The Difference

Jim Geraghty’s Morning Jolt said it best:

Those Pollsters Were Right; We’re a Much More Democratic County, at Least in Presidential Years

The exit polls indicate a 39 percent Democrat to 33 percent Republican split, only a percentage point behind 2008. I was incorrect in my skepticism that the electorate would be closer to D+3 or D+4. Nate Silver, take a bow. Public Policy Polling, your samples weren’t as wacky as I believed they were.

The Obama campaign has put together a fantastic get-out-the-vote machine. We saw in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009 and Massachusetts in early 2010 and all over the country in the midterms that Obama’s personal charm did not transfer to other candidates like Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds and Martha Coakley.

Republicans need to confront the fact that because of demographics and a party infrastructure that has gotten very, very good at bringing out the vote in presidential years, Democrats are going to be very, very tough every four years. One of the strange aspects of this year is that I would have argued that Obama wasn’t all that charming. His favorable numbers dipped. He was dismissive in that first debate, snarky and combative in the second, constantly saying things that his campaign had to explain — “you didn’t build that,” “the private sector is doing fine,” “Romnesia,” “voting is the best revenge” . . . and he still won.

Ari Fleischer points out the silver lining is that so far, Romney is winning independents. That’s not a silver lining, that’s worse news: Democrats don’t really need independents anymore.


  1. zang
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    While many say that the gender gap is due to the “war on women” and abortion nonsense, I really think it is more a matter of economics and entitlements. Women look to the government to be a protective husband or father. They want to be taken care of.

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Culture is upstream from politics. The old saying applies more than ever, the nuclear family has been dismantled to the extent that a majority of it’s people look to the government to provide that role.

    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      FWIW, In my experience, I have found the majority of liberals I know to have “father” issues. Either too strict, abusive, or non-existent.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you hit the nail on the head

  2. JP
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Democratic party is no longer the labor rights party of the working class, it has become a massive marketing tool deftly pitching different identity-politics based appeals to different groups. This is the basis of their coalition and it is also the reason why their party has become completely incompetent despite its electoral victories. The Democratic leadership can no longer build the consensus between its members and independants/moderates that it needs to accomplish anything of value, it is now completely consumed with juggling the concerns of its various groups (minorities, feminists, union members, teachers) or wasting millions of dollars and time they could have used on serious matters creating
    ’causes’ to rally around like the fact that a handful of religious institutions want to preserve their centuries old practice of not paying for something that violates their religious beliefs (WAR ON WOMEN!!!!)

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So what can we do about it JP?

      • JP
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

        It’s tough, I’m not really buying the idea that Republicans should become more moderate or move leftward on social issues. Mitt Romney was just about as moderate as one could be while still being recognizably conservative. To become more progressive is to risk becoming the diet coke version of the Democratic party. This would be problematic in two ways, first it would have a very negative effect on voter turnout from what remains of the religious right. Second it would be counterproductive in trying to move anyone from the outside into the folds of the GOP because the democrats would simply counter any instance of Republican moderate or progressive policy shifts with arguments about how they’ve become even more progressive and the Republicans are stuck in the 1950s (ex. adding a relatively frivalous culture war issue like gay marriage to their official platform, or expanding affirmative action into more and more sectors of the economy) and this will be effective because no one wants diet coke when someone else is offering you the full sugar/corn syrup of the real thing.
        For all the talk of Rubio, I’m actually more hopeful about Rand Paul. He seems to encompasses not only the positions that made his father completely eclipse Obama as the idol of college students and 20 somethings this year, but a slightly more ‘acceptable’ (in the eyes of traditional repubs) set of foreign policy positions. I think the right-libertarian/constitutionalist positions of people like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz seem to have real potential to catch fire among independants, disallusioned dems and young people/hispanics, but then again there could be a ceiling on their appeal among the poor and uneducated when compared to a party that’s offering a scandinavian-level welfare state.

      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I will SAVE you all a lot of soul searching as Rush nailed it today. You can’t beat SANTA CLAUS.

      60% Women went to O. 40% of them SINGLE with Children
      95% Black. Whose you’re daddy ?
      64% Hispanic

      Got the majority of the under 44% (O) Got the majority of over 44 (R)

      I am 64. Been all over America. The people voted for Santa Claus instead of work, ethics, values, God, less government. The government (welfare, housing, food stamps, Obamaphone, SSI etc) has replaced the the family. Cradle to grave. Welcome to Greece.

      Now, the dirty little secret. The evangelicals said screw you. Where where the Christian messages in 2010 and 2012 and at the RNC? Non existent.

      Where was the Tea party message at the convention? Non existent. They spent most of the time telling the country who Obama was instead of who we where. Mitt (east coast R light)
      ran away from the Tea party like a scalded cat to kiss the Indies asses. Can you say Ford, Dole, McCain. Fails every time tried.

