Tag Archives: ads

Ads or Votes? You Decide

This is a lesson for candidates and organizations who want to win rather than consultants who want to bilk clients for millions in fees:

Judging by the current vote totals, Romney’s nationwide operation fell far short of McCain’s in 2008.  In fact, Romney currently trails McCain by around 2 million votes.  2 million!  That number is mind-boggling.  How did the Republican candidate facing the worst president in modern history manage to get 2 million fewer votes than in 2008? Granted, that number may narrow a bit as more votes are counted, but it’s astonishing that Romney’s votes are even in the neighborhood of McCain’s.

GOTV Fail

[T]he Republican party establishment’s micro-targeting of voters, from surveying voters to a get-out-the-vote, or GOTV, operation — if you can even call it an operation — was a joke.  Take Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, for example.  Had Romney won those states, he would be celebrating victory today.  The media would have you believe that he was trounced there.  That’s not the case. Romney lost all four states — and the presidency — by less than 400,000 votes.  He lost Colorado by 111,000, Florida by 47,000, Ohio by 100,000, and Virginia by 108,000.  That’s it. Romney was locked out of the White House by about 366,000 votes.

Ads versus votes

Now imagine an alternate universe in which the Republican party’s consultants, power brokers, and money men invested in legitimate micro-targeting and GOTV efforts with technology that works (like Gravity. . . not Orca). Instead, millions were spent on endless ads that not only failed to move the needle in the age of TiVo and DVR but will keep the lights on for many TV stations that are less than friendly to the conservative movement.

Priorities

According to news reports, American Crossroads — by far the best-funded force outside the RNC and the congressional committees — and its affiliates raked in $300 million during the 2012 election cycle.  Imagine if a fraction of that money had been spent on voter identification and GOTV efforts in the states mentioned above. It’s not like it was a secret as to where this election was going to be won or lost. It was a universe of no more than 9 states. Think about just $2M per state invested into GOTV. That’s $18M well spent. Instead, that money now pads the bank accounts of various individuals who, if not already millionaires before this cycle started, certainly are now.

It’s the difference between President Obama and President Romney

Bigger, Better America

Colorado: State of the race, early voting and polls — By David Ramos

Here is a guest post by one of our readers:

Readers expressed concern on the state of the presidential race in Colorado – particularly after reading a Denver Post article suggesting Obama is leading in early voting despite Republicans voting in greater numbers than their Democratic counterparts. To address those concerns, below is an overview on polling and voting dynamics in Colorado.

Though Colorado’s demographics have changed the past few years, especially with the influx of people from the west coast moving into the state. Most have resettled in the Denver suburbs located in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. Changes in voting patterns in those two counties began to change in 2004. Despite those changes, Bush 43 comfortably won those counties in 2004 albeit by a narrower margin compared to 2000. The bulk of Democratic votes in the state come from Denver, Boulder, and Adams counties, and Pueblo county in the southern part of the state. To win statewide, both parties rely on the independent (unaffiliated) voters to provide the margin of victory.

Through Friday morning, early voting in Colorado has the Republicans with a narrow lead:

Total number of ballots cast – 1,462,163

Republicans voting – 547,150
Democrats voting –  509,091
Unaffiliated (independent) voting – 390,875
Third party voting – 15,047

In three swing counties considered crucial to the Romney campaign, there is evidence suggesting he’s likely to be ahead:

Jefferson County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 6,160.
Larimer County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 4,624.
Arapahoe County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 3,209.

These numbers do not include those absentee and mail-in ballots that have been returned. The total number of registered voters is approximately 3.6 million.

Colorado, as a whole is a difficult state to gauge. While voters may be willing to vote Republican at one level, they’re willing to turn around and vote Democratic at another. Floyd Ciruli, who polled for Gary Hart, said this is what makes Colorado voters unpredictable, and polling them especially difficult. In 2004, while it was clear Colorado voters were willing to re-elect Bush 43, voters turned around voted in the Democrats into the majority in the state legislature. While many national polls suggested Colorado was tied at 48, Ciruli said Bush 43 was never in danger of losing the state – he would win by a narrower margin (which he did 52-48).

