The Most Important Tweet of the Day (for Me)

This is why I have taken up residence in The Coffee Bean.  Tonight I will be blogging from the satellite office in midtown and try to share things not readily available on the Networks.  Also at the request of multiple people we’ll have an Open Thread around 6 or 7pm.  I may even throw in an “Ask Keith” post this afternoon where you can ask me any question with minor restrictions (only one question, no follow-ups, if multiple questions I choose one and no repeats).  Major Garrett used to do this on Twitter and I always thought it was fun.  Anyway those are my thoughts as I exit The Bean for a bit.

195 Comments

  1. lotmini
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    tom ridge just called gov romney, president romney…hmmmm

  2. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rendell said black turnout in Philly is “off the charts.”

    He thinks they are ahead of 2008 pace.

    He did hedge a little and say he wasn’t sure if they would top 2008.

    • Pete
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep, black turnout is doing well: Black Panthers Return to Philly Polling Site…

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Rendell is relying on assurances from community leaders for that. He hasn’t seen people showing up. There were lots of assurances given, i’m sure. Let’s see how they pan out.

    • CK
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think the turnout could possibly be higher than 2008, since the population is flat.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Based on what evidence?

  3. Interested Party
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Of course he’s going to say that.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think I like Rendell better than most here.

      Sure, he’ll shade it, but I’ve seen him talk pretty tough about Dem failures.

      • Jeni
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

        I don’t dislike Rendell…he’s one of the straighter shooters. I even have to admit to having voted for him.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

        Going to take more then a 08 turnout by one group, to get D+4 or higher you need near 08 turnout for all groups.. Never know!

  4. dizzymissl
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Josh Kraushaar
    ‏@HotlineJosh
    Between EV numbers and Biden surprise stop, theres something happening in Ohio. Hunch is early voting skewed polls in O’s direction.

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Why did it take them until now to figure this out, I wonder? That poll trend should have been picked up a week ago.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      EV numbers were awful in Ohio for the Dems.

      I think they’re worried about the optics of R/R on the ground still working and the Democratic ticket not doing anything.

      • MassLiberty
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

        Not true. Obama’s playing basketball.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

        They sent Biden instead.. Same same.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

        I think you are right Bob..

      • lotmini
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        masslierty…thats funny

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

        Funny thing is, that’s not “optics.” Romney’s really still working, and the 0 really is at home playing basketball.

  5. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Stop worrying about turnout in N. Virginia folks, people are now afraid of turnout? What is going on here??? if there were no lines id be worried 50,000 times more then big lines.. The R’s come out rain or shine on ED, the D’s vote early, or come light on ED..

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      While that may be true in general, blue precincts are blue precincts and the general trend may not hold true in heavily contested areas. I still would rather see turnout up huge only in red precincts.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

        I don’t mind folks wanting to win, but turnout is turnout.. Big turnout is only a good thing for everyone.. Get out and vote, the chips will fall the way they will fall.. I just heard on FOX turnout is huge at ALL sites in VA..

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

        D+ anything turnout is not good for everyone, just dems. Only if Rasmussen’s R+5 prediction holds true in the battleground states and not just red states is it good for us. I’ll take low turnout rainy election days anytime because that is where repubs shine.

      • margaret
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

        I’ve been anecdotes all morning and nearly all talk about huge lines in deep red places. One was worried about a huge line in his polling place in Maryland, but that’s ok. Some say they didn’t have any real waits in their very blue urban polling places, which surprised them. This could all mean nothing because it’s selective or we could be looking at a chik-fil-a 2010-style election turnout.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

        D+3 or less is trouble for O.. I would argue D+2-3 is great for repubs but its not 04.. Like I said, don’t read the tea leaves on lines, If the R team shows up, its over for O.. Period.. So get out the vote!

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

        Right.

        Even if the Dems show up in 2008 force, if Reps do what they need to do, Romney will still win.

      • margaret
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

        I like that Dan Rather says his ‘gut’ says it will be a good day for Romney! Ha.

      • Anonymous Conservative
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

        For some perspective, in 2009 Republican Bob McDonnell WON both Fairfax County and Fairfax City. In 2010, Republican Keith Fimian lost to the incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly in heavily Democratic District 11 by just less than 1,000 votes, 49.3% to 48.9%. So it’s not like NOVA is Cuyahoga County. Big turnout doesn’t necessarily mean big margins for Obama.

    • Jeff
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I voted in NoVA this morning. The office where I work is in Reston, and everyone is talking about waiting 30-120 minutes to vote. This is great. As many have posted often, Mitt will win ED vote hands down. My guess is Virginia will NOT be called at 7:01PM EST tonight, but it’ll be red before 10pm or so.

      Keep the beer, champagne and wine chilled. Victory glasses should be able to go up around 10PM EST.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

        Our fireworks are ready to be blasted off tonight here in CO! 🙂
        ~ Brittany

  6. Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Syrian rebel commander backing Romney!
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/nov/06/syria-aleppo-tank-battles-live#block-5098f34cb579f74bac764b5f

    • Svigor
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah but we lost Chavez, Castro, and Iranian Regime endorsements to 0bama this year so not much to crow about on that front.

  7. John
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Read this at National Review blog. Lowry is such a RINO along with many of his cohorts at NR. Reading between the lines I think he may have Intrade money on Obama. W.F. Buckley must be turning over in his grave. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332714/not-exactly-fearless-prediction-rich-lowry

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Let him hedge.. Id hardly call Lowry a respected pundit.. It all doesn’t matter.. Its all about turnout.. End of story..

