Romney +4 in Ohio Battleground County (Lake) — Suffolk Polling (Nov 4)

DISCLAIMER:  This is NOT today’s exit polling data.  The poll was conducted Nov 1 -4 and published Nov 5.

I wish I saw this yesterday as this is the exact type of Battleground County polling I would have loved to see this cycle.  Suffolk Polling does a great service digging down on this bellwether county and has some interesting results:

In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.

“What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote.”

Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in Ohio and percentage of votes received statewide and the comparative vote of Lake County:

1996 – Clinton
Statewide
:    47 percent
Lake County: 44 percent

2000 – Bush
Statewide
:     50 percent
Lake County: 50 percent

2004 – Bush
Statewide
:     51 percent
Lake County: 51 percent

2008 – Obama
Statewide
:     52 percent
Lake County: 50 percent

93 Comments

  1. MCRICHIE
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    i actually think Sufflok has one of the best state races track record.

    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, love the idea of going into a bell-weather with a small population and a large sample…rather than a whole state. It’s much more accurate. I think that’s why they were able to call FL, NC, and VA a month ago. Iwish someone would be able to tell us which 2-3 counties to watch in each state. Keith???

      • d.ssims@comcast.net
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink

        In Ohio…Lake and Sandusky counties.

      • Cody
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink

        Ottowa and Sandusky are the ones to watch for. In the long run, Ottowa has picked the winner something like 16/17 times.

  2. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Wow that’s excellent news.. Lets hope the turnout matches the poll!

  3. stuckinmass
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Some anecdotal evidence, take it with a grain of salt
    A family member in Northampton County in PA (blue county) said no lines at his polling place.
    Here in MA, I’m hearing about lines in suburban areas, but not in the more urban areas

    • Mimecrime
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’m in PA(northampton also) in a Blue County. Zero wait at all. No O signs at all here and 4 years ago they were everywhere

    • Pa John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      Dauphin County PA huge lines.

      • Mimecrime
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink

        Is Dauphin red?

      • Pa John
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink

        Yes, although 08 was blue for 1st time ever.

  4. Medicine Man
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    This micro polling in Bellwether counties may be the wave of the future.

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      Makes everything much more accurate

  5. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Dick Morris tripling down on his predication this morning about 20 mins ago.. Staking his rep on it… Interesting.

    Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

    Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213

  6. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think dick morris knows something 🙂

    • live_free290248
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Morris doesn’t know anything. He is always wrong.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink

        I somewhat agree with Free (yeah for once). I think he has insight, be he was pushing that McCain was going to win blah, blah blah…so I don’t necessarily hang my hat on what he says….Now Barone and Rove..those guys give you the news (the good, the bad and the ugly)…

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

      Morris has made a ton of $$$ during the Obama presidency with 4-5 books about socialist/U.N takeover of our country. If Romney wins big what will Dick do?

  7. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    so far looking good for romney

  8. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    Laura Ingraham ‏@IngrahamAngle

    OH Gov. @JohnKasich says Romney is going to win his state by a good margin

    Said 20 mins ago.. More Tea leaves?

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s the governor’s that know

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      Even though I agree, what is he to say? Well, we are 9 hours from the polls closing, but the auto bailout and the negative ads….

  9. housebroken dad
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not buying those early voting numbers leaked on Gannett and Cincinnati.com. Conspiracy.

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Possible, but it ties together with the e-mail from the Obama camp late yesterday evening telling supporters to ignore the early vote reports. Still, it could be a setup. Best to ignore.

    • Tedley
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      Trust me – they are not real. The SoS has been very public and very clear on when vote totals will be released. And it’s not The Cincinnati Inquirer (very credible), it’s Cincinnati.com (never heard of it). That doesn’t mean I don;t think we win big in OH – I do, just not based on that garbage.

    • dizzymissl
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      They have pulled the link from their site.

    • Publius
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      The website is legit( it is the Cincinnati Enquirer) but the numbers were not( they were a template document accidentally posted).
      They have updated the site with the following explanation:
      A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday morning.

      It purported to show early voting totals in Ohio counties. However, no votes have been counted yet – by law counting doesn’t start until the polls close.

      Cincinnati.com regrets the error.

      http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/CINCI/121106009/

  10. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    on fox a judge said the republican officials in PA can go back to polling

  11. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    very good sign

  12. John
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney back below 30 on Intrade (28.5) which is his lowest since before 1st debate. Hee hee hee.

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      lewsers :p

      • MCRICHIE
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink

        i just bet a co worker big $$$ on RR yikes i just this have a gut feeling about PA ?? am i crazy??

