Tag Archives: Bucks County

Seven Battleground Counties to Watch on Election Night

Same original author as the earlier piece (Chris Palko) but an election night spin on each county with few repeats.  This guy does good work. Lots of smart info:

Looking for some shortcuts when it comes to projecting which candidate has the edge Tuesday night? Once returns start coming in, turn your focus to these seven counties—they will be small scale indicators of that state and national results:

Prince William County, VA
Virginia will be one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, and Prince William County is the most important county there. Romney needs to win the county to win Virginia. George W. Bush and Bob McDonnell were able to win the county rather solidly. There has been an influx of immigrants in the past decade, and as a consequence it has a somewhat more Democratic lean than before. This will also be a good check to see if the Romney and Obama campaigns’ assumptions about the demographics of the electorate are correct.

Lake County, OH
This is the closest county in the most important state. Lake County is the eastern suburbs of Cleveland and the best gauge for how the entire state will vote. In 2004, Bush won the county by the same margin as he won the state. Obama ran a bit worse than his state percentages in 2008 but was able to win.  Watching Lake County is the best shortcut for projecting Ohio results on election night.

Bucks County, PA
In the critical suburban Philadelphia area, Chester County is most likely going for Romney and Montgomery and Delaware Counties will go for Obama. The swingiest of them all is Bucks County, north of Philadelphia.  Monday’s Romney rally that garnered some 30,000 supporters was held here for exactly that reason. In 2004, Bucks went for John Kerry by three percentage points, the exact same margin as the rest of the state. It has trended right in the past few years, as Republican Pat Toomey won the county 53 percent to 47 percent in his 2010 Senate race. Romney has to keep the margins close in suburban Philadelphia, and he has to win Bucks to do so.

Jefferson County, CO
In a heavily polarized state, the Denver suburbs hold the balance of power. Jefferson County, along with its suburban neighbors, voted for Bush in 2004 by small margins and then flipped to Obama in 2008. Romney had one of his most memorable campaign rallies at Red Rocks Amphitheater, which is in Jefferson County. Whichever candidate wins this county is going to win Colorado.

Washoe County, NV
The dynamic of Nevada politics is Democratic Clark County against Republican outstate areas, with Reno in the middle. For Romney to win Nevada, he has to win Washoe County. In 2004 and 2008, it matched the state percentages for Bush and Obama. A win here doesn’t guarantee Romney a victory in Nevada, but it is a necessary component.

Racine County, WI
Racine County is slightly more Republican than Wisconsin as a whole. Bush narrowly won it in 2004, while he barely lost the state overall.  Even so, anything more than a narrow Romney victory would augur well for him in a county that is a representative blend of urban, suburban and rural areas. It’s also worth watching due to the potential gains in Southern Wisconsin that could accrue with Paul Ryan, their congressman on the ticket. The potential for adding independents and some Democrats, who have voted for Ryan for years, to the Romney column could be decisive in a close state.

Oakland County, MI
The county that Mitt Romney grew up in is worth watching for a few reasons. First, if Romney wants to pull an upset in Michigan, he must win Oakland County. Second, it is precisely the sort of northern affluent suburb Republicans have had problems with at the presidential level for the past 20 years. Gains here would be indicative of Romney strength in other affluent suburbs in key states and a significant difference between a winning Romney coalition and the previous winning coalition that George W. Bush assembled.

Battleground Counties: Pennsylvania Edition

Bucks County native, the guy who called the Paul Ryan VP pick and alum of the right University, Robert Costa uses tonight’s massive Romney Rally in Pennsylvania to drop some knowledge on one of our favorite topics: Battleground Counties — specifically Pennsylvania Battleground Counties.

