Election Night Tips

I’ll update this post over the next 18-24 hours and bump it as needed. Regardless of the outcome, celebrate democracy and the privilege we share. At 7pm on election night in 2008 I opened one of my best bottles of wine, toasted Barack Obama and wished him well in his Presidency. The outcome was obvious beyond an election day miracle and I’m not the biggest fan of deceiving myself. I hope both sides of the aisle will do the same Tuesday night whenever the winner is announced. We are all better off under those circumstances. Tomorrow’s going to be really interesting and a lot of fun. Enjoy the moment, it only comes around every four years.

Below are various tips from myself or others where noted:

  • Beware false stories of unprecedented lines at some precincts and desolate lines at other precincts. They may well all be true but voting patterns shift every election and getting too despondent or overjoyed based on random and possibly inaccurate anecdotes will make you crazy.  Both sides have quite possibly the strongest ground games in election history so anything is possible on election day.  Let it play out.
  • Ignore the “too close to call” game. If the media doesn’t have enough precincts reporting in a Republican state they will say the race is “too close to call.” If they don’t have enough precincts reporting in a Democrat state they will say the polls just closed so it’s too early to say anything. They do this EVERY election.
  • I put this on my Facebook page election night 4 years ago and have left it there.  It’s as true today as it was then and is a good thing to remember no matter the outcome. “A prophet is the one who, when everyone else
    despairs, hopes. And when everyone else hopes, he despairs. You’ll ask me why. It’s because he has mastered the Great Secret: that the Wheel turns.”








154 Comments

  1. Beef
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “I hope both sides of the aisle will do the same Tuesday night whenever the winner is announced.”

    I applaud your noble sentiments, but if Obama wins, I’m burning this MF down.

  2. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What? no gloating? Really, you take all the fun out.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nah… I remember when W won in ’04, I never rubbed in my associates that were Libs.
      Boy, when O won, they were giving me sh*t. Well, after the 2010 lambasting, I gave it to them good….
      After tomorrow, back to humility.

      Except for you Peter..I hope you poke your Turtle head up for at least a moment tomorrow or Wednesday.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

        I remember when Bush won, i had been up 20 hours and didnt finally leave the capitol following hojse races until 6 am, had tk be back by 8 to begin prepping for new member press conference. I was thrilled but just wanted the week over lol

    • Pete
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Unlike trolls, PP seems like a stand up lib. I trust he’ll be back even if Romney wins.

  3. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am going to be celebrating Romney’s victory, but I won’t be waving it in any Democrats’ faces or anything. A lot of my friends are liberal and so I simply won’t put anything on Facebook that I know they will see, for example.
    ~ Brittany

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      EXACTLY! Not rubbing it in will be FAR more effective!

    • Brad
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You’ll use instant messenger w/ your conservative friends instead. 🙂

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      GOD GUYS! GOTV GOTV GOTV we still have to help to get the VOTE OUT!!!!

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

        you sholdnt use the Lords name in vain..just sayin

    • Ron
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:27 am | Permalink | Reply

      Funny thing is–I think most run-of-the-mill Dems don’t mind Mitt.

  4. Kevin
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Election Night Tip for Democrats. Stay away from the window ledges.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LOL. Aww, they had their day in 2008. Hopefully they can give us ours without freaking out.
      ~ Brittany

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        People haven’t mentioned it here too to much but I am legitimately concerned about post-election violence here in Philly…The Panthers are out and will be “Monitoring Polls,” there already is reports of fraud and the city is completely incompetent…just wait I can almost bet polls will be held open later etc. ect. and if Romney wins then…I just don’t know…

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You guys are in for a crash with reality tomorrow. I suspect you will become a chapter in a future book on how people deny reality.

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

        Just like 2010 right?

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        What? Please tell me you know that 2010 results were known months in advance. What is it with GOP and their political myths.

        Heck, Nate Silve was predicting a GOP takeover in June 2010. The only question was how big the final result would be.

      • Brad
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        Maybe so Peter…but we’re very much looking forward to find out just how delusional we are.

      • Kevin
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

        Stop acting like Nate Silver is Mr. Perfect. Just because he got it once, doesn’t mean he’ll do it again. After all, even blind squirrels get lucky enough to find nuts once in awhile.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

        Kevin, forget about Nate Silver. EVERY poll based model has Obama winning. Every one.

