Republicans Erase Obama Early Vote Advantage

Apologies to everyone, but I’m working remotely (again).  The lower Manhattan Verizon network is down so my home computer is useless. Even my much delayed wrap up of Clark County, Nevada is on hold.  Thankfully the below write-up by Rick Klein gives the macro view from Nevada which is very good for the GOP although I believe all parties were hopeful for an even better showing. Early voting was Obama’s real secret weapon in 2008 but in state after state that advantage is getting wiped away making election day all the more precarious to his re-election chances.  Our own David Ramos has done an amazing job breaking down ColoradoRick Klein takes a look at Nevada and Florida and other Battlegrounds as we inch closer to November 6 …. one more day! … one more day! … one more day!

Nevada

Take a look at the key battleground state of Nevada, for example, where early and absentee voting made up about 67 percent of the total votes cast in the state in 2008. Democrats outperformed Republicans in early voting that year by a little less than 12 percentage points, 47.6 percent of the early votes cast came from registered Democrats, while 35.8 percent came from registered Republicans. This year, that gap has narrowed to roughly 7 points, with registered Democrats accounting for 43.9 percent of the votes cast already, and Republicans making up 37 percent, according to figures from the United States Election Project.

Florida

In Florida in 2008, registered Democrats cast 44.9 percent of the early votes, while registered Republicans only cast 37.9 percent. This year, that gap is down as well. Registered Democrats have accounted for 42.6 percent of the early vote, registered Republicans 39.5 percent.

Nationwide

Across the board, in 2008, Democrats held an 11 percentage point advantage over Republicans going into Election Day in the battleground states where party registration was available, but this year, that gap has been cut down to about a6 point advantage, according to one GOP official.

To cannibal or not to cannibal

One of the reasons for Republican gains in early voting has to do with an improved get-out-the-vote operation (commonly referred to as “GOTV”) from 2008. In 2008, Republicans had a weaker operation than Democrats. This year, Republicans amped up their game, targeting “low-propensity” voters, or people who, when they vote, vote Republican, but have not consistently turned out in elections. “If you live in Ohio and Iowa, for example, and you’re a low-propensity Republican voter, you voted in a primary or you’re registered Republicans but you’ve missed some, what you’re going to get form the Romney campaign and the RNC is somebody coming to your door with an absentee ballot, you’re going to get mail that has absentee-ballot request forms,” Republican National Committee  spokesman Tim Miller said.

Minding the gap doesn’t mean victory

From a simple mathematical standpoint, however, Democrats are ahead in the vote count in four out of the five battleground states that offer in-person early voting and register voters by a political party: Nevada, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina.

Firewall lacks clarity

The key Midwestern states that permit in-person early voting – Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin – do not register by party affiliation, so it is impossible to make any definitive statement about which party is ahead in the vote count. Those three states have been identified as a kind of Electoral College firewall for Obama that offers him a path to 270 electoral votes even if he loses in all of the other battleground states

43 Comments

  1. Interested Party
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Final Ras poll (I think final): 49-48 R, 13% lead with indies. Looking good. Still on track for 51-48, 300 EV.

    • Philanthropic_Extortinist
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:12 am | Permalink | Reply

      To all liberals on this board, this is the most consistent poll for 10+ years. Post all the college, MSM, etc. polls you want to try and back up your claims; it’s not going to drown out the facts. Consistancy is the key to integrity with polls, and the fly-by-night polling outfits will soon be like dust in the wind.

    • jeff
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly whst Rove predicts.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink

        I thought Rove was predicting a 279 EV win?

    • live_free290248
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rove was one of the worsts in 2008, and he will get it wrong again. I am talking about state polls.

  2. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney’s giving yet another spectacular address in Sanford.

    • AJ
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink | Reply

      yeah, but holy crap he looks tired….

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink

        Not seeing that at all, but I am more listening than watching.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      I could hear this stump speech all day. It’s about as good a closing argument as there can be.