Mitt Romney is poised to win Pennsylvania — if he can stay competitive in the moderate suburbs and put up large numbers in Pennsylvania’s conservative pockets. “If he runs up big margins in the central and western parts of the state, and holds his own in the Philadelphia suburbs, he can win it, even if he gets his butt beat in Philadelphia,” says former Republican senator Rick Santorum. “Even then, he’ll need a little magic.” … It won’t be easy. “Republicans have been here before,” says G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College. “In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush got to within three or four points in the last week, and ended up losing both times. They know how to get to the red zone, but they haven’t figure out how to get into the end zone.” Four years ago, John McCain lost every county in suburban Philadelphia…Winning Pennsylvania is complicated. In a way, it’s a microcosm of America. It has big, deep-blue cities, sprawling, deep-red rural counties, and highly populated suburbs. It has a pro-life Democratic senator (Bob Casey), but five times elected a pro-choice Republican (Arlen Specter) to the upper chamber. It counts a Democratic grandee (Ed Rendell) as a former governor, and Pat Toomey, the former Club for Growth president, as a senator…For Romney to win, five key counties need to either shift toward Romney or see depressed Democratic turnout. And most important, these shifts need to happen in a synchronized fashion. For example, even if Romney does better than McCain in the suburbs, he needs turnout among Philadelphia Democrats to be average and Republican turnout in western Pennsylvania to be heavy.

Bucks County 

2008 result: Obama +9
2004 result: Kerry +3

Bucks County is a tale of two suburbs. In upper Bucks, there are thousands of stucco-and-brick mansions that are home to well educated, socially liberal professionals… In lower Bucks, you have thousands of Levittown homes…The people here are blue-collar Democrats. Many of them had union jobs at Fairless Works, a U.S. Steel mill, until it closed, and now work in non-industrial sectors. Together, these two suburban areas and their 600,000 residents form a capricious political powerhouse…To win Bucks, you need to win the hearts of the Reagan Democrats and the fickle soccer moms who live in the palaces on former farmland…As a reserved, Harvard-trained businessman, Romney appeals temperamentally to upper-Bucks Republicans, and his economic-focused campaign appeals to Levittown’s many out-of-work residents.

Philadelphia County

2008 result: Obama +67
2004 result: Kerry +60

In 2008, Obama garnered 30,000 more votes in Philadelphia than Kerry did, giving him more than half-a-million votes in a single county. That was about one-sixth of Obama’s statewide total — and his approximate margin of victory. In the rest of the state, Obama and McCain more or less tied, but McCain ended up losing by about 600,000 votes. McCain’s effective tie in 66 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties wasn’t enough, and Romney’s campaign knows that it has to come out well ahead in the rest of the state in order to eke out a victory once the Philadelphia returns are tallied. You can be sure that Obama adviser David Axelrod is counting on Philadelphia’s old-fashioned Democratic and public-union machine, which is managed by Representative Bob Brady, to show up.

Luzerne County

2008 result: Obama +8
2004 result: Kerry +3

Luzerne County is in the Scranton–Wilkes-Barre metropolitan area in northeastern Pennsylvania…the county is trending Republican. Senator Toomey nearly won Luzerne County two years ago, coming within a thousand votes of victory in a county that Obama carried by eight points. According to local election officials, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in registration by a hefty margin, but Republican and independent registrations have jumped markedly since Obama’s 2008 campaign…The Romney campaign has a bustling campaign office in Luzerne. Their goal is to repeat Toomey’s 2010 model, which means a near-constant focus on the economy with a bipartisan message…These voters are looking for an economic alternative, and they’re unhappy with Washington. Two years ago, Republican Lou Barletta, a vocal critic of illegal immigration, won the area’s congressional seat [ousting powerful 13-term incumbent Paul Kanjorski by nearly 10-points].