        Just look at RCP’s No Toss Up map, Obama is now up to 303

      • Kevin
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

        I’ve seen all the polls that over sample the Democrats by 4 to 11 points. I’m not fooled by their propaganda.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

        Peter, if it is D+5 or greater, BO will win…

        I don’t see it….we will see…

        You stopping by either way?

      • TeaPartyPaul
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

        @PeterPalco you remind me of the ABC Exit Poll that had the Wisconsin Recall at 50-50 two hours before POLLS CLOSED. You, and your ideas/philosophies will go into the ash heap of history. This is why…

        1) Link me to the large amount of stories of McCain voters switching to Obama

        2) If you need me to link you to the THOUSANDS of stories of Obama voters switching to Romney…i will

        Thanks! Come again!

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

        Peter, did you know about 2010 ( 60 + seats )?…and not Nov. 1st, 2010 either.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

        MM, I’ll be here. As for 2010 the exact number was not clear but GOP takeover was the consensus months ahead of the election.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

        And what about all the polls that RCP has not put in their averages? Sorry, but if all the polls are following similar methodology this time (ie. heavy Democratic turnout) and it doesn’t happen then all of them will end up being wrong.

        As for GOP takeover, the thought was it would be a much smaller swing closer to just crossing the threshold needed to take over the House.

      • WillBest
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        Mr. Silver predicted republican gains of 54 seats and that they only had a 25% of clearing 60. He was off by 15%.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

        And what “reality” would that be? As of now I see Romney up in the two most reputable, non-partisan polls. And within the margin of error in Ohio and Pennsylvania. If you told me 3 months ago if Romney could be +1 in Rasmussen and Gallup before election day, I would take it.

      • Ron
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:29 am | Permalink

        There’s reality and then there’s fantasyland–where biased pollsters live.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 5:13 am | Permalink

        Many other non-poll-based model has Romney winning. Polls are not the only inputs. And they shouldn’t be.

      • Mike
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 6:45 am | Permalink

        Keep dreaming……..

    • stephanie
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We purchased red. White and blue balloons to tie on our Romney yard signs, fire works ready to be set as soon as Fox calls Romney as our next president. Our conservative neighbors and liberals neighbors are invited. The liberals neighbors says they wont show up for the fireworks if R wins. Our response? If O wins, you can be sure our property is well protected and no fireworks! Instead, we are ging to have a funeral for the greatest country on the planet.

    • Brad
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter, Gallup poll, just out today doesn’t have Obama winning.

      • Brad
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

        Ah, I see. You’re basing it on state poll models.

      • TeaPartyPaul
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

        @Brad we need to go through the state polls with D+ samples and Romney winning independents. Get your head out of your rear end please…for god sakes.

      • Brad
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

        TeaParty Paul what are you talking about? Dude go have a glass of wine and turn on some smooth Jazz…your freaking out here isn’t helping anyone.

      • WillBest
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

        Gallup has been wrong twice on who the winner was even if they aren’t good at calling the margin of victory.

        Rove who is better at this than Silver called it for Romney.

  5. damien
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    dems states will be called early..repubs called late….i expect a huge mistake…most likely from cnn

  6. cacitizen
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am not sure if I should be extremely depressed or be happy it’s only 24 hours away. I need some words of encouragement here. I’m in CA freaking out looking at how close these polls. I listen to R’s speeches on u tube over and over because they keep me sane.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Polls are not really close. Obama is comfortably ahead.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

        And it will be D+23!! It will be an unprecedented Democratic turnout!! With 100% of Independents going for Obama because he has just been so amazing in his first term! Why oh why did we not listen to you earlier Peter!
        😉
        ~ Brittany

      • cacitizen
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

        Polls are close. Even in CA. Believe me, there are no Obama signs here this year. I know that they are close. But what I’m worried about is the other side cheating and filing lawsuits for no reason because that’s what they always do. If they can’t win legit elections, they steal it by any means necessary.

      • Kevin
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

        You mean like the latest Gallup poll showing Romney up 49/48?

        http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

        Or maybe you were referring to the Public Partisan Polling that is over sampling Democrats to give Obama a lead so they can give themselves a false sense of hope for tomorrow.

