The weather is beautiful, temps around 70.Wait times are not extraordinarily long despite an early report from KMGH 7 (ABC) in Denver saying the lines had wait times of an hour or more. With a very short ballot here in the state, it takes less than 5-7 minutes. If your read everything, of course, it’ll take 45 minutes or longer. If you bring a cheat sheet of how you’re going to vote, less than 3 minutes. The other Denver stations did not report any waiting problems.Yesterday, the Secretary of State’s office checked out those voting machines recording an Obama vote, in Pueblo county (strong Dem) when the Romney button was pushed. It was determined those touch-screen machines were set to the most sensitive setting. That said, when the Obama button was pressed, the vote was recorded as Obama. Call it curious.
The Secretary of State’s office finally put in the clarification that vote totals include in-person early voting, received mail-in ballots, and received absentee ballots, which makes better sense numerically speaking. As of this morning’s report, 1,909,969 votes have been cast. This would leave around 800,000 people casting votes today in their precincts. The total number of active voters is roughly 2.7 million. Another 912,000 voters are classified as inactive. Inactive voters include those that some sort of problem with their registration, primarily address. If an inactive voter showed up to vote, they would have to vote provisional. Whether it would be included in the final tally would be at the discretion of the county election official. The D/R split in the this morning’s report is R+2.6. The D/R split with all parties is R+1.8.
Has tightened up considerably over the weekend as more mail-in and absentee ballots have been received. The Republicans have a 390 ballot lead over the Democrats. This county will be decided by the unaffiliateds (independents). In the morning report, 62,936 unaffiliated ballots were received. What may tip the election is that many people living in this county have mortgages that are underwater. Also, it was the epicenter of bank foreclosures and bankruptcies in 2009-10, before easing last year. However, the foreclosure rate is starting to pick up.
The lead has held, slightly increasing to 6,639 more Republican ballots than Democrat. The big race, however, is for CD 6. The Democrats have made a serious run for this seat and it’s considered by RCP as a toss-up. It’s likely to be held by Republican incumbent Mike Coffman, who is quite popular in the Denver Metro area.
The Democrats are holding their large lead in Denver County by a 76-24 margin. In Boulder County, the Democrats appeared to have woken up and has provided an equally impressive 70-30 margin. In Pueblo County, the Democrats have established a comfortable 65-35 margin. It appears they are performing as expected. The lone standout is Adams County, it appears the Republicans have made an effort to mind the gap where the Democrats have a 57-43 margin. Adams County has been solid blue as Denver in previous election cycles.
Similarly, the Republicans are holding fast in their strongholds. In El Paso County, the Republicans hold a 68-32 margin. In Douglas County, a 71-29 margin. In Mesa County, it is a 69-31 margin. And, in Weld County, it is a 62-38 margin. In the rural counties, The Republicans hold a sizeable lead over the Democrats in the rural counties, at least a 60-40 margin.
The key are firmly held in the hands of the unaffiliated voters. If they split according to the county they live in, the split would 51-49 in favor of the Republicans. Public Policy Polling has claimed the Obama campaign holds a 6-point lead among the independents, thus giving him the upper hand coming into election day. The 6-point lead is very similar to the advantage Obama held in 2008. If Obama is holding a 6-point lead, why he is down 35K votes at the start of the day. For Romney to win, it comes down to today’s GOTV effort and how well Romney connected with the independent voters here. If the rallies are any indication, he may be in good shape. The same can be said for Obama.