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What in Colorado has him worried?

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

        even Romney’s political director and pollster said they are more confident about Iowa than Colorado. That after Sandy the President got a fairly good uptick among independents and women in Colorado over his “handling of the storm” Iowa they are just short of calling it “in the bag”…Florida and NC they said are “baked” and Virginia while closer than they wanted was still “baked”

        Biden running off to Ohio looks more like Tack for Tack than had Obama lept onto AF1 and ran to Ohio that would have sent shock waves that he was nervous. It is VERY VERY VERY close and I think Obama is walking the tight rope of trying to look and act confident but scared to death of slipping off the line.

        Romney has nothing to lose by campaigning right up until polls close, that is his job. The incumbant has to look confident.

        “tinfoil hat time” — if the Pat Cadell talk took place this morning…then Biden is merely a let’s at least not get spanked and make it look repsectable and maybe help the senate.

      • trux
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

        Recent polling in Colorado has not been what I had hoped.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

        I think they had the talk, Biden didn’t believe it, and went on his own. Why not?

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

        Sources say Biden wanted to catch an Indians game and figured he would campaign a bit today 😛 LOL

    • petep
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lowry took over National Review after WFB’s death and it has greatly declined. The Corner used to be the best place to get the latest election news and now it is mostly dead. I have almost deleted my bookmark many times.

      • M.White
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

        I have said this so many on this website and I am going to say it again….PLEASE STOP WORRYING ABOUT NRO, MOST OF THEM ARE TURNCOAT RINOS, I DON’T TRUST THEM AT ALL. PLEASE STOP GOING TO THEIR WEBSITE. USE BREITBART.COM, DRUDGE REPORT, TWITCHY, HUMAN EVENTS, HOT AIR, OR TOWNHALL. Rich Lowery is very wishy-washy and some of the other ones over at NRO are the same way. There are a couple of decent ones but still not worth paying attention to them. Remember, some of these so-called Republicans are in fact just Rinos and they make more money with Obama in office or other liberals. My gut just tells me not to trust them. Just like last night someone on that site reporting a bunch of BS about a source in the Romney campaign, no names, just BS, I don’t trust unnamed sources!

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney racks up over 300 EVs with very close outcomes in several states, then all of the likely paths for him to win really will still have been close. Battleground wins of 4+ points, maybe even 3+ points will be a different story.

  8. dizzymissl
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s Now Public: Editors Rejigger Polls

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/06/its-now-public-editors-rejigger-polls/

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      awesome!!

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yet will anyone get so much as their hand slapped for faking all the polls? I highly doubt it.
      ~ Brittany

      • Tom
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

        You are correct. One thing we have to realize as conservatives is that the leftist media will NEVER change, in fact they will get worse. That is why new-media exists and we will prevail not only today but also as time goes on.

  9. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Heres a good link to some election day reports from everywhere… http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open Its tea leaves but it may help you all with whats going on all over at polling spots.

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As far as I can tell this page hasn’t updated in 5 or so hours. Drudge, Breitbart, all of them seem asleep at the wheel today. Maybe they are all napping before this evening?

  10. JGS
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    By the way, Susquehanna has now posted the detail for their PA survey showing 47-47 tie. It is D+6 by registration, but what’s interesting to me is that when respondents were asked who they typically vote for, it was 40% R, 37% D, 23% “crossover” voters. So that is some indication that D registration advantage may mean less in PA than in other states, due to the apparent tendency of PA D voters to cross over and vote R.

    http://triblive.com/csp/mediapool/sites/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=0I0hwU$OuD57afFCPOEdD5M5tm0Zxrvol3sywaAHBAnBhXIYAMbbt6uusX5S9RVrE0$uXvBjavsllACLNr6VhLEUIm2tympBeeq1Fwi7sIigrCfKm_F3DhYfWov3omce$8CAqP1xDAFoSAgEcS6kSQ–&CONTENTTYPE=application/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=ptr-poll-110412.pdf

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Of course that is down from their previous poll showing Romney +4.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

        Peter did you vote for O today ? ITS PA.. The fact we are even talking about PA returns should illuminate everything to you.

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        No Chris I did not vote for O. I voted straight ticket Repub like I always do. It is just that I am cautiously optimistic and not overflowing with confidence like the O spin crew. And the analogy previous used several times by commenters here of the Peanuts strips every year with the Lucy holding the football gag is in the back of my mind for PA and several other states that often tease and rarely deliver. Again I am optimistic but not bubbly.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        Do I look bubbly? There is a REAL chance O will win today, there is no doubt, if you look at the numbers its a possibility. All you can do is vote, and hope the country agrees at the polls.. Check out some of tedly’s posts for some humor today! 🙂

      • JGS
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

        No question, but they are using a pretty conservative party ID of D+6 — in 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2. So even if you split the difference, you’d get D + 4.5, making D + 6 overly Democratic by 1.5 points. Also, you cannot ignore the factor of momentum this past weekend, 10/31 was the end of the polling period and people had the Obama-Christie bromance in their minds, and didn’t yet have a chance to see the horrors that would befall people in NY and NJ after 10/31 with continuing lack of power, heat, gasoline, food and water etc. So this is a very good poll, and, as noted, we’re talking about Pennsylvania, a state that no one really thought would end up being in play, and clearly is.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live here in SW PA. I just saw those internals. Romney is going to win PA. O was solid with only 43% of the voters. 3% “lean” O and 4% undecided. Lots of crossover–that’s the way it works here. I said 2 months ago if R ended the campaign in Pittsburgh he was going to win comfortably. Where will he be in 90 minutes, you ask?