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yes a European betting site is where we want to hang our hat on.. laff 😛 Tea Leaf?

      • Molester
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:22 am | Permalink

        There are a lot of dimwits there who don’t even look at early voting statistics. They just go by 538 and place their bets. I have a few grand all on Romney winning various states plus the overall.

    • MCRICHIE
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      so what the O Sooner’S where 13 point fav to beat ND and they lost by 17 it’s called gambling and most of the people betting are from other countries

    • dizzymissl
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      Intrade is very thinly traded–it can be moved with a small bet.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      Bush in 2000 was 28 during the day…he he

  13. live_free290248
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama has Ohio in the bag. This place will be filled with tears later.

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:05 am | Permalink | Reply

      really? hahahah

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      If any of the data coming out right now is accurate, your really out on a limb Live Free.. But never know till its all said and done. If WI falls who cares about OH ? 😛 Lots of unknowns, turnout looking good though, you better pray you have D+4 or higher show up!

      • Edward
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

        I believe my EV numbers in Ohio, just not enough Democrats to win.

    • d.ssims@comcast.net
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      Not hardly dude….Got to get people to vote

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      u lewser

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      You are just like Obama, your messiah. You are filled with hate just like Obama

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Soon Live will be underground like all the rest of the trolls.
      Anyhow, the reason the polls aren’t packed in the Obama precincts….EV Cannibals..

  14. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    romney will carry PA

  15. Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    I live in Pinellas County, Florida which National Review considers to be a bellweather county. It contains Clearwater and St. Petersburg. Went W in 2004. O in 2008. My impression is Romney will win this county easily.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. I am in St. Petersburg, which is the most liberal part of the county, and Romney seems to be doing very well here. He will easily mind the gap in the south part of the county, and should have blowout numbers in the north in places like Oldsmar, Palm Harbor, and Tarpon Springs. The 0bama offices here that has been having half of the volunteers calling other battleground states. Confirmed first hand by my daughters who have been spying on the local 0bama office.

    • Keep the United in the United States of America
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you are so wrong……Pinellas County will vote for Obama and so will I

  16. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    rasmussin has romney double digits with independents again

  17. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t know the exact size need a subscription to find out

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      +15

  18. MCRICHIE
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    i just bet a co worker big $$$ on RR yikes i just this have a gut feeling about PA ?? am i crazy??

  19. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    don’t worry I give romney a 90 % chance of winning

  20. Buckeye Bob
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    Go to Hotair http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/06/romney-up-92k-in-oh-early-voting/. It breaks out some of what several of us posted last night about the early voting in Ohio. It appears to confirm the data we discussed then, along with HotAir’s scoop, that the Ohio polls are way off, and Ohio looks very good for Romney. In a nutshell, the predicted Romney-leaning counties showed increases IN EV while the Democrat-leaning counties showed a decrease in EV. Again, maybe we have misread the data, but I don’t think so–this really looks good for Romney via Ohio. One caveat is that the Repubs cannibalized their voting, i.e., having their high propensity voters vote early which in turn will offset their Election Day advantage. However. I don’t think it would skew the numbers enough to make up for the out of whack skewing the early polling has mistated for the Obama advantage. Some pollsters, maybe alot of them have some explaining to do when this is all over. If novices like use can interpret numbers the Secretary of State posts, why can’t they?

  21. damien
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    52-47-1 I BEEN SAYING IT SINCE BEFORE THIS SITE WAS EVEN UP

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

      52-47 R? Could be, that would be along with the Barone/Morris predictions .. We shall see, would be historic and I love it.

    • Eric
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s been my prediction for a while now too. I could see as low as 3% or as high as 8%.

  22. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    why would any American vote for Obama?

  23. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    romney beat you to it ……you copied him 😀

  24. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama can have his 47%

  25. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am voting for Mitt soon

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent….bring a friend.

  26. Eric
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Look at the internals of that Battleground/Politico poll. It points to a comfortable win for Mitt Romney.

    The top-line number shows Romney up slightly. Look deeper though. There are too many Democrats in that poll. Respondents in the poll said they voted for Obama in 2008 by 10 points!!! He only won by 7! This poll assumes a basically tied race if fewer Republicans/more Democrats vote than in 2008.

    I’m very positive of a Romney win tonight. Not too late to place those bets on Intrade!!!

    • Blackcloud
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      The “who’d you vote for last time” is always affected by so-called winner’s bias. People say they voted for the winner even if they didn’t. Simple as that. You can’t take that as a sign of a bad sample. That’s Polling 101. Ignore that line in any poll you see; it’s meaningless.