      And I think and it bothers me to say this but I think there’s a portion of the evangelicals who were anti-Mormon. I have no proof. Just a feeling. I am a born again Christian who found Christ while in the NAVY in Jerusalem. I don’t say this lightly. I would rather have Mormon over a black theology Socialist.

      And finally the Hispanics. They are slowly becoming the the “new blacks” thinking that government is better than honest work. We can get them if we try. They are hard working, friendly, pro family, pro life CATHOLICS. We have to convince them that WE are better than Santa Claus because Santa’s elves (tax payers) are going to say screw you and start laying off people.

      We have to start TODAY as INDIVIDUALS (screw the GOPe) to convince the Hispanics that prosperity is with the Conservatives


      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

        Also in 2016:

        Bobby Jindal (LA) and Susan Martinez (NM)

        Bobby Jindal (LA) and Jan Brewer (AZ)

        Bobby Jindal (LA) and Mary Fallin (OK)

        Throw in Brain Sandoval (NV), Tom Corbett (PA), Nikki Haley (SC)

        NO more Congressmen, Senators or Northeast Republican lites


      • GV
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

        I really like Jindal and hope to see him run in 2016 also. But I can just see the left along with the mainstream media ripping him on social issues like abortion (virtually no exceptions)

  3. MassLiberty
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I still admire the intelligence and insight of the posters on here. What is to happen with this site?

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I second that sentiment, we need more sites like this. Hopefully it will be around to speculate/celebrate on the mid-term elections.

      • motty
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        Same here, connected to this site straight away and got addicted ever since, there is something to it, I feel this can stay around to help us reflect on yesterday outcome and reshape and rebuild the party and battlefields

        On another note I hope as I wrote in another comment that mitt with his unique status as political outsider, businessman and bipartisan skills, he is an asset to the GOP, he should stay on in a powerful role to influence on the future of the party. He earns the respect of an ex president figure.

        WhT do you guys think?

  4. novahockey
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve been in a funk. just wanted to say great blog and thanks for all the fish

    • Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if Obama was a real leader…damnit he would mandate the NHL and players union reach an agreement by noon tomorrow and get HOCKEY BACK!! 🙂

  5. GLENN
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I work for a company in Louisiana with 800 employees. Even though Louisiana overwhelmingly voted for Romney, our owner just announced to all of us that our company immediately has a “hiring freeze”, and all current employees will receive a 10% cut in pay effective January 1st.

    Thanks a lot Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia!!! I will be praying that even worse measures are headed your way very soon. I don’t want to hear how terrible that sounds, or how cruel and un-Christian that sounds……. At least when it happens in those states, it will be a self-inflicted wound.


    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Quit my drum lessons today. Can’t justify the monthly expense anymore. The instructors are a Czech couple that fled communism to set up a small business and realize the American dream. Instead my taxes will go to a drifter to obtain an EBT card, which he will exchange for cash and buy liquor and lottery tickets. I hope their company survives. ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES.

      • GLENN
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink



      • Mike
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

        MassLiberty, I agree there are going to be a lot of people in deep dodo in the next 4 years. I just hope that all this people that voted for Santa Claus to start paying thei real price because the reckoning is near……ELECTION HAVE CONSEQUENCES/////

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You would think that people would look at the exploding bankruptcies of cities in california and the impending collapse of the Eurozone and come to some meaningful conclusions about the effects of massive public debt. But I guess it will take a massive economic disaster to make any kind of dent in the public’s comprehension of these issues. The problem is that the Democrat’s economic argument, “the government giving everyone more money will make everybody more productive and happy, increase demand, and boost ‘social justice'” is much easier to make than the Republican one “we need low tax rates in order to spur investment and keep the small number of people who pay for most of our social welfare and military expenses from moving their money overseas, if we spend too much on social programs we will not be able to afford them in the future.”

      • Mike
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

        JP, they don’t care as long they have their free cellphone, obamacare, EBT cards and some liquor……..after all, they don’t have to worry about getting out there in the real world and fight to bring the bacon to home.

  6. MassLiberty
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More contradictory results that defy common sense.

    Puerto Rico votes for statehood, but also throws out the Governor that is leading the charge for statehood, and electing the Governor that prefers the status quo.

    It’s almost like the Dems targeted an enemies list. Allen West, Mia Love. Luis Fortuno supported Romney. He’s out.

    I cannot believe this is me – becoming the conspiracy theorist. But something just ain’t right.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow. I can’t believe West, Love, and Fortuno. It’s because the left does not have common sense. I can’t believe puerto Rico ever even elected Fortuno. He’s a good man. We will all suffer.

  7. rcl_in_va
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Maybe it did, but it was cloudy and cold here in Virginia today.