  3. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Four day indie track in Ras national polling:

    Romney +3 Friday, +5 Saturday, +9 Sunday, +15 today. It’s now confirmed. Runaway momentum for Romney among indies nationally.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:09 am | Permalink | Reply

      I feel for the Sandy victims and destruction, but given that trend, if there were no Sandy we might have been looking at +20

    • John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      firebird – Are these daily numbers or three-day rolling averages like the RAS top-line values? If they are rolling averages it suggests today’s split may be near +20 for Romney. Either way though great trend!

      • Dave
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink

        Becuase he works for NBC News (formerly MSNBC) and his corrupt bosses told him to say that if he wanted to keep his job and his phat paycheck. Who people expect to win predicts elections 86% of the time.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      we got this thing. Gravis yesterday had Romney up with Indys by 18. Cnn has Romney up 22 with Indys

      • jeff
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:15 am | Permalink

        Then why did that beady eyed and token Republican Joe Scarborough pretty much declared Obama the winner?

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink

        Please, no mention of Scarborough and Christie. Those guys are ME-publicans.

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink

        He actually said today that this could go to Romney…enthusiasm on the R side. I was listening to that segment earlier today. He was in the middle…I’m not a big Scarborough fan either since he turned to the dark side, but he didn’t come out that he didn’t think Romney could win…he said if he was a betting man, based on today’s polls, he’d say Obama, but then said Romney definitely has a shot.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink

        Because they are liberals and never admit defeat. They will try to find hanging chads or something. Just their nature. Why do their events look like a trash dump after a gathering verses a rep. event who cleans up. Again just their nature.

      • Dave
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink

        Becuase he works for NBC News

  4. Elise
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    Please explain the comment above that it is not possible to determine what is happening in Ohio. ll weekend we’ve heard from Rove and others that the net result of EV in OH is that the Dems are down and the GOP is up to the tune of 263k votes. Where are these numbers coming from if it is impossible to make a definitive statement?

    • jeff
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think it refers to in person early voting as opposed to absentee ballots in which the Democrats ate down 260k this election cycle.

    • Stephen
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      Ohio has been releasing actual vote by party. But it is tentative because you are listed as the party that you voted in the primary. So if you were a D and voted in the R primary (spoiler vote…etc) then it could skew the vote some. Still, most ppl will not cross over like that so it should be a relatively minor #. The bigger concern if I’m Obama is the Cuyahoga County #. As of the end of last night they are down by 21% in D turnout. IF that trend continues, then Romney will win Ohio…and it won’t be close.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:34 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think it means that since voters don’t register by party in OH, it’s impossible to make guesses on how voting will turnout based on party ID. What Rove is talking about are the votes already cast. Nobody really knows what the breakdown will be tomorrow.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink | Reply

      If you assume that most of Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) normally votes Democrat, you can make the deduction that Democratic EV is way down because Cuyahoga voting is way down.

      Taking a little more on faith, backed up by non-denials from dem campaign folks, is that more dems who would have voted on electoio day anyway have already voted, vs. Republicans who got “lower propensity” i.e., more iffy voters to vote early.

      • Fred S
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink

        Since 2008, thousands of voters in Cuyahoga have been purged from voting rolls. 2012 has slightly higher R registration, but still huge Dem advantage. O won 69% of Cuyahoga vote in 2008, Kerry 66% in 2004. If O gets 66% or less with a smaller turnout, he is toast.

  5. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama may be ahead in turnout in Florida so far, but don’t count on the votes. Indies breaking hard for Romney and we have a lot of Democrats that vote Republican. Even so, I expect a surge tomorrow for the GOP.