      • Prescient11
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

        Peter peter pumpkin eater.

        we shall see. all i see here is you posting bullshit.

        Give me numbers from OH precincts, and then we talk, ok?

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

        Sigh, enough with the lawn signs. Please, that’s irrelevant.

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

        You give all us Peters a bad name. But if you do prove to be right, it will mean that crap small state polls really are accurate when aggregated with better ones. In which case the better polling firms might as well close up shop.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

        Central Limit Theorem!

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

        Peter with a huge D bias….you have to look beyond the topline..and Indies are coming back home

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

        Yes they are so comfortably ahead and so sure of victory that they have spent days in hardcore blue areas, championed early voting that is down majorly from four yrs ago and desperately sending stay calm messages.

        Maybe they win but they sure ferk do act like they are winning

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

        I don’t see and D’s out tonight from team O declaring confidence. Do you, Peter?

        I just saw Reince Priebus and Ed Gillespie. Did anyone see Axelrod and Messina?

        If R thought he lost it, why go to Pittsburgh and Cleveland? For optics? On election day?

        If the polls are right, why is the D EV margin so behind projections in every state, in some cases by 10-15?

        If the polls are right, why did Team O send out a message not to worry about the exit polls today?

        Which team is acting like they won? Team O or Team R? I’m talking about the campaign guys, not TV partisans.

        To quote Barone, fundamentals matter. The fundamentals are against O. Maybe if the election were held 6 months from now, it would be slightly better. But we vote November 6th, so it’s not.

        Hey O. We won.

      • PeterJ
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

        BadPeter,

        It is funny that you should use “central limit theorem” in reply to me, because I actually know what it means. Just like I know why IF all those small state polls are more right than not, that a 50-49 matchup translates into a 70%ish chance of victory. The CLT like any other requires certain conditions, in this case that there exists: 1) a sufficiently large number of data points (i.e. polls here and not just # of responses in polls though it is not irrelevant, but rather that subsequent weightings or not can distort the entire sample), 2) the data points be random and independent.

        It is questionable whether there are a sufficiently large # of polls, and even more questionable whether the majority of those polls are random and independent. If they share the same *wrong* methodology then they tend toward each and continue to do so due to confirmation bias not inspiring them to change that methodology. They are making a lot of assumptions about 2012 looking a lot like 2008 in many ways, despite indicators to the contrary.

        There is necessarily a large degree of uncertainty in any poll methodology and modeling of the collection of same. Which does not mean that Nate’s model is certain to be wrong, but rather that smug overconfident assurance in same predicting the eventual outcome is.

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

        Peter, its clear you enjoy being the focal point of attention, and I respect you sticking to your guns, but honestly you put forth plenty of compelling rebuttals to commentary here and you highlight that we often times are ignoring other not-so-rosy polls, the wealth of models, etc. etc.. What I really don’t understand is how if you take a step back. Look at the time and place we as a nation are at, look at the relatively dismal support Obama is receiving…we all know that the fire that roared in 2008 has smoldered to a low burn. Meanwhile the support Romney is receiving is remarkably strong, especially relative to McCain, but also compared to another data point 2004 and Bush. You profess to want to look wide, at the vast breadth of polls being released by “the establishment” but interestingly you yourself stop at the edge of the polling landscape. Now, granted this IS a poll website but in all honesty, being honest with yourself AND us, would you genuinely believe that Obama would win IF the polls were slid say 5 points the other way. In other words, looking at your understanding of the political landscape, the past as well as all of the anecdotal data, the decreased early voter data, the decline in support evidenced in the unheralded and largely ignored polls in states like Hawaii, California and Rhode Island that tell of an unfolding narrative titled a Double Digit Drop from 2008, would you STILL confidently say that all of us here “will be shocked tomorrow night?” How would you defend that position in light of say a Nate Silver model that predicted a Romney win…I would challenge that absent of the polling the majority would feel far more comfortable in saying that it looks ripe for a Romney win.