  11. stuckinmass
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just noticed Rove upped his prediction from 279 to 285. Not sure what state he flipped, IA?

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Either Iowa or Nevada…..I imagine Iowa.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

        I really don’t see us winning NV. I used to go there every few weeks for work and there are **A LOT** of Hispanics. I think we all saw the recent article about illegal aliens being put on the voter rolls there.
        ~ Brittany

      • Hestrold
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

        Nevada is 4, Iowa is 6. He had Iowa yesterday as leaning Obama. Must be Iowa though.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

        He definately has IA on his map. I didn’t realize he was iffy on it before

  12. Tedley
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK – while I thought I was the newly minted Master of Tea Leaves, it turns out I’m really the grand Poo Bah or Mint Tea. But I can deal with that. I was watching MSNBC a bit ago and was speechless. They ran a 5 minute bit called “Elephants in the Room” – which was just 3rd grade mocking the whole Republican party. The only thing that was missing was a dis of Teddy Rosevlet – likely because none of the ignoramouses at MSNBC know that Teddy was a Repub. They just sound sooooo bitter – and resigned – and pissed – and my personal favorite TOTALLY self rightous – they know.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Love it Ted, keep the tea leaf reports coming, they are hilarious..

      • Tedley
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

        Dude – if really from CA – I understand your need for at least a litttle humor. The only folks in CA that aren’t stoned, or focusing on their inner self, or whatever, are just plain looney left and always in a bad mood.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

        Id be gone if I didn’t live by the beach in Orange County.. The R stronghold of CA. Yeah its loony here… 😦

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        CAChris, I used to live in Irvine, CA. I know exactly how you feel.
        ~ Brittany

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        That’s where I live Brit! 🙂 So yeah you know!

    • Dave
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The entire NBC clan is harcore partisan lib..from their website to their evening news

  13. Encima De Todo
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, which has a large Rebublican base despite how liberal the State is. The line at our polling place was as long as I’ve ever seen it. The interesting thing was that the woman in front of me calmly said that she went to law school with Obama and that he “was the same way then. Thought he was smarter than everyone. Naive in that way. He doesn’t get the bigger picture.” She clearly was voting for RR. (As a side note, I asked her about Barry’s law school grades. She said she assumes they were decent since he was on law review.) Cheers. Should be a wild night.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey, his qualifications for president must be decent, since Americans voted him president.

      And she’s talking about naivete?

  14. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some interesting tidbits from voters : I was in line at 7:00. I live right outside Philly. There were about 15 people ahead of me the first person in line pulled out his ID and the women running the polling site announced we don’t need that until it’s a law, I’m not doing it.

    Every person in line reached in their pockets pulled out their ID’s and laid them on the table while registering. So proud to be an American! The silent majority will be heard today!!!

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      love it!!

    • Tedley
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As it turns out – not so silent after all.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nice older lady this morning asks a mid to late 30’s african american woman for her drivers license….the lady stepped back and said “I dont have one, we dont need ID in missouri” the older lady looked up like grandma and said “how did you get here then dear, I just saw you put your keys in your purse…now do you have anything that proves you vote here?” with just the most lovely old lady smile you can have. The voting lady cracks this big old smile and whips out her driver’s license and away she voted.

      just thought it was funny

      • John
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

        They made Obama show his when he voted in Chicago and he thought nothing of it…hypocrasy!

  15. Brad
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Tea leaves in bellweather Pasco Co. FL:

    Adrian Gray @adrian_gray 17m
    In Pasco County, FL…GOP leads with election day voters 46% to 31%. pascovotes.com/turnout.asp
    View details ·

    McCain won this co. 51-48 in 2008.

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Adds up to only 77%? Oh, I see it says GOP not Romney so rest are Indys which should break R’s way by sig amount.

    • Alex
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pasco numbers look great…(as of 1pm)

      If we assume a 50%-50% split of unaffiliated/independent voters Romney is up by 9% …(matching Bush 2004)

      If has has 55%-45% split in the unaffiliated/independent voters Florida goes to Romney in a landslide

      • exe
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

        I think the last ABC poll had a pretty strong crossover vote in favor of RR as well. 55%-45% on independent voters + 2-3% on crossover would be even more than a landslide.

    • exe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Some neat information here. Looks like 61.8% of Republicans in the county have already voted, versus 55.7% of Democrats and 45.0% of Independents. Based on early voting typically leaning towards the DEMS, I would have to think this margin would expand throughout the day.

      Enthusiasm? I hope this translates to the rest of the country.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

        So over half the country has early voted? I don’t believe these numbers.

      • exe
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

        Over half the county, not country. Over 2/3s of the votes are absentee or early. The data is directly from the county’s Supervisor of Elections.

      • Xdust
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

        @Christian. Actually, I would bet over half the country has voted already.

        Approx 40% voted in early/Absentee voting. That would mean only approx 10-15% would have to vote by now to go over 50%.

        I think thats entirely possible.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida's_5th_congressional_district

      McCain won this district 56-43 in 08′

      It includes Pasco county, seems pretty Republican heavy already. Don’t think we can read into these Pasco county numbers

      • exe
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        The actual county went to McCain 51-48. These figures are suggesting a double digit win for RR, more reminiscent of 2004 where Bush won 54-44

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

        Ok excellent. Today is soo exciting!