  8. UncleFred
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I mentioned this in a reply up top but I want to reiterate it again. Even allowing for Sandy, the drop was broadly across the country and it is virtually unheard of in the modern era for turnout to go down in such a fashion. Until we understand the reason for the fall off, it is not possible to interpret the election results and formulate a strategy to move ahead. No pollster predicted the fall off. What turnout predictions there were called for increases.

    While I intend to wait for good data before strategizing, I will say this. For 2016 we better have found a way to beat the Democrats in early voting, so that an event like Sandy is largely mitigated.

    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It wasn’t early voting that was the problem. It was election day. And when you look, it will all be in the cities. Something like 20% dropoff of republican votes in the major cities and high Dem counties. Drop off – right into the garbage cans. Or 10% switched somehow.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

        Census needs to reflect where these people are going. Are we really surprised republicans are leaving democratic strongholds? The liberals are in your face, and you can’t even declare your beliefs without being called racist, homophobe, anti-woman, etc etc. The media has made being a republican as repugnant as being a smoker. You have to “go outside” to be yourself.

    • John
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I honestly think people (Dems and Reps) are getting too lazy and self-centered to spend the time to vote much less research who to vote for. It is just another symptom of our chronic cultural demise. Voting via facebook is the only way they would bother.

    • Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree…This was very weird. While the polls had the numbers right what they didn’t pick up on, what the media didn’t pick up on and what the campaigns didn’t pick up on was a mass voter depression and lack of enthusiasm across the board.

      13-14 million fewer voters from one to the next is an astonishin drop. Obama lost more than 9.3 million votes from 2008 to 2012 and Romnmey pulled 2.5 million fewer than McCain. I think it was a giant vote of no confidence in either side and either candidate.

      Be interesting to see if there was a specific pocket they lost, was it spread evenly, etc.

      What is even more sad is that all in all less than 38% of our population determined out future last night. How can America call itself the land of the free and the greatest country when we have barely 1/3 nmaking the decisions. America NEEDS multi-viable parties.

      • FabianNightmare
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

        I agree with you. The R drop-off was astounding. It has to be apathy. We need a real fiscal conservative and constitutionally based platform, agenda driven third party. The two party system has turned into a giant lukewarm media machine.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      2014 and beyond:

      1. Get an early voting machine going to neutralize that factor. A vote is a vote. Dont talk to me about low and high propensity voters anymore. Bank the votes early and often

      2. Moderate the social platform. Screw the eveangelicals. They have screwed us 2 elections in a row. Disenfranchise them i don’t care. They arent worth the damage they cause with our image to the rest of the electorate.

      3. Get on the Latino vote before it is too late and they become brainwashed like the african american vote which is too far gone to ever get. Latino candidates and opportunities within the party heirarchy should be a huge priority.

      • FabianNightmare
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

        Go ahead with item #2 and the great red land mass will be blue.
        Item #3, the latino vote obviously wants amnesty for their compadres, is that what you are arguing ? Reagan gave them amnesty for supposed border security. That worked real well.
        I say Third party, let the conservative Kardinal11’s have their agenda, the socialists theirs, and a third party of real conservatives, fiscal and constitutional and states rights agenda. Push states rights to mitigate federal over-reach.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        I agree. The evangelicals damage our image, then don’t vote if they don’t like the nominee. It’s their way or the highway. This can’t go on. Things have to change. Time to build a new party.

      • Mike
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

        Yep, I alsoagree with you, that is way is so important to get MarcoRubio ready for the next election. But before that we need to start getting Latinos in our side, believe me they are not far off of our side yet, unless we let the Democrats to dictate our will.

    • TTK
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Fred. In 2016 it will be more difficult for the GOP to win because Hillary will be their candidate (Biden too old and he won’t run). She will have even stronger support among the Dems than Obama’s.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        Disagree. Hillary is old. She’ll be 69–and by then the country will have had its fill of the bad economy. If we’re going to run oldsters–I’d rather see Rudy run against her. He’s got as much star power–and lots more smarts. But even better would be Jeb Bush of FL. At least he’d improve on our take of the Hispanic vote.

      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

        Libya will kill her chances

      • Mike
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

        Yep, but hopefully we start playing the Benghazy drums early enough on her as she will be discredited to ever run for an office again.

      • Xdust
        Posted November 8, 2012 at 3:36 am | Permalink

        Hillary wont even Run. Clinton’s are old News. The New Progressive Left has all the DLC money now. The DLC is gone, nothing is left of the Billary Org. The $$$ is now all in the Obama Camp.

        She will never get any support.

        Its a new generation.

  9. Japes
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink | Reply


    How were we so wrong… Such a crappy day.

    • zang
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This chart isn’t really honest. A lot of the polls there include ones which did not allocate undecideds. Allocations of undecideds is a prediction, not a poll.