Cambria County

2008 result: Obama +1
2004 result: Bush +2

Cambria County is east of Pittsburgh, and it includes Johnstown, a Democratic city that was the late John Murtha’s political base for decades, as well as Republican-leaning suburbs closer to Pittsburgh…Cambria County is full of families who grew up with fathers who worked in coal mines and steel mills, and many of the best jobs in the county remain in the energy sector. Expect Obama to pay a price for his regulations…Senator Toomey carried Cambria two years ago, and Republican Keith Rothfus, who narrowly lost his House race in 2010, is running strong against the county’s incumbent congressman, Democrat Mark Critz, a former Murtha staffer. Romney should also be helped by U.S. Senate candidate Tom Smith, a former coal executive from the region who is running countless TV ads about Obama’s “war on coal.”

Lancaster County

2008 result: McCain +12
2004 result: Bush +32

Lancaster County and neighboring York County make up the base of the Pennsylvania GOP. Running up solid totals here gives you some breathing room, especially if Philadelphia’s suburbs don’t turn completely red and the turnout in the western counties is less than expected. … Politically, Pennsylvania Dutch Country is often overlooked, but it is more populated than people think, with over 500,000 residents, and turnout here can change the entire dynamic of a Republican’s statewide effort…But Romney’s late entry into Pennsylvania makes turnout in Lancaster harder to predict…Looking to win the state, Romney must hope that local conservatives don’t mind his absence.

 

30,000 at Romney Rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania

I’ll use this post to update as pictures and info comes across:

This was the line to get in a couple hours ago and then in a photo by Kevin Sheridan, the nighttime swarm:

Now below are photos from earlier that I would have gotten to if not for so many computer problems today. Check out our on-the-scene reporter jackgdovin’s flickr page for these awesome shots of the line to get in:

Romney Rally in Yardly, Pennsylvania Today (Nov 4) 5pm

Massive rally for Mitt Romney in Bucks County, Pennsylvania scheduled later today. The crowd is going to be huge so get there hours early because you won’t want to miss this rally!

You’re Invited to a Victory Event with Mitt Romney & the Republican Team! with The Marshall Tucker Band!

When: Sunday, November 4th, 2012

Doors Open 2:00 PM | Event Begins 5:00 PM

Where: Shady Brook Farm, 931 Stony Hill Road in Morrisville, PA 19067

To register for the event, click here.

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible. No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

For questions, contact us at: TeamPA@mittromney.com | (717) 746-8098
For Important Campaign Updates: Text (PA) to GOMITT (466488)

Is Obama Nervous About Pennsylvania?

You betcha!

And from our official campaign stop tracker No Tribe: “On Monday November 5, President Clinton will campaign in Pittsburgh and Scranton as well as hold two events in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.”

This is OFA’s top surrogate. Four stops in Pennsylvania the day before the election.

Any questions who’s winning?

Romney Rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania Sunday (Nov 4) 5:30pm

Hat-tip to No Tribe for the alert. Mitt Romney is rallying the troops in the Philadelphia suburb of Morrisville, Pennsylvania on Sunday looking to paint that state red!

You’re Invited to a Victory Event with Mitt Romney & the Republican Team!

When: Sunday, November 4th, 2012

Doors Open 2:30 PM | Event Begins 5:30 PM

Where: Shady Brook Farm, 931 Stony Hill Road in Morrisville, PA 19067

To register for the event, click here.

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible. No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

For questions, contact us at: TeamPA@mittromney.com | (717) 746-8098
For Important Campaign Updates: Text (PA) to GOMITT (466488)

Romney Super Saturday in Pennsylvania

The Keystone State had Super Saturdays at the opening of its Bucks County field office.  Offices opened across Pennsylvania in Erie and Beaver also:

Statewide and nationally, volunteers will make hundreds of thousands of voter contacts by phone and in person. July was the earliest the RNC has tested its ground game operation. With a rising unemployment rate and a record 42 months of 8 percent plus unemployment in the news today and President Obama’s continued failure to keep his promises and help the middle class, we expect hundreds of volunteers on the phones and knocking on doors to promote Governor Romney’s focus on job creation and economic growth. Please join us for our Bucks County GOP Victory Office Grand Opening and Super Saturday Rally with Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick.

