Romney leading between 3-5 points in New Hampshire Bellwether Towns — Suffolk Polling (Nov 4)

DISCLAIMER:  This is NOT today’s exit polling data.  The poll was conducted Nov 1 -4 and published Nov 5.

Suffolk polling takes it a step further and tracks the preferences of Battleground Towns Epping and Milford in New Hampshire and find Mitt Romney with slight leads:

Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in New Hampshire statewide and the comparative votes of Epping and Milford:

1996 – Clinton
Statewide: 50 percent
Epping:      50 percent
Milford:     48 percent

2000 – Bush
Statewide: 49 percent
Epping:       48 percent
Milford:      50 percent

2004 – Bush
Statewide:
50 percent
Epping:       50 percent
Milford:      51 percent

2008 – Obama
Statewide
: 54 percent
Epping:       53 percent
Milford:      52 percent

16 Comments

  1. David
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Let’s hope the recent trend holds.

  2. Tom
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:01 am | Permalink | Reply

    There is a 108.39% chance Romney wins NH. (Mocking silver)

    • Eli
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      I love that. I wonder whether, sometime after the race is called tonight, he announces that

      “I’ve tweaked the model a bit to reflect the most recent polling data. Although the finality of the most recent poll awaits verification and may in fact be incorrect (see Florida, 2000) {before anyone jumps on me, let me remind you tha I am predicting Nate Silver’s words, not mine}, my incredible accurate model now says that there is 100.00% chance of Mitt Romney becoming the next POTUS. On a cold January day in 2013, I expect this prediction to be proven correct, due to the infallibility of simple math and science”.

      • Eli
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink

        “he” in the first line of my above post refers to Nate Silver, in case I wasn’t clear

      • Tom
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink

        It has been 11 minutes since I last ran my model, however with the new information available, I now predict a 112.469% Romney wins NH. Will update as new info comes available.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink

        That’s amazing. I just ran my model and it shows a 112.468% chance Romney wins. With ALL the models getting the same number – there is no way we can be wrong.

      • Tom
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:20 am | Permalink

        Well Tedley, one of us is wrong … there is a difference of 0.001%

      • Eric
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:43 am | Permalink

        Nate Silver is an idiot. I know math and statistics probably about as well as he does. Back in the spring I built a Monte Carlo simulation (same as Silver) for my fantasy baseball league. It showed my team as having a huge probability of winning the league. I ended up 3rd out of 10. Turns out there were other variables that I did not consider when building the model. Nate Silver has the same problem. There are outside variables that he’s not considering.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just ran my old model in NH, and I have a 113.245423094% chance Romney wins. Of course, if Obama gets more votes, there will then be a 100% chance that he wins.

  3. kenberthiaume
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    hope so, both of those towns are near the Mass. border, where Romney was governor…. so hopefully it still holds, but things are always a little different.

  4. M.White
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Philly GOP: Poll inspectors being ousted for Dems
    Court-appointed Republican poll inspectors are being forcibly removed from voting stations in some Philadelphia wards and replaced in some cases by Democratic inspectors and even members of the Black Panthers, according to GOP officials.

    Secrets just received this memo from GOP officials:

    The Philadelphia GOP is reporting that court appointed Minority (read GOP) Inspectors are being thrown out of polling locations in several Wards.

    These Inspectors are election officials – again, court appointed — and are reportedly being thrown out by the Head Judges of Elections (these Judges are elected Democrats) and being replaced by Democrats.

    This has happened at the following locations:

    Ward 32, Div 13

    Ward 43, Div 14

    Ward 56, Div 1

    Ward 56, Div 22

    Ward 32, Div 28

    Ward 32, Div 28

    Ward 12, Div 17

    Ward 39, Div 1

    Ward 24, Div 9

    Ward 18, Div 25

    Ward 43, Div 14

    Ward 29, Div 18

    Ward 65, Div 19

    Ward 20, Div 1

    Ward 6, Div 11

    Another official told Secrets: “one of our female inspectors was physically thrown out.”

    Presidential candidate Mitt Romney decided at the last minute to make stops in Pennsylvania, believing that the race there was close enough that he could win.

    UPDATE: JUDGE IN PHILLY, PA ISSUED ORDER FOR REPUBLICAN POLL WORKERS TO BE ALLOWED BACK IN, SHERIFF’S DEPT. TO HELP WITH THIS AND TO STAY CLOSE TO PROTECT THIS ORDER.

  5. M.White
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    Black Panthers Return to Philly, GOP Tossed Out UPDATE: FIGHT
    UPDATE: Confirmed report of a fight in a poll at 10th & Chew. Ward 49, Div 7. Democrats were trying to forcibly remove GOP poll inspector.

    The Philadelphia GOP is reporting that court appointed Minority (read GOP) Inspectors are being thrown out of polling locations in several Wards.

    Reports on the ground indicate the Black Panthers are at polling locations.
    The Philadelphia Inquirer is on it: https://twitter.com/tomfitzgerald/status/265784062617206785These Inspectors are election officials – again, court appointed — and are reportedly being thrown out by the Head Judges of Elections (these Judges are elected Democrats) .

    This has happened at the following locations:

    Ward 32, Div 13

    Ward 43, Div 14

    Ward 56, Div 1

    Ward 56, Div 22

    Ward 32, Div 28

    Ward 32, Div 28

    Ward 12, Div 17

    Ward 39, Div 1

    Ward 24, Div 9

    Ward 18, Div 25

    Ward 43, Div 14

    Ward 29, Div 18

    Ward 65, Div 19

    Ward 20, Div 1

    Ward 6, Div 11

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      It would be nice if you could any mainstream news source, either left or right, to source for this. Putting this in google news only turns up blogs. I don’t doubt it is true, but it is easy to veer from the truth when relying on a cluster of sources that all likely track back to one or two blogs only. They need better confirmation, and of course for the actions to continue which they may not now.

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:58 am | Permalink

        http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:06 am | Permalink

        Thanks for that Foxnews link. The last couple paragraphs say:

        “Despite the high number of officials who were allegedly booted, the dispute itself is not uncommon for Philadelphia. Fred Voigt, legal counsel for the city commissioners, said these kinds of face-offs happen “with regularity” in the City of Brotherly Love.

        “It happens all the time,” Voigt said. He said court-appointed Republican officials typically show up on Election Day and end up squaring off against stand-in officials at the polling sites filling in the open seats. Part of the problem, he said, is that the Republican inspectors are appointed on relatively short notice, leading to a string of confrontations on Election Day.

        “There are no cool heads here,” Voigt said. ”

        So as long as it gets squared away now and folks haven’t gone through the line 3 times before it is, then hopefully this is over. Of course that official could have been more honest and said something like “this happens all the time in big-city machine driven elections where they scrap for every edge possible whether ethical or not.”

  6. MCRICHIE
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Filthy philly, it happens ever election cycle. at least they are consistent.

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