        All I’m pointing out is that you make, the RCP makes, Nate S makes, strong cases, but at the end of the day they have a glaring weakness…they aren’t being supported beyond the physical paper they are printed on. They lack an anchor to reality and logic. We can all certainly spin them to sound justifiable…”up Dem sample from +4 to +6 because more people voting BHO due to Hurricane Sandy…” but do you see it anywhere? Physically have you spoken to someone, or groups of people who changed their mind and went from McCain to Obama, and a larger number of them than Obama to Romney? What about the enthusiasm gap that exists…I was wrapping up my senior year at Boston College when Obama won and at the Catholic institution Obama signs and support everywhere…now, not so much, at all, yet Romney rallies and Mittstocks across the nation continue to grow in size while Obama’s shrink and CONTINUE to portray a stark juxtaposition to 2008, in many cases in the same venues. I can go on and on, signage, GOTV evidence, and all that doesn’t delve into the support that he has scarified amongst his varied coalition that got him elected in 2008…

        Maybe you are right PP, (The headline polling certainly suggests that) but at the end of the day I think it is the media and the 35% of Obama supporters who still think its about Hope and Change who are going to be floored….you, you seem intelligent enough, so I believe that you and all of us know that the positions being stated here on Keiths site are a real possibility,…24 hours from now we should have a pretty good idea.

      • Ron
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:38 am | Permalink

        Today was the first day I was certain we’ll win. It was the look on Ann Romney’s face in NH that convinced me–a glow of sheer joy and happiness. Mitt looked tired but content. Like a true perfectionist, he’s leaving nothing to chance. But I’d bet his internals have him up in OH and PA by a considerable margin.

  7. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NH is up in less than two hours. For Dixville Notch and Harts Location. I went out there to Dixville Notch for the ’04 primary night, what a treat.

  8. Matt
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney thinks he won. That’s all I care about

    http://gretawire.foxnewsinsider.com/2012/11/05/latest-from-the-governor-romney-plane-email-from-fncs-carl-cameron/

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s obvious from the way both he and Ann have been acting at rallies that they’ve known for days they were going to win. They are not that good of actors.
      ~ Brittany

      • Tom
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

        Agree with Brittany. They look like President and First Lady.

    • Rick
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not hard to see why. Early and absentee voting is way down for Obama compared with 2008. The Romney campaign must have a magic number in mind that they know that they can beat with the GOTV on Tuesday.

      Also seeing polling of R+2 to R+5 is very encouraging.

      I have always said that if you poll enough Democrats (e.g. D+11 like CNN) you can get Obama to be ahead in the polls.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

        plus they have their own pollster, who is paid to be accurate.
        problem with these public polls is they also serve the needs of who paid for them.

  9. Tom
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Excellent post at Legal Insurrection:

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/11/vote-like-your-country-depended-on-it/

  10. PeterJ
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    As I posted in the last thread:

    I am going to sit down tomorrow night with two bottles of good wine and some snacks. When Romney takes FL I am going to drink the first glass. I’ll skip NC as that would be gratuitous drinking. When he takes VA I’ll drink another glass. I’ll skip NH too if he takes that since there are fewer scenarios where it actually matters. Then if Romney takes PA, I am going to guzzle another glass and immediately pour a second to sip and enjoy slowly. Same if he loses PA but clearly takes OH. Then when he clinches it with WI or IA or CO (really will have been clinched if NH won earlier) I will drink yet another or two and go to bed happily tipsy. If Romney takes VA and loses both PA and OH, I’ll just sober up some waiting and hoping for him to run the table on the remaining battlegrounds or semi-battlegrounds. If he loses VA and OH and PA, then I will unhappily go to bed early and sober. However I fully expect to go to bed tipsy 🙂 .

    I should add that I am going to be watching FOX but keeping MSNBC on the pic-in-pic for gloating.

    BTW, I wonder if any website while reporting on PA, will be keeping a running tally of Philly+4burbs so we can see if RR is making the 36+ sweet spot.

    • Pa John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s the 38 sweet spot

    • Pa John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter. I would put break even at 37.5. 38 just ahead. Bush 2008 36.5 and 2.5 loss. Toomey 38.2 and 2 point win just 2 name 2. I think the coal country issue could add at least a point to RR overall.

  11. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In 2008, Dixville Notch went hard for Obama, 15-6.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Has anyone polled Dixville Notch this year? I imagine they could get a 100% sample with no MOE. Maybe this is where CNN got the D+11?

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

        We’ll know soon enough. They open at midnight.

  12. Flowersfriend
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I will have a bottle of champagne chilled in the event of a Romney victory and a bottle of Pendleton handy in the event of an Obama victory. Either way, I’ll feel better about things.

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hopefully you won’t get a repeat of 2000 or you are going to make yourself sick man!!

  13. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Reince Preibus is on Gretta right now on Fox…he looks like he is about to start jumping up and down!
    ~ Brittany

    • Kevin
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I will give him credit, he has help make Wisconsin more conservative than I can ever remember seeing it. He help Walker fend off the 10 month Union attack of the phoney recall. I’m sure he’s the one that recommended Ryan to Romney, and now Obama has had to campaign in Wisconsin with a few days before the election.

      The Democrat blue wall has a big crack in it.

    • Rick
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He was able to marshal establishment Republicans with tea-partiers to put together a huge GOTV that gave Walker the win in June. I’m sure that was the field-test for the Romney GOTV.

  14. JP
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not sure if anyone has posted this breakdown of cuyahoga numbers yet, encouraging to say the least

    “As of the day before Election Day, Democratic early votes already in are at 89 percent of their ’08 number while Republicans are at 138 percent of their ’08 early vote total.

    So how much of the vote is actually in and how many people will head to the polls? Well, if you were to compare the current Cuyahoga County totals to the actual voter turnout in 2008, Democrats have 37.6 percent of their final vote in ’08, Republicans are at 59.6 percent of theirs and non-partisans are at 26 percent of their vote.”

    http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/In-person-early-voting-numbers-down-from-2008-in-Cuyahoga-County#ixzz2BPQM6EzR

    • Kevin
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The vote total is way, way down this year compared to 2008 for Obama. He won Cuyahoga County 441,836 to 196,369 just four years ago.

      Now Obama is really struggling in Cuyahoga County.

      http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332072/cuyahoga-county-early-vote-slips-behind-2008-pace#

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

        It appears Romney is on pace to cut the vote disadvantage in Cuyahoga down from 245,000 to about 120,000. That’s nearly half of Obama’s margin in 2008 in Ohio.

      • Rick
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

        And that is why the Romney campaign is so darn happy. And why the Obama campaign is worried.

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And yet the O campaign in their “be calm” message to supporters asserts that the reason they have it in the bag is precisely due to early voting. They refuse to see that in so many states they are underperforming 2008 and republicans are overperforming. And Axlerod ignored the math on early OH voting when asked about it and just said we will all see who is “bluffing” come election day.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

        the “dont panic” message is very telling…basically saying that signs will be showing us losing, early

      • JP
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

        On top of a net 50% gain in early voting (-11D + 38 R), Republicans are at 60% of their final 08 tally in early voting alone, considering that only about a third of republicans vote early this is setting them up for a massive increase on election day possibly 200% or more of what they had in 08 in the middle of the democrat stronghold in the state.

  15. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So National Review is sending out the first signals

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332617/romney-s-path-270-robert-costa#

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “We’re doing everything we can, but I don’t see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory,” says a Romney insider. “The president has been hammering us for months,” and the auto bailout is popular.

      • dizzymissl
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

        I wonder if that is the same “insider” that said Chris Christie turned down Romney’s request to do a rally.

        Complete BS

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        Agree. Chicago corruption, this along with them doing their “we’re going to call the race in our favor when we’re really losing our asses.” Really childish.
        ~ Brittany

      • M.White
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

        PLEASE STOP POSTING ANYTHING FROM NRO, I WILL REPEAT THEY ARE NOT TRUE, DIE-HARD CONSERVATIVES, THEY ARE RINOS, IF OBAMA WINS IT KEEPS THEM IN BUSINESS. PLEASE NO MORE NRO OR ANY OTHER BS SO-CALLED CONSERVATIVE WEBSITES, STICK TO BRIETBART, TWITCHY OR DRUDGE REPORT.

      • Ron
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 3:57 am | Permalink

        Why wouldn’t Costa repeat this? It’s what the R camp wants. It wants to rack up the votes in OH and other states, not feed into a sense of having it made.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t panic. http://politicker.com/2012/11/obama-campaign-to-supporters-dont-panic-over-early-exit-polls/

    • Kyle F
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Shane Falco the qb?

      • AJ
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

        footsteps falco?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tricks. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/chicago-source-tells-author-brad-thor-obama-campaign-planning-to-proclaim-early-victory-to-demoralize-romney-supporters/

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t read that article the same way.

  16. housebroken dad
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Do I have permission to take Peter Palco’s name on this board tomorrow night because I have a feeling he will be a no show.

  17. rcl_in_va
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, thanks for all your hard work under what I’m sure has been extremely trying personal circumstances. Your blog added another page to our evolving American story, however it plays out, and I for one very much appreciate your efforts.

  18. Kevin
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith,

    Will you have an open thread tomorrow night?

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tell me when you want it?

      • Kevin
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

        How about 6pm Eastern time, I think that’s when some of the polls start to close in the Eastern Time Zone, but then again, I might be wrong on that.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

        polls close at 7pm. I think Indiana finally switched

      • Kevin
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

        Ok, 7pm Central for an open post would work. Thanks, I look forward to it.

      • Rick
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

        My thoughts exactly. Excellent idea.

  19. Mick
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A wise man said, “Win or Lose, we booze”

  20. mchlgregg
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This just in: Nate Silver just Politico just tweeted this:

    @DylanByers
    Nate Silver breaks 92% for Obama http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/nate-silver-breaks-for-obama-148569.html#.UJiD2QJmxbE.twitter … via @POLITICO

    Wow, they’ll do anything to win! Shocking huh?

    GO MITT!

  21. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This Springsteen Forward song is bizzare.

  22. Zee45
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think people on this site are getting a bit too over confident.. Don’t forget the electorate has changed and have more minorities voting.
    The polls have Obama leading, yet he is still under 50 in most polls.. No one can say for sure what will happen,,,

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Actually chances are we’ll see a slightly lower minority turnout. I expect whites to comprise about 75% of the electorate and it appears Obama may not be able to hit 35% with them. That would mean with 90% minority support, Obama would be incapable of hitting 49%.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:56 am | Permalink

        may be fewer black but there wil be more latinos.

        probably won’t hurt too much except in NM and NV, a little in FL.

  23. M.White
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just listened to AB Stoddard on Greta, who is no conservative, she call things right down the middle most of the time, sometimes she leans a little left, but she said she believes Romney wins, either by a little or by a landslide. I listen to her because she is not on side or the other and she knows politics well, her family is well connected and she a great reporter.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I saw her too just now. Really awesome.
      ~ Brittany

      • M.White
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

        She also thinks Wisconsin goes to Romney because of the Republican ground game!

    • Hestrold
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Me too. It’s a night for wild emotions and nothing to do really but speculate.

  24. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Statistical Analysis: Cuyahoga Early Vote Numbers Show Romney Cutting Obama Lead in ENTIRE STATE by 26%

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/05/statistical-analysis-cuyahoga-early-vote-numbers-show-romney-cutting-obama-lead-in-entire-state-by-26/

    • JP
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I was predicting a modest 285 votes for romney, now it’s looking like Barone/Morris were right. Incredible

  25. O'BuhBye
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve been chewing twice as much Nicorette over the last month. I think I will get me a tin of Kodiak, a six pack, and some champagne for when RR wins.

  26. Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So excited for tomorrow… But incredibly nervous. I know the bulk of the polls showing Obama in the lead are flawed an Republican turnout will be big. Still, sort of hard to imagine Obama losing.

    • Piglet
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As I believe Winston Churchill said, we cannot guarantee victory, we can only deserve it. GL all.

  27. Guest
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ignore the trolls and the polls, just remember to vote for Romney-Ryan and the Republican Team!

  28. Jack Rose
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I really, REALLY believe the Republican turnout will be HUGE tomorrow. 300+ electoral votes for Romney.

  29. Kardinal11
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Final prediction is Romney flips….Wisconsin to get over the hump. I don’t see the blow out scenario and I think Ohio will be TCTC and likely stolen by the Dem lawyers. But it won’t matter. The machine in place from Walkers race will carry the day. Va Fl Nc and Co all flip back as well. Wisonsin saves the country tomorrow.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree that the shady Chicago lawyers are already planning something illegal for them to try and get Ohio illegally. BUT, Romney will win regardless of Ohio so it won’t matter.
      ~ Brittany

      • Jack Rose
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

        If Obama wins Ohio (which he won’t but for the sake of argument), Romney will need WI, IA and CO to get to 273…all of which are very doable.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

        Oh I agree, Romney will win Ohio. It will just be nice that he will get so many other swing states that Ohio isn’t contested because he’ll still be winner even if you throw Ohio out.
        ~ Brittany

    • PeterJ
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you read Bob Krumm’s 5 scenarios posts along with his own prediction, there is 1 each way that is excruciatingly close, i.e. 271-267. I’d be happy to have RR win by an inch, but I would rather they lose by a mile. Obama losing by an inch shows the trash methodology of Nate’s model. But it takes RR losing by a mile to show the same on our part. I would rather it be clear either way re election analysis.