Other examples of an unpredictable Colorado electorate are:

In 2002, when incumbent Republican US Senator Wayne Allard was running for re-election, many pollsters (national and local) considered Allard to be roadkill. Allard won re-election by a comfortable 5-point margin.
In 1996, polling indicated Clinton would carry the state. When Dole carried the state, it was considered to be quite a surprise.
In 1992, Perot had siphoned away votes from Bush 41 to allow Clinton to carry the state with only 43% of the vote. Bush 41 was expected to carry the state by a razor thin margin.

In 2004, the Kerry campaign and the DNC began to organize large voter registration drives, in conjunction with ACORN, to develop a more friendly voter base in hopes of carrying the state. Despite the effort, they were unable to register enough Democratic voters to flip the state. If 2004 taught the Democrats anything, it was to begin the voter drives earlier and have them more often. In 2008, the Obama campaign and the DNC, again with help from ACORN, organized the voter drives, registering large numbers of voters (I want to say around 100,000 new voters, but am unsure of the total) particularly in the Denver metro area.

In 2008, Obama established a 40-33 lead in early voting over McCain. The lead was evaporated by the end of the early voting period. The McCain campaign, however, was poorly organized in Colorado. Voter contact (phone, in-person, robo-call) was quite limited, TV and radio advertising was less than half than Bush 43 levels in 2004. Even direct mail was substantially less than Obama. The campaign stops weren’t many – may be five or six total. You knew McCain was going lose. While Obama was better organized, McCain lost Colorado by being an uncompetitive candidate. Independents were willing to give Obama a chance, voting for him by a 9-point margin. Moreover, enough Republican voters stayed home to cement McCain’s loss.

With the changing demographics in Colorado, Ciruli indicated that for Republicans to be successful, they need to keep the margins close in Democratic and swing areas (minding the gap), win a simple majority of independents, and run their vote totals up elsewhere in the state – particularly in the Republican strongholds of Colorado Springs (El Paso County) and Grand Junction (Mesa County) must be carried by at least a 65-35 margin. Colorado is largely a conservative state outside the Denver metro area. For Democrats to be successful, Ciruli said they need to carry the solid Democratic areas by large margins, run even on independents, and hope they have enough total votes at the end.

In 2008, Obama won independents 54-46. In the Colorado Springs and Grand Junction areas, McCain won 55-45. In the Democratic and swing areas, McCain did little to keep those margins close. Clearly, McCain’s poor effort gave Colorado to the Obama column.

Seeing how Bush 43 ran his 2000 and 2004 campaigns, the Romney team built their campaign in the state along similar lines. That is, identify and develop their reliable voter base, then expand upon it. While polling suggested Colorado was slightly leaning Obama or even, the reality was/is it’s not the case. The independents in Colorado are deeply dissatisfied with Obama. Those that voted for Obama see him as a bait-and-switch politician. Though initially hesitant of Romney, the first debate at DU (University of Denver) was more than enough to convince them to vote for Romney. Whether it’s enough to flip it back to the Republican column, the early voting numbers and strong rallies suggest it may.

I hope this gives you a flavor of how things are unfolding in Colorado.

— David Ramos

Revenge Or Love Of Country

Pennsylvania in Play Update

The pieces to the puzzle keep coming together for a Keystone State turn on November 6:

UPDATE: The rally is expected in the Philadelphia suburbs — no BS spin this is really for eastern Ohio.  Also robo-calls in Philly suburbs with an anti-Obamacare message happening.

