Then we’re looking at the Scott Walker recall night all over again.
Rasmussen Reports’s Party Affiliation for October is R +5.8. Below is Rasmussen’s month-end party ID for each October in Presidential years. We compared that with the exit polling party ID provided by the Winston Group:
|2004||D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2)||D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)|
|2008||D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3)||D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)|
|2012||R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1)||?????|
In the two prior Presidential election years Rasmussen essentially called the party identification and accurately captured the ground swell in favor of Democrats in 2008. Not coincidentally Rasmussen called the 2004 election within 1% and hit the bullseye in the 2008 election. I don’t know exactly the why behind Rasmussen’s methodology but his affiliation has been consistently R +whatever but he’s been running his polls at D +whatever. I’m assuming D +2 so if we get R +2 (I refuse to even consider R +6) then it is blowout city.