The Wisconsin Voter: “Anger is the most powerful mobilizing force”

Much to my chagrin, thoughts (hopes?) of the Wisconsin recall being a proxy for the subsequent national election continue to diminish. It seems I am not alone in my skepticism on the transitive nature of the recall and admittedly both national camps have avoided the state. At the same time, favorable Walker polling simultaneously favors Obama in November although some smart analysis does indicate the margin of victory for Walker could portend a shift in the state towards Romney.

Despite the Wisconsin recall likely not having the 1:1 impact on November I hoped for, it is instructive to look closer at the Wisconsin voter today to better understand how each campaign can capitalize on the unusually motivated state. The invaluable Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel took a deep dive look at the Wisconsin voter and lived to tell about it:

In the War for Wisconsin, voters here have become famous for three things: participation, polarization and discord. In plainer language, they’re active, they’re divided and they’re angry. An angry citizen is an active citizen. That’s what pollsters believe. That’s what scholars have found. And that’s what 16 months of protests, petitions, rallies and recalls suggest. Bitter partisan conflict has coincided with extreme political engagement.

Voters are angry. But are they engaged?

Tuesday’s election is the culmination in Wisconsin of a spectacular activist eruption featuring the largest protests since Vietnam, one of the biggest petition drives in election history, and a recall movement without any precedent in American politics. The official turnout forecast for Tuesday is 60 to 65 percent of the state’s voting-age adults, which in the context of recent decades is a more or less insane figure. Dating back to 1950, average turnout in a mid-term election for governor is 47% and the highest was 52.4% in 1962. When last year’s state Supreme Court race became a proxy war over the governor’s agenda, turnout soared: 34% of the state’s voting-age adults voted in a judicial election – more than turned out for governor in some states in 2010. Just last month, with all the focus on a hot Democratic recall primary to decide Republican Scott Walker’s opponent, Walker’s supporters astonished the political world by turning out more than 600,000-strong to vote for the governor in a virtually uncontested GOP primary. It was the most votes for anybody in a gubernatorial primary in 60 years.

Romney Unleashes Diverse Surrogates in Battleground States

A candidate cannot be in all places at all times and it is important to have a stable of articulate supporters to amplify the campaign’s message to various audiences. Considering the narrow Battleground state focus and an even more narrow swath of persuadable voters in those states, it is increasingly important to inspire and employ surrogates who can bring a unique appeal to those targeted voters. Mitt Romney is wasting no time rolling out a line-up of heavy-hitters to carry his message:

Mitt Romney is mobilizing a fast-growing network of surrogates to help make his case with voters as his campaign begins to exert greater control over the GOP messaging operation. He is relying on a diverse cast of politicians, business leaders, athletes and celebrities to court key groups of voters, including social conservatives, Hispanics and suburban women.

National names include:

• Sen. John Thune (S.D.)
• Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty
• Former ambassador John Bolton
• Former New Hampshire governor John Sununu.

[A]ides are trying to build a more disciplined surrogate operation, distributing talking points to politicians and pundits whom they call upon to spread his message. Romney aides are now picking guests to appear on the Sunday political talk shows and holding Saturday conference calls to rehearse answers to likely questions, according to a campaign adviser. Other surrogates are booked for targeted television, radio and newspaper interviews to help build support among demographic groups with which Romney has struggled.

Women:
[T]he candidate’s wife, Ann, [looks] to be his most powerful surrogate and [aides] are developing a robust schedule of solo visits for her to help close the gender gap with Obama. they are considering having her campaign in nursing homes, schools and medical research facilities in suburban areas outside Philadelphia, Denver, Milwaukee and Charlotte, as well as in Northern Virginia and along Florida’s I-4 corridor. Other female surrogates are making similar pitches, including:

• Sen. Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
• South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
• Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.)

Conservatives Launch Group to Target Hispanics in Nevada

With Nevada on my mind I poked around the state news and found this interesting tidbit:

A new group designed to cut into the Democratic domination of the burgeoning Hispanic vote in Nevada will launch next week in Las Vegas. powered by national conservative groups and designed to have an impact in November.

The organization, called Nevada Hispanics, kicks-off one week from today at the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce and features local Americans for Prosperity boss Adam Stryker.

A solicitation that went out this week told recipients: “This is an opportunity to learn about Nevada Hispanics, and our mission of garnering greater Latino support for Conservative causes and candidates in our state.”

This could be a big development because, as outlined below, Obama’s appeal to Hispanics is at the center of his strategy to carry Nevada in November.  Stay tuned.