    • lotmini
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      bush won pasco by only 9 in 04. if this is a trend, Romney winner bigger than Bush o4!

    • exe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Are there any other counties out there that publish similar data?

      • MCRICHIE
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

        i live in the county next to pasco pinellas it doesn’t matter about fl, we are going to win here comfortably it’s ohio , pa , co, va, and iowa (nh) !!

    • exe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Looks like these results are holding steady with the 2PM update.

  16. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/54254.html

    Reading this battleground county poll has me psyched. Ohio & NH numbers going to Romney, wow. I am walking with a step lighter now.

    • Tom
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t be surprised! Mitt-Mentum!

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow if those Suffolk county figures are correct, R/R will win real big in OH… I would be shocked if those are accurate and he loses OH.. Matter of fact those numbers should carry him in PA and WI if that’s truly the voting sentiment.. Fascinating!!!

  17. Japes
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any thoughts on Wisconsin? Have they utilized Ryan enough there? I figured they would make a much more aggressive play for it. Assuming CO in the bag, adding WI would be a very plausible second path.

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My theory on Wisky is that Obama basically abandon the Dems there leading up to the Walker recall by not getting involved. He even flew over Wisky twice the week prior to the recall while traveling from Chicago to Minneapolis but would not stop in Wisky. That recall was almost like a life/death situation to many of the public union folks so Obama being agnostic about it cannot be helping their motivation to show up today. Walker’s machine is still in place from June. Romney wins Wisconsin by ~2% is my prediction.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Japes, I think WI goes to R/R… Its been moving R for awhile, The walker recall was the first step.. It seems odd with Obama’s record they would lurch back to the left after 10, but hey, GET OUT THE VOTE.. never know till they count!

      • Japes
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

        Great. I’m not in the know of the RR visits to WI in the last 1 or 2 weeks. With the legit toss up in OH, the WI+CO+(NH/IA) is def tenable. I’m not as rosy with the 300+ talk but I see 275-290ish. Does WI have EVing?

      • John
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        I believe WI only has absentee voting, not in person early voting. What they do have also though is same day voter registration, even for presidential elections. That normally works in favor of Dems but not so sure this time. There may be a lot of small town/rural conservative leaning folks who are not registered and they may show up. We’ll see.

  18. dizzymissl
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    RR at 31.5 on Intrade. I think that is the highest I have seen today.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah Obama dropped about 3% in the last half hour. I wonder if something is up….

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

        intrade is such a waste lol.. The Euros must just watch RCP and think its easy money? No idea but those sites make me laugh.

    • MichaelG
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wish I had an account there. A lot of free money available today.

    • Bunker It Up
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Intrade is not always accurate . Had Bush in 2000 on Election Day at 28% during the day.

  19. Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well, it is all over for Obama….

    This is just a very small list of reasons:

    10. Are you better off than you were four years ago?
    9. Do you feel America is heading in the right direction?
    8. Is the current President bringing Americans together?
    7. This is NOT 2008 !
    6. The GOP is not for bigger government as they were in the early 2000’s.
    5. People are not staying home on election day.
    4. The main street press does NOT represent main street.
    3. Both candidates now have a record… which do you want?
    2. Our rights are from our Creator, not from Uncle Sam !!!
    1. My Mother-in law voted for a Republican President today !!!!!
    Need I say more?

  20. JGS
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Trolls have accused us of having built an “alternate reality” here on this site. What I would like to know is this. Is there an alternate reality in Philadelphia and Chicago that entitles pro-Obama poll workers to break our election laws with impunity?

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/election-judge-wears-obama-cap-while-checking-voters-obamas-chicago-ward_661843.html

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I assume your question is rhetorical because the obvious answer is YES!!

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am getting so sick of the double standard. Democrats do something, everyone overlooks it. Republicans sneeze the wrong way, and we are attacked. Really tired of it.
      ~ Brittany

    • JGS
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How about Nevada, illegal immigrants, and labor unions? They get a free pass too? It is pretty obvious why the Democrats don’t like voter ID laws, isn’t it? It’s not about protecting people who actually are entitled to vote from being discriminated against. It’s about preserving their opportunity to CHEAT!

      http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2012/11/05/allegation-unions-putting-illegal-immigrants-voter-rolls-clouds-nevada-voting

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        Well of course. The Dems will do anything – ANYTHING – to win. And they only support regulations/rules/laws that help them in that.
        ~ Brittany

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh – Come on now JGS. Don’t be so tough on this guy. He’s just doing his job.

      And, really, think about it. By giving someone two ballots he’s “ensuring” someone that couldn’t make it to the polls wouldn’t be disenfranchised.

      Yeah – that’s it. He’s an election judge. He’s protecting justice. Yeah – that’s right. He’s standing up for the United States OF AMERICA!

      NOT!

    • Svigor
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I spent about an hour reading Nate Silver’s blog comments yesterday. His cultists had nothing to say about early voting. They were too busy crowing about the top line averages and “math.” Beats me how an election requires anything more than arithmetic to add the vote tallies, but there you go.

      Totally ignoring the early vote counts? That’s what I call a bubble.

  21. stuckinmass
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    odds that Nate Silver followers are soilling their pants? 70%?

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      lol what happed with good ol RCP watcher nate?