  27. Pa John
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen has 77 white turnout. One could only hope he’s right.

  28. Jody
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    I posted this yesterday in one of your comments sections but so many comments you must have missed it!

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for doing that. Sorry I missed it. Stuff just flying by so fast. It took the site about 5 months to get 1 million hits which was about one week ago. We’ll probably go over the 2 million mark tomorrow morning. Just insane.

  29. jeff
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Just heard off the wire thst Romney ahead 92k in ev count in Ohio including Cayahoga. Blowout?

    • Eric
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s just false. Romney would do well to hit 35% in Cuyahoga County.

    • M.White
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Doubt these wire reports but if enough Democrats and Independants cross over that number could be possible.

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink | Reply

      Jeff I am 100 % for Romney / Ryan but that is horsh***

  30. Buckeye Bob
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    Jeff,

    The early Ohio numbers are wrong. The Secretary of State won’t release any voting totals under the rest of the state votes. What is correct though is that the Bush/McCain Ohio counties from 2004/2008 had an overall increase in their EV versus a decreased percentage for Kerry/Obama counties. In other words, while the early voting raw numbers may still favor Obama, it’s been reduced, and will be a smaller hurdle to overcome as long as the Romney voters show up today in Ohio.

  31. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    I mean that in the best way 🙂

  32. hillbilly
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Jeff post the link. I would like to believe it.

  33. DP
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m afraid sandy , the women vote and the lack of debates have ruined it for us.

    • hillbilly
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      Huh?

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        Hillbilly do anything close to that again and you’re gone. If I wasn’t doing this by phone you would be banned.

  34. Big Mac
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    hillbilly is a complete troll.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Is he really a troll?

      • Dan
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:27 am | Permalink

        Keith, did you mean Hillbilly or DP? Confused as I read comments above.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:35 am | Permalink

        Hillbilly. He threw some racism into a comment. Automatic ban in my book but I don’t have access right now.

      • Dan
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink

        ok…unfortunate.

  35. GLENN
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    THE TSUNAMI HAS BEGUN…………. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE AN EARLY CALL FOR ROMNEY!!!!! AS SOON AS THE NUMBERS FROM VA, FL, and PA ARE RELEASED, IT WILL BE GAME, SET, MATCH…….. YOU WILL HEAR THIS BEFORE 10PM EST: “FOXNEWS CAN NOW PROJECT THAT MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”!!!

    • Derek
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      Glenn, I hope you are right! What are the indications that you are referring to?

      • GLENN
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

        Most of the EV for O included his high-propencity voters, which usually vote on ED; however, they were begged by Dems to EV this time to confuse the Polls and make the race appear to be close. The Dems have canibalized their vote!!!

        This is being played out all across the country right now. There are reports of HEAVY lines in the R-leaning areas, and very SMALL lines in D-leaning areas. I witnessed this first-hand about an hour ago. I vote in a “swing” suburban area. In 2008, the lines were a mix of 50/50 white/black voters. This morning, the line was longer than 2008, and it the mix was about 90/10 white/black ratio. The tsumani has started……. The avalanche is here…… God Bless America!!!

  36. Derek
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks Glenn! I am praying for a Romney/Ryan win today! CNN and Fox are both reporting HUGE turnouts. Lines are long….I hope they are voting for Romney!! I know there was alot of discussion stating large turnouts favor Obama. Nervous here I guess. I am in CA and it is definately a blue state although alot of unhappiness for Obama. I just hope the states come through tonight….

    • GLENN
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is actually good news! Huge turnout on Election Day is good for R/R, bad for O/B. R’s vote on ED, D’s prefer to EV. Not sure why that is, but it’s a fact. McCain actually won OH on Election Day in 2008. He only lost because of the huge EV lead that O had.

  37. Mike Brian
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In Colorado it is Jefferson and Arapahoe counties.

  38. Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is the ‘getting in the trenches’ type of data and I love it. I found this site a few days ago and am so grateful it is here. Praying for Romney/Ryan.

    • GLENN
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      CNN and FOX reporting exit interviews showing at least 5% of Dems voting for Romney compared to only 1% of Republicans voting for Obama. This will more than offset the margins in the battleground state polls. IT’S LOOKING VERY VERY VERY GOOD FOR ROMNEY!!! Amen.

      • GLENN
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

        Reagan Democrats coming home!!!! God bless Ronald Reagan.

      • Keep the United in the United States of America
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

        keep praying, but it aint gonna happen

  39. Posted November 6, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Drudge report saying OH and NH won the exit poll. I hope this is wrong!

    http://www.drudgereport.com/

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