The next Vice President Paul Ryan is stumping in Middletown, Pennsylvaia on Saturday (Harrisburg Airport)

Sources on the ground in the Philadelphia suburbs are getting robo-calls from Fred Thompson on behalf of Romney-Ryan

Pennsylvania ranks 4th nationwide in ad spending this week between the 2 camps is $13.7 million: Team Romney $10.8mm versus Team Obama $2.9mm

Romney-Ryan Billboards are on the New Jersey Turnpike in the Philadelphia suburbs

Obama Ads Going Up in Michigan

Expanding the map … which is of course a sign of weakness in the Romney campaign according to Jim Messina. The final tweet below by Rick Wiley is important because look at what’s happening: Obama playing nothing but defense looking to hold FRINGE Battlegrounds while Romney is on nothing but offense. If you can’t tell which way this election is likely to fall, you’re not playing close attention:

From Mark Halperin:

Both sides have enough money for these end-game ad forays. The real issues remain candidate time/visits, the psy-ops involved here, and the belief of some Republicans that a combination of Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could surprise on Election Day.

Crushed By Your Policies — New Romney Ad in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania In Play — Romney Ads Going State-wide

Thanks to “Tone Loc” for the tip, Romney ads going state-wide:

Mitt Romney is launching a statewide advertising campaign in Pennsylvania. The Republican presidential candidate is making a final-week bid to defeat President Barack Obama in territory long considered safe for Democrats. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state in nearly a quarter century. Recent polls suggest the race there is close.

Republican officials with knowledge of the plan report that Romney’s campaign will begin running ads statewide as soon as Wednesday. The buy includes the expensive Philadelphia broadcast market, where Romney’s campaign was reluctant to invest earlier in the month. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss campaign strategy.

Restore Our Future (Pro-Romney) Launching Pennsylvania Ad Campaign

This is the SuperPAC of ex-Romney staffers so they’d be as close to reflecting Romney campaign sentiments as any organizations and they are clearly seeing something in the Keystone State:

Mitt Romney’s super PAC, Restore our Future, is launching an 11th-hour ad blitz in Pennsylvania, POLITICO has learned. ROF is going up Tuesday with a $2.1 million ad buy across every Pennsylvania market, including pricey Philadelphia. The group will air a spot, “New Normal,” that lashes President Obama on the economy and is already up in other parts of the country.

The late push for Pennsylvania comes as some internal GOP polling has shown the always-elusive Keystone State to be within a few points. But other public polling, including a survey released over the weekend by the Philadelphia Inquirer, shows Obama enjoying a lead outside the margin.  Romney’s campaign is not airing ads in Pennsylvania and the candidate himself has not been to the state recently.  Paul Ryan recently held a rally at a hangar outside Pittsburgh, but that was partly intended for Ohio consumption. But with Romney closing the gap nationally with Obama, money has been flooding into the GOP super PACs. The conservative group Americans for Job Security went up with a TV buy in Philadelphia over the weekend. So groups like ROF have a bit more of a luxury to try to broaden the political map.

Lena Dunham: Your First Time PARODY

I almost posted the actual Obama ad because I thought it was so awful, it needed more attention to push women into Romney’s camp.  But this parody does the job just as well while wonderfully mocking that gawd-awful ad allegedly directed at loathsome hipsters:

Romney SuperPAC Goes Retro Targeting Battleground Voters

I like the “different” thinking by the pro-Romney SuperPAC Ending Spending Action Fund.  This group is better know by its main backer Joe Rickets, founder of TD Ameritrade:

This is the point in the presidential race where voters have been slammed with so many TV ads that campaign strategists wonder how they can possibly cut through the clamor.

And that can lead to some unorthodox tactics.

In a retro move for a new media age, one conservative super PAC is spending more than $1 million in Wisconsin and four other battlegrounds on a breezy, pro-Romney, 12-page color “magazine” for insert into daily and weekly newspapers. It features boosterish profiles of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and even comes with a campaign-themed crossword puzzle (clue for 1 Down is the “the burger company where Paul Ryan worked as a kid”).

“We’re trying to get outside the clutter box,” says Will Feltus, who did media buying and targeting for the 2004 Bush re-election effort, and is now working on the $10 million independent ad campaign funded by conservative billionaire Joe Ricketts, founder of TD Ameritrade.

