Tag Archives: intensity

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVII

MSNBC dishes most of the red meat this week with weekly ad buys.  We don’t have the details for each market but the markets included (and not included) tell a much bigger story.  Look at the week-over-week shift.  Last week had the Romney campaign’s entire 3-2-1 strategy for winning the election: Virginia (2x), Ohio (2x), Florida (2x), Colorado (1x), Iowa (2x) and Wisconsin (1x). This week the front-half of the 3-2-1 strategy carpet bombs Ohio (4x) but thins appreciably after that: no Virginia, Florida down to one market, and it’s the back-half of the 3-2-1 strategy that remains: Colorado (1x), Wisconsin (2x), Iowa (1x) with the expansion to Nevada (1x). This Battleground ad spending shift is a huge win for Romney. As MSNBC writes:

One of the “tells” we told you about MONTHS ago about this battleground map was to keep an eye on October and see where the battle was being waged more intensely. If it was in the New South battleground states of FL/NC and VA more than the Midwest, advantage Obama. Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that’s good news for Romney.

Without the ad points (we asked for them) it’s hard to tell the saturation but MSNBC reported the gross dollar figures which are staggering:

This week alone, more than $58 million is being spent. Obama leads the pack with $20 million spent, but Romney is close at $16.5 million (of course, he is getting less bang for the buck because of when his campaign books ads). With outside groups factored in, Team Romney’s outspending Team Obama this week, $34 million to $24 million.

Regarding the ad points, according to MSNBC:

Romney has more ad points than Obama narrowly in Denver, Mason City, and Orlando.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/15-10/21 Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14
1. Green Bay, WI
2. Denver, CO
3. Cincinnati, OH
4. Columbus, OH
5. Madison, WI
6. Toledo, OH
7. Rochester-Mason City, MN-Austin, IA
8. Cleveland, OH
9. Orlando-Daytona Beach. FL
10. Las Vegas, NV
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)

MSNBC takeaways:
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Four of the top 10 hottest markets this week (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 15-21) are in the Buckeye State. Wisconsin has two, including Green Bay in the top spot. One striking thing about this week’s top markets — no Virginia. Markets like Norfolk, Roanoke, and Richmond have routinely been in the top 10, but they have dropped out to 16, 21, and 22, respectively. The Obama campaign has maintained its levels in Norfolk and Richmond, but cut it in half in Roanoke, from 1,500 points to 795 this week. The Romney campaign, on the other hand, INCREASED its spending in that market. The Obama campaign increased in places like Mason City, IA.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVI

After a one week hiatus (never did get last week’s info from NBC) the weekly top 10 ad markets is back with only one surprise, Green Bay, Wisconsin. If there weren’t any weekly gaps we could have done some really need stuff with this data but alas …

The no brainer states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida dominate the list which comes as no surprise.  We see the campaign focused Battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin being the real stories. This is straight out of Karl Rove’s 3-2-1 strategy he wrote about 5-months ago (Day 2 of this b log!)with 3 being Indiana, North Carolina and Virgina (2 out of 3 done), 2 being Ohio and Florida (obvious priorities through election day) and 1 being Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin (based on this week’s spending).

While Team Romney is making a play for the other states (New Hampshire and Nevada) clearly they see their best chances in the three making today’s list.  The Romney campaign clearly saw concern in Iowa which bolsters the claim that Obama’s unprecedented 3-day commitment in August paid real dividends. No surprise comparatively new American Future Fund is big in Iowa as the conservative organization is headed by ex-GOP Iowa staffers. Additionally the pro-Romney teams are saturating Wisconsin which is a great sign about its potential vulnerability to flipping.  Finally, we see the NRA entering the mix in Norfolk, Virginia which is great since their constituency is both loyal and passionate which should help turnout.   All good signs that everything is on full blast for the final three weeks.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14 Hottest Markets for the week 9/24-9/30
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540, Restore 1480, Romney 940, Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando, FL: Obama 1700, Romney 1240, AJS 890, Crossroads 620, Priorities 250
3. Cleveland, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1500, AJS 710, Priorities 440, Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete, FL: Obama 1710, Romney 1300, AJS 670, Crossroads 480, Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800, Romney 1500, AJS 570, Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: Romney 1500, Obama 1340, AJS 670, Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: Obama 1450, Romney 1440, AJS 730, Crossroads 215, Priorities 200
8. Dayton, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1390, Crossroads 570, AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: Romney 1475, Obama 1360, AJS 490, Crossroads 400, Priorities 230
10. Toledo, OH: Romney 1500/Obama 1110, AJS 680, Crossroads 270, Priorities 330

MSNBC takeaways:

No takeaways provided but away from the top ten, they do write-up an appropriately concerning story about potential ad spending mismanagement.  I’ll be curious to see how this washes out after the election because based on these reports, it really does look like amateur hour:

If Obama ends up winning the presidential contest, it could very well come down to this: Team Obama has a tactical advantage over Team Romney, and that’s especially true when it comes to advertising strategy. Politico has this example: “Voters in Columbus, Ohio, saw 30-second television ads for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney while watching ‘Wheel of Fortune’ on their CBS affiliate over three days in September. For Obama’s team, the order per spot cost $500. For Romney’s, the price tag on the order was more than five times steeper at $2,800 per ad.” What’s going on here? Politico explains, “Romney places his commercials on a week-to-week basis, rather than booking time well in advance, and typically pays more so that his ads don’t get preempted and to spare his campaign the hassle of haggling over time as prices rise.” Folks, this is the equivalent of an NFL team — in terms of tactics and ad-buying strategy — going up against a high school team. And here’s another example we’ve heard: For weeks, the Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on the “Big 10 Network.” Only until recently has the Romney campaign also decided to advertise on the channel, about five weeks AFTER the start of football season. In a close race, the little things matter.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XIV

We had a hiatus due to the back to back National Conventions and then almost missed this one when all political events were overtaken by the events overseas. But MSNBC remained on top of things with the top 10 markets for ad spending. North Carolina remains in the discussion thanks to Team Romney spending but expect the stealth withdrawl to begin post haste.  Notably Nevada has two representative in the top 10 while Virginia and Ohio remain the top dogs overall.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from September 10-September 16).

