Romney +2 in Virginia — Rasmussen

In a state that I though would be a knife fight into election day, Virginia remains very close with Rasmussen showing a 2-point lead for Romney 50 to 48. It’s likely that Romney has opened a significant enough lead to call this state earlier in the evening tomorrow than I would have thought a few months back but people still have to show up and you never know the results so don’t get cocky:

Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This is unchanged from two weeks ago and the week before that when it was Romney 50%, Obama 47%. Virginia which is critical to Romney’s fortunes in the election remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections as it has been in surveys for months.  Polls close in Virginia tomorrow at 7 pm Eastern. The results from the state will be an early indicator of how the election is going: If Romney loses Virginia, he is unlikely to win the election.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of the state’s voters say they have made up their minds how they will vote, and the race is 50%-50% among these voters. Romney has the support of 90% of Virginia Republicans and leads 58% to 37% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. The president has 93% backing from the state’s Democrats. Virginia voters trust Romney more when it comes to handling the economy by a 51% to 45% margin. The challenger leads the president by two points – 49% to 47% – in terms of voter trust when it comes to national security and energy policy. These numbers are essentially unchanged from two weeks ago.

While the economy remains the number one issue on voters’ minds as they go to the polls,  neither candidate has convinced voters in the state that he is clearly the better alternative.  Forty-six percent (46%) think the economy will get better if Romney is elected and Republicans take over Congress, but only slightly fewer (40%) say the same is true if Obama is reelected and Democrats take charge of Congress.  Thirty-eight percent (38%) expect the economy to get worse if Romney wins, compared to 43% who predict a worsening economy if the president wins. This, too, has changed little. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on November 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 50
Other 1
Undecided 1

51 Comments

  1. Neil in NC
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hey Keith

    Do you know if Ras is still D+1?

    N

    • Mike
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 4:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      He is still D+2 at least…..

  2. Neil in NC
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink | Reply

    How are things going in your part of NYC?

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t know know Ras’s party IDs. I should have subscribed but didn’t. My section of NYC is all good. It’s just the Verizon landline networks got flooded and screwed up everyone’s home service today (hooray Coffee Bean!). Compared to too many New Yorkers I had the easiest situation of most refugees since the hurricane. I had great hosts in midtown and I live in an area that tends to get priority when something needs to be fixed etc #firstworldproblems

      Thanks for asking.

      • Neil in NC
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:32 am | Permalink

        You’re welcome. I’ve heard the “Marines have Landed” in Staten Island. What a wreck.

        Thanks again.

  3. Publius
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    The chart is backwards…it should read Romney 50, Obama 48.

  4. NMVM
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting thing going on with Rasmussen’s party ID. This poll has RDI split of 36/38/25 (D+2). Previous poll had the same topline but an RDI split of 39/37/24 (R+2). The poll before that had R50 O47 with an RDI split of 34/32/33 (still R+2, way more indies than the subsequent polls).

    I’m kind of at a loss trying to figure out how Ras is coming up with these party IDs on the state and national level. He is actively weighting to them, so where do the weights come from?

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      Keeping it close while still calling the winner.

    • HeelinRVA
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

      Someone may correct me on this, but I’m pretty sure Ras doesn’t weight polls based on party ID. He just applies his likely voter screen to the sample and reports the DRI like many other polling organizations.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Pretty sure he doesn’t weight to party ID just to demographics. No one weights to party ID by express design.

  5. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Good question.

    Reps are likely way ahead of Dems in VA vs. 2008 in EV.

  6. Adam
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, you’ve got the numbers mixed on the table – trying to give me a heart attack?!?!

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      Just making sure everyone is awake today 🙂 Thanks for pointing that out

  7. Publius
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    The other thing that is weird about this poll is that it has Obama getting a higher percentage of Democrats than Romney is pulling from Republicans. On the plus side, Romney leads among independents by 21 points!

    I live here in Richmond, and I sense that the state is going to go for Romney by between 3-5%

  8. novahockey
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m working the polls in NoVA for a few hours tomorrow morning before work. i’m in a blue part, but I got this.

    • Publius
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      In my travels up to NOVA, the amount of signage for R/R has been impressive. I really think that Romney will keep the margin down enough in NOVA to win the state.

  9. CAChris
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Keith in your graphic you have Obama 50 Romney 48, shouldn’t it be the other way around for this poll?

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      Nm looks like you fixed it 😛

  10. valleyforge
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney’s winning independents by 21 points and even Ras has him up only 2?

