Tag Archives: Marquette Law School

Obama +1 in Wisconsin — Marquette Law School Poll

Marquette Law School is expected to release the details of their latest Wisconsin poll showing Barack Obama clinging to a 1-point lead, 49 to 48. This is a dramatic change from their previous poll showing President Obama with an 11-point lead in Wisconsin. The prior poll surveyed voters in late September and was released the day of the first debate. Today’s poll was surveyed ahead of the 2nd debate which means the stellar job Romney did in the first debate likely created some structural shifts in the Wisconsin electorate. The Marquette Law School poll is very well respected in Wisconsin politics and they they nailed the Wisconsin recall election in June when pollsters were all over the map in that hotly contested race.

Romney +4 with Independents:

Partisanship continues to anchor support for both parties. In the presidential race, 97 percent of Republicans support Romney and 96 percent of Democrats support Obama. Independents lean to Romney 49 to 45 percent.

The party ID in today’s survey is  D +1 (Dem 47, Rep 46, Ind 6) versus 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004. The Marquette Law School poll, conducted Oct. 11 through Oct. 14, surveyed 870 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points.  Note: there is a breakdown of the Registered Voters surveyed that is D +5 (Dem 49, Rep 44, Ind 7 ) which is consistent with the trend from 2010 where registered voter polls over-sample Democrat support by 4 percentage points.  Sorry for the confusion to anyone who saw I flipped this at first.

From Wisconsin’s top political reporter, Craig Gilbert:

Candidates Favorable/Unfavorable levels:

  • Obama still holds edge in favorable image, at 52% fav/ 44% unfav. It was 56-41 two wks ago
  • Romney fav/unfav 43/48% now, was 39/53 among all registered voters two weeks earlier.

VP debate reaction from Marquette Law:

  • Before VP debate, Ryan fav/unfav was 46/41. Afterward, it was 50/40.
  • Before VP debate, Biden fav/unfav was 49/41. Afterward, it was 44/47
For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 48
Other
Undecided 2

Obama Running New Ads and Making New Campaign Stops in State He’s Leading by 14 — Marquette Law

That’s what today’s Marquette Law School poll would have you believe. No one credible with a foot on this planet thinks this poll is remotely close to accurate. I’ve complimented Marquette Law before but this is a joke. I’m deeply curious who they surveyed because Obama got a HUGE jump in support from Independents (now +15) which runs contrary to every other state and national poll.

A new Marquette Law School Poll finds … President Barack Obama has seen a large post-convention bump, with voters preferring him to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent. In August Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent… The presidential race saw similar shifts among independents, with Obama increasing his lead of 45 percent to 43 percent in August to 53 percent to 38 percent in September. Partisans continued to support their party nominee by 92 percent among Republicans and 95 percent among Democrats, unchanged from 93 percent and 97 percent in August.

The party ID split was Dem 34, Rep: 27 and Ind 37 or D +7 which is wholly unrealistic (2008 was D +6 and 2004 was R +5) but still does not account for all 14 points nor the jump in support from Independents. The lead still remains Obama +8 if they re-weight it to D +3 to match their prior surveys.

Franklin cautioned, however, that there was also movement in the makeup of partisanship in the poll. In September Republicans made up 27 percent of the likely voter sample, down from an average of 30 percent across all eleven Marquette Law School polls conducted since January. Democrats made up 34 percent, up from an average of 32 percent. Independents were 37 percent of the September sample, the same as their average for the year. “Our September poll makeup is about two points more Democratic and three points less Republican than average, which is within the margin of error,” said Franklin. If the sample were adjusted to match the yearlong average partisan makeup, both margins would tighten, with Baldwin leading 48 to 43 percent and Obama leading 51 to 43 percent. The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted September 13-16. The November matchups, based on a sample of 601 likely voters, have a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Other results are based on 705 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Obama +3 in Wisconsin — Marquette Law School

The Marquette Law School poll is a very well respected organization in Wisconsin politics.  They nailed the Wisconsin recall election in June when pollsters were all over the map in that hotly contested race and their polling in the Presidential race had consistently shown Obama with a 5-8 point lead, consistent withe the Real Clear Politics average over that period. But since the Paul Ryan announcement two likely voter polls were released showing Romney with a 1-point lead by PPP and Rasmussen reports. Now Marquette Law’s latest poll shows Obama with a 3-point lead 49 to 46.