Hottest Markets for the week 9/10-9/16 Hottest Markets for the week 8/20-8/26
1.  Columbus, OH (Romney 1200, Obama 800, Priorities 500, American Crossroads 250)
2. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, American Crossroads 270, Priorities 245)
3. Richmond, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, American Crossroads 220, Priorities 180)
4. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1200, Romney 1000, American Crossroads 200, Priorities 100)
5. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1200, Romney 780, Priorities 270, American Crossroads 180)
6. Raleigh, NC (Romney 1200, Obama 880, American Crossroads 365)
7. Tampa, FL (Romney 1000, Obama 880, American Crossroads 250, Priorities 230)
8. Toledo, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 815, American Crossroads 340, Priorities 240)
9. Reno, NV (Romney 980, Obama 845, American Crossroads 545)
10. Las Vegas (Obama 1000, Romney 800, American Crossroads 500)
1. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 870, ROF 700, AFP 550, RNC 200)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1000, ROF 760, Obama 700, AFP 650, RNC 300)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 875, ROF 860, Obama 730, AFP 675, RNC 175)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 950, Romney 700, ROF 600, AFP 550, RNC 225)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 500, AFP 450, RNC 250, Priorities 150)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 630, ROF 630, AFP 500, RNC 200)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 415, AFP 400, RNC 200, Priorities 135)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 725, ROF 450, AFP 400, RNC 130)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 800, ROF 700, AFP 500, Obama 450, RNC 250)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 500, ROF 445, AFP 300, RNC 200, Priorities 120)

MSNBC takeaways:

This week – from Sept. 10-16 –Team Romney (the campaign and outside groups) is outspending Team Obama (campaign and outside groups), $10.7 million to $9.4 million. Here’s the breakdown: Obama camp $7 million, Romney camp $6.9 million, American Crossroads $2.7 million, Priorities USA $2.1 million, Americans for Prosperity $1 million, and SEIU/Priorities $240K. Note: These numbers are a bit smaller than in past weeks because the campaigns pulled down their ads on Sept. 11.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XIII

The weekly top 10 advertising markets from MSNBC shows a few trends.  The last couple of weeks, the Romney campaign has been outspending the Obama campaign by about 2-to-1 and this week is no different, but even worse for the Obama campaign.  By MSNBC estimates, “Team Romney (the campaign, RNC, outside groups) is outspending Team Obama on the airwaves this week by MORE than a 2-to-1 advantage, $26 million to $10 million.” Presidential elections are all-or-nothing contests so with both campaigns likely to reach $1 billion in fundraising, the Romney camp clearly thinks they need to unload the artillery in their war chest now considering Obama did exactly that through June and July. Iowa remains in focus with 3 entrants in the top 10 including the #1 slot with Des Moines. The other states getting some love are unsurprisingly Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. While Charlotte, North Carolina sneaks into the top 10, look at the participants.  Four of the five are pro-Romney and the Obama campaign ad spend is 450 — the lowest for either campaign in ANY top 10 market since we started tracking this three months ago.  I know why, you know why, and the Obama campaign’s lack of ad spending in North Carolina tells you why North Carolina is not a Battleground State. A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from August 20-August 26).

Hottest Markets for the week 8/20-8/26 Hottest Markets for the week 8/13-8/19
1. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 870, ROF 700, AFP 550, RNC 200)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1000, ROF 760, Obama 700, AFP 650, RNC 300)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 875, ROF 860, Obama 730, AFP 675, RNC 175)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 950, Romney 700, ROF 600, AFP 550, RNC 225)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 500, AFP 450, RNC 250, Priorities 150)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 630, ROF 630, AFP 500, RNC 200)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 700, ROF 415, AFP 400, RNC 200, Priorities 135)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 725, ROF 450, AFP 400, RNC 130)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 800, ROF 700, AFP 500, Obama 450, RNC 250)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 500, ROF 445, AFP 300, RNC 200, Priorities 120)
1. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 1000, Obama 790, ROF 675, AFP 630, RNC 215)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 990, Obama 715, ROF 615, AFP 575, RNC 245, Priorities 120)
3. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 840, AFP 550, ROF 475, RNC 200)
4. Denver, CO (Obama 1000, Romney 950, AFP 430, ROF 415, RNC 250, Priorities 200)
5. Charlotte, NC (Romney 950, Obama 815, ROF 580, AFP 500, RNC 240, MoveOn.org 20)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Romney 965, Obama 775, Priorities 415, AFP 360, ROF 350, RNC 185)
7. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 960, Romney 830, AFP 550, ROF 490, RNC 200)
8. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 970, AFP 400, ROF 350, RNC 130)
9. Sioux City, IA (Obama 775, Romney 745, AFP 600, ROF 550, RNC 200)
10. Tampa, FL (Obama 850, Romney 775, ROF 500, AFP 500)

MSNBC takeaways:

Team Romney has held the clear advertising edge for the past month and a half. (And it raises the question if this advantage is currently moving the needle and if it can move the needle come the fall.)

Ad spending breakdown for this week (8/20 to 8/26):

  1. Restore Our Future $10.3 million
  2. Obama $9.4 million
  3. Americans for Prosperity $6.8 million
  4. Romney $6.5 million
  5. RNC $2.7 million
  6. Priorities USA $600K.

To date, nearly $540 million has been spent in advertising in this presidential election, with Team Romney spending $292 million and Team Obama $248 million

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XII — Iowa in Focus

The weekly ad spends from MSNBC has a few stark things jump out at you.  With President Obama barnstorming Iowa for an unprecedented 3-straight days this week, FOUR Iowa cities jump into the top 10 when no more than 1 Iowa city makes the list. The Obama campaign out-spends the Romney campaign in each city (presumably bolstering the president’s message), but when outside groups ad spending is factored in, pro-Romney ads outpace pro-Obama ads nearly 2-to-1: Des Moines (2,065 vs 1100), Cedar Rapids (2,070 vs 960), Quad Cities (1,850 vs 1000), and Sioux City (2,095 vs 775). Away from Iowa Colorado remains a state of prominence with 2 in the top 4 (Colorado Springs and Denver).  The Rocky Mountain state has received serious attention from the Romney campaign over the last couple of weeks.  We will see soon if they were able to move the needle in the polls. Charlotte, North Carolina remains stubbornly on the list at #5 but as it has been for the last few weeks, only the pro-Romney spends keep it in the top 10.  Expect that (and pro-Obama spends) to drop precipitously following the Democrat Convention is early September. A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from August 13-August 19).

