Tag Archives: Latinos

Battleground State Demographics

Yahoo! News contributor, Carol Gilbert,  takes a look some of the demographics in Battleground states that offer insight into their election influence:

Latino voters:

  • States most impacted by Latinos: Colorado, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia
  • In 2008, Hispanics turned out in big numbers to vote for Obama. In 2012, there are more Hispanic voters
  • In Florida and Nevada, Hispanics comprise as much as 15 percent of the eligible voter population
  • In Colorado, the Hispanic vote is 13.7 percent

Unemployment Rate:

  • The national unemployment rate is 8.2%
  • Unemployment is particularly high in three swing states: Nevada has the highest in the nation at 11.6%, North Carolina 9.4%, Florida 8.6 %
  •  The following states have unemployment rates below the national average: Pennsylvania at 7.4%, Ohio 7.3%, Wisconsin 6.8%, Virginia 5.6%, Iowa 5.1%, New Hampshire 5.0%, and New Mexico 6.7%

Gender Gap:

[Candidly, the author did a crappy job on gender gap percentages. Citing polls nearly 2-months old she writes about a 20-point gap when multiple recent polls show the gender gap shrinking to as little as 3 percentage points]

  • In 2008, the number by which female voters exceeded male voters at the polls in Florida, 597,000; Pennsylvania, 419,000; Virginia, 369,000; North Carolina, 358,000; Ohio, 275,000; Iowa, 102,000; Wisconsin, 81,000; Colorado, 62,000; New Mexico 56,000; and New Hampshire, 34,000.

Obama Speech to NALEO, Then and Now

ABC News takes a look at candidate Obama’s visit to this same conference  four years ago and generously concludes, “Obama returns to the group with many of those goals still works in progress, a source of frustration and disillusionment for some of his ardent Latino supporters.”  A look at any of the promises reveals “work in progress” should be replaced by “promises broken“:

In 2008 Obama empathized with the Latino audience:

“You know about the families all across this country who are out of work, or uninsured or struggling to pay rising costs for everything from a tank of gas to a bag of groceries.”

Four years later, Latino unemployment is dramatically higher since both then and relative to the general population.  Pocket-book inflation is going through the roof under Obama making groceries dramatically more expensive. Obama’s healthcare reform is unpopular with a super-majority (68%) of Americans because its raises the cost for insurance while decreasing the services available.

But Obama made plenty of promises in the speech:

  • “ending the housing crisis”
  • creating “millions of new jobs”
  • expanding minority enrollment in health insurance plans

ABC points out:

The collapse of the housing market and a foreclosure wave continues to hit Latino homeowners disproportionately hard, studies find, with market recovery still struggling to take hold. On health care, roughly three times as many Latinos are uninsured than are non-Hispanic whites. And Latino unemployment is on the rise, at 11 percent in May, up from 10.3 percent in April and March, according to the Labor Department, which is higher than the national average.

The Romney campaign took advantage of its speech a day ahead of the President to remind the audience of the broken promises:

“President Obama will speak here, for the first time since his last campaign. He may admit that he hasn’t kept every promise. And he’ll probably say that even though you aren’t better off today than you were four years ago, things could be worse,” Romney said in an address to the NALEO conference on Thursday. “He’ll imply that you really don’t have an alternative. He’s taking your vote for granted,” Romney said. “I’ve come here today with a simple message: You do have an alternative. Your vote should be respected. And your voice is more important now than ever before.”

Demographics Watch: Hispanics

Below is a decent CNN debate on the two Presidential candidates approach and appeal to Hispanics:

http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/apps/cvp/3.0/swf/cnn_416x234_embed.swf?context=embed&videoId=bestoftv/2012/06/01/ybl-sanchez-cardona-lantino-vote.cnn

Killer line: “The way many Hispanic voters feel is that the Democrats and the Obama Administration invited them to the party but they didn’t realize their job was to park the cars when they got there.” Boom!

In addition to the fair representation of each side what struck me was the perfect elocution of the Obama defender on every word except when it came to referencing “Latinos”. In those instances she would slip into an extremely accented pronunciation as if to present herself as more authentic through the “latinization” (yes, I just made that word up) of the pronunciation. I wonder if Democrats agree with the authenticity impact because to conservatives, it reeks of phoniness or pandering which seems quite insulting.

Romney Unleashes Diverse Surrogates in Battleground States

A candidate cannot be in all places at all times and it is important to have a stable of articulate supporters to amplify the campaign’s message to various audiences. Considering the narrow Battleground state focus and an even more narrow swath of persuadable voters in those states, it is increasingly important to inspire and employ surrogates who can bring a unique appeal to those targeted voters. Mitt Romney is wasting no time rolling out a line-up of heavy-hitters to carry his message:

Mitt Romney is mobilizing a fast-growing network of surrogates to help make his case with voters as his campaign begins to exert greater control over the GOP messaging operation. He is relying on a diverse cast of politicians, business leaders, athletes and celebrities to court key groups of voters, including social conservatives, Hispanics and suburban women.

National names include:

  • Sen. John Thune (S.D.)
  • Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty
  • Former ambassador John Bolton
  • Former New Hampshire governor John Sununu.

[A]ides are trying to build a more disciplined surrogate operation, distributing talking points to politicians and pundits whom they call upon to spread his message. Romney aides are now picking guests to appear on the Sunday political talk shows and holding Saturday conference calls to rehearse answers to likely questions, according to a campaign adviser. Other surrogates are booked for targeted television, radio and newspaper interviews to help build support among demographic groups with which Romney has struggled.

Women:
[T]he candidate’s wife, Ann, [looks] to be his most powerful surrogate and [aides] are developing a robust schedule of solo visits for her to help close the gender gap with Obama. they are considering having her campaign in nursing homes, schools and medical research facilities in suburban areas outside Philadelphia, Denver, Milwaukee and Charlotte, as well as in Northern Virginia and along Florida’s I-4 corridor. Other female surrogates are making similar pitches, including:

  • Sen. Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
  • South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
  • Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.)

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Latinos Swung Colorado for Obama in 08? Apparently Not

The always invaluable Jay Cost picks up on The Hill piece I blogged about earlier and brings to light an important mis-characterization in the discussion of the Colorado voting landscape:

[C]ontrary to conventional wisdom, Latinos did not swing the state from red to blue in 2008. According to exit polls, John McCain managed 38 percent of the Latino vote. In 2004, George W. Bush pulled in 30 percent. The real action was with white voters, who gave McCain just 48 percent of the vote compared to 57 percent for Bush.

Cost goes on to identify a reason why Colorado could be a rebound state for the GOP after flipping Democrat in 2008 (by reason of a healthier performance in 2010 by a state party that has often sabotaged itself).  But with all of the hullabaloo around the Democrats capitalizing on the admittedly changing demographics in states like North Carolina and purportedly Colorado in such a manner to achieve a “permanent majority” it is more than curious to see Jay Cost easily debunk that notion in the Rocky Mountain state.