Quick insights:

  • Obama’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk from 8 in July to 5 a few weeks ago and now 3
  • Compared to July poll, Ryan’s favorables and unfavorables both up 5 points in WI.
  • How do WI voters rate Romney’s selection of Ryan? 31%, excellent; 27%, pretty good; 16%, only fair, 19% poor.
  • 58% say Romney’s choice of Ryan reflects favorably on his decision making, 31% say unfavorably.
  • Is Ryan qualified to serve as president? 55%say yes, 37% say no.
  • Does Ryan choice affect likelihood of voting for Romney? 29% say more likely, 13% say less likely, 53% say not much change.
  • Among independents not leaning to either party, 23% say Ryan makes them more likely to vote GOP, 17% say less.
  • 57% of Republicans say Ryan choice made them more likely to vote for Romney, while 2% of Dems said so. — Big point here, Ryan may be picking up some crossover Dems.
  • Ratings of Obama job performance little changed: Now, 48% approval, 45% disapproval. Two weeks ago was 50%-46%.
  • Favorable opinion of Obama 52%, unfavorable 43%. Favorable opinion of Romney, 35%, unfavorable, 45%.
  • Can federal govt keep funding Medicare as is? 37% say system can continue, 55% say major changes needed
  • What do WI voters want for Medicare future? 55% want to keep current system, 38% want govt support of people buying insurance.

More to come …

Obama +5 in Wisconsin — Marquette Law School

The Marquette Law School poll was one of the most accurate during the gubernatorial recall election and it remains consistent with its prior surveys. In the three Marquette Law School polls I blogged Obama lead has been +6, +8 and now +5 — fairly consistent but clearly within striking range especially considering limited campaigning has occurred in the state in an attempt to avoid getting caught in the wake of the contentious recall fight:

In the presidential race, President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent. In July, Obama had 51 percent to Romney’s 43 percent. The presidential race has remained stable since late May when Obama also led 51-43. The poll was conducted August 2-5 by both landline and cell phone. The November matchups for 1188 likely voters have a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, while the result for 519 likely voters in the Republican primary has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The party ID in this poll was D +3 (Democrat 46, Republican 43, Independent/Other 10).  This compares to 2008 D +6 (39-33-29) and 2004 R +3 (35-38-27).

Obama +8 in Wisconsin — Marquette Law School

The Marquette University Law School released their latest polling on the Presidential contest showing Barack Obama with an 8-point lead among likely voters.  This is a 2-point improvement from the June 20 poll. Recall, that during the Wisconsin recall Marquette Law was very accurate in their polling so this is very good news for the President:

In the presidential race, President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent. In June, Obama had 49 percent to Romney’s 43 percent. The presidential race has remained stable since late May when Obama also led 51-43.

Obama’s job approval rating stands at 49 percent approve and 44 percent disapprove. In the mid-June poll, approval was 52 percent with 43 percent disapproving. Fifty-one percent say they have a favorable opinion of Obama while 42 percent say unfavorable. Romney’s favorable rating stands at 36 percent with 42 percent unfavorable. In the June poll, Obama’s favorable rating was 53 percent with 39 percent unfavorable, while Romney was viewed favorably by 35 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent.

Views of the economy are strongly associated with presidential vote. Among likely voters, 22 percent think that the economy has gotten better over the past year, and they support Obama over Romney by 77 percent to 15 percent. Among the 33 percent thinking that the economy got worse, 72 percent support Romney and 24 percent support Obama. Forty-two percent see no change in the economy, and they support Obama over Romney by 58-37 percent.

Looking to the future, 42 percent think the economy will improve over the next year, and they support Obama by a 66 percent to 28 percent margin over Romney. Among the 18 percent who expect the economy to worsen, Romney wins 71 percent to Obama’s 22 percent. Thirty-three percent expect the economy to stay about the same in the coming year. They give Obama 50 percent to Romney’s 44 percent.

The poll was conducted July 5-8 by both landline and cell phone. The November matchups for 810 likely voters have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, while the result for 432 likely voters in the Republican primary has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Obama +6 in Wisconsin — Marquette Law School

The Marquette Law School released results from a number of Wisconsin races, but the Presidential margin was in favor of Obama by +6 (down from +8 four weeks ago).  This runs contrary to the Rasmussen poll showing Romney +3.  While we are big defenders of Rasmussen, the Marquette Law School polls were consistent in the recall elections and its results closely mirrored the actual outcome. A silver lining in this poll is that Republicans hold an 8 point advantage (93 – 85) in enthusiasm towards voting. If anything this speaks to the fluid state of voter sentiment in Wisconsin:

In the presidential race, 49 percent said they would vote for President Barack Obama, to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 43 percent. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted May 23-26, Obama led 51-43. President Obama’s job approval rating stands at 52 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove, unchanged since the previous poll May 23-26. Fifty-three percent say they have a favorable opinion of Obama while 39 percent say unfavorable. Governor Romney’s favorable rating stands at 35 percent with 43 percent unfavorable. In the late May poll Obama’s favorable rating was 55 percent with 41 percent unfavorable while Romney was viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent. The June poll was completed prior to Romney’s visit to Janesville on June 18.

In the aftermath of the recalls, Republicans remain a bit more enthusiastic about voting. Ninety-three percent of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, compared to 85 percent of Democrats and 78 percent of independents. Among all registered voters, Democrats make up 30 percent to 27 percent for Republicans, but among likely voters that three-percentage-point Democratic advantage shrinks to just one point, with 31 percent Democratic and 30 percent Republican among likely voters.

The poll was conducted June 13-16 by both landline and cell phone. The November matchups for likely voters have a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points while the result for Republican primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.