      I believe IBD/TIPP’s poll will be closest to the final result, which this chart does not reflect.

      • Japes
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

        Can you elaborate? Not disputing, just curious.

  10. zang
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I hope this board can remain and stay active. Maybe Keith will consider switching this from a personal blog to a regular message board site. It would be nice if we could get a viable “bi-partisan” discussion board going. It seems like 99% of political message boards that are open to all viewpoints are overrun with trolls, unfortunately.

  11. mdc
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another thing is the public perception issue,
    alot of Catholics feel with social justice issues that the Republicans don’t give a damn…

  12. MassLiberty
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Drudge: FLASH: Author of Anti-Muslim Film Sentenced to Year in Prison…

    Prediction: He will not survive the year. It begins….

    • GLENN
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Comrades, gather your arms!!!


    • John
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hopefully that will finally break the MSM loose on the Benghazi story. No need for the Obama witness protection program any longer.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is so wrong and depressing. I tell you all. We’re not alone. I can only imagine the collective gasp when NH, then OH fell so fast. Fasten your seat belts for the ride. But just know you’re not alone.

      • mdc
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink


  13. Kardinal11
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    unfortuately this one would likely be as well if it became more known. We’ve been fortunate to have dissenting opinions from polite people like Peter, bks etc.

    • Josh Roberts
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree, the dissenters like Peter and bks were polite and contributed to the conversation in a valuable way. Refreshing, really, considering the usual level of political discourse I find nonlinear.

      • Josh Roberts
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

        Online. (autocorrect fail)

  14. Kardinal11
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Unfortunately at the year end meeting next week in my practice i will be forced to make the argument against any new hiring or wage increases based on the results of this election and the likely increased tax burden our practice will face due to the current administrations policies. Hopefully any employees in our group who voted Dem this election will eventually connect the dots.

  15. Bunker It Up
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am 52 from New Jersey. America wants Europe- they got Europe socialism. 39% white vote only for Obama . Sorry- I am not going to pander to African Americans and Hispanics to win votes. Towel officially thrown here. Been fighting since 18. Younger crowd here can take up the fight. Thanks for the blog Keith.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree with you on the African American vote but I think Latinos who are new to our form of Democracy can be brought into the party without pandering.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        Kardina: Exactly. While Hispanics do lean Left naturally we have to remove immigration as a roadblock to direct messaging. Even if we get 40% of them it changes the nature of the electorate. At this point Texas could very well be a tossup by 2016 some are speculating, the GOP cannot risk that.

      • MikeN
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

        Immigration isn’t the problem. Latinos tend to be socialist, despite what Marco Rubio says. They are much more likely to be on welfare, and support big government as a helping hand.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Who is John Galt?

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey Bunker, don’t go away. i’m 50. I know its easy to get disheartened, but remember, you’re not alone.

  16. JohnGalt
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Kardinal you’re wrong. My workgroup is highly hispanic. They like their free stuff too. they hate rich, successful white people too.

    • Bunker It Up
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      John – you are correct

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

        Thanks Bunker. great article. Gives credence to my creeping, sickening gut feeling that has been brewing.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

        There’s no quick fix. We neglected the Senate races and now will pay a price. Only with greater congressional strength can we hope to stop Obama and his attempt to turn America into California. Hispanics are concentrated in specific states. This diminishes their impact nationally. We have to figure out how to attract more of their vote without sacrificing fiscal responsibility. It won’t be easy. It means developing the right talent and carefully laying the groundwork. The first order of business, though, is to figure out how we failed, why we didn’t get enough of our own people out to the polls, never mind attracting theirs.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

        California is a different beast. Hispanics are diverse but Mexicans tend to be socialist frankly Catholics in general tend to be socialist in their orientation. The problem is we are giving them a reason to mobilize to defeat us left to their own devices many would simply stay home.

        The GOP can take one of two tacks pass immigration reform and start messaging to Hispanics look we don’t have to win them 40%, Bush’s numbers is doable and will suffice. Or go after the young kids.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Trust me. Obama is going to start doling out the goodies to them soon. They’ll be forever hooked. That the way Chavez, Kristina, and Obama do it. Sad truth? It works.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

        We’d better start planning for 2014. The midterms are easier for us to win if we’re smart. All of our senators up for reelection hail from safe seats. There are about four or five of theirs who are vulnerable, especially if the economy is still sour. That means nominating charismatic leaders, ex-governors and the like, not inexperienced tea party wannabes. It might take still another cycle to win the Senate–but it’s doable, That’s our only counter to executive power till we rebuild the party.

    • FabianNightmare
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Of course they want their “free stuff”, its human nature, regardless of race or ethnicity. The dems/socialists pander to and encourage class warfare. Third party, heck, fourth and fifth parties, we have to break this two party system.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

        More political parties? Hmmm. We have to cut the funding to the moochers. There isn’t any free stuff if the producers stop paying.