    • AndyN
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s not just the indy vote that will propel Romney, the crossover vote is also key. It looks like 5% of GOP voters will go for Obama while 13% of Dems will vote for Romney

  6. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    The issue is not so much that R’s are up in early voting, or even that D’s are down. It’s the D cannibalization of their own high propensity voters. You have to keep in mind the demographics of it all. R’s don’t need people physically to pick them up in buses and literally to take them to the polls. High propensity R’s will vote of their own volition. What’s happening here is that the Dems are taking their high propensity voters and instead of dragging them to the polls on Election Day they’re dragging them to the polls before election day. That the early vote gap has closed so materially is disastrous news for Team Obama. Romney will obtain a lot more crossover votes and he’ll win the I vote going away (and I’s are much less likely to early vote than partisans). This doesn’t mean the election is in the bag for Romney, but it does mean that Obama is in very dire straits.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      I keep hearing this argument, but how do we know this is really the case?

  7. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Not too sure about that American Crossroads ad, Who are you appealing to when the mother looks like she takes Spring vacations to Paris.

  8. M. White
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    Demorcats are always ahead in early voting, that is a fact…the point of the post is they are way down from 2008 and that is a bad sign for Obama, they have to really run it to overcome Republican turnout on Election Day. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and others look good. You have to know the trends and I am telling you Romney is looking good.

    • jeff
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

      I read somewhere thay an expert in PA politics indicated that for Obama to win PA he would have to repeat the 2008 turnout especially in Philly and Pittsburgh. That would be interesting to see.

  9. M. White
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    One more thought…all of these states with early voting will release their numbers for EV’s throughout the day, that’s why Dems like to lead in EV’ing because it gives the perception they are winning and that can lead to voter suppression Election Day, that’s why I am completely against EV’ing, it was afterall Dems idea to have people voting for the whole month of October. It’s a tactic they got passed in important states for the reason I stated. Just like something I read last night, don’t believe the numbers you hear tomorrow coming out for early voting because will skew for the Dems. This happens every election no matter who wins. I told you last night that back in 2000 the media called FL for Gore before the polls closed in the Panhandle and it cost Bush votes there because they very red in that area but when it was called they left the polling stations thinking it was too late. DON’T BELIEVE ANYTHING YOU HEAR TOMORROW UNTIL THE FINAL VOTE COUNT. THE MEDIA WILL TRY ANYTHING TOMORROW TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE OBAMA IS WAY AHEAD, NO NEED TO GO VOTE BECAUSE OBAMA’S GOT IT, DON’T YOU BELIEVE IT, IT’S THIS STUPIED EARLY VOTE NUMBERS, REPUBLICANS WILL TURN OUT TOMORROW AND IT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL VOTE TALLY, WE WILL WIN!

    • JGS
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      +1 (or, in a shout-out to CNN, +11)

    • tmcvei
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 8:38 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think one thing we may be missing is that in states like Florida where the number of EV days has been cut dramatically and where we see Dems voting until 2am that many of the Dems are not willing to wait for 6+hours in line so they will vote on election day where they will have voting places in every precinct. We may see more Dems voting on ED.

  10. jeff
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    Im still suspicoous of the Ras poll. For ecample he had only 86% Republicans supporting Romney while even the MSM polls have it to 95%

  11. jon
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    With the Rass poll and all other trackers breaking Independents heavy for Romney. It is aliging historically with the party ID model.

    Lets say we have an electorate of 34R/36D/30I, which isn’t unrealistic. Obama will have 48.9-48.7 of the vote. Romeny will have 51.4 of the vote, but I will subtract 1% for other canidates from this, and give Romeny a 1.5% margin in the PV.

    Using historic trends, this means that Ohio will be about 1% Romeny (I looked at the demographics to come out with this). IA should fall for Obama. Prob WI, PA, MI too. CO and NH for Romney.

    Anything under a D+2 electorate, and the whole thing falls apart!

    • JGS
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      Historically, Ohio is slightly MORE R than the nation as a whole, not less.

  12. Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    GALLUP POLL TO SHOW ROMNEY 49-OBAMA 48.

    1 point is not the cushion I was hoping for

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