  30. allthingsgeography1
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’ll be a fascinating election night. I look forward to blogging and doing analysis and tracking things on this blog as well. One thing about this election is the uncertainty. Who will win? How strongly will the victor’s win be? Will turnout really be the same as 2008? Or will we be swimming in Republicans with R+6 turnout? Is the 269-269 mess a possibility? Are the polls really full of crap or not? So many uncertainties and questions We’ll know in 24hrs. I’ll vote, do some studies, then be in election mode all evening and night. It’ll be fun.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey Fascinating thats my line! I agree with you though 😛 Fascinating it will be!

  31. Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well, I’m looking to volunteer as a poll watcher at Oregon City, my capital seat. There is some funny business expected, and I already mailed in our mail-in ballot last week. I hope everyone has a great election day, and let’s hope it all goes well. 🙂

  32. David
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regarding the original topic (“Election Night Tips”), whether lines at the polls are long or short isn’t simply a function of turnout. The time required to cast a ballot, turnout, and the number of voting booths at the poll are all big factors. In some places where there are numerous confusing issues on the ballot, voters take significantly longer to vote, and that can cause long lines even if turnout is modest, if there aren’t enough booths.

  33. Rick
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On the day of the Walker recall in June, I felt that it was hopeless because of the media reported polling. The polls were wrong and Walker won in a landslide with record R turnout. About $100M was poured into that race, much of it by the unions. That was still not enough to top the GOP GOTV effort. Tomorrow may bring a big surprise like Wisconsin in June.

    • trux
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Every poll had Scott Walker leading. Every single one.

      We have got to kill this myth somehow….

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink

        If the polls had Walker leading by three and he wins by seven were they wrong?

        if the polls have Obama leading by two and he loses by two, (popular vote) were they wrong?

        Same size miss.

      • Marshmallow Candidate
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink

        There were stories then that discussed how it was a “dead heat.” Misleading headlines?

      • Keith W
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink

        Correct, but what I think he’s referring to are the exit polls. The exit polls were pointed to a Barrett win, which is why they got so giddy on MSNBC.

      • Jody
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink

        I remember Wolf Blitzer on CNN the night of the Wisconson recall election – “polls show it’s too close to call”. Lots & lots & lots of “too close to call”s on CNN until finally a good chunk of the results were actually reported and then they stopped saying “too close to call”.

    • TMarc
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      If you look at the RCP avg, one poll had walker up big prior to the election, the others were off 2-3 pts in favor of barrett.

  34. Zee45
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Question…
    The early ballots totals that have come in on early voting in the swing states, does that include also absentee ballots?

  35. David
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    Dixville Notch, NH presidential result is the first tie they have ever had, Romney 5, Obama 5! This is a big swing toward Romney from 2008 in Dixville Notch.

    • trux
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:09 am | Permalink | Reply

      It is…Romney got zero votes in Dixville Notch last time.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      They should be calling it for Romney any time now.

  36. Josh Roberts
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen projects the final partisan breakdown for this election as D+2 (D 39, R 37). Good news or bad? I was hoping for D+0 or R+1.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      D+2 is a Romney win. But they just don’t know.. They have the Party ID at R+1.. They cant predict turnout today, this is why D+2 and R+5 Party ID.. Turnout is the key, if the R’s turnout like 04, its game over, if the D’s turn out like 08 its Obama’s re-election. Obama has to hope for a D+4 turnout MINIMUM to overcome the bleeding in EV’s.. We shall see!

      • Dan
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink

        I forget whom (josh Jordan maybe) but someone made the point that the 08 Dem turnout was within historic norms. It was that the GOP turnout was depressed. So what happens if they are both high? seems like that is where you could get the D+2.