        If they want to take $$$ off the top of every security/stock transaction, believe me, I’m moving my 401K to cash.

        New car? No way will I do that becase that is a huge payment to the gub’ment.

        I sure won’t get hispanics to clean my house or cut my grass, I’ll do it myself.
        Maybe I’ll join a church so I can find a network of people who are like-minded that I can hire when I need services.

        Can anyone else think of other ways to withhold our goods from them?

  17. TTK
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hillary will be running for Prez in 2016. Wonder who in the GOP is gonna go up against her. Sad 😦

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      we will have big time problems with getting the women’s vote. and we jews will flock (not all of us) to her… i think obama promised bill to protect her from benghazi in return for him campaigning

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The only solace is I honestly dont think the Dems could field a credible candidate that would be worse than Obama.

    • Ron
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hillary is getting on. She’s now 65. She’ll be 69–same as Rudy. I think he’d be a credible candidate. So would Jeb Bush–who has good relations with the Hispanic community and hails from FL. We need somebody strong in 2016, a true leader, not a lightweight with scant governing experience.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

        Well economic collapse isn’t fun or hip so who knows maybe some of these Obama diehards may come to their senses by 2016

  18. JP
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There’s a disturbing rhetorical message that comes from Obama’s defeat of Romney when you compare their backgrounds.

    Romney is a devoutly religious man who has never drank or used ilicit substances. His long path to the campaign trail began at Harvard Law where he lived frugaly and devoted all of his time to obtaining a dual JD/MBA degree and graduating cum laude. He worked in the private sector gaining a massive amount of experience in running a company, creating wealth and making tough decision that sometimes involved unpopular cutbacks in order to save companies and the livelyhood of millions(the same abilities that enabled him to save the olympics). He went on to become, against all odds, the Republican governor of Massachussetts and managed, despite massive dem opposition, to make intelligent economic decisions, decrease debt and unemployment and increase the academic performance of students (all of these things began to unravel as soon as he left office).
    Obama, despite the fact that he spent most of his formative years with his wealthy, union connected white grandparents and attending private school with white and asian kids, recieved most of his political acumen by cynically assuming the identity of a black politician from the deep south/inner city and spending much of his time at harvard law imeshed in the inane critical race theory/campus politics of people like Derrick Bell. Then it was off to Chicago to work as a community organizer and, through his occaisonal presence at rev wright’s church and his fictionalized auto-biography, gain enough social capital amongst the black community to allow his connected/corrupt white chicago political buddies to propel him up through the ranks of the Democratic Party. The media loves him because he, again cynically, hits all of the same inane, feel-good talking points in his speeches that they use in their editorials so despite the fact that he has shown multiple examples of corruption and imcompetancy that would have (and did) destroy George Bush and despite the fact that (unlike Romney who was willing speak to the NAACP and risk the vicious British news) Obama skips press conferences, ducks any difficult interview and only appears on echo chambers like the Daily Show and Letterman, his faults are easily glossed over by the fact that Obama is the ‘social justice’ president and to criticize him would be to give credance to those awful bigots on the right (yes this is how most journalists think).
    So what happens to the Puritan sense of work ethic, indrustriusness and pride in earned achievement that American was founded on? Eight years of this guy as the model for individual achievement doesn’t bode well for the next generation.

    • FabianNightmare
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good post JP. and I agree with it. What is happening now is the age old paradigm that counter-cultural, anti moral absolutes revolutionaries have used throughout the world, whether they be fabian socialists, marxists or “progressives”. Sin becomes immorality, immorality becomes deviance, deviance becomes choice, and all choice becomes equal. Socialists can only thrive by tearing down cultural landmarks, moral creeds and national tradition.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes JP. so disturbing. Next generation? It doesn’t bode well for the world. America has always been a beacon for hope, guiding the way for individual initiative and greatness. A place to go for freedom.

      It is no more.

      We are like Venezuela and Argentina because our leader is just like their leaders. Kristina in 2009, “nationalized” all citizens “401K’s” and said the stock market was too volatile for people’s money, that the government would take care of all the people. Well now, you need government permission to MOVE! If you are going to travel, you are allotted, as per the government, how much you can spend each day. You can no longer exchange pesos for dollars. They also monitor your credit card and charge a 1.5% fee for every peso spent that goes to government coffers. Now people are wising up and don’t want her anymore. So she lowered the voting age to 16.

