Election Day Report from Colorado — David Ramos

Below is the election day report from reader David Ramos who has been tracking early voting for Battlewatch.com:
On the ground
The weather is beautiful, temps around 70.Wait times are not extraordinarily long despite an early report from KMGH 7 (ABC) in Denver saying the lines had wait times of an hour or more. With a very short ballot here in the state, it takes less than 5-7 minutes. If your read everything, of course, it’ll take 45 minutes or longer. If you bring a cheat sheet of how you’re going to vote, less than 3 minutes. The other Denver stations did not report any waiting problems.Yesterday, the Secretary of State’s office checked out those voting machines recording an Obama vote, in Pueblo county (strong Dem) when the Romney button was pushed. It was determined those touch-screen machines were set to the most sensitive setting. That said, when the Obama button was pressed, the vote was recorded as Obama. Call it curious.
The numbers
The Secretary of State’s office finally put in the clarification that vote totals include in-person early voting, received mail-in ballots, and received absentee ballots, which makes better sense numerically speaking. As of this morning’s report, 1,909,969 votes have been cast. This would leave around 800,000 people casting votes today in their precincts. The total number of active voters is roughly 2.7 million. Another 912,000 voters are classified as inactive. Inactive voters include those that some sort of problem with their registration, primarily address. If an inactive voter showed up to vote, they would have to vote provisional. Whether it would be included in the final tally would be at the discretion of the county election official. The D/R split in the this morning’s report is R+2.6. The D/R split with all parties is R+1.8.
Battleground counties
Arapahoe County
Has tightened up considerably over the weekend as more mail-in and absentee ballots have been received. The Republicans have a 390 ballot lead over the Democrats. This county will be decided by the unaffiliateds (independents). In the morning report, 62,936 unaffiliated ballots were received. What may tip the election is that many people living in this county have mortgages that are underwater. Also, it was the epicenter of bank foreclosures and bankruptcies in 2009-10, before easing last year. However, the foreclosure rate is starting to pick up.
Jefferson County
The lead has held, slightly increasing to 6,639 more Republican ballots than Democrat. The big race, however, is for CD 6. The Democrats have made a serious run for this seat and it’s considered by RCP as a toss-up. It’s likely to be held by Republican incumbent Mike Coffman, who is quite popular in the Denver Metro area.
Stronghold counties
Denver-Adams-Boulder-Pueblo
The Democrats are holding their large lead in Denver County by a 76-24 margin. In Boulder County, the Democrats appeared to have woken up and has provided an equally impressive 70-30 margin. In Pueblo County, the Democrats have established a comfortable 65-35 margin. It appears they are performing as expected. The lone standout is Adams County, it appears the Republicans have made an effort to mind the gap where the Democrats have a 57-43 margin. Adams County has been solid blue as Denver in previous election cycles.
El Paso-Mesa-Douglas-Weld
Similarly, the Republicans are holding fast in their strongholds. In El Paso County, the Republicans hold a 68-32 margin. In Douglas County, a 71-29 margin. In Mesa County, it is a 69-31 margin. And, in Weld County, it is a 62-38 margin. In the rural counties, The Republicans hold a sizeable lead over the Democrats in the rural counties, at least a 60-40 margin.
Key to victory
The key are firmly held in the hands of the unaffiliated voters. If they split according to the county they live in, the split would 51-49 in favor of the Republicans. Public Policy Polling has claimed the Obama campaign holds a 6-point lead among the independents, thus giving him the upper hand coming into election day. The 6-point lead is very similar to the advantage Obama held in 2008. If Obama is holding a 6-point lead, why he is down 35K votes at the start of the day. For Romney to win, it comes down to today’s GOTV effort and how well Romney connected with the independent voters here. If the rallies are any indication, he may be in good shape. The same can be said for Obama.
Hope you have a good evening.
— David Ramos

90 Comments

  1. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Was Obama +1 last time. 30% of Va was indies in 2008. That’s a 4.3% swing to Romney all by itself. Obama won by 6.3%.

      Now need D+6 (2008) to go to D+3 this time.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

        Virginia was R+4 in 2004, however.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So we’re trusting exit polls now?

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

        More like speculating, I suppose.

