MSNBC dishes most of the red meat this week with weekly ad buys. We don’t have the details for each market but the markets included (and not included) tell a much bigger story. Look at the week-over-week shift. Last week had the Romney campaign’s entire 3-2-1 strategy for winning the election: Virginia (2x), Ohio (2x), Florida (2x), Colorado (1x), Iowa (2x) and Wisconsin (1x). This week the front-half of the 3-2-1 strategy carpet bombs Ohio (4x) but thins appreciably after that: no Virginia, Florida down to one market, and it’s the back-half of the 3-2-1 strategy that remains: Colorado (1x), Wisconsin (2x), Iowa (1x) with the expansion to Nevada (1x). This Battleground ad spending shift is a huge win for Romney. As MSNBC writes:
One of the “tells” we told you about MONTHS ago about this battleground map was to keep an eye on October and see where the battle was being waged more intensely. If it was in the New South battleground states of FL/NC and VA more than the Midwest, advantage Obama. Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that’s good news for Romney.
Without the ad points (we asked for them) it’s hard to tell the saturation but MSNBC reported the gross dollar figures which are staggering:
This week alone, more than $58 million is being spent. Obama leads the pack with $20 million spent, but Romney is close at $16.5 million (of course, he is getting less bang for the buck because of when his campaign books ads). With outside groups factored in, Team Romney’s outspending Team Obama this week, $34 million to $24 million.
Regarding the ad points, according to MSNBC:
Romney has more ad points than Obama narrowly in Denver, Mason City, and Orlando.
A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).
|Hottest Markets for the week 10/15-10/21||Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14|
|1. Green Bay, WI
2. Denver, CO
3. Cincinnati, OH
4. Columbus, OH
5. Madison, WI
6. Toledo, OH
7. Rochester-Mason City, MN-Austin, IA
8. Cleveland, OH
9. Orlando-Daytona Beach. FL
10. Las Vegas, NV
|1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Four of the top 10 hottest markets this week (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 15-21) are in the Buckeye State. Wisconsin has two, including Green Bay in the top spot. One striking thing about this week’s top markets — no Virginia. Markets like Norfolk, Roanoke, and Richmond have routinely been in the top 10, but they have dropped out to 16, 21, and 22, respectively. The Obama campaign has maintained its levels in Norfolk and Richmond, but cut it in half in Roanoke, from 1,500 points to 795 this week. The Romney campaign, on the other hand, INCREASED its spending in that market. The Obama campaign increased in places like Mason City, IA.