Hottest Markets for the week 8/13-8/19 Hottest Markets for the week 8/06-8/12
1. Roanoke-Lynchburg (Romney 1000, Obama 790, ROF 675, AFP 630, RNC 215)
2. Colorado Springs (Romney 990, Obama 715, ROF 615, AFP 575, RNC 245, Priorities 120)
3. Des Moines (Obama 1100, Romney 840, AFP 550, ROF 475, RNC 200)
4. Denver (Obama 1000, Romney 950, AFP 430, ROF 415, RNC 250, Priorities 200)
5. Charlotte (Romney 950, Obama 815, ROF 580, AFP 500, RNC 240, MoveOn.org 20)
6. Richmond-Petersburg (Romney 965, Obama 775, Priorities 415, AFP 360, ROF 350, RNC 185)
7. Cedar Rapids (Obama 960, Romney 830, AFP 550, ROF 490, RNC 200)
8. Quad Cities (Obama 1000, Romney 970, AFP 400, ROF 350, RNC 130)
9. Sioux City (Obama 775, Romney 745, AFP 600, ROF 550, RNC 200)
10. Tampa (Obama 850, Romney 775, ROF 500, AFP 500)
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, AFP 540, RNC 200, ROF 180, Priorities 165, Crossroads 100)
2. Cincinnati, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1000, AFP 250, ROF 250, Crossroads 170, RNC 150)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 1000, Obama 900, AFP 900, RNC 170, ROF 150, Crossroads 120)
4. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1350, Romney 1100, AFP 400, RNC 190, Crossroads 150, ROF 130)
5. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Romney 1300, Obama 1000, AFP 320, RNC 180, Crossroads 160, ROF 160, Priorities 155)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, AFP 610, ROF 225, RNC 215, Crossroads 100)
7. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, AFP 315, Crossroads 160, ROF 130, RNC 100)
8. Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 650, AFP 380, RNC 250, Priorities 230, ROF 200, Crossroads 100)
9. Columbus, OH (Romney 1000, Obama 830, AFP 300, RNC 160, ROF 150, Priorities 130, Crossroads 120)
10. Toledo, OH (Romney 980, Obama 940, AFP 330, RNC 180, ROF 160, Crossroads 100)

MSNBC takeaways:

  • Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. Four of the top 10 markets are in Hawkeye State — Des Moines (#3), Cedar Rapids (#7), Quad Cities (#8), and Sioux City (#9).
  • Team Romney (the campaign, RNC, outside groups) is outspending Team Obama by more than 2-to-1, $25 million to $11 million.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XI

Weekly red meat from MSNBC on the latest ad spends in the 10 hottest markets. The focus this week is on only four states, including three markets each in Iowa and Ohio and two each in Virginia and Colorado. Nothing too much underneath the hood beyond the Iowa focus and the continuation of pro-Romney spends strongly outpacing pro-Obama spends by nearly 2-to-1.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from August 6-August 12).

Hottest Markets for the week 8/06-8/12 Hottest Markets for the week 7/30-8/05
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, AFP 540, RNC 200, ROF 180, Priorities 165, Crossroads 100)
2. Cincinnati, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1000, AFP 250, ROF 250, Crossroads 170, RNC 150)
3. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney 1000, Obama 900, AFP 900, RNC 170, ROF 150, Crossroads 120)
4. Des Moines, IA (Obama 1350, Romney 1100, AFP 400, RNC 190, Crossroads 150, ROF 130)
5. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Romney 1300, Obama 1000, AFP 320, RNC 180, Crossroads 160, ROF 160, Priorities 155)
6. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, AFP 610, ROF 225, RNC 215, Crossroads 100)
7. Quad Cities, IA (Obama 1100, Romney 1100, AFP 315, Crossroads 160, ROF 130, RNC 100)
8. Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 650, AFP 380, RNC 250, Priorities 230, ROF 200, Crossroads 100)
9. Columbus, OH (Romney 1000, Obama 830, AFP 300, RNC 160, ROF 150, Priorities 130, Crossroads 120)
10. Toledo, OH (Romney 980, Obama 940, AFP 330, RNC 180, ROF 160, Crossroads 100)
1. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1600, Romney 1100, Crossroads 880, RNC 190, ROF 275)
2. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1300, Romney 1200, Crossroads 895, RNC 215, ROF/200, Priorities/170)
3. Reno, NV (Crossroads 1500, Obama 1200, Romney 700, RNC 150, ROF 120)
4. Columbus, OH (Obama 1300, Romney 1000, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, ROF 200, Priorities 200)
5. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1250, Romney 975, Crossroads 620, RNC 240, ROF 225, Priorities 140)
6. Las Vegas, NV (Obama 1100, Crossroads 1100, Romney 775, RNC 200, ROF 120)
7. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1400, Romney 800, Crossroads 450, RNC 215, Priorities 200, ROF 150)
8. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads 720, RNC 200)
9. Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 700, Crossroads 575, RNC 300, ROF 300, Priorities 250)
10. Roanoke Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 900, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, Priorities 180)

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is X

For months we’ve been hearing about the Romney campaign out-raising the Obama campaign, now the Romney and his surrogates are beginning to unleash its arsenal. MSNBC’s First read has the latest weekly ad spends and plenty of data to chew on. With the exception of Cleveland where the ad intensity is near parity, the pro-Romney ads dramatically outpace the pro-Obama ads by more than 76%. The greatest disparities are in Denver (146%), Reno (106%), and Las Vegas (96%). The blitz in Nevada is important as nagging articles continue to claim the Silver State is trending away from Romney. Only four states make the top 10 which is a first and shows an increasing concentration of resources and efforts.  North Carolina drops out after its brief return to the top-10, but regular readers are not surprised by its disappearance. Priority states for both campaigns is unsurprisingly Ohio and Virginia with three markets represented in each state.  A quick guide: ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 30-August 05).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/30-8/05 Hottest Markets for the week 7/23-7/29
1. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1600, Romney 1100, Crossroads 880, RNC 190, ROF 275)
2. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1300, Romney 1200, Crossroads 895, RNC 215, ROF/200, Priorities/170)
3. Reno, NV (Crossroads 1500, Obama 1200, Romney 700, RNC 150, ROF 120)
4. Columbus, OH (Obama 1300, Romney 1000, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, ROF 200, Priorities 200)
5. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1250, Romney 975, Crossroads 620, RNC 240, ROF 225, Priorities 140)
6. Las Vegas, NV (Obama 1100, Crossroads 1100, Romney 775, RNC 200, ROF 120)
7. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1400, Romney 800, Crossroads 450, RNC 215, Priorities 200, ROF 150)
8. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads 720, RNC 200)
9. Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 700, Crossroads 575, RNC 300, ROF 300, Priorities 250)
10. Roanoke Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 900, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, Priorities 180)
1. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 650, RNC 215)
2. Tampa, FL (Romney 840, Obama 775, Crossroads GPS 670, American Crossroads 600, Priorities USA 200)
3. Cincinnati, OH (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, Crossroads GPS 400, American Crossroads 265, RNC 100)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 980, Crossroads 400, American Crossroads 350, RNC 200)
5. Reno, NV (Obama 1300, Romney 650, Crossroads GPS 450, American Crossroads 370, RNC 250)
6. Greenville-New Bern, NC (Romney 970, Obama 600, Crossroads GPS 550, American Crossroads 515, RNC 350)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1200, Romney 1100, Crossroads GPS 270, Priorities USA 240, RNC 125)
8. Columbus, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 370, American Crossroads 260, Priorities USA 140, RNC 150)
9. Orlando, FL (Obama 875, Romney 860, Crossroads GPS 475, American Crossroads 425, Priorities USA 274)
10. Charlotte, NC (Romney 1000, Obama 800, American Crossroads 420, Crossroads GPS, 390, RNC 240)

Market: pro-Obama vs pro-Romney — intensity disparity

Continue reading

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is IX

MSNBC’s First Read has the weekly rundown of the hottest political ad markets for the week ahead. For the second straight week, the pro-Romney camp massively outspends the pro-Obama camp almost reaching the 2:1 advantage from the prior week. Colorado is not in the top 10 after dominating the list the last couple of weeks due to both campaigns pulling ads following the shooting massacre in Aurora, Colorado. Our previous favorite state to discuss (for its lack of relevance), North Carolina, makes a return with two markets in the top 10. But note the overwhelming advertising spend is from the Romney camp while Obama’s camp barely has a presence.  Looks more and more likely they have pulled up stakes and headed elsewhere. After that, everything looks rather typical with Ohio and Virginia maintaining their positions as top states which will likely continue through November.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 23-July 29).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/23-7/29 Hottest Markets for the week 7/16-7/22
1. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 650, RNC 215)
2. Tampa, FL (Romney 840, Obama 775, Crossroads GPS 670, American Crossroads 600, Priorities USA 200)
3. Cincinnati, OH (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, Crossroads GPS 400, American Crossroads 265, RNC 100)
4. Toledo, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 980, Crossroads 400, American Crossroads 350, RNC 200)
5. Reno, NV (Obama 1300, Romney 650, Crossroads GPS 450, American Crossroads 370, RNC 250)
6. Greenville-New Bern, NC (Romney 970, Obama 600, Crossroads GPS 550, American Crossroads 515, RNC 350)
7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1200, Romney 1100, Crossroads GPS 270, Priorities USA 240, RNC 125)
8. Columbus, OH (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 370, American Crossroads 260, Priorities USA 140, RNC 150)
9. Orlando, FL (Obama 875, Romney 860, Crossroads GPS 475, American Crossroads 425, Priorities USA 274)
10. Charlotte, NC (Romney 1000, Obama 800, American Crossroads 420, Crossroads GPS, 390, RNC 240)
1. Denver, CO (Obama 975, Romney 840, RNC 620, Crossroads 520, Priorities 150)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 950, Obama 930, Crossroads 700, RNC 300, Priorities 185)
3. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 930, Romney 820, Crossroads 745, RNC 275)
4. Roanoke, VA (Obama 930, Romney 630, Crossroads 600, RNC 470)
5. Richmond, VA (Obama 860, Romney 775, RNC 370, Crossroads 360, Priorities 240)
6. Charlotte, NC (Romney 915, Obama 750, RNC 570, Crossroads 370)
7. Tampa, FL (Romney 875, Obama 711, Crossroads 690, Priorities 185)
8. Columbus, OH (Romney 815, Obama 765, Crossroads 360, RNC 350, Priorities 140)
9. Boston-Manchester, NH (RNC 1000, Crossroads 550, Obama 550, Romney 225)
10. Orlando, FL (Romney 830, Obama 800, Crossroads 615, Priorities 130)

MSNBC First Read take-aways:

1) In most of these markets, Obama and Romney are running fairly even, but GOP outside groups are giving Team Romney the edge in advertising points;
2) the states here are Ohio (3 markets), Virginia (2), Florida (2), North Carolina (2), and Nevada (1)
3)  Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA is this week’s No. 1 market.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is VIII — RNC on the Map

MSNBC’s First Read has the weekly rundown of the hottest political ad markets for the week ahead.  Plenty of red meat again this week with the introduction of the Republican National Committee announcing its presence with authority and Crossroads GPS building on its return to the fray last week. These combined third-party pro-Romney entities outspend the Obama campaign in nearly every market, and that’s before adding in the official Romney campaign spends. Colorado again dominates the priorities with a clean sweep of medals holding down the top three spots — an impressive feat and a first since we’ve been tracking this. Virginia unsurprisingly holds the next two spots  while Ohio again takes a little bit of a breather holding only one of the top 10 spots for the second straight week. Florida slides down the charts with 2 markets in the bottom half of the top 10 after having two in the top 5 last week. New Hampshire makes its first appearance due to the strong buys from the RNC and Crossroads bolstering tepid buys from Obama and Romney. Charlotte, North Carolina (home of the Democrat National Convention) is the Tar Heel state’s lone representative thanks to spending by pro-Romney groups, not pro-Obama groups.  Has the Obama campaign begun pulling up stakes in North Carolina?  We think so.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 16-July 22).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/16-7/22 Hottest Markets for the week 7/09-7/15
1. Denver, CO (Obama 975, Romney 840, RNC 620, Crossroads 520, Priorities 150)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 950, Obama 930, Crossroads 700, RNC 300, Priorities 185)
3. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 930, Romney 820, Crossroads 745, RNC 275)
4. Roanoke, VA (Obama 930, Romney 630, Crossroads 600, RNC 470)
5. Richmond, VA (Obama 860, Romney 775, RNC 370, Crossroads 360, Priorities 240)
6. Charlotte, NC (Romney 915, Obama 750, RNC 570, Crossroads 370)
7. Tampa, FL (Romney 875, Obama 711, Crossroads 690, Priorities 185)
8. Columbus, OH (Romney 815, Obama 765, Crossroads 360, RNC 350, Priorities 140)
9. Boston-Manchester, NH (RNC 1000, Crossroads 550, Obama 550, Romney 225)
10. Orlando, FL (Romney 830, Obama 800, Crossroads 615, Priorities 130)
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1,000, Obama 985, Crossroads 430, AFP 200, Priorities 155)
2. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 975, Romney 820, Crossroads 450, AFP 330)
3. Tampa, FL (Romney 920, Obama 765, Crossroads 430, AFP 223. Priorities 185)
4. Denver, CO (Obama 1,000, Romney 860, Crossroads 300, Priorities 150, AFP 140)
5. Orlando, FL (Romney 900, Obama 860, Crossroads 340, AFP 170, Priorities 150)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 900, Romney 800, Crossroads 200, AFP 180, Priorities 155)
7. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 975, Romney 450, Crossroads 490, AFP 395)
8. Greenville-New Bern, NC (Romney 850, Obama 600, Crossroads 415, AFP 300)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 830, Obama 800, Crossroads 275, AFP 200)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 915, Romney 650, Crossroads 200, AFP 150, Priorities 120)

MSNBC First Read take-aways:

  • Team Romney (the campaign, the RNC, and Crossroads GPS) is outspending Team Obama (campaign and Priorities USA Action) this week by a 2-to-1 margin in the battleground states, $16 million to $8 million
  • According to MSNBC ad-tracking data, the Obama campaign has purchased $7.1 million worth of advertising this week (7/16-7/22), Crossroads GPS $6.1 million, the Romney campaign $6 million (its largest media buy to date in the general election), the RNC $4.4 million, and Priorities USA Action nearly $1 million
  • In three battleground states now, the RNC is actually outspending the Romney campaign for this week: North Carolina (RNC $835K vs. Romney $682K), Iowa ($475K vs. $427K), and New Hampshire ($648K vs. $82K)
  • The top-three markets are in Colorado
  • Markets in Virginia (Roanoke and Richmond) round out the top five
  • New Hampshire makes its first appearance on this top-10 list (thanks to 1,000 points by the RNC)
  • Most importantly, all the GOP entities are outspending the Obama/Dem entities in these markets

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is VII — Colorado in Focus

MSNBC’s First Read has the weekly rundown of the hottest ad markets for the week ahead.  Colorado really stands out in the top two spots and containing three of the top four. Florida remains in focus as well with two of the top five. After that we note a return of two North Carolina markets to the top 10 with a caveat. The overwhelming spend in those North Carolina markets are from pro-Romney buys evidencing his “putting it to bed” phase while the Obama campaign fades and redeploys in actual Battleground states.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 9-July 15).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/09-7/15 Hottest Markets for the week 7/02-7/08
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Romney 1,000, Obama 985, Crossroads 430, AFP 200, Priorities 155)
2. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 975, Romney 820, Crossroads 450, AFP 330)
3. Tampa, FL (Romney 920, Obama 765, Crossroads 430, AFP 223. Priorities 185)
4. Denver, CO (Obama 1,000, Romney 860, Crossroads 300, Priorities 150, AFP 140)
5. Orlando, FL (Romney 900, Obama 860, Crossroads 340, AFP 170, Priorities 150)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 900, Romney 800, Crossroads 200, AFP 180, Priorities 155)
7. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 975, Romney 450, Crossroads 490, AFP 395)
8. Greenville-New Bern, NC (Romney 850, Obama 600, Crossroads 415, AFP 300)
9. Charlotte, NC (Romney 830, Obama 800, Crossroads 275, AFP 200)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 915, Romney 650, Crossroads 200, AFP 150, Priorities 120)
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 950, Romney 900, AFP 250, Priorities 200)
2. Orlando, FL (Romney 985, Obama 700, AFP 150, Priorities 150)
3. Tampa, FL (Romney 950, Obama 580, AFP 215, Priorities 200)
4. Richmond, VA (Obama 775, Romney 690, Priorities 250, AFP 200)
5. Roanoke, VA (Obama 830, Romney 720, AFP 350)
6. Reno, NV (Obama 850, Romney 715, AFP 150)
7. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 775, Romney 550, AFP 350)
8. Denver, CO (Obama 750, Romney 650, Priorities 40, AFP 125)
9. Columbus, OH (Obama 660, Romney 530, Priorities 360, AFP 100)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 765, Romney 580, AFP 125, Priorities 125)

MSNBC First Read take-aways:

  • Three of the top four markets are in Colorado, including top-ranked Colorado Springs, which holds on to its No.1 slot from last week.
  • Two markets are in Florida, two in Virginia, two in North Carolina, and one in Ohio.
  • Romney is outspending Obama in some of these 10 hottest markets, even as Obama is outspending Romney nearly 2-1 for the week
  • What has to be occurring is that Obama is outspending in markets that the Romney campaign really isn’t contesting — for now.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is VI — Hooray for the Drones at MSNBC’s First Read!!!

After a fierce lobbying effort (i.e. my annoying tweet to First Read calling them names), they came through with the numbers break down on the advertising intensity figures. Since it is 5:00 on a mid-week holiday and I want to go drinking, takeaways will be brief. The ad intensity make up is a four-man show this week with pro-Obama ads from the campaign and Priorities USA while pro-Romney ads are from the campaign and Americans for Prosperity.

NOTE: This top 10 is a very different order than the top 10 on Chuck Todd’s TV show Daily Rundown, so the “takeaways” in my earlier post should largely be discarded.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 2-July 8).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/02-7/08 Hottest Markets for the week 6/25-7/01
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 950, Romney 900, AFP 250, Priorities 200)
2. Orlando, FL (Romney 985, Obama 700, AFP 150, Priorities 150)
3. Tampa, FL (Romney 950, Obama 580, AFP 215, Priorities 200)
4. Richmond, VA (Obama 775, Romney 690, Priorities 250, AFP 200)
5. Roanoke, VA (Obama 830, Romney 720, AFP 350)
6. Reno, NV (Obama 850, Romney 715, AFP 150)
7. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 775, Romney 550, AFP 350)
8. Denver, CO (Obama 750, Romney 650, Priorities 40, AFP 125)
9. Columbus, OH (Obama 660, Romney 530, Priorities 360, AFP 100)
10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 765, Romney 580, AFP 125, Priorities 125)
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1400, Romney 740 ROF 430, AFP 365, Priorities 150)
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1400, Romney 550, ROF 515, CWA 450)
3. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 630, AFP 300, ROF 300)
4. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 275, CWA 240, Priorities 200)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 140)
6. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 250, CWA 220, Priorities 100)
7. Ft. Myers, FL (Obama 1300, ROF 615, AFP 500)
8. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 425, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 115)
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL (Obama 1500, ROF 375, AFP 330, Priorities 175)
10. Reno, NV (Obama 1500, Romney 370, ROF 230, AFP 200)

NEW QUICK TAKES:

  • Colorado Springs, CO retains the number one spot and is joined in the top 10 by Grand Junction and Denver — a big showing for Colorado
  • Unlike last week, Romney campaign shows up in Florida pushing 2 markets into the top three
  • Virginia holds two of the top 5 slots and will remain prominent until election day
  • Reno, NV jumps from #10 to #6 this week
  • For the second week in a row, no North Carolina market is not in the top 10
  • Crossroads GPS again does not show up

Continue reading

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is VI — Booooooo to Lazy Drones at MSNBC’s First Read

UPDATE: New Weekly Top 10 here with ad intensity #s (and a corrected top 10 order)

My weekly “Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is” post is always a lot of work but one of the more illuminating news items.  A reader is able to genuinely identify campaign Battlegrounds versus campaign bravado that may say otherwise.  Notably, we have tracked the rise and fall of North Carolina‘s prominence from the very beginning and consistently predicted a precipitous drop in its importance sooner rather than later. Today’s report which First read failed to publish today (Booooooo!) was discussed on Chuck Todd’s Daily Rundown but none of the granularity was provided so in-depth analysis can’t be done.  We do know however, for the second week in a row, North Carolina is not in the top 10.  This is firming our long-held view that North Carolina is not a Battleground state.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from July 2-July 8).

Hottest Markets for the week 7/02-7/08 Hottest Markets for the week 6/25-7/01
1. Colorado Springs, CO (No data available — Boooo!)
2. Orlando, FL (–)
3. Reno, NV (–)
4. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL (–)
5. Grand Junction, CO (–)
6. Denver, CO (–)
7. Cleveland, OH (–)
8. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (–)
9. Cincinnati, OH (–)
10. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (–)
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1400, Romney 740 ROF 430, AFP 365, Priorities 150)
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1400, Romney 550, ROF 515, CWA 450)
3. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 630, AFP 300, ROF 300)
4. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 275, CWA 240, Priorities 200)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 140)
6. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 250, CWA 220, Priorities 100)
7. Ft. Myers, FL (Obama 1300, ROF 615, AFP 500)
8. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 425, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 115)
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL (Obama 1500, ROF 375, AFP 330, Priorities 175)
10. Reno, NV (Obama 1500, Romney 370, ROF 230, AFP 200)

Quick takes:

  • Colorado springs, CO holds down the top spot for the second week in a row
  • 2 Colorado markets in the top five and 3 in the top 10 with Grand Junction joining the party
  • Florida rises in prominence with 2 in the top 5 after 2 markets cracked the top 10 last week
  • Reno, NV jumps from #10 to #3 this week
  • This is the first week where arguably Ohio and Virginia are comparatively de-emphasized within the top markets with none of the top five coming from either state

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is V — Bye Bye North Carolina

MSNBC’s First Read reported on the weekly ad buys and there were plenty of surprises this week. We have watched North Carolina closely since the beginning because we argued it is not a Battleground state and we expected the Obama campaign to pull up stakes sooner rather than later in this campaign. After saturating the state two weeks ago, no North Carolina market even made the top 10 this week (Charlotte was 11th). Combine that with the news that funds for the nominating convention are low and the Obama campaign are scaling back major events around the convention and the reality of North Carolina’s fate becomes all the more clear. Interestingly, the Obama campaign is undaunted by its negative burn rate in May as we see the campaign unload with both barrels across the top 10 markets this week. The official campaign spend actually dwarfed all other expenditures combined, even if we include pro-Obama superpacs with the pro-Romney spends (14600 vs 11590). That’s an impressive “all in” move by Obama he hopes will capitalize on momentum from his immigration maneuver poll bump. If he doesn’t meaningfully move the polls with these outsized ad buys, though, Romney could very well cruise to the White House in the Fall. A quick guide: ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from June 25-July 1).

