Why So Many Failed to Predict the Reelection

15 Comments

  1. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted November 25, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    barone — alas didnt say much. let’s see numbers as to predict patterns. what we need to do is stop bitching and start organizin’
    1. beginning with high tech/marketing/computer without glitches get out the vote.
    2. destroying the cultural elite memes and themes for the democratic party

    if repub do so well in state politics — why not better results? repub candidates from red states lost!

    where do we go from here operationally????????

  2. SpiritOF1776
    Posted November 25, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t know whether we’ll survive the next four years without enduring an economic collapse, i assume we will not. Many have said we have already crossed the fiscal cliff, it just matters where we land now. Sad but true. Maybe the GOP needs to run on this and speak the truth.

  3. Posted November 25, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The delusion continues.

    First, why would anyone ask Barone anything after his terrible performance as an analyst. It’s like asking the Astros how to win in baseball a few weeks after the World Series. You guys need to stop listening to people who mislead you.

    Second, what’s with the “why where the polls wrong” question? I knew Reynolds wasn’t very smart but can’t he do better than that? The polls were fine (except for Rasmussen) and the poll averages even better. People who read the polls knew months ago that Obama was going to win. It was only those that insisted they knew better, that you had to adjust or unskew, that were caught by surprise.

    • Marshmallow Candidate
      Posted November 27, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      Sometimes an analyst makes an error. Does that mean he or she is no longer credible? I know liberals use Barone’s recent performance as a pretext to shame and dismiss him and all Republicans as backward fools deserving of nothing more than open contempt. But for the more serious-minded, when should an analyst no longer be considered credible?

  4. Barf
    Posted November 26, 2012 at 9:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    The best think the Republicans can do is just be honest. The Democrats were in control of the House and Senate from 2007 to 2011. They by themselves ran up HUGE deficits that this country will NEVER recover from. That’s the truth, when the economic collapse happens, the finger needs to go right to them along with George W Bush and Barack Obama. This is truth and the left is full of shit.

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted November 26, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      No one cares about the blame, just the fix. Sure, FDR prolonged the depression by somewhere north of 4 years. That said, who do you see blaming him for it, except for academics?

    • Posted December 10, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If it was all the Democrat’s fault, why didn’t Bush veto everything? Nice attempt at justification and deflecting blame, but one again it all just adds up to a huge Republican FAIL.

  5. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted November 26, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    people dont want academic explanations. BARF put it as succinctly as I have heard.

    It’s time that the Republicans man up. One thing they can do, is say, “The Democrats have lied to us repeatedly. They put the blame on someone else. The simple truth is The Democrats were in control of the House and Senate from 2007 to 2011. They themselves are responsible for HUGE deficits that this our children will NEVER recover from.”

    remember obama lost points when he got academic. keep it simple stupid.

    Now, will this board evolve into something meaningful or will it wither away? Keith — it’s up to you. You built it. The first floor at least…

  6. Posted November 26, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney needed around 61% of the white vote to win. That was the case from the get-go. That also was a very tall order, again from the get-go, given that whites are much less race obsessed than blacks, for example, and that in the white demographic there are large numbers of brainwashed college and grad students, along with the hyper-wealthy and other micro demographics that blindly for Democrats. But for a while it appeared anecdotally and otherwise as though Romney would be able to cross the finish line in first. Nobody outside of the rank cynicism of Democrat politico circles could have predicted that so many millions of white voters — including self-identified Republicans — simply would stay home and sit out the election. So in the final analysis the liberal polls turned out to be correct, but as a result of a ghastly irony: to a large extent the white voting public was browbeaten by a horrible economy and by negative attack ads and negative media coverage into being so depressed about the political process, in general, and so hostile towards Romney, in particular, they simply checked out and didn’t participate; thereby handing another four years to Obama and the Dems.

    • Posted November 26, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney got more votes than McCain.

      • Barf
        Posted November 26, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

        Peter, there are millions of voters on both sides who are not registered. To many people are passive. 120 million voters out of 360 million people? Granted, maybe 80 million are under 18 but still, there are millions of people who should vote. Christopher Ruddy wrote a nice piece on the electorate this week. 2016 should be a Republican wave election if the right person is chosen. I think it has to be a Hispanic for the GOP or a young white male/woman. Jeb Bush will not cut it.

      • MikeN
        Posted November 26, 2012 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        After accounting for population growth, death, the dropoff in Obama’s vote total, it is clear that lots of McCain voters stayed home, and Romney is well below Bush’s 2004 total as well.

    • MikeN
      Posted November 26, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney got 61% of the white vote.

  7. Barf
    Posted November 26, 2012 at 11:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    Voters still blame George W Bush after four years according to exit polls. I do blame him for some of this but Obama has owned this baby for four years and has thrown gas on the fire. I hope we don’t collapse, i fear for my own kids, a nation full of morons. If Romney had not used that 47% remark he might have won. I don’t think the moochers are 47% because you can’t lump, seniors on Social Security, Medicare, veterans who use the Dept of VA and a few others as moochers. I am sure a lot of people would like to have a job but can’t find one because Obama and the Democrats have killed the business climate due to excessive regulations, taxes and future uncertainty. Romney would have removed all those. Nobody on welfare should be allowed to vote. I don’t have a problem with welfare as long as it is temporary. It should be state run too. My Christmas wish list is mighty full after Nov 6th. Ughhh…the GOP does need to not be suckered into talking about social issues. I am pro-lfie, pro-traditional marriage but Akin should have stepped down and Murdock just stepped in the poo. I would not even discuss them, even if asked. I would point to the Constitution…the way to state it is…It is a states rights issue. That is one thing i like about Ron Paul. If the states want gay marriage then each state can vote on it. It has nothing to do with the U.S. Constitution, those powers are relegated to the states.

    • MikeN
      Posted November 26, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mourdock’s problem was not the abortion comment, though that didn’t help. That perhaps did more damage to Romney’s campaign as it reinforced the Obama campaign’s message, with Rush Limbaugh, Akin, and now Mourdock.
      Mourdock’s problem was that he knocked out Richard Lugar, and many people could not get over that.

One Trackback

  1. […] usual, Keith Backer at the Battleground Watch blog has some really good information about the election.  (If you don’t frequent his blog, and […]

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