    • JGS
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s funny, you go on Daily Kos, they believe that folks like us are going to be soiling our pants. Someone has been very, very wrong about this election. I believe it is Nate Silver and his followers, because (like Peter Palco and bks on this site) they are obsessed with the top line poll results and never seem to talk about the unlikelihood of the party ID that is baked into these polls actually materializing once all the votes are cast.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

        As I said immediately above, they’re all still blabbering about top lines of polls. They have nothing to say about early voting. That’s utter detachment from reality if you ask me. The polls are not the ones voting today, or the ones voting over the last 2 weeks (or whatever it is) of early voting.

  22. Tedley
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK – this is just too good not to mention. Bob Schrum was just on Andrea Mitchell. He was head cheerleader for both Algore in 2000 and the 2004 Dem John Kerry, who fought in Vietnam by the way. He ended his comments by worrying about this new kind of animal – the partisan pollster who doesn’t tell the truth, but instead reports what his masters want him to report. Really? That’s been the problem this cycle? Pollsters over reporting Repubs? Un – freaking – believeable. I can’t decide if I live in 1937 Germany or 2050 Bizzaro World.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah. There’s comedy.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

        And you’d think Greenspan could afford better looking arm candy.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m sure he didn’t name names..

      • Tedley
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

        Of course not – just all about generic – they want to suppress voters – they hate people – they are racist bigot homophobes – and they have all these polsters that over-report Repubs. Among the 12,617 things that don’t make any sense about what he said is – ALL OF THE POLLS SAY BAMSTER IS WINNING!!!!!! so which of them is not telling the truth from this bulbous nosed moron?

    • Dave
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “what his masters want him to report”

      And who exactly would those masters be? We alerady know because we’ve been talking about for the past month. The guys with the money….even when they say it’s not about the $$$ it’s still always sabout the $$$

  23. Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am not a polling expert, can somebody explain this plz

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Catalist is a Dem Polling outfit by a guy that worked for Clinton.. That is saying D+14 not happening.. More biased pie in the sky polling.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

        You know what – I think those *are* 2008 numbers.

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s a Democrat cheerleader posting up numbers. Are they bogus? Yes, most likely.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        There is no ARE in that, those are complete assumptions based on guessing party affiliations.. Complete garbage, ignore.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D +14 in EV.

      They had 1.45 EV in 2008.

      But this doesn’t make sense against numbers I saw out of Cuyahoga and Franklin last night.

      If this is true, this is much better for the Dems than I thought.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      believe this may be some of the bogus data that some in the legit media are saying are flowing out of Ohio disguised as official data.

      According to the Blaze one of their writers was told by an Obama source they will declare victory early so as to demoralize Romney voters…..I think you are seeing how they will try it here. I look for MASSIVE tweets with official sounding informating out of battlegrounds showing massive Obama turnout and leads as to try and demoralize romneyites from showing up.

      DO NOT FEED THE ANIMALS, IGNORE THE BEASTS

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s possible they’re just going by ‘party’. Some polls had EV+AB going 2-1 for Obama so I’ll take 15% or so.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is about 25 percent of the total vote in 08.

      The last CNN poll had RR winning the Election Day vote by 13 points.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

        So, I will take that all day!!!!

  24. Ranger375
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My take so for on TV and of course scientific. Democrats 😦 Republicans 🙂

    • Tedley
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey – given that none of us will have ANY REAL DATA for about 6 more hours – Tea leaves are great for now. And I agree with you scientific assessment.

      • Ranger375
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

        Thank you — I have a team of analysts crunching the data — although in the spirit of full disclosure — the dog will do anything for a dog treat.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I feel like a jerk gloating about our win but you know what? They rubbed it in our faces in 2008 big time. So I guess I shouldn’t feel bad, last election was theirs, this one is ours.
      ~ Brittany

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

        I admire your grit but it still is a little early for gloating. We don’t want to be like those Dewey supporters who woke up in 1948 to that famous pre-printed headline.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

        Sorry Peter but you won’t get me down. 🙂
        ~ Brittany

      • trux
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

        Well the result might get you down. I was just as confident in 2000 as you are today, and the polling numbers were much better for us then than now. Just keep that in mind..

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

        I’m not going to feel like a jerk gloating at them. I’m going to enjoy rubbing their faces in it.

  25. M.White
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We need some updates from the battleground states, who’s voting, waiting lines, any early number or estimates…I live in a rural area of western NC so I know nothing about what’s going on on the ground. All quiet in my little neighborhood…wouldn’t even know there were millions voting, just a sleepy little street, but I love it! Out here we are just in our own little world. I voted 2 weeks ago…I am so nervous about tonight, need some sort of nerve medicine or stiff drink to get through it. If Romney wins I think I will run outside in the cold and cut cartwheels across the yard which I haven’t done since elementary school.

    • Jed
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t mean to feed this anecdotal frenzy because these observations are not of much use. Having said that, very very busy in my slice of VA. Obama won here by 62% in ’08.

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t worry. Start drinking!

  26. PJBRIEN
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For those of you worried about Northern Virginia here is a post of mine from yesterday to allay your fears.

    Regards to Virginia – we live and work in Northern Virginia and headed out for lunch about 90 minutes ago to Chipotle in Vienna, VA. (3 soft tacos with mild salsa, cheese and lettuce) Vienna is a small town in the heart of Fairfax County which went for Obama in 2008 by 60 – 39.

    Since we were coming from Fairfax City about 20 minutes away we decided to do a count of yard signs along the way. Rules were simple – only one sign counted per home and a really big sign counts for 2.

    Final results……….