      You know where she gets a lot of her money? Chavez. You know where Chavez gets his money? The USA. Black gold baby. Obama is all for this. He doesn’t want us to be energy efficient. He wants to spread our wealth. And the dem’s will solidify their powers in these next 4 years. you watch. They’ll have the help of the Supreme Court too, don’t forget.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        not energy efficient. energy independent

      • JP
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

        Exactly, while the GOP has its fair share of faults, it nevertheless provided a sort of balance to the political ecosystem and prevented the dems from creating the sort of massive welfare dependance, public debt and oppressive government seen in most socialist countries. Now that ecosystem has been completely unbalanced and the left is going to have a much easier time rubberstamping whatever legislation they like and accelerating the economic damage they’re doing to a breakneck pace.

    • wholefoodsrepublican
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      issa needs to go over obama with hearings…that will make monica-gate look like nothing

    • Ron
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. But unseating an incumbent is tough. Bush was hated and reviled–but he still won. Believe me, there’ll be a reaction to the Democratic Party next time around. People will have had their fill. But we need to be careful who we nominate. A certain degree of compassionate conservatism is justified–given how complex our society has become and how difficult it is for some people. Those are the folks who once would have been hired in this or that factory–but who now find themselves without resources for survival. There are many such people and we need a support system that sustains them. That said, it was unforgivable for Bush to have pushed still another brand new entitlement and a brand new enormous government agency–Homeland Security. We need to watch the wasteful spending and do more to consolidate agencies, shrink government, limit funding for pet special interests of interest only to lobbyists who fund politicians. But the poor look to government for protection–and they vote. It’s the world we live in.

  19. John
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So many think Hillary will run in ’16. I don’t. She is 65 now and by the time she’d take office would be 69 and 3 mo making her the 2nd oldest president behind Reagan by about six month.

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’ll be interesting to see if they go with a competent guy like Cuomo or if the progressive wing tries to push Julian Castro or someone similar.

  20. Alex
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, thank you for your work, I look forward to coming back to this blog in 2014 and 2016.

    As to why Romney lost, its true we’re a more Democratic country but its also true that Republicans did not turn out to vote in numbers that many of us expected. Romney’s final vote will likely be between McCain ’08 and Bush ’04, with Romney winning Independents. Certain states had much higher Democratic turnout compared to Republicans than expected, look at Colorado (D+3), Minnesota (D+8!), Ohio (D+7!), Pennsylvania (D+7), New Hampshire (D+3), etc. The GOP was not able to harbor the moment of 2010, perhaps due to lack of clear leaders. Sorry, Palin is not one.

    2014 still looks good for the GOP, look at the DEM states that are up: North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, Minnesota, Alaska, New Hampshire, Colorado, even Oregon and New Jersey could by competitive.

    One more thing,
    McDonnell-Rubio 2016.

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed on the 2014 front. Absent the Obama voting machine, and with the fear/urgency from a couple more obama years pressing on the electorate the GOP could out perform even 2010 considering the D+7 from the last election was a lot more daunting than the D+3 we’re up against this time. Also, keep in mind that the DNC has pretty much bankrupted itself while the RNC has seen its coffers swell quite a bit. I’m imagining that the resources to defend these seats may be pretty lop-sided once 2014 rolls around.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Virginia wont be competitive. Mark Warner is probably the most popular politician in this state by a wide margin. He’s actually a pretty good guy and did a hell of a good job as gov of this state.

      • Alex
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

        You can replace Virginia with Iowa where Harkin has mixed approval ratings.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

        I agree. The first order of business for the next two years is to retake the Senate and secure the Congress as a counterweight to executive overreach. It’s doable if we’re smart and well funded. No more tea party novices. Good solid experienced candidates with considerable charisma.

  21. Ryan Seeley
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The very recent [Battleground Watch] October 29, 2012 post discussing Axelrod’s 72% caucasian assumption was interesting to read and compare to the new exit poll data.

    I agreed with that article of course, and it made sense based on thee information available at the time; but as we all know now 2008′s numbers were (unfortunately) not an outlier (as we thought), they were (instead) an early trend indicator in a demographics shift that Axelrod gambled on, and now recoups his winnings from.

    I now re-read that earlier post to make myself feel sane when I worry that the math has somehow betrayed me. It reminds me of that early lesson we all have to learn; even perfect arguments are all eventually based on some or a few root assumptions, which if false, likely make the eventual conclusion false.

  22. Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    At the 2004 Democratic National Convention, when an obscure politician named Barak Obama gave a speach, my wife and I looked at each other and said “this guy should run for President.”

    At this year’s DNC, we had pretty much the same reaction to Governor Deval Patrick, for whatever that’s worth.

  23. Kardinal11
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Off topic, but a long overdue thank you Keith. I realized earlier today I hadn’t said that yet. This blog was a great success. You managed to run a community on political matters in 2012 that rarely ever degenerated into the garbage I see everywhere else. That’s rare. That is because you set the example and people followed it. I enjoyed your analysis and in the end the fact that you were off doesnt matter. Its the process and the thought it inspired thats important. You shouldn’t let this blog go away. I think you could have a very good thing going here. I know I would support any effort on your part.