A lot of that $10 million has gone into TV, radio and online ads. But the newspaper insert, so popular with big retailers, is an unusual vehicle for a political campaign. The group’s rationale is two-fold:

  • the airwaves are almost hopelessly saturated with TV spots, and
  • newspaper readers are highly cost-effective targets for political communications because of their propensity to vote.

The group, Ending Spending Action Fund, says it has printed more than 4 million inserts for distribution in Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia and Florida. They will show up in some weekly papers on Thursday and daily papers on Sunday.

“The basic idea is that print is the new ‘new media,’” says Feltus, citing data from Scarborough Research that shows the correlation between voting and media consumption is stronger for newspaper use than for TV, radio or the Internet. The chart below was put together by Feltus’ firm, National Media Inc., based on Scarborough’s 2011 surveys of more than 200,000 adults.

Big Bird, Binders & Bayonets

This is great news…I really wanted this

Restore Our Future (Pro-Romney) SuperPAC Launches $17.7 million Ad Campaign

You can’t take it with you and Restore Our Future is unloading the ammunition (bayonets and all!)  in these final weeks:

Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, released two new TV spots as part of a $17.7 million ad campaign launched Tuesday in 10 battleground states.

One ad, “Genuinely Cares,” features an on-camera testimonial from Sgt. Peter Damon, whose injuries while serving in Iraq left him a double amputee. Damon recalls meeting Romney when the GOP nominee was serving as Massachusetts governor and says Romney “helped make a huge difference” in his life. The commercial showcases the compassionate side of Romney, who has often struggled to connect and has been branded as out of touch by his opponents.

The second ad, “Better,” focuses on President Barack Obama’s economic policies. A narrator states that “high unemployment has become normal” during Obama’s first term, while also citing the debt and credit downgrades. The spot is a similar to previous ads that have targeted the president’s economic record.

Both ads will air between Oct. 23 and Oct. 29 and will be rotated across the ten states, according to a press release from the super PAC. A state-by-state breakdown of the ad buy is below. Not surprisingly, $7 million of the total is geared toward Ohio and Florida — considered the must-win states this cycle.

  • Colorado: $1.2 million
  • Florida: $4.0 million
  • Iowa: $1.2 million
  • Michigan: $1.6 million
  • Nevada: $1.6 million
  • New Hampshire: $0.5 million
  • North Carolina: $1.8 million
  • Ohio: $3.0 million
  • Virginia: $2.9 million
  • Wisconsin: $1.3 million

The selections are smart tactically as these states put Romney well over 270 so why get greedy and potentially leave one of these on the table.  Putting the bow on North Carolina but still no Pennsylvania 😦

Crossroads Generation – Dollar Saved Club

‘Apology Tour”

The Obama Plan

“Not Fixed”

Minnesota Has One of This Week’s Top 10 Ad Markets

[See below for better context]

Try to tell me Minnesota isn’t in play when in a week with more than $58 million being spent on political ads, a Minnesota market cracks the top 10 in spending and no one mentions that?

Full credit to our commenter Adam for helping us with mid-western geography that inspired this post.

Minnesota has been showing up a lot on this blog that is restricted to only the Battlegrounds. But in the weekly top 10 ad buys post below, MSNBC mislabeled the following market as an Iowa market: “Rochester-Mason City-Austin (Iowa).” This market is three cities on the Minnesota/Iowa border.  According to the broadcasting index, there are 6 major stations in this market and 4 are in Minnesota (ABC, NBC, FOX and PBS) and 2 are in Iowa (CBS and PBS):

3 KIMT CBS ID: “News Channel 3”
City: Mason City, IA
Owner: Media General
Web Site: http://www.kimt.com/
Station Info: Digital Full-Power
6
(33)
KAAL ABC City: Austin, MN
Web Site: http://www.kaaltv.com/
Station Info: Digital Full-Power
10
(36)
KTTC NBC City: Rochester, MN
Owner: Quincy Newspapers
Web Site: http://www.kttc.com/
Station Info: Digital Full-Power
15
(20)
KSMQ PBS City: Austin, MN
Owner: Southern Minnesota Quality Broadcasting
Web Site: http://www.ksmq.org/
Station Info: Digital Educational Full-Power
24
(18)
KYIN PBS ID: “IPTV”
City: Mason City, IA
Owner: Iowa Public Broadcasting
Web Site: http://www.iptv.org/
Station Info: Digital Educational Full-Power
47
(46)
KXLT FOX ID: “FOX 47”
City: Rochester, MN
Owner: Sagamorehill
Web Site: http://www.fox47kxlt.com/
Station Info: Digital Full-Power

Thanks to commenter Kevin we have the broadcast map these stations reach which you see stretches well into Iowa but only reaches a sparsely populated area.

When we look at the populations of the three cities (161,780 total), as eagle-eyed commenter Adam points out, this is a “Minnesota ad that happens to reach Iowa.”

  • Rochester, Minnesota, Minnesota’s third-largest city and the largest city: Population: 107,890 — 67% of the market
  • Austin, Minnesota, Population: 24,718 — 15% of the market
  • Mason City, Iowa, Population: 29,172 — 18% of the market

This means 82% of the population is in Minnesota yet MSNBC labeled this “Iowa”?  Come on. This is a huge piece of data completely misreported by MSNBC.  Chuck Todd broke the radio ad buys in Minnesota last night so I don’t think this is him but somebody went to decent lengths to mis-label what is obviously a Minnesota market that is also BIG NEWS. My excitement got the best of me. I trust my source below on this but I think it’s bigger news than currently being reported.

Addendum: An argument showed up in the comments section saying this is old news that Karl Rove has pointed out for months that this is part of the Obama campaign’s strategy to reach the rural Iowa vote (which explains the MSNBC labeling). I’m not buying that. Saturating Minnesota to reach an audience that is only 18% Iowa? They could probably spend less money and open up 10 Field Offices in Mason City, Iowa if that vote was so precious. One or two ad buys I could believe, but cracking the top 10 ad markets in a week with the highest ad buys this election? This screams of a Minnesota ad buy because something’s going on in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Addendum II: Counter-point from a smart media watcher who knows this market:

The placement in Rochester-Mason City is common for an Iowa buy. You are right that most of the population in the district is in Minnesota, but I know we are generally willing to buy broadcast in markets if 10% hits the targeted state.  Doesn’t mean that there isn’t positive movement going on in Minnesota, but its not unprecedented. Also, the American Future Fund has been pretty much alone in placing presidential ads in Minnesota.  They have placed in the Twin Cities and Duluth, which is more indicative of a real target.  If it has tightened, they deserve some credit.

Moderators Give Democrats $37.8 Million in Free Advertising

The growing contentiousness over media favoritism for Democrats in the Presidential debates is reaching a boiling point as we approach the final 1-on-1 confrontation Monday October 22 in Boca Raton, Florida. Thankfully plenty of conservatives are aggressively speaking up over Candy Crowley inappropriately injecting herself on the President’s behalf and incorrectly arbitrating the disagreement on the floor between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.

The statistical measures of media bias are piling up following last night’s fiasco. Earlier we picked up on Katrina Trinko’s post on the excess time given to Democrats in the 3 debates thus far over Republicans:

  • In the first Presidential debate, Obama spoke for 3 minutes, 14 seconds more than Romney – which means he got 8 percent more talking time than Romney.
  • During the vice presidential debate, Biden spoke for 1 minute, 22 seconds more than Ryan.  That gave Biden 3 percent more speaking time than Ryan.
  • In the second Presidential debate, Obama spoke for 4 minutes and 18 seconds longer than Romney, giving him 11 percent more talking time.
  • Candy Crowley not only interrupted to incorrectly support President Obama, she interrupted Mitt Romney 28 times but only interrupted Obama 9 times
  • Crowley also allowed President Obama to get the last word on question 8 of the 11 questions

This means that over 3 debates actively managed by the moderators in favor of one party, the Democrat candidate has been given 8 minutes and 54 seconds more time than the Republicans with viewership consistently ~70 million people. To give some pop culture perspective, the series finale of Seinfeld in 1999 drew 76 million household viewers.

But how much would it cost the Democrats if they had to pay for the opportunity to speak 1-on-1 to the American public on prime time television with an expected viewership of 70 million people?

The only comparisons I could come up with for anticipated events with viewership of this magnitude were the Super Bowl which has 110 million viewers last year and the Opening Ceremony of the 2012 Summer Olympics which drew 40 million viewers.  Last year, a 30-second ad in Super Bowl XLVI (2012) cost $3.5 million dollars. At the summer Olympics advertisers paid as much as $725,000 for each 30-second prime-time spot.  If we slot the 70 million person audience right in the middle let’s call it $2.1-million per 30-second ad for a national prime time audience. This means that the “independent” moderators giving Democrats 9 minutes more speaking time have gifted Democrats $24.3 million dollars in free advertising over these 3 debate broadcasts.

[Addendum:  My friend Lisa in advertising pointed out the Oscars charge $1.7 million for 30-second spots and their viewership is just under 40 million so I’m being generous with my $2.1 million figure on a 70 million person TV audience.]

If you look at the ad spending numbers provided by NBC’s First Read, Obama and Romney for this week are both spending $13-14 million.  All of that is in only 8-9 Battleground States.  This means the Democrats are getting almost THREE weeks worth of Battleground State advertising free of charge through the willful incompetence of the “independent” moderators. At the same time if Mitt Romney wanted to spend his $191 million war chest on a 30-minute paid advertisement to run his 10-minute bio from the Convention or similar autobiographical materials I’d wager the networks would reject this because it would be unfair to the Obama campaign who has comparatively far less cash on hand.

This is just the latest disgraceful display by a media who are making in-kind contributions to the re-election efforts of Barack Obama through unrealistic polling that doubles as press releases for Obama For America and moderators who stifle Republican candidates while actively assisting the Democrats.

13 Iowa Voters Apologize for Supporting Obama in 2008 in Full Page Ad

This ad reminds me of the “It’s OK to not vote for Obama again” ads we saw a couple months ago:

A full-page Mitt Romney campaign ad in today’s Cedar Rapids Gazette takes the form of an open letter from 13 Iowans who say they voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 but regret their choice and won’t do so again in 2012. The letter is phrased as an apology, and lays out a case for why Romney, the Republican nominee is a better choice this time around. “Mitt Romney will deliver the real recovery that President Obama has failed to bring, he’ll get Americans working again, and he’ll turn our economy around,” the letter says.

I cut the ad in half for spacing purposes.  The top-half is on the left and the bottom half is on the right:

The Choice

Fiscal Discipline

Joe Biden Says What He Means

Romney Still Battling for Michigan

Restore Our Future has a big ad buy in Michigan which is a great sign for Team Romney. The official campaigns cannot coordinate with the SuperPACs but don’t deceive yourself, these types of moves occur because the official campaign thinks it is money well spent. Restore Our Future is the SuperPAC run by all former senior Romney staffers.

Importantly, at  8:15am today there is a Victory Event at The Pinnacle Center in Hudsonville, Michigan hosted by Ann Romney. She will then drop by the Franklin Cider Mill in Bloomfield Hills at 2:40

The below excerpt if from Politico’s “Morning Score:”

RESTORE OUR FUTURE BUYING $1.5 MILLION IN MICHIGAN: The Romney super PAC will go on the air Saturday with “New Normal,” the economic-focused attack on President Obama’s record that they’ve run in a couple other states over the last few weeks. ‘Michigan is now a ‘toss up’ state for the Presidential race and it is no surprise that Mitt Romney is coming on strong in his native state,” writes Restore Our Future co-founder and counsel Charlie Spies. “Michiganders, who have felt the full weight of Barack Obama’s broken promises and failed policies, are increasingly energized by Mitt Romney’s clear vision for a stronger economy and better tomorrow.’