    Romney 50

    Obama 38

    This is amazing seeing as most of these signs were counted in Vienna which is even more liberal than the County of Fairfax.

    My prediction for tomorrow is 50.5 for R 48.5 for Obama.

    While I was out there I bumped into Marist doing some polling – they were standing on the side of the road counting bumper stickers on Prius’s – Tied at 47 with a D +37

    • PJBRIEN
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In other words don’t worry about long lines in NOVA (as we like to call it) Romney will manage the gap here and win VA by 3-4 points.

    • Jeff
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Been to that Chipotle. They need more parking, lol.

  27. M.White
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    WE NEED SOME UPDATES, NEW POSTS FROM KEITH, ANYTHING, DYING OUT HERE! HELP, NEED INFO, AND CAN SOMEONE GIVE ANY UPDATES ON REAL OHIO EARLY VOTE NUMBERS??? WHAT’S GOING ON IN VA, FL, NC, NH, OH, PN, WI AND SO ON? CAN ANYONE GET A READ ABOUT WHAT’S GOING ON???

    • Kevin Paradine
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gird your loins, nothing new for 5 more hours. Then we start seeing returns. If you are hooked into the Romney campaign, you can make phone calls for them in the meantime.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Dude I wish I could email you a shot of vodka.. Take it easy, its too early to get more info.. 🙂

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Take a valium, sleep for 7 hours and wake up to find out.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      White – http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open

      Read all that, lol..

    • Tedley
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Like I said earlier. No new data for about 6 more hours. Let Keith rest – I’m sure he needs it – and in the meantime we can entertain ourselves by watching the MSNBC/CNN crowd look the way we felt in 2008 – just can’t believe the country was stupid enough to elect that moron.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

        Don’t even get me started. I knew that guy was an empty suit from the moment he started looking competitive with Clinton.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I wish I could help you. Here in CO, everyone I know has voted early. My father is working the polls today as part of the ORCA program but he hasn’t told me anything except there is a huge turnout at his polling place. He has mainly been asking ME for updates such as the illegal stuff Dems are doing across the country whenever he steps out into the parking lot.
      ~ Brittany

    • margaret
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A nice rumor (take with grain of salt but…)

      Todd Kincannon ‏@ToddKincannon
      Rumor is Obama campaign just realized they are losing Ohio. Just dispatched Joe Biden to Cleveland on an emergency basis. Very interesting.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

        LoL. Because Joe bumbling around will really give all those unemployed and in poverty jobs and food on the table! What a joke. They are going down hard.
        ~ Brittany

      • margaret
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

        From same guy.

        Todd Kincannon ‏@ToddKincannon
        From the internal turnout numbers I’m seeing from my friends on campaigns, GOP turnout is unprecedented. Dem turnout is below average.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

        This is even better – they had somebody on CNN complaining that all the candidtate visits to Cleveland were suppressing the vote because no one could drive due to the candidate based traffic jams. Of couse they said is was a Romney trick, but left out the part where JoJo creates about ten times the traffic problems.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

        WHOO! Keep is coming Margaret! I always thought there’d be a huge R wave but hearing it’s actually happening is so exciting!
        ~ Brittany

      • Dave
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

        Obama strikes me as done with it all. He’s sick of campaigning (one more piece of anecdotal evidence if you ask me). Biden has talked of entertaining a run at the white house so he plays the good soldier.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

        Dave, I’ve said it before, but I’ve also learned very well over the last 10 years to repeat things endlessly if you want them to sink in, so I’ll say it again; Barry’s heart isn’t really in this. His pride is in this, but not his heart. His heart wants to leave the White House and all that icky work and live someplace exotic like Hawaii. His heart wants to start collecting the insane amounts of cash he’s going to make on the post-presidential lecture circuit (where politicians go to collect on their bribes in modern American politics).

        0bama’s going to be the richest ex-president ever. Why would someone who doesn’t really care about America want to spend another 4 years as president, when he could spend them collecting huge sums on the lecture circuit and playing basketball?

      • Svigor
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

        And if Biden thinks he’s got a shot at the WH, he’s even more nuts than I thought.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      ‏@katyabram
      Just spoke to guy from @PAGOP said Jonestown precinct has 30% GOP so far and 14% Dem. GOP turnout twice it was in 2008

  28. blato
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks Keith for your blog. I just found it this week, and it’s helped me to stay sane.

    I’m 53 and have been watching elections since I was a teenager. This is the strangest Presidential election I’ve ever seen. All (and I mean all) of the significant anecdotal info suggests a Romney win (demeanor of the candidates, demeanor of their surrogates, enthusiam at campaign events, year-to-year comparisons, etc.), but the polls suggest something else. Well, here’s my thoughts on the polls:

    1. Even though most have significant issues (see below) at both the state and national levels, a Romney win is still within the statistical margin of error. I have a mathematics/statistics background. A Romney win nationally by even 2-3% shouldn’t raise an eyebrow statistically.

    2. However, the 50% or so of the polls that are not just statistical garbage appear to have systemic issues that raise legitimate questions:

    – The demographic models used by most are assumed (not validated) and the polling organizations (with the exception of a few – e.g. Rasmussen and Gallup) are not attempting to validate and improve them to match current reality

    – The methodologies for most polls are consistently undersampling Republicans (garbage in = garbage out)

    – The pollsters have not figured out how to address biases introduced by ever-increasing early voting. Instead of becoming more accurate closer to the election, the polls could be getting less accurate as the impacts of early voting increase

    I don’t think the credible polling organizations are purposefully biasing the polls – I think they are not addressing these systemic issues.