      • CAChris
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink

        I think D+2 is safe for pollsters.. But based on EV’s and history Dems would have to re-write election day turnout history and R’s will just have to turn out as they normally do on most years not 08. We shall see! Fascinating!

    • John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rasmussen 6 Nov “Romney has a double-digit advantage among unaffiliated voters”. Therefore, even if it is a D+2 election and all the Dems vote for Obama (no way that happens) Romney wins handily because of the big indy advantage. The indys swung back to Romney over the weekend after being fooled by Obama’s Sandy photo-op middle of last week.

    • NMVM
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      His final crosstabs are D+4. See my comment below. Sorry, can’t post a link to the crosstabs because it’s platinum only

  37. housebroken dad
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    Wow. Just now watching the Manchester, NH rally from last night. I’m crying. Literally crying. Goosebumps. Amazing stuff.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

      Get out the VOTE! 🙂

  38. exe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Anyone see any Orca reps out there? I didn’t at my polling place, but my father said he saw 3 people with smart phones checking off names, and they were not identified as officials. This is in Bucks County PA.

  39. Matt
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    Nothing definitive at all, but the DowJones is up fairly big. Which makes me think they’re expecting a pro-business president.

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 11:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      That’s the best indicator I have seen in a while.

  40. NMVM
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    *posted on the Ohio early vote thread, but wanted to repost here as well – I think I may have found something fairly significant with Rasmussen’s data these past few months*

    Rasmussen has his full cross tabs out and his RDI split is 36/40/24 for LVs. At the end of July he had 34/34/31.

    Now compare to his all adults RDI breakdown.
    October (latest): 39/33/27
    July: 35/34/31

    So the adult population moves from R+1 to R+6, but the LV sample moves from even to D+4. Wow, that Democrat enthusiasm gap REALLY widened. I know what happened, the debate performances followed by strong campaigning by Romney must have energized adults to identify themselves as Republicans and declare that they weren’t going to vote. Seriously though, going from all adults to LVs typically helps Republicans 0-3 points (0=2008, 1.5=2004, 3=2010), see the pattern here? Giving Dems a 10 point advantage when going from adults to LVs is absurd.

    Guys, I don’t know which way this election is going to break. Never count out a desperate democrat and his creepy cult of personality. But I can tell you this, polling is officially broken. Rasmussen normally doesn’t mind going out on a limb, but he is so afraid of being the outlier when all the final polls are judged by the Nate Silvers of the world for “house effect” and “Republican bias” that he is COOKING HIS NUMBERS BEFORE OUR EYES. If he is doing this, what is everyone else doing? The cottage industry of political polling is teetering on the edge of self-immolation, and they know it. The best they can do is throw up their hands and say “Too close! Probably Obama! See you guys later!” before they run for cover with their tails between their legs.

    Oh, and in case you’re wondering:
    End of July (D+0): R48 O44 (4 other, 4 undecided)
    Final poll (D+4): R49 O48 (2 other, 1 undecided)

    Hmm…

  41. Posted November 6, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Though Missouru isn’t contested. I will offer this. I live in he northern (slightyst east) Kansas City. More of a conservative democrat type people here. Lots of middle to upper middle class folks. They are the type to support local democrats, legislative republicans, statewide democrats and total toss-up national.

    That said this is my 4th election since we bought our house. We use optical scan so when you slide it in you can see what number you are. I always vote between 830-9 am every election.

    2008: (WAVE OBAMA): my ballot was the 114th scanned in
    2010: (Republican legislative win): my ballot was the 86th scanned in
    2012: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: my ballot was the 46th scanned in.
    2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: This morning my ballot was the 477th ballot scanned in as of 9 am.

    First time I have ever waited in line to vote (I have lived in two states, six different cities and have voted since i turned 18 2 weeks after 1994 election). The place was swamped. Polce officer directing traffic, parking was a pretty long walk, small line to get in, small line to get ballot, moderate line to get a place to fill it out. They had 18 “booths”, 1 electronic machine for handicapped…NEVER have they been full. Every booth was full, 6 6 foot tables were brought out and people crowded around, people on the stage in the room, at a podium, up against a wall all filling out ballots,

    One side or the other or both this is going to be a MONSTER turnout.

  42. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Forgot to say, earlier they think they might have to go to provisional ballots.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In Ohio

  43. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN Projects Georgia for RR

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