    I think Gillespie said just yesterday re another poll that if Romney wins independents by 20 points he guarantees he wins the state.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      There must be a McCain voters for Obama constituency that never makes a peep but always answers the pollsters call 🙂

  11. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    interesting to see the backdrop of crowds (?) at obama’s rallies — young people and blacks…those are his base. (and i am not sure if the turnout is due to some celeb like stevie wonder or katy perry)…

    victory =
    (Republican #)(% for Romney) + (Independent #)(% for Romney) – (Democrat #)(%for Obama) + (Independent #)(% for Obama) > 0.*

    *OHIO + (CO u IA u WI u NH), or
    *PA + ME-2, or
    *CO+IA+WI, or
    *CO+IA+NH+ME-2

    is this correct?

    • John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      You left out the cross-over vote which in your equation would be (Democrat#)(% for Romney) on the left side of minus sign and (Republican#)(% for Obama) after the minus sign. Most likely the cross-over vote favors Romney with a number of disenchanted Dems

      • wholefoodsrepublican
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

        yes — i didnt include it, assuming, in worse case scenario, that it would be a wash

    • O'Buhbye
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      I would like to see a few more minorities on our side, even one. All white at the Romney events–not good.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:02 am | Permalink

        Strange, not at any of the rallies I’ve been to here in CO. They had several hispanics holding “DEMOCRATS FOR ROMNEY” signs at the Englewood, CO event on Saturday.
        ~ Brittany

      • tyroneshoelaces
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

        As an ethnic minority living in Northern VA…I can confidently say that there’s at least one. Had planned to make it to the R/R event here that was cancelled b/c of Sandy. So there.

  12. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    Someone said in another thread that Ann Compton ABC News said Obama has given up on Virginia.

    Would love to have heard that – I guess it was a radio spot.

    • Dave
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      My jaw would drop to the floor if they said that on abc news television broadcast.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:39 am | Permalink

        I was the one that posted teh Ann Compton quote on the other thread. She said they had given up on FL, NC and VA – and that they were “holding on” – hoping to win OH, WI and IA. She said that Bamster and crew knew they needed all three or they were toast. AND – you could hear the trepidation in her voice. I almost crashed the car.

  13. Bunker It Up
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hi from Hurricane Sandy Ground Zero in New Jersey Still without power for a week but now we have power at work. I am getting by on firewood and a generator that is a gas hog and requires Mad max scrounging to find fuel. Query- since I have been off line for a week- any thoughts briefly on Iowa , Wisconsin , New Hampshire and Minnesota?

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink | Reply

      Good luck bunker.

      Synopsis is Iowa is more likely than Wisconsin which is more likely than Minnesota, but all are possible – I think the reps are feeling good about iowa for sure.

      New Hampshire I think people don’t really know.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      Iowa, looks very good, but it’s a real nail biter.

      New Hampshire. Romney is still ahead with Independents. If that sticks he will win. Something happened in the Gov race to break it wide open to the Dem.

      Wisconsin. Lots of conflicting models. Same with MN. Even odds on WI still.

  14. JGS
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Is there unashamed skewing going on even at the University of New Hampshire? Here is a poll released this morning showing Obama +3 (51-48 with leaners) in NH, but when you get into the bowels of the PDF, you see that it is party ID of D 44.7, and R 38.2, so this survey is D +6.5. Their prior survey just last week was D+2 and showed Romney and Obama tied at 47-47. 2008 was D+2, and 2004 was R+7. What is going on here?

    http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_election110412.pdf

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      That looks wrong. Indies outnumber both Dems and Reps in NH. D-45 is doubtful

    • JGS
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      Raw numbers of poll respondents designated as likely voters in the Presidential race break down as:

      D 348
      R 298
      I 133

      Out of 779 total respondents when you add up the three, 348 are D which works out to 44.7% (did the math myself, long-hand like I was in 4th grade). 298 out of 779 works out to 38.2%. And that leaves independents at 133 out of 779 which is about 17%. This may be after the pollster “leaned” the independents, however. Not 100% sure about that.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:24 am | Permalink | Reply

      Romney kept the huge bounce among the Indies in NH. If that sticks, he will win the state. 22% and 14% winning among Indy’s in their last two polls. Everything else doesn’t matter if this holds.

  15. Ranger375
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    After a long discussion with my horse this morning — which is akin to talking to some of the Obama supporters I have spoken with…which is under hard questioning I see this far away look followed by the swatting of flies and some snorting.

    My thoughts are that this election has already and will continue to change some long held beliefs.

    One is that “debates don’t prove to change the race”. Well that one is gone. The first debate threw that assumption into the trash bin of history.

    The second thing that will change is the way polls are viewed. Seems to me someone is going to be very wrong and someone is going to be very right. Once this comes out there are going to be some hard questions. Not that this may change anything but there is going to be a loss of creditability somewhere.

    Just some thoughts of mine on all this confusion.

  16. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    If Obama wins, I don’t see a whole lot of people being “very wrong.”

    That’s the scariest part about being where we are – as bks and Peter keep saying, how can they all be wrong?

    I think they are, but we won’t know until tomorrow night.

    • JGS
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      Watch Fox News, don’t listen to the networks’ and CNN’s and MSNBC’s “early calls” for Obama (they will be designed to retard R voting in CO and NV), and be happy. You have spent time on this blog to learn something other than Peter Palco’s and bks’ obsession with the top line results and the “Nate Silver can’t be wrong, they all can’t be wrong” meme.

  17. me
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    i think the real problem Bob is that IF Obama narrowly wins, like taking OH, all the people wrongly looking at top lines only and polling aggregates blindly on RCP or 538 will assume they were right in ALL their claims, against the real story, aided by depression in GOP turnout when in a close race enough of the Republican side believes the spin that Obama has a 85.5% chance to win, etc. IOW, people will only notice the bare OUTCOME, and will not learn that polls (especially open source ones) can be wrongly weighted or manipulated. That means tons of folks will blindly follow Silver. That’s a shame if that happens. It’s imperative that Romney wins, not only for obvious reasons, but for the concept of exposing poll methodology weaknesses…

  18. Ranger375
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Here is a first for us — my wife and I are going to be making phone calls for Romney into Ohio today. We start in about an hour.

    This should be interesting! We feel really good about helping out.

  19. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    “I was the one that posted teh Ann Compton quote on the other thread. She said they had given up on FL, NC and VA – and that they were “holding on” – hoping to win OH, WI and IA.”

    By the way, if this is true, there’s no way it’s tied, as even Ras is saying.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink | Reply

      There’s no way VA is tied, I mean.

    • wmart
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      Can you give more details on that? Are you sure you didn’t mishear something, because that doesn’t sound like the stories I have heard over the last 24 hours or so…was it that radio newsbrief, or something?

  20. Publius
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    My sense is that Obama and Romney have been making quick stops in Virginia more to push either Allen or Kaine ahead in the Senatorial race. I think that Romney has the state.

  21. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:27 am | Permalink | Reply

    Larry Sabato and Not Larry Sabato both say VA is going to be the tightest race. Since they regularly predict too often that D’s will win, I think this means Romney is ahead. But make no mistake, the Powell ad moved some votes here. I just don’t believe that Obama can make up the deficit he has in lost EV on election day.

    • Publius
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      I saw the dumb Powell ad. The R’s should just excommunicate him from the party so that the dems cannot say that a “Republican” is supporting Obama.

      I’m not so sure how much that has really changed anything here on the ground. I sense that Republicans are very enthused, and independents are going for Romney. I do not think that Virginia is going to be as close as people think. I am calling a Romney win by between 3-4%.

      • HeelinRVA
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

        This is my sense as well. Here in Richmond, there is no enthusiasm for the President. We have many friends who voted for the President are now going to vote for Romney; I know of no one who voted for McCain who will be voting for the President.

  22. Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    GALLUP POLL TO SHOW ROMNEY 49-OBAMA 48.

    1 point is not the cushion I was hoping for

  23. O'Buhbye
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What the other side is projecting:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-presidential-race

    Trippi O 303 R 235

  24. pjbrien
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regards to Virginia – we live and work in Northern Virginia and headed out for lunch about 90 minutes ago to Chipotle in Vienna, VA. (3 soft tacos with mild salsa, cheese and lettuce) Vienna is a small town in the heart of Fairfax County which went for Obama in 2008 by 60 – 39.

    Since we were coming from Fairfax City about 20 minutes away we decided to do a count of yard signs along the way. Rules were simple – only one sign counted per home and a really big sign counts for 2.

    Final results……….

    Romney 50

    Obama 38

    This is amazing seeing as most of these signs were counted in Vienna which is even more liberal than the County of Fairfax.

    My prediction for tomorrow is 50.5 for R 48.5 for Obama.

    While I was out there I bumped into Marist doing some polling – they were standing on the side of the road counting bumper stickers on Prius’s – Tied at 47 with a D +37 🙂

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