    Hence, I trust Barone and Rove over Silver. Silver is reliant on statistical information that could be significantly wrong. Barone and Rove know the electorate and the election history, county-by-county. They could also be wrong, but at least their conclusions are based on facts not just statistical modeling.

    Win or lose (and I’m confident Romney will win) it has been a pleasure reading the comments from so many like-minded and rational people. Thanks all!

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Blato, well said man, couldn’t have summed it up better.. +!

    • Japes
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Blato. Where were you this whole time! Good level headed analysis. We can always use the statistical and technical expertise.

  29. John
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    so by this time of day in 2004 there were all sorts of leaks about Kerry winning big. Haven’t seen any of that. O-camp may see they are so far behind that supressing turnout a couple percent just won’t matter. More tea leaves?

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Other then the deep liberal pundits I haven’t seen anyone from team O predict a big win.. So who knows! Good ol waiting game.. Get out the vote! Win or lose this whole election cycle is one for the history books, fascinating!

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The fact that some members of Team O (volunteers?) were actually seen crying in Chicago is very, very telling to me. Last night Reince Preibus looked like he was about to pee his pants he was so excited.
      ~ Brittany

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well the restrictions on release of exit polling are much tougher now. They let reporters in without electronic devices at 11 a.m. for a first look, but they can’t disseminate any info to their respective organizations until around 5 p.m. EST.

  30. Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I was voter #202 around 9 a.m. in a Milwaukee, WI suburb (part of Paul Ryan’s 1st Cong. District). No lines. Most of the cars in the parking lot had Ryan for Congress, Romney or leftover “Stand With Walker” stickers. Only saw one car with an Obama sticker. Doesn’t surprise me, though. This area went 66% for Walker in June and went 64% for McCain in ’08. I’m taking a person to the polls later today, during the rush-hour, so I’ll be able to judge turnout better then. The voter turnout in this area is paramount to a Romney win. He needs to run-up the margins in the southern Milwaukee ‘burbs (Hales Corners, Franklin, Oak Creek, Greendale, Greenfield) and Waukesha Co. to cancel out the margin from the city of Milwaukee. I’m going to be watching those returns and Green Bay (Brown Co.). If Brown Co goes for Romney, it’s most likely the state will, too.

    • Japes
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What are your thoughts on Wisconsin? You feel Romney is in good shape? WI+CO+(IA or NH) Is the best alternate path.

  31. Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good news in iowa!
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332730/report-one-iowas-most-liberal-counties-eliana-johnson

  32. Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    they are locking down Exit Numbers so as to not have a repeat of 04. Apparently at 5pm est the media outlet will begin to be allowed to REPORT TRENDS ONLY….they are NOT allowed to give out exact or actual numbers from Exit polls.

    Also most of the MSM have strongly rebuked their newsrooms to refrain from or at least be extremely careful with what information they tweet or retweet from other outlets. The theme seems to be it isn’t about being first in 2012 it is about be RIGHT. <<< We shall see.

    If Obama looks good they will crawl all over themselves to call it. If Romney looks good I will imagine "Too Close to Call" through Thanksgiving 🙂

    • Dave
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Intrade might be a tell. Whatch the guys that get the info first start trying to scrape some dollars out of that. Journalistts aren’t the most overpaid individuals.

      • Dave
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

        “overpaid individuals.”

        let me rephrase that…the most highly paid individuals.

  33. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    @Tedley “This is even better – they had somebody on CNN complaining that all the candidtate visits to Cleveland were suppressing the vote because no one could drive due to the candidate based traffic jams. Of couse they said is was a Romney trick, but left out the part where JoJo creates about ten times the traffic problems.”

    I think it’s a problem. Look, it’s Tuesday, people are going to vote on their lunch hour. Any outside delay is BS. People have to work.

    I’ve never understood why Election Day isn’t on Saturday when far more people do not have to work.

    • Tedley
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well – if it’s a problem call Bamster. He’s the one whe sent JoJo into Cleveland today.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      basically the reasons are that while it would benefit those who work….it could also hurt those who 1) do not have child care on the weekends when they aren’t working and 2) weekend mass transit and other forms of transportationaly services that many in the lower class, eldery, etc rely on to get to the polls do not run as wide of schedules as during the work week.

      These are a few of the reasons that are why it is not changed.

      BUT the real reason is because election day is set by the US Congress and has been for 160+ years changing things that are big deals. It was set as the first tuesday in November because tuesdays in the old days when travel sometimes took a day to get to a poll did not intefer with the biblical sabbath nor the farm/cattle market days which were normally on wednesdays.

  34. Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I was voter #202 around 9 a.m. in a Milwaukee, WI suburb (part of Paul Ryan’s 1st Cong. District). No lines. Most of the cars in the parking lot had Ryan for Congress, Romney or leftover “Stand With Walker” stickers. Only saw one car with an Obama sticker. Doesn’t surprise me, though. I’m in a city that went 66% for Walker in June and went 64% for McCain in ’08. I’m taking a person to the polls later today, during the rush-hour, so I’ll be able to judge turnout better then. The voter turnout in this area is paramount to a Romney win. He needs to run-up the margins in the southern Milwaukee ‘burbs (Hales Corners, Franklin, Oak Creek, Greendale, Greenfield) and Waukesha Co. to cancel out the margin from the City of Milwaukee. I’m going to be watching those returns and Green Bay (Brown Co.). If Brown Co goes for Romney, it’s most likely the state will, too.