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVI

After a one week hiatus (never did get last week’s info from NBC) the weekly top 10 ad markets is back with only one surprise, Green Bay, Wisconsin. If there weren’t any weekly gaps we could have done some really need stuff with this data but alas …

The no brainer states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida dominate the list which comes as no surprise.  We see the campaign focused Battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin being the real stories. This is straight out of Karl Rove’s 3-2-1 strategy he wrote about 5-months ago (Day 2 of this b log!)with 3 being Indiana, North Carolina and Virgina (2 out of 3 done), 2 being Ohio and Florida (obvious priorities through election day) and 1 being Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin (based on this week’s spending).

While Team Romney is making a play for the other states (New Hampshire and Nevada) clearly they see their best chances in the three making today’s list.  The Romney campaign clearly saw concern in Iowa which bolsters the claim that Obama’s unprecedented 3-day commitment in August paid real dividends. No surprise comparatively new American Future Fund is big in Iowa as the conservative organization is headed by ex-GOP Iowa staffers. Additionally the pro-Romney teams are saturating Wisconsin which is a great sign about its potential vulnerability to flipping.  Finally, we see the NRA entering the mix in Norfolk, Virginia which is great since their constituency is both loyal and passionate which should help turnout.   All good signs that everything is on full blast for the final three weeks.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14 Hottest Markets for the week 9/24-9/30
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540, Restore 1480, Romney 940, Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando, FL: Obama 1700, Romney 1240, AJS 890, Crossroads 620, Priorities 250
3. Cleveland, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1500, AJS 710, Priorities 440, Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete, FL: Obama 1710, Romney 1300, AJS 670, Crossroads 480, Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800, Romney 1500, AJS 570, Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: Romney 1500, Obama 1340, AJS 670, Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: Obama 1450, Romney 1440, AJS 730, Crossroads 215, Priorities 200
8. Dayton, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1390, Crossroads 570, AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: Romney 1475, Obama 1360, AJS 490, Crossroads 400, Priorities 230
10. Toledo, OH: Romney 1500/Obama 1110, AJS 680, Crossroads 270, Priorities 330

MSNBC takeaways:

No takeaways provided but away from the top ten, they do write-up an appropriately concerning story about potential ad spending mismanagement.  I’ll be curious to see how this washes out after the election because based on these reports, it really does look like amateur hour:

If Obama ends up winning the presidential contest, it could very well come down to this: Team Obama has a tactical advantage over Team Romney, and that’s especially true when it comes to advertising strategy. Politico has this example: “Voters in Columbus, Ohio, saw 30-second television ads for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney while watching ‘Wheel of Fortune’ on their CBS affiliate over three days in September. For Obama’s team, the order per spot cost $500. For Romney’s, the price tag on the order was more than five times steeper at $2,800 per ad.” What’s going on here? Politico explains, “Romney places his commercials on a week-to-week basis, rather than booking time well in advance, and typically pays more so that his ads don’t get preempted and to spare his campaign the hassle of haggling over time as prices rise.” Folks, this is the equivalent of an NFL team — in terms of tactics and ad-buying strategy — going up against a high school team. And here’s another example we’ve heard: For weeks, the Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on the “Big 10 Network.” Only until recently has the Romney campaign also decided to advertise on the channel, about five weeks AFTER the start of football season. In a close race, the little things matter.

$5 Trillion

Born and Raised In Nevada

Former professional basketball player Greg Anthony has a soft spot in his heart for Nevada. When he voted for Barack Obama, he thought he’d be a centrist. After four years though, he’s heard enough excuses. He’s supporting Mitt Romney because we can’t afford four more years like the last.

The Dinner Table

With 12.1 million Americans unemployed, it’s time to try something different. Find out more at http://www.afpjobsagenda.org/

We Can’t Afford Four More Years