  2. Jeni
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anyone else have a little mini-crash with the site?

    • Ranger375
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yes

      • Jeni
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

        Thought I was going to lose my mind if I couldn’t get back here. Addiction is full-blown!

    • nvClark
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wonder if it’s related to the ads. They’re gone now.

  3. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Virginia Independents Break For Romney By 12 Points, 53-41

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/06/virginia-independents-break-for-romney-by-12-points-53-41/

  4. nvClark
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I thought I was crazy or something, yes definitely. Can’t find several comment threads.

  5. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      BOOM! The thing about Iowa is that it doesn’t vary that much across the state. When one part moves, so does another. BOOM BOOM BOOM!

  6. live_free290248
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It is going to be a long night for Republicans.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      For both parties… 🙂

    • NAVYBLUE
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, PARTYING !!!!

      NAVYBLUE

  7. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The backup to the backup (losing both OH and VA) is for Romney to take PA, IA, and CO for 270 EV’s (alongside FL, NC).

  8. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Fox exit poll of VA independents shows Romney leading by 12 points, 53% to O’s 41%”

    Don’t see that reflected in the exits.

    Man, gonna be some night.

    Oh, yeah, CNN doing it again, showing Romney down 10% in Florida before the polls close in the panhandle.

    CNN has Obama doing better than 2008 in Orlando.

  9. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

  10. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That Viga county bellwether in Indiana is 49/49.

  11. live_free290248
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not will Romney lose VA, he will also lose FL. You think am kidding.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      FL? hahaha now your reaching.. 🙂

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

        You will find out soon.

    • margaret
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      497 Karl Rove ‏@KarlRove
      RT @JebBush: Great numbers in Pasco and Volusia counties in fl for Romney. I predict he wins!

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is this “libfreeordie” from HotAir? Please get lost.

  12. M.White
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    THIS FROM DRUDGE REPORT
    ENOUGH! LET’S COUNT!
    R 52% O 47%
    This is on top of his page…does he know something???

    • NAVYBLUE
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh yes he DOES !!!!!! He is VERY connected as in “ORCA Project” !!!!

      Hang in there

      NAVYBLUE

      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

        Make that R 53% O 46 % !!!

        Hang in there !!!

        NAVYBLUE

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just that that is where the vote is at the moment. Not a prediction.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Now
      R 54% O 45%

  13. JW
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On fox they are saying turnout was like 2008 in Ohio dem counties today

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All that matters Is D+??? and Crossovers + Indies.. This is awesome! What a race!

      • JW
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

        Are we thinking we are good in Ohio?

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is conflicting with that Morris is saying

      • JW
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

        Barone is now saying R is doing about the same as bush 04 in florida

    • Jeni
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      But early voting advantage was diminished.

  14. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney now up in FL. At 65% Mack is at 57% Lotsa crossover.

  15. live_free290248
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New Hampshire is all ready gone. Obama wins it.

    • margaret
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Like FL (which is still voting) and VA?

    • JGS
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I love the smell of troll in the morning.

    • dizzymissl
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Why?

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have to say, CNN showed a polling place in Nashua for people trying to register/vote for the first time – a lot of kids in line.

  16. JGS
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You folks may like this post from Jim Geraghty as well:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332798/how-much-will-cuyahogas-vote-drop-2008

  17. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keep in mind urban precincts tend to report last due to shear size. Don’t read too much into early results.

    • Pa John
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Usually other way around. Rural counties sometimes have to drive 30-40 miles to the county seat to hand in their votes. Many of them dont use electronic machines.

  18. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Re: CO, if PPP says in a poll that something like Independent support is Obama + 6 that likely means it’s Romney + 4. Seriously. I’ve nitpicked a lot of polls over the decades and I can honestly say I’ve never seen anything like PPP. Some of their polls are so obviously wrong it verges on parody. Women at 54% of the sample in states where the male-female split is 50-50. Democrats substantially outnumbering their turnout from ’08. Far more Republican support for Obama this year when compared to GOP crossover votes in ’08. It boggles the mind how brazen and blatant they were about trying to push their agenda.

    In any event, in CO there are more R’s who’ll vote than D’s. Last time around there were ~2x the GOP crossovers than D crossovers. But this year at worst for Romney it’ll be a wash and more likely a material net gain. That’s not really even debatable. In ’08 the I’s went for Obama 54-44. This time around that margin could very well be reversed. If Romney wins the I vote in CO he’ll win that state. Difficult to envision Romney not winning the I vote in CO.