Hottest Markets for the week 6/25-7/1 Hottest Markets for the week 6/18-6/24
1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1400, Romney 740 ROF 430, AFP 365, Priorities 150)
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1400, Romney 550, ROF 515, CWA 450)
3. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 630, AFP 300, ROF 300)
4. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 275, CWA 240, Priorities 200)
5. Denver, CO (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 140)
6. Norfolk, VA (Obama 1500, Romney 500, ROF 250, CWA 220, Priorities 100)
7. Ft. Myers, FL (Obama 1300, ROF 615, AFP 500)
8. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1500, Romney 425, ROF 300, AFP 200, Priorities 115)
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL (Obama 1500, ROF 375, AFP 330, Priorities 175)
10. Reno, NV (Obama 1500, Romney 370, ROF 230, AFP 200)
1. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: (Obama 1,074, Romney 981, Priorities 337, Restore 265, Crossroads 45)
2. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: (Obama 1,090, Romney 889, Priorities 280, Restore 240, Crossroads 51)
3. Colorado Springs, CO: (Romney 1,062, Obama 755, Restore 355, Priorities 226, Crossroads 40)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: (Obama 1,057, Romney 830, Restore 416, Crossroads 69)
5. Cincinnati, OH: (Obama 998, Romney 877, Restore 347, Crossroads 56)
6. Cleveland, OH: (Obama 951, Romney 625, Restore 229, Priorities 213, Crossroads 46)
7. Denver, CO: (Obama 885, Romney 825, Restore 225, Priorities 123)
8. Columbus, OH: (Obama 723, Romney 610, Priorities 341, Restore 199, Crossroads 69)
9. Charlotte, NC: (Romney 749, Obama 746, Restore 324, Crossroads 45)
10. Des Moines, IA: (Obama 740, Romney 623, Restore 207, Planned Parenthood 159, Crossroads 36)

Continue reading

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is IV — Whither North Carolina?

MSNBC’s First Read brings us our weekly red meat: the top 10 media markets where campaigns are spending real money to reach voters.  North Carolina has been a hot topic each week as I have argued from the beginning that it is not a Battleground state despite media misrepresentations to the contrary. Week after week, the fluctuation of ad spending in North Carolina has been intriguing — ranging from prominence for both campaigns, to solely prominent for Romney, to a large pick up last week, to barely making the top ten this week:

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from June 18-25).

Hottest Markets for the week 6/18-6/24 Hottest Markets for the week 6/11-6/17
1. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: (Obama 1,074, Romney 981, Priorities 337, Restore 265, Crossroads 45)
2. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: (Obama 1,090, Romney 889, Priorities 280, Restore 240, Crossroads 51)
3. Colorado Springs, CO: (Romney 1,062, Obama 755, Restore 355, Priorities 226, Crossroads 40)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: (Obama 1,057, Romney 830, Restore 416, Crossroads 69)
5. Cincinnati, OH: (Obama 998, Romney 877, Restore 347, Crossroads 56)
6. Cleveland, OH: (Obama 951, Romney 625, Restore 229, Priorities 213, Crossroads 46)
7. Denver, CO: (Obama 885, Romney 825, Restore 225, Priorities 123)
8. Columbus, OH: (Obama 723, Romney 610, Priorities 341, Restore 199, Crossroads 69)
9. Charlotte, NC: (Romney 749, Obama 746, Restore 324, Crossroads 45)
10. Des Moines, IA: (Obama 740, Romney 623, Restore 207, Planned Parenthood 159, Crossroads 36)
1. Columbus, OH: (Obama 1420, Crossroads GPS 501, Romney 428, Priorities USA 335)
2. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: (Romney 1105, Obama 750, Priorities USA 341, Crossroads GPS 326)
3. Des Moines, IA: (Romney 982, Obama 772, Planned Parenthood 481, Crossroads 272)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: (Romney 1106, Obama 842, Crossroads 507)
5. Reno, NV: (Obama 1,224, Romney 870, Crossroads 341)
6. Raleigh-Durham, NC: (Romney 1055, Obama 870, Crossroads 487)
7. Greensboro, NC: (Romney 1252, Obama 770, Crossroads 387)
8. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: (Romney 1004, Obama 700, Crossroads 367, Priorities 283)
9. Charlotte, NC: (Romney 1199, Obama 799, Crossroads 333)
10. Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, NC: (Obama 1175, Crossroads 1040)

The top 10 ad markets were spread between 5 states.(prior two weeks in parenthesis, more recent week first)

  • Virginia: 7624 vs 7331 last week (8995, 10585)
  • Ohio: 6284 vs 2684 (5615, 6410)
  • Colorado: 4116; no market in top 10 last week
  • North Carolina: 1864 vs 9367 last week (8975, 9135)
  • Iowa: 1765 vs 2507 (3400, 2740)

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Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is III — Saturating North Carolina

First Read again has the goods on campaign priorities with the top 10 political ad markets for the coming week.  Plenty of surprises and North Carolina shuffles a few slots.  No North Carolina market is in the top five but they comprise four of the next five. This  increased state commitment would be consistent with what we saw from NBC/SMG Delta. Is this the “go big or go home” push where the Obama campaign aggressively tries to move the needle for a couple weeks before shifting resources elsewhere?  We’ll be watching closely since we have argued from the beginning, North Carolina is not a Battleground State.

Below are this week’s 10 hottest TV markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from June 11-17).

Hottest Markets for the week 6/11-6/17 Hottest Markets for the week 6/4-6/10
1. Columbus, OH: (Obama 1420, Crossroads GPS 501, Romney 428, Priorities USA 335)
2. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: (Romney 1105, Obama 750, Priorities USA 341, Crossroads GPS 326)
3. Des Moines, IA: (Romney 982, Obama 772, Planned Parenthood 481, Crossroads 272)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: (Romney 1106, Obama 842, Crossroads 507)
5. Reno, NV: (Obama 1,224, Romney 870, Crossroads 341)
6. Raleigh-Durham, NC: (Romney 1055, Obama 870, Crossroads 487)
7. Greensboro, NC: (Romney 1252, Obama 770, Crossroads 387)
8. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: (Romney 1004, Obama 700, Crossroads 367, Priorities 283)
9. Charlotte, NC: (Romney 1199, Obama 799, Crossroads 333)
10. Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, NC: (Obama 1175, Crossroads 1040)
1. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Romney/1500, Obama/825, Crossroads/630, Priorities/400)
2. Columbus, OH (Romney/1500, Obama/815, Crossroads/600, Priorities/350)
3. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama/1600, Romney/850, Crossroads/600, Priorities/350)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney/1500, Obama/815, Crossroads/750)
5. Charlotte, NC (Romney/1500, Obama/750, Crossroads/600)
6. Richmond, VA (Romney/1200, Obama/575, Crossroads/450, Priorities/350)
7. Greensboro-High Point, NC (Romney/1000, Obama/700, Crossroads/675)
8. Cincinnati, OH (Romney/1200, Obama/600, Crossroads/550)
9. Des Moines, IA (Romney/850, Obama/550, Priorities/500, Crossroads/350)
10. Greenville-Spartanburg, NC (Crossroads/1200, Obama/950)
11. Raleigh-Durham, NC (Romney/900, Crossroads/700, Obama/575)

The top 10 ad markets were spread between 5 states:

  • North Carolina: 9367 vs 8975 last week (and 9135 the week prior)
  • Virginia: 7331 vs 8995 (2nd straight w-o-w decline)
  • Ohio: 2684 vs 5615 (2nd straight w-o-w decline)
  • Iowa: 2507 vs 3400
  • Nevada: 2435, first appearance in top 10

Continue reading

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is II — North Carolina Dropping

First read again picks up on the top 10 political ad markets with a lot of week-over-week surprises including more evidence North Carolina is not a Battleground state (or at least won’t be soon).

Hottest Markets for the week 6/4-6/10 Hottest Markets for the week 5/28-6/4
1. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Romney/1500, Obama/825, Crossroads/630, Priorities/400)
2. Columbus, OH (Romney/1500, Obama/815, Crossroads/600, Priorities/350)
3. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama/1600, Romney/850, Crossroads/600, Priorities/350)
4. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Romney/1500, Obama/815, Crossroads/750)
5. Charlotte, NC (Romney/1500, Obama/750, Crossroads/600)
6. Richmond, VA (Romney/1200, Obama/575, Crossroads/450, Priorities/350)
7. Greensboro-High Point, NC (Romney/1000, Obama/700, Crossroads/675)
8. Cincinnati, OH (Romney/1200, Obama/600, Crossroads/550)
9. Des Moines, IA (Romney/850, Obama/550, Priorities/500, Crossroads/350)
10. Greenville-Spartanburg, NC (Crossroads/1200, Obama/950)
11. Raleigh-Durham, NC (Romney/900, Crossroads/700, Obama/575)
1. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Obama/1500, Romney/1400, Crossroads/730, Priorities/450)
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama/1500, Romney/1500, Crossroads/750)
3. Greensboro-High Point, NC (Romney/1400, Obama/1100, Crossroads/780)
4. Columbus, OH (Romney/1400, Obama/1000, Crossroads/525, Priorities/365)
5. Raleigh-Durham, NC (Obama/1200, Romney/1100, Crossroads/840)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama/1100, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340, Priorities/315)
7. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama/1300, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340)
8. Charlotte, NC (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/515)
9. Cincinnati, OH (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/460)
10. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama/1400, Crossroads/630, Priorities/420)

North Carolina dropped in intensity by most every measure:

  • Last week 2 cities were in the top 5 and this week only one
  • Greensboro-High Point dropped from #3 last week to #7
  • Raleigh-Durham dropped from #5 to #11
  • Notice MSNBC included 11 spots this week so they could keep an NC city in the mix
  • Pro-Obama spend (measured in advertising points) dropped -900 to 2400 from 3300 among the 3 NC cities in the top 10
  • Even if we count the fourth NC city (#11 in ranking) versus only 3 last week, the spend is still down -350
  • Pro-Romney spend dropped -860 to 4975 from 5835 among the 3 NC cities in the top 10
  • But when including the extra city, Pro-Romney spend went up  740 to 6575 from 5835

Virginia saw a steep drop in Obama spending while Romney spending picked up:

  • Pro-Romney spend went from 5820 to 6030, up 210.
  • Pro-Obama spend went from 4765 to 2965, down -1800.

Ohio saw a repeat of Virginia: steep drop in Obama spending while Romney spending ticked up

  • Pro-Romney spend went from 3585 to 3850, up 265
  • Pro-Obama spend went from 2825 to 1765, down -1060

Iowa was the only state that saw an increase in Obama spending (up 50%) while Romney spending was up a hair

  • Pro-Romney spend went from 1440 to 1450, up 10
  • Pro-Obama spend went from 1300 to 1950, up 650

Below are the insights from MSNBC:

Some quick notes compared with last week:

  • Norfolk, VA remains the top market; just four states (VA, OH, IA, and NC) are on this top-10 list;
  • Columbus, OH goes from No.4 to No.2;
  • Cedar Rapids, IA goes from No.7 to No.3;
  • Charlotte goes from No.8 to No.5;
  • Colorado Springs, CO dropped out, meaning no Colorado markets are on this list.

UPDATE: Per CMAG via Charlie Cook’s column: Nevada has seen the most TV ad spend per electoral vote, followed by Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska-01 district, Virgina, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida.

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

No matter the campaign rhetoric where either side claims they will fight for votes, the “tell” in any Battleground is where a campaign actually spends its money. The guys over at First Read have great data on the top 10 markets for campaign ad spending between the two camps (and surrogates):

Hottest Markets for the week 5/28-6/4

1. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Obama/1500, Romney/1400, Crossroads/730, Priorities/450)
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA (Obama/1500, Romney/1500, Crossroads/750)
3. Greensboro-High Point, NC (Romney/1400, Obama/1100, Crossroads/780)
4. Columbus, OH (Romney/1400, Obama/1000, Crossroads/525, Priorities/365)
5. Raleigh-Durham, NC (Obama/1200, Romney/1100, Crossroads/840)
6. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama/1100, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340, Priorities/315)
7. Cedar Rapids, IA (Obama/1300, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340)
8. Charlotte, NC (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/515)
9. Cincinnati, OH (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/460)
10. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama/1400, Crossroads/630, Priorities/420)

*** Where everyone is advertising: Here’s also a snapshot of where everyone is advertising this week:
Obama ($7.3 million): CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA,
Romney ($2 million): IA, NC, OH, VA
Crossroads ($5 million): CO, FL, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA
Priorities ($1.1 million): CO, FL, OH, PA, VA

Note: I love the First Read headline spin that the campaigns are fighting on “GOP turf.” Every single one of these states was Blue in the last election.  How in hell is that “GOP turf”? Don’t they know Obama won in 2008?