Bucks County Victory Office Opening and Super Saturday Rally
Saturday, August 4th at 10 AM
Special Guest:  Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick

Bucks County GOP Victory Office
115 North Broad Street
Doylestown, PA 18901

The office will be open from 9:00AM to 9:00PM this Saturday, and every Monday-Saturday from now until the election.  Volunteers are encouraged to drop by to help or contact the Victory Field Director below.

Contact Blake Gober, Bucks County Victory Office Director at bgober@pagop.org or 484-250-3183 to Volunteer.

Romney Bus Tours Battleground Counties

Even though we pointed out that the bus tour travels through all states won by Obama (complete schedule here), ABC drilled down a little further and identified that many of the stops were in all-important Battleground Counties — one of our favorite topics:

In New Hampshire:

Romney visits the towns of Stratham and Milford. Stratham is located in Rockingham County, in the southeastern most portion of the state. Barack Obama narrowly carried Rockingham in 2008, defeating Sen.  John McCain by about 1 percentage point. Milford is located in Hillsborough County, another blue county in 2008.  Obama carried this one by a margin of about 3 percentage points.

In Pennsylvania:

Weatherly and Quakertown are located in Carbon County and Bucks County, respectively, two counties that went blue the last time around. Obama won Carbon County by roughly 2 percentage points and carried Bucks County by about 9.

In Ohio there are no pure Battleground Counties on the tour. Brunswick in is red Medina County (McCain: 53, Obama: 45) but the town is right on the border of Cuyahoga County that Obama carried 69-30 thanks to strong city support in Cleveland.  Newark is in red Licking County (McCain 57-41), but its neighboring county is Franklin County that Obama carried 60-39. Troy is in lightly populated Miami County that McCain carried decisively (63-35 ) but its adjoining county is the far more populous Montgomery County that Obama won 53-46.

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Romney Bus Tour: “Every Town Counts” Complete Schedule

A lot of excitement has surrounded the Romney campaign following the announced Battleground state bus tour. Specific dates and details were hard to come by but I have pieced much of it together. I expect to update this post as details emerge.

June 15, New Hampshire (2 stops)

  • Stratham, 10:30am: is the first stop on the tour during which Romney will meet with America’s families and business owners in small towns.  Romney is scheduled to appear at the Scammans’ Bittersweet Farm at 10:30 a.m. Friday, June 15. Doors open at 9:30am. To RSVP and to get tickets to Friday’s event in Stratham, visit www.mittromney.com/states/new-hampshire, call 835-4073 or e-mail TeamNH@mittromney.com.
  • Milford, 2pm: Mitt Romney and his wife Ann arrive on the Oval here on Friday, they will be joined by state Sen. Peter Bragdon, a Romney supporter. Romney will be on the Oval here on Friday for what is being billed as an invitation-only ice cream social. Getting an invitation, however, seems easy. According to Milford Police Chief Fred Douglas, the Romney group is slated to arrive on the Oval sometime between 1:30 and 2 p.m. The email invitation sent out by the Romney campaign indicated that “doors” will open to the Oval park area at 1 p.m. and that the social would start at 2.

June 16, Pennsylvania (3 stops)

  • Weatherly, 8:45am: Doors open at 7:45am. RSVP  here. Romney is expected to visit  Weatherly Casting & Machine Co. at 300 Commerce St in the Carbon County borough Saturday.
  • Quakertown, 12:40pm:  Romney will head to Bucks County holding a brief rally at the Wawa gas station, 1960 John Fries Highway in Milford Township on Route 663 near the Quakertown interchange of the Pennsylvania Turnpike’s Northeast Extension. Sen. Pat Toomey is expected to join the Pennsylvania leg of the bus tour in Quakertown and continue with Romney onto Saturday evening’s rally at Cornwall Iron Furnace.
  • Cornwall, 4:45pm: Romney is rallying at Cornwall Furnace, a Lebanon County charcoal fueled ironmaking complex. Doors open at 3:45pm. Sign up to attend here.

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