  19. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Candy Crowley at Romney HQ says still feeling good about things. Obama camp likes what they are seeing.

    Dems like the turnout in Cayahoga (Cleveland).

    • rochierich
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Stopping with the candy Crawley

  20. housebroken dad
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like early votes being disclosed in FL because polls haven’t closed yet

  21. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Lots of Drip drip drip data coming in, not a whole lot to see yet.. Wow fascinating!

  22. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dems +9 in ohio on CNN exits.

    Yikes.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And Kerry was up 14 in exits and lost… Ignore EXITS.. Who knows where they are getting them from.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RR dead in the water if true but consider the source.

  23. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Right now slight sense that Repubican turnout excellent but Dem turnout not as flat as hoped. Just my sense of things.

  24. Greg
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    W. Virginia called for Romney

  25. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    49/49 in North Carlina exits. CNN

    51/48 for Romney in Ohio exits – just wow.

  26. Evan3457
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks bad for Mourdock in IN; running 11% behind Romney so far. I think that’s too big a gap to make.

  27. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
    Exit Poll: Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 3% in swing state Ohio. #election2012

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      lol SKYNews.. Wow, folks your doing a ton of Exit poll posting and they are 90% wrong…

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just another day at the polls…. well, at least the Ohio counting can now begin.

  28. Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    92% Vigo County Indiana. O-50 R-48. Not good.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Stop with the superstitions stuff lol.. Its a historic turnout, all that doesn’t matter.

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

        Sorry CAChris but they are bellwether for a reson as they reflect general population attitutdes at the time. Much like Ohio. But you’re right I am superstitious.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      UPDATE: 99% in in Vigo County Indiana. O – 18,272 R – 18,119. This is the county that has voted every winner since 1956. If this county is that close we are in for LONG night.

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

        Or, Obama is the trifecta of President Stevenson and President Bryan.

  29. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Other than Vigo, there is still not a single tangible number for the 106 battleground counties at greater than 1% but stay tuned.

  30. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    99% of precincts reporting in bellwether Vigo County, Indiana: Obama 49.3%, Romney 48.8%

  31. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Barack Obama I 50% 16,459
    Mitt Romney 48% 15,758
    Gary Johnson 2% 638

    Combined, Romney and Johnson make it tied.

  32. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Come on. Vigo is close enough to say that, it depends….

  33. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Look, I’m trying to keep it real.

    My thought was Romney had to win pretty easily in VA to win Ohio.

    Clearly that doesn’t appear to happening.

    The vote is mostly in – what I say or think doesn’t matter.

    It’s just not been as easy as it needs to be for Romney in states he needs to win.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      3% in let the results come before doom and gloom.. This is like 04.. There was wild numbers all night.. Its going to be a late night, barnburner.. Hang in there.

    • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ohio and Virginia seemed to flip as close states in the end so I don’t close Virginia as necessarily bad for Ohio.

  34. CAChris
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t think many people expected an early night! Lets get those counts in and see!

  35. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Henrico county VA – real numbers, voting in Henrico county is verysimlar to 2008

  36. No Tribe
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ‎99% of votes counted in Terre Haute, IN/ Vigo County Obama 18,272/ Romney 18,119

    Johnson’s votes more than make up the difference, coming in at 700+

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mitt Romney 49% 18,119
      Barack Obama I 49% 18,272
      Gary Johnson 2% 705

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

        Does Johnson take from Reps or Dems?

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

        All you can take away from Vigo is that it’s tied at 49%

      • Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

        Libertarians will tend to vote more Rep than Dem.

  37. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN Obama campaign says they will carry PA.

  38. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nashua NH people still coming in to register to vote.

  39. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN FLA Dems +3 Exits

  40. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN projects CT, DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, ME (3 of them) and RI for Obama no surprise

  41. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK for Romney. A olt of easy red states not projeted yet. PA, NH are no closed

  42. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN FLA 50-49 Obama PA 52-47 exits

  43. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CNN Obama campaign confident about the electoral vote, a little concerned about the popular vote. No real update or new insight form Romney camp.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: