“Actually Happened”

American Crossroads goes all “Minority Report” on Obama’s failed economic record with its latest ad. According to Politico:

American Crossroads and its affiliate Crossroads GPS are going up today with their biggest paid media push so far in the 2012 cycle, … on TV and radio in eight presidential battlegrounds and four Senate contests … On the presidential level, American Crossroads will spend $11 million on a spot called ‘Actually Happened,’ which focuses on the impact that President Obama said the stimulus would have on the unemployment rate. The spot features a man using charts and graphics to show where the president said unemployment would be around now, under 5.5 percent, compared to where it is, at 8.1 …

“The ad is running in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Crossroads GPS …  is spending an additional $1 million on radio in those states.  Another $4 million is being spent by GPS [on Senate races in] in North Dakota, Virginia and Montana, and American Crossroads is going up in Florida. … Republican outside groups are about to demonstrate the extent to which they can have impact as the 2012 cycle enters its final stretch. … [T]he case has been made that, especially given Mitt Romney’s own comparatively light advertising in the summer, the groups helped keep the race close in the face of Obama’s spending.”

Adding Up the Numbers in Ohio plus Battleground Focus

The Washington Post tallies up the total add spends in the all-important state of Ohio:

More than $39 million has been spent on television ads in Ohio by the two presidential candidates and their affiliated outside groups as of early July, according to data provided to the Fix by a Republican media buying firm, a massive outlay of campaign cash that re-affirms the centrality of the Buckeye State in the electoral calculus of both parties.  President Obama’s campaign has spent an eye-popping $22 million on ads in Ohio already in the race while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has dropped $6.4 million.

Outside groups are also making an impression

Crossroads GPS, the 501(c)(4) arm of American Crossroads, has spent $3.1 million on ads in Ohio (and that’s before the $25 million expenditure the group announced Friday morning). Americans for Prosperity, the Koch brothers group, has spent $1.8 million on ads in Ohio as has Restore Our Future, a super PAC run by former Romney aides. On the Democratic side, the biggest outside spender on ads in Ohio is Priorities USA Action, a super PAC run by former White House aides. Priorities has spent $2.8 million in the Buckeye State.

Where the Battleground money is being spent

[H]ere’s a look at the five states where Obama and Romney have spent the most on ads as of July 3.

Obama: 1. Ohio ($22 million) 2. Florida ($17 million) 3. Virginia ($11.4 million) 4. North Carolina ($10.9 million) 5. Iowa ($8.5 million)

Romney: 1. Ohio ($6.4 million) 2. North Carolina ($4.7 million) 3. Virginia ($2.8 million) 4. Colorado ($2.7 million) 5. Iowa ($2.7 million)

Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa make both lists. Colorado, which ranks fourth in spending for Romney, is sixth ($7.9 million) for Obama. Romney has spent just over $2 million in Florida but Crossroads GPS has dropped over $5 million on ads in the Sunshine State while Restore Our Future has spent $2.4 million there. Among the “swing” states where relatively little is being spent on ads includes Michigan (NO spending by either campaign), Wisconsin (NO spending by either campaign) and Pennsylvania ($5 million by Obama, zero by Romney).

Battleground State Ad Buy

Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS has been noticeably absent from the last two weekly ad buy break downs. Now we see his group jumping back into the fray with a sizable ad buy across most Battleground states except Pennsylvania and Wisconsin:

Crossroads GPS, a 501(c)(4) organization advised by former Republican strategist Karl Rove, is going on the air with a $25 million campaign focused on the national debt and the jobs market. The first ad, “Excuses,” will focus on Friday’s disappointing jobs numbers. “Excuses” is airing in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. The campaign begins July 10 and continues through early August.

Here’s a state-by-state breakdown of the entire $25 million campaign:

• Colorado – $1.8 million
• Florida – $6.5 million
• Iowa – $1.9 million
• Michigan – $2.1 million
• North Carolina – $2.7 million
• New Hampshire – $1.9 million
• Nevada – $1.3 million
• Ohio – $3.3 million
• Virginia – $3.4 million

The Battle for Virginia

Scott Conroy at real Clear Politics takes a look at one of the election’s most important states: Virginia.

In what both sides regard as one of the election’s three or four most critical swing states, Obama has opened up a slim yet significant three-point lead in the latest RCP average of Virginia polls.  Though he shows strength in other regions of the state, the president largely has the expansive D.C. suburbs to thank for that advantage.

Where the votes are: Fairfax, County:

In Fairfax, the Old Dominion’s most populous county, Obama bested John McCain by 61 percent to 39 percent in his seven-point Virginia victory in 2008. While he may not have to win the county by that wide a margin this time around, he is counting on Northern Virginia’s increasing diversity and its large federal workforce to provide a critical edge once again. “The economic influence of the federal government is probably outsized here,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, a Democrat who represents Virginia’s suburban 11th District, where residents are among the wealthiest in the nation. “We [also] look a lot more like the face of the country as a whole than ever before, and what’s interesting about that is it tends to favor Democratic candidates.”

The changing face of Virginia:

Weekly Ad Spending by State

Not to dissuade people from reading a post before they even start but MSNBC’s First Read ad spending numbers below suspiciously include pro-Obama Priorities USA #s that were not tabulated in the original research but failed to include $411k of actual Romney campaign ad spending that even this blog knew about Saturday morning at 7am. Clearly these numbers are not comprehensive so we’ll wait for more data before drawing too many conclusions on what the week’s ad spending tells you about campaign attitudes:

Here’s a look at the battleground ad spending for THIS WEEK, per data from NBC/SMG Delta. Bottom line: Team Obama (the campaign and its Super PAC) have a significant spending edge over Team Romney.

Ohio ($2.7mn): Obama $1.7M, Romney $277K, Crossroads GPS $514K, Priorities USA $166K
Florida ($2.4mn): Obama $1.2M, Crossroads GPS $794K, Priorities USA $289, Planned Parenthood Action Fund $149K
Virginia ($1.9mn): Obama $772K, Romney $128K, Crossroads GPS $615K, Priorities USA $145K, Planned Parenthood Action Fund $193K
North Carolina ($1.7mn): Obama $1.1M, Romney $193K, Crossroads GPS $449K
Colorado ($1.2mn): Obama $531K, Romney $90K [+$216K], Crossroads GPS $169K, Priorities USA $179K
Pennsylvania ($1.1mn): Obama $474K, Crossroads GPS $427K, Priorities USA $214K
Iowa ($983k): Obama $592K, Romney $103K, Crossroads GPS $185K, Planned Parenthood Action Fund $103K
New Hampshire ($907k): Obama $482K, Romney $33K [+$82K], Crossroads GPS $310K
Nevada ($831k): Obama $516K, Romney $30K [113K], Crossroads GPS $172K
Michigan ($223k): Crossroads GPS $223K
New Mexico ($18k): Obama $18K

Romney Campaign Eyes Pennsylvania

We’ve talked about Pennsylvania as a state that is a heavy lean for Obama within the Battleground state universe. And evidence of limited media buys in the state lead some to question the level of commitment by the Romney campaign towards the state.  However, the state is ripe with opportunity for Romney and as the AP story below reveals: “June is [the Romney PA campaign’s] big growth month.” That’s a good thing too because plenty of 2008 Obama voters are having second thoughts this time around:

Candi Ludwig is the face of Mitt Romney’s hopes in Pennsylvania…Ludwig, a registered Republican and mother of two teenagers, voted for Obama in 2008 when he won Pennsylvania by more than 10 percentage points. But now she has misgivings. “I really expected him to make changes,” she said as she ate lunch last week with her husband, Jim, at an outlet mall in Gettysburg. “But he didn’t. He disappointed me.” Such sentiments are prompting Romney and his allies to pour money into this large state even though Republican presidential nominees have lost here five straight times despite substantial efforts. Some independent analysts say the same result is likely this year, even if few expect Obama to repeat his double-digit victory.

Romney doesn’t even have to win Pennsylvania to make it a worthwhile venture:

But if Republicans can make Obama sweat and scrape for Pennsylvania, it will consume resources he otherwise could use in crucial states such as Florida and Ohio. It also might demoralize Democrats and assure Romney’s fans everywhere that the former Massachusetts governor has a solid chance to win the White House. Pennsylvania “is still an uphill climb for Romney,” but “conditions are nowhere near as advantageous for the president as they were in ’08,” says Christopher Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa. From Obama’s standpoint, Borick said, “there are a lot of little nagging issues.”

Momentum is with the Republicans in Pennsylvania:

In the 2010 midterm election … Republicans gained full control of the state Legislature and won the governor’s race.

Campaign Ad Buys — The Real Battlegrounds

Campaigns can talk all they want about where the real fight is for voters that will decide this election.  You’ll often hear campaign bravado like: “We’re fighting on GOP turf” or “We’re going to make them defend more states than ever before.” Despite all of this canned rhetoric, the true Battlegrounds are where the campaigns put precious resources to use on very expensive TV ad buys.  Thus far, both campaigns are holding nothing back:

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney and their allies so far have spent a jaw-dropping $87 million on TV ads in just a handful of presidential battleground states, an early and unprecedented explosion of spending for a general election still a full five months away. Viewers in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, a metro area of 260,000 people, have each been subject to about 330 ads already, according to the Iowa-based media firm Strategic America, and the largely rural state has already seen $6 million in presidential campaign advertising since late April, with four of its metropolitan areas ranking in the top 20 for spending nationwide.

But television is only one (expensive) medium:

Television ads are just one component of a presidential campaign’s multimillion-dollar effort to woo voters; the Romney and Obama teams will also spend heavily on tools from digital targeting to field operations to direct mail.

Most importantly, where are these ads running?

Most commercials the campaigns and super PACs are running are only airing in nine states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Those are your Battlegrounds and the ads are coming fast and furious:

“There hasn’t been a gentle ramp-up this year — it’s gone from zero to 60 very quickly,” said Ken Goldstein of Kantar-Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political spending.

Starting earlier:

The Obama campaign started running general election ads in late March, while the Republican nominating contest was still under way. Romney began spending on general election ads in April, after his remaining GOP rivals dropped out and the former Massachusetts governor became the party’s all-but-certain nominee. At least one independent group backing him went on the air in March with commercials intended to help him. The 2008 general election ad spending, by contrast, didn’t begin until late June, when Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination against rival Hillary Rodham Clinton and shifted focus to Republican John McCain.