  24. John
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I love it…all day CNBC was headlining “Stocks tumble on fiscal cliff fears”, now it’s “Asian Shares Drop on US Fiscal Cliff Fears”. How about the truth instead…”STOCKS TUMBLE BECAUSE
    OBAMA RE-ELECTED” Many, many business leaders announced their intention to freeze spending and institute layoffs if “O” won. We’ve already seen evidence of that from a few poster on this blog (see #4 on this page). Call me mean but I hope the layoffs are most severe in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mine are in Virginia John, and it wont be pretty.

    • Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      er, you do know the stockmarket has skyrocketed under Obama, right? Or do you get your stock information from Barone and Rove?

      • Kardinal11
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

        Wait and see what happens to the market when the capital gains tax goes up and dividends are taxed as income again as Obama has stated he wants to see enacted. My accountant has already called me to start moving out of positions over the next few months specifically for this reason.

      • GV
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

        I suppose the skyrocketing had nothing to do with all that quantitative easing enacted by the Fed

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

        Ditto Kardinal. 401Ks are filled with hidden expenses as it is. I’m in cash. selling my stocks too. how are things going to look with 10% unemployment, and when bernanke finally turns off the spigot? The dems will strengthen their war on the achievers and savers as things get more desperate and the govt coffers start drying up.

      • Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        it’s like you guys enjoy being wrong on everything. Have you learned nothing?

      • MikeN
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Lower dividends should mean a higher stock price. Now, capital gains taxes, the higher they are, are better for big corporations, keeping down the competition.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      @GV Exactly right. You cant hold off inflation forever. Stocks are about to become horribly unattractive as an investment vehicle for a while. Every single one of my financial advisers has told me to start cutting positions. This isnt political rhetoric, this is what they are telling all of their clients and have been for the last month. The ride is over for stocks. Let the big shorts begin!

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

        Stop giving Peter peter pumpkin eater stock tips

  25. live_free290248
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I welcome back all the poll deniers back to reality. It is so much better here on planet Earth.

    • JohnGalt
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey live free. don’t go away mad. just go away

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      ‘Reality’ is apparently the final days of Roman Empire. Considering Emperor Obama has consolidated power by throwing bread, silver and mindless entertainment to the masses and has even appointed his horse to the senate (‘pelosi’ I believe its name is) we’re probably on our way out in less than a century.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

        I like your idea of Rand Paul or Ted Cruz, JP. unfortunately, bobby jindahl is too nice. Love him, but he is too nice.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

        I’m not discouraged. Let the Dems own the next four years, the skyrocketing health care costs, the higher-yet gas prices, the unemployment, the economic malaise. Meanwhile we need to retake the Senate. That’s only two short years away–and very doable.

      • JP
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

        Galt, yeah Jindahl isn’t quite the right personality type, however he’s a great surrogate and I wish the GOP would use him more. Just like Ryan and Cruz he’s an intellectual who is also very solidly conservative; a powerful combination considering intellectualism is so often portrayed as being synonymous with liberalism by the media. An important aspect of any GOP recovery is establishing a very concrete set of planks that they can trot out confidently instead of having to reign them in accordance with whatever political winds are blowing especially since the GOP’s barometer isn’t very good.

      • MikeN
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

        I’m torn on Jindal. Solid on policy, but he lost his first race because whites wouldn’t vote for him. On the other hand, the left can’t avoid talking about his exorcism, and I think that would bring the voters on board.

  26. Josh
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It is wrong to say that Republicans have a demographic issue that will make democrats unbeatable every four years. Turnout was way down for both parties. Romney couldn’t even match McCain vote totals. There is a host of reasons why this could be. A candidate cannot allow a summer of negative advertising to go on without effective counters. Perhaps Mormonism played a bigger role with evangelicals than expected. Weak GOTV could be blamed as well. Republicans in all state wide races need a litmus test on the whole rape and incest question on abortion. What happened to pro-life except in the instance of rape, incest, and life of the mother. It has an effect on all Republicans every time that issue comes up with certain candidates. I do not believe conservatism needs to change to adjust to demographics. However, the candidates and platforms need to appeal to the base in more effective ways.

  27. JohnGalt
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Only thing Romney did wrong in my book was not putting Obama away in debate 2 and 3. This is not little leagues where you take it easy on the poor rattled opponent. When they’re down, you hit em again, and again and again, and you hit em harder. Knock out!!!!

    • TTK
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. But I also think that in the 2nd debate, Obama actually knew the questions before hand, perhaps from someone in Candy/CNN team leaking the questions to the Obama team. I doubt if Obama could be that comfortable (in the 2nd debate) without already knowing what questions were going to be asked.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

        Yes but TTK, it doesn’t matter if Obama knew questions ahead of time. Romney was prepared for EVERY question is my guess. He just let too many opportunities on the table that he should have drilled down on. relentlessly. He was being a gentleman, like he was raised to be. Unfortunately, when you fight with a thug, it’s time to step outside.

      • Ron
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

        Disagree. He won the debates–not on points but in terms of the rise in his poll numbers. Gallup had him up 5 till the storm. Ras had a 4pt spread. Obama was in the mid 40s. The storm made a difference. So did the lack of turnout by our people. Theoretically we have the numbers–even against their juggernaut. But we didn’t utilize our base. If this means evangelicals–then we have to deal with this and devise ways to compensate.

      • MikeN
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

        On the Libya question, watch the video. Obama walks right towards the guy before he’s even up. He says Hi, Kerry. Then he catches his own mistake, and asks what’s your name?

  28. live_free290248
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Don’t get mad at me for speaking the truth. The fact is your perception of Obama like your perception of the polls are not based on reality. It is simply fantasy. Drop the hysteria, come to the center, and you will have a better future as a political party.

    • Ron
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No, we’ve got the man pegged. He’s lazy, incompetent and unprincipled. He shows this in almost every speech. He showed it in how he handled the Benghazi incident. He showed it in how he allowed Holder to operate. He showed it in his carelessness about dividing one group of Americans against another. He asks the public to trust his words–then lies with every second breath. It’s laughable how he’s gulled some people.

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

        But Ron, Gallup and Ras were wrong. We know that now. Romney was never up according to RCP, was he? Romney let the agenda be set by Obama and the media, instead of tackling the Benghazi question and steering the debate on foreign policy. Did Obama look small? Sure, but Romney didn’t give anyone any meat to grab onto that was any different than what Obama was proposing. If the candidate won’t fight the hard issues, why should people that feel they are being lied to get up off the couch to vote?

      • JohnGalt
        Posted November 7, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        It’s demoralizing.

  29. TTK
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Although sad and devastated here after the election, but I just realized something that I hadn’t thought about before. I told my wife that 30-40 years ago, the liberal left could not smear the GOP candidate effectively because it would have to be done by a major magazine, newspaper, or via TV news. That wouldn’t be an easy thing to do because not too many people could use that media. But nowaways, it’s different. The liberal left could so many other “cheap and easy” medium like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Emails, etc. as propaganda and attack the GOP/conservative candidates. So it’s not your grandfather’s election anymore. It is now an “Internet election” where anybody could smear anybody over the web. And the liberal left has done that quite well.

    • JP
      Posted November 7, 2012 at 9:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I actually think that Obama’s suprising loss 44% to 52% among 18-29 year old white voters suggests just the opposite , consider the fact that they supported Obama over Mccaine by the same margin 4 years ago (Romney also made gains of 4% with young black and hispanic voters). The Obama campaign lost amongst the demographic who make up the largest share of frequent social media and internet users despite a massive financial/manpower effort on their part to link their campaign to twitter, reddit and all of that other crap. Just some food for thought.

  30. C'ville
    Posted November 7, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Peter – the stock market still isn’t even at Bush’s highest point and that’s even in dollars that are valued significantly less. So value is still substantially off. Even that aside, the stock market isn’t the sole indicator of economic health.

  31. GLENN
    Posted November 8, 2012 at 12:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not sure about most of my friends on this blog, but I’m going to be just fine even after the re-election of Master. Obama. I don’t consider myself super-rich, but I’m very comfortable, and I worked very hard to get there. I have everything I need to take care of my family, including an ample supply of guns and ammunition. We can move wherever we want. We can send our children to whatever schools we want. We can buy whatever vehicles we want. Etc, etc, etc…

    Unfortunately, none of that is true for most of the people who voted for the Master. In their attempt to get “revenge” against the successful/rich people, they guaranteed themselves only the things their Master will give them. I have spoken with many of my colleagues and we all agree: The successful/rich people are still going to be successful/rich no matter what happens the next four years; however, those who are content to rely on their Master for everything they receive, will always be his slave!

    As Conservatives, we would like for Everyone to have an opportunity to reach the TOP of the ladder, while Liberals want Everyone to meet on the lower rungs. Conservatives believe we must guarantee EQUAL OPPORTUNITY. Liberals believe we must guarantee EQUAL OUTCOME.

    The Master will cause a financial crisis in this country. Ironically, it will hit most of his supporters the hardest.


    Posted November 8, 2012 at 2:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Want to win the Hispanics? Susan Martinez, Governor of New Mexico. Go back to the convention and listen to her speech. Again and again and again until you people get it through your heads. She got it !!!! She realized she was a conservative. Someone just had to show her. That’s what we do with the 3rd generation and back Hispanics.


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