    I saw earlier comments wondering about R/R appearances in the state and WI’s early voting. Ryan held a sizable rally in Milwaukee last night and Romney was in town over the weekend, holding a huge crowd on the State Fair grounds. As far as early voting goes, it’s technically absentee but you can vote in person at your municipal clerk’s office during the two weeks prior to the election; they just put the ballot after voting in an absentee envelope. That’s what I did in June for the Recall election. Furthermore, there is day of registration.

    • Japes
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks. I was wondering. Personal thoughts on Wisconsin?

  35. Kyle
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This Pasco County Florida information is great. This county has about 10% more Republicans than Democrats but the Repulicans are outvoting the Democrats by 22%. This implies higher Republican turnout than Democrat turnout among registered voters. Republicans held an early voting an advantage, but the in-person Republican advantage compared to the early voting advantage is much higher. The old addage about Republicans showing up in greater numbers on election day is turning out to be true. If this pattern holds in the rest of the country, we have won.

    http://pascovotes.com/turnout.asp

    • MCRICHIE
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Florida for the 4 weeks was in RR camp i dont understand why O spent so much money here !!

      • Kyle
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

        Registered voters in Pasco County:

        Republicans 120,860
        Democrats 108,154

        Total turnout among registered voters in Pasco County

        57.3% of registered Democrats have voted
        63.6% of Registered Republicans have voted

        Turnout R +6.3

        The margins increase in Republicans favor every hour.

    • exe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +1. It seems like FL is over. It’s just a question now of how much the data from Pasco translates to the rest of the country.

      • MCRICHIE
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

        its is over in fl —-pasco is one of many counties in florida that have symbolic dem registration but they usually vote republican!!

  36. MCRICHIE
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    intrade is a joke, my book will only give me even odds today –lol

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You should arbitrage it then – free money.

  37. margaret
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wisconsin:

    Todd Marohl ‏@mufansince72

    @TCJResearch anecdotal reports in wis show very heavy t/o in GOP areas. Normal in dem areas

  38. Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t know how many people read most of these reports as it is quite long on Breitbart but I did and what struck me was even in solid republican parts of the country the very long lines. If they are doing this in red states you can bet they are the same in battleground states. I think the silent majority has finally said “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH”
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open

  39. NMVM
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m stuck in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, so I have nothing to add to the turnout discussion (but keep it coming – I want to hear more from you later hoefsdf). However, I can add a bit of Wall Street information to the mix. Obviously, health care stocks are going to move based on what info comes out about the election. It’s important to remember that not all health care stocks will react equally to news though. Also remember that hedge fund types have been giving a lot to both campaigns and while I don’t have any direct evidence – I think it’s quite possible for some exit poll data to slip from campaign HQ to interested donors with lots of money tied up in these stocks. So with that in mind, take a look at this chart:

    http://tinyurl.com/aallwa5

    AET: Health insurance companies are expected to benefit marginally from repeal of Obamacare. They benefit from the mandate – uhh, I mean tax – because it forces people to buy their products, but they don’t like the uncertainty surrounding a lot of the new regulations. If Romney is expected to win, this stock should trade flat to up.
    HCA: Hospitals are huge beneficiaries from Obamacare. A repeal would take a lot of easy money from them.
    S&P 500: Just a baseline to show you what the rest of the market is doing today.

    Both stocks started down a little, but then something kicked in at ~9:45 AM (earliest exit polls/turnout indications?). AET rebounded and is now flat. HCA just TANKED and is still trending down.

    Just to be clear. I have no money in either of these stocks. I asked my friend who researches these stocks for a living which stocks would move the most on election news, and this is what he gave me this morning. Needless to say, we’re both pretty happy so far.

  40. Buckeye Bob
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am curious what most of you will use tonight as the aggregate site for the election totals and analysis. I normally have Fox on TV (mainly because of Michael Barone), with CNN and the SOS office for Ohio on my computer. I recall during the Daschle/Thune race, there was a South Dakota site that was fantastic as the guy knew every South Dakota precinct. I haven’t found any (other than Keith’s here–LoL). Anyway, appreciate any input you good people have. Ohio weather is great in my area (Butler County) and anticipate very solid Romney totals here.

    • Kyle
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m going to stick with Fox News.

    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Watching Fox toggle with CNN, taping MSNBC (for weekend entertainment). Will find a site that has maps by country for all states (likely CNN) and will be toggling between states looking at bellweather counties – and calling states before the media does…Will be filling in my map as we go. Yes, I’m a tool.

      • MassLiberty
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

        and checking battlegroundwatch – of course!!!

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

        I actually go with CNN…they seem to be on average less partisan and less annoying. Their panelists are more to the subdued side. MSNBC…yeah no. FOX is okay for the post-mordem bu I really cannot stand Hannity and O’Reiley and Juan Williams, etc.

        So if all goes well I will watch CNN. If knock wood, throw salt, grab a rabbit’s foot, say like Pennsylvania, Wisconison, etc flip…I will be on MSNBC so fast so I can catch the panelists’ quick succession gun shots as Chris Matthews blathers his way to a stroke just before biting down on his cyanide capsule LOL

      • Tara
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

        Is there a way to watch MSNBC online? Do they have a livestream? I unfortunately don’t get it in my cable package and don’t miss it but wouldn’t mind the entertainment tonite.

  41. Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey can someone speak up when a majority of us followers start to switch to commenting on a new blog post here through out the afternoon and night?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: