV
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)

MSNBC takeaways:
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Four of the top 10 hottest markets this week (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 15-21) are in the Buckeye State. Wisconsin has two, including Green Bay in the top spot. One striking thing about this week’s top markets — no Virginia. Markets like Norfolk, Roanoke, and Richmond have routinely been in the top 10, but they have dropped out to 16, 21, and 22, respectively. The Obama campaign has maintained its levels in Norfolk and Richmond, but cut it in half in Roanoke, from 1,500 points to 795 this week. The Romney campaign, on the other hand, INCREASED its spending in that market. The Obama campaign increased in places like Mason City, IA.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVI

After a one week hiatus (never did get last week’s info from NBC) the weekly top 10 ad markets is back with only one surprise, Green Bay, Wisconsin. If there weren’t any weekly gaps we could have done some really need stuff with this data but alas …

The no brainer states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida dominate the list which comes as no surprise.  We see the campaign focused Battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin being the real stories. This is straight out of Karl Rove’s 3-2-1 strategy he wrote about 5-months ago (Day 2 of this b log!)with 3 being Indiana, North Carolina and Virgina (2 out of 3 done), 2 being Ohio and Florida (obvious priorities through election day) and 1 being Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin (based on this week’s spending).

While Team Romney is making a play for the other states (New Hampshire and Nevada) clearly they see their best chances in the three making today’s list.  The Romney campaign clearly saw concern in Iowa which bolsters the claim that Obama’s unprecedented 3-day commitment in August paid real dividends. No surprise comparatively new American Future Fund is big in Iowa as the conservative organization is headed by ex-GOP Iowa staffers. Additionally the pro-Romney teams are saturating Wisconsin which is a great sign about its potential vulnerability to flipping.  Finally, we see the NRA entering the mix in Norfolk, Virginia which is great since their constituency is both loyal and passionate which should help turnout.   All good signs that everything is on full blast for the final three weeks.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14 Hottest Markets for the week 9/24-9/30
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540, Restore 1480, Romney 940, Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando, FL: Obama 1700, Romney 1240, AJS 890, Crossroads 620, Priorities 250
3. Cleveland, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1500, AJS 710, Priorities 440, Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete, FL: Obama 1710, Romney 1300, AJS 670, Crossroads 480, Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800, Romney 1500, AJS 570, Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: Romney 1500, Obama 1340, AJS 670, Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: Obama 1450, Romney 1440, AJS 730, Crossroads 215, Priorities 200
8. Dayton, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1390, Crossroads 570, AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: Romney 1475, Obama 1360, AJS 490, Crossroads 400, Priorities 230
10. Toledo, OH: Romney 1500/Obama 1110, AJS 680, Crossroads 270, Priorities 330

MSNBC takeaways:

No takeaways provided but away from the top ten, they do write-up an appropriately concerning story about potential ad spending mismanagement.  I’ll be curious to see how this washes out after the election because based on these reports, it really does look like amateur hour:

If Obama ends up winning the presidential contest, it could very well come down to this: Team Obama has a tactical advantage over Team Romney, and that’s especially true when it comes to advertising strategy. Politico has this example: “Voters in Columbus, Ohio, saw 30-second television ads for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney while watching ‘Wheel of Fortune’ on their CBS affiliate over three days in September. For Obama’s team, the order per spot cost $500. For Romney’s, the price tag on the order was more than five times steeper at $2,800 per ad.” What’s going on here? Politico explains, “Romney places his commercials on a week-to-week basis, rather than booking time well in advance, and typically pays more so that his ads don’t get preempted and to spare his campaign the hassle of haggling over time as prices rise.” Folks, this is the equivalent of an NFL team — in terms of tactics and ad-buying strategy — going up against a high school team. And here’s another example we’ve heard: For weeks, the Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on the “Big 10 Network.” Only until recently has the Romney campaign also decided to advertise on the channel, about five weeks AFTER the start of football season. In a close race, the little things matter.

More Proof: MSNBC Caught Doctoring Clip From Romney/Ryan Rally

The first reports I read on this were that Romney was graciously adding Ryan name into the chant of his name.  Later the below video surfaced alleging that the crowd was chanting Ryan and Romney was desperately trying to get the crowd to change their chant to insert his name.  God bless the Internet because I found where I read it first:

Ginger Gibson, originator of the tweet, is National political reporter at POLITICO covering the 2012 election on the trail with Mitt Romney.
Felicia Sonmez, who re-tweeted it, is Political reporter for The Washington Post.

Update: Adding to the list of reporters confirming the chant was “Romney, Romney, Romney” is Kasie Hunt of the Associated Press:

Mckay Coppins picks up on the controversy and writes the following:

BuzzFeed was present at the event, and took note that the crowd was actually chanting Romney’s name, before he encouraged them to add his running mate to the chant.

Coppins also identifies the New York Times write-up of the event confirming the above events and not the doctored video version:

After Mr. Ryan whooped up the crowd in Vandalia on Tuesday, Mr. Romney moved to the front of the stage. As the crowd began chanting “Romney! Romney!” he cut them off.“Wait a second,” Mr. Romney said, instructing the audience to cheer for “Romney-Ryan! Romney-Ryan!” They did.

Here is the doctored video, MSNBC giving it full airing complete with Fredo Scarborough in full defeatist crouch:

Remember the talking heads on TV are not independent people who vote Democrat, they are open advocates for one candidate.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XV

Very disappointed this feature fell by the wayside.  But we are at the mercy of publicly disclosed information and for two weeks during the Convention and then again last week NBC did not publish the data (UPDATE: Props to NBC, Mark Murray says he is shooting me last week’s data.  Big ups to the guy!).  As such we have gaps and the thread in ad buying trends gets harder to piece together.  One thread this that isn’t hard to piece together is the recurring absence of North Carolina. The only reason the state appeared in the top 10 over the last 2 months was due to spending from the Romney campaign to put the state to bed while Team Obama slowly left the state.  The drop is ad dollars every week told us this but since our data lately is sporadic we can only comment that North Carolina is not in the top 10 and won’t be again as evidenced by the recent Obama ad buy leaving North Carolina on the chopping block.

Below, we see Wisconsin resting comfortably in the King’s throne thanks to Obama’s recent visit and also the Milwaukee market bleeds into Paul Ryan’s district. After that we get few surprises:  4 Virginia (DC market in Northern Virginia), 2 Ohio and 2 Florida. That said here is this week’s top 10:

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from September 24-September 30).

Hottest Markets for the week 9/24-9/30 Hottest Markets for the week 9/10-9/16
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540/Restore 1480/Romney 940/Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando, FL: Obama 1700/Romney 1240/AJS 890/Crossroads 620/Priorities 250
3. Cleveland, OH: Romney 1540/Obama 1500/AJS 710/Priorities 440/Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete, FL: Obama 1710/Romney 1300/AJS 670/Crossroads 480/Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800/Romney 1500/AJS 570/Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: Romney 1500/Obama 1340/AJS 670/Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: Obama 1450/Romney 1440/AJS 730/Crossroads 215/Priorities 200
8. Dayton, OH: Romney 1540/Obama 1390/Crossroads 570/AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: Romney 1475/Obama 1360/AJS 490/Crossroads 400/Priorities 230
10. Toledo, OH: Romney 1500/Obama 1110/AJS 680/Crossroads 270/Priorities 330
1.  Columbus, OH (Romney 1200, Obama 800, Priorities 500, American Crossroads 250)
2. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, American Crossroads 270, Priorities 245)
3. Richmond, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, American Crossroads 220, Priorities 180)
4. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1200, Romney 1000, American Crossroads 200, Priorities 100)
5. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1200, Romney 780, Priorities 270, American Crossroads 180)
6. Raleigh, NC (Romney 1200, Obama 880, American Crossroads 365)
7. Tampa, FL (Romney 1000, Obama 880, American Crossroads 250, Priorities 230)
8. Toledo, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 815, American Crossroads 340, Priorities 240)
9. Reno, NV (Romney 980, Obama 845, American Crossroads 545)
10. Las Vegas (Obama 1000, Romney 800, American Crossroads 500)

MSNBC takeaways:

It’s worth noting that Obama’s lead in the current polls comes as the GOP continues to enjoy an ad-spending advantage in the presidential race. This week — from Sept. 24-30 — Team Romney (campaign and outside groups) are outspending Team Obama (campaign and outside groups), $24.4 million to $18.6 million. Last week’s GOP edge was a bit smaller, $22 million to $19.3 million. In the general election to date, more than $650 million has been spent on ads, with Team Romney at $356 million and Team Obama at $308 million.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XIV

We had a hiatus due to the back to back National Conventions and then almost missed this one when all political events were overtaken by the events overseas. But MSNBC remained on top of things with the top 10 markets for ad spending. North Carolina remains in the discussion thanks to Team Romney spending but expect the stealth withdrawl to begin post haste.  Notably Nevada has two representative in the top 10 while Virginia and Ohio remain the top dogs overall.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from September 10-September 16).

Hottest Markets for the week 9/10-9/16 Hottest Markets for the week 8/20-8/26
1.  Columbus, OH (Romney 1200, Obama 800, Priorities 500, American Crossroads 250)
2. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, American Crossroads 270, Priorities 245)
3. Richmond, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, American Crossroads 220, Priorities 180)
4. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1200, Romney 1000, American Crossroads 200, Priorities 100)
5. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1200, Romney 780, Priorities 270, American Crossroads 180)
6. Raleigh, NC (Romney 1200, Obama 880, American Crossroads 365)
7. Tampa, FL (Romney 1000, Obama 880, American Crossroads 250, Priorities 230)
8. Toledo, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 815, American Crossroads 340, Priorities 240)
9. Reno, NV (Romney 980, Obama 845, American Crossroads 545)
10. Las Vegas (Obama 1000, Romney 800, American Crossroads 500)
1. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 870, ROF 700, AFP 550, RNC 200)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1000, ROF 760, Obama 700, AFP 650, RNC 300)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 875, ROF 860, Obama 730, AFP 675, RNC 175)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 950, Romney 700, ROF 600, AFP 550, RNC 225)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 500, AFP 450, RNC 250, Priorities 150)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 630, ROF 630, AFP 500, RNC 200)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 415, AFP 400, RNC 200, Priorities 135)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 725, ROF 450, AFP 400, RNC 130)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 800, ROF 700, AFP 500, Obama 450, RNC 250)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 500, ROF 445, AFP 300, RNC 200, Priorities 120)

MSNBC takeaways:

This week – from Sept. 10-16 –Team Romney (the campaign and outside groups) is outspending Team Obama (campaign and outside groups), $10.7 million to $9.4 million. Here’s the breakdown: Obama camp $7 million, Romney camp $6.9 million, American Crossroads $2.7 million, Priorities USA $2.1 million, Americans for Prosperity $1 million, and SEIU/Priorities $240K. Note: These numbers are a bit smaller than in past weeks because the campaigns pulled down their ads on Sept. 11.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XIII

The weekly top 10 advertising markets from MSNBC shows a few trends.  The last couple of weeks, the Romney campaign has been outspending the Obama campaign by about 2-to-1 and this week is no different, but even worse for the Obama campaign.  By MSNBC estimates, “Team Romney (the campaign, RNC, outside groups) is outspending Team Obama on the airwaves this week by MORE than a 2-to-1 advantage, $26 million to $10 million.” Presidential elections are all-or-nothing contests so with both campaigns likely to reach $1 billion in fundraising, the Romney camp clearly thinks they need to unload the artillery in their war chest now considering Obama did exactly that through June and July. Iowa remains in focus with 3 entrants in the top 10 including the #1 slot with Des Moines. The other states getting some love are unsurprisingly Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. While Charlotte, North Carolina sneaks into the top 10, look at the participants.  Four of the five are pro-Romney and the Obama campaign ad spend is 450 — the lowest for either campaign in ANY top 10 market since we started tracking this three months ago.  I know why, you know why, and the Obama campaign’s lack of ad spending in North Carolina tells you why North Carolina is not a Battleground State. A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from August 20-August 26).

Hottest Markets for the week 8/20-8/26 Hottest Markets for the week 8/13-8/19
1. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 870, ROF 700, AFP 550, RNC 200)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1000, ROF 760, Obama 700, AFP 650, RNC 300)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 875, ROF 860, Obama 730, AFP 675, RNC 175)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 950, Romney 700, ROF 600, AFP 550, RNC 225)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 500, AFP 450, RNC 250, Priorities 150)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 630, ROF 630, AFP 500, RNC 200)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 415, AFP 400, RNC 200, Priorities 135)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 725, ROF 450, AFP 400, RNC 130)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 800, ROF 700, AFP 500, Obama 450, RNC 250)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 500, ROF 445, AFP 300, RNC 200, Priorities 120)
1. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 1000, Obama 790, ROF 675, AFP 630, RNC 215)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 990, Obama 715, ROF 615, AFP 575, RNC 245, Priorities 120)
3. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 840, AFP 550, ROF 475, RNC 200)
4. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 950, AFP 430, ROF 415, RNC 250, Priorities 200)
5. Charlotte, NC (Romney 950, Obama 815, ROF 580, AFP 500, RNC 240, MoveOn.org 20)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Romney 965, Obama 775, Priorities 415, AFP 360, ROF 350, RNC 185)
7. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 960, Romney 830, AFP 550, ROF 490, RNC 200)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 970, AFP 400, ROF 350, RNC 130)
9. Sioux City, IA (Obama 775, Romney 745, AFP 600, ROF 550, RNC 200)
10. Tampa, FL (Obama 850, Romney 775, ROF 500, AFP 500)

MSNBC takeaways:

Team Romney has held the clear advertising edge for the past month and a half. (And it raises the question if this advantage is currently moving the needle and if it can move the needle come the fall.)

Ad spending breakdown for this week (8/20 to 8/26):

  1. Restore Our Future $10.3 million
  2. Obama $9.4 million
  3. Americans for Prosperity $6.8 million
  4. Romney $6.5 million
  5. RNC $2.7 million
  6. Priorities USA $600K.

To date, nearly $540 million has been spent in advertising in this presidential election, with Team Romney spending $292 million and Team Obama $248 million

Quick Hits

Libertarian candidate for President and former Republican Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson stumps in Colorado for legalized marijuana

Maybe state economy improvement compared to then national average isn’t such a big deal after-all

Lies on the campaign trail — Fact-checking both Obama and Romney

Mitt Romney will speak at the annual NAACP convention next month (July 7 – 12) in Houston, Texas

Is it time to start talking about the inevitable demise of the Democratic Party?

Did Mitt Romney’s Wawa remark backfire on MSNBC?

Senator Obama criticized President Bush for “hiding behind” executive privilege before hiding behind executive privilege

Quick Hits

Romney backers fight against a Nevada-like Ron Paul takeover in Iowa state convention

Air Force One causes flight delays in Cincinnati inspiring Delta agent Over PA: “I guess everybody can blame Obama

Ann Romney’s horse is an Olympian–qualifies for U.S. equestrian team

“I thought this, honestly, was one of the least successful speeches I’ve seen Barack Obama give,” said MSNBC political analyst Jonathan Alter

Skip the falsehoods, Mr. President, and give us a plan — Dana Milbank

Even the Washington Post Fact Checker says Obama campaign lying about Romney’s Massachusetts record

The12 has an instagram photo of the Romney bus stalking Obama in Cleveland

What does the drop in support among African-Americans for Obama tell you about North Carolina? It’s not a Battleground

Quick Hits Around the Battleground

Nevada Republicans Work Around State Party — More on the lackluster state party that spawned Team Nevada even before the Ron Paul takeover

Nevada GOP political director seeks to unify Romney, Paul factions — New state head from Utah looking for reconciliation between warring factions within the party

Obama holds onto lead in Pennsylvania — New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Obama with a 12 point lead but support is still below 50% for the President

Colorado ballot measure on marijuana to impact Presidential contest — Both candidates oppose legalization but in a close race, perception for or against one candidate can tip the scales

Ohio Senator Rob Portman and Potential Romney VP Meets Netanyahu, Barak in Israel — Note this is the type of trip Joe Biden took to Russia before getting the nod from Obama

Obama outraised Romney in Virginia in April — Neither candidates total is all that much but it is noteworthy

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, another Potential VP, See Boost for Romney in Wisconsin — McDonnell was on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” talking up the Wisconsin results

Wisconsin now tougher for Obama, but still uphill climb for Romney — 12 hours later the reality settles in that Democrat spin on misleading exit polling doesn’t hold up