Iowa Early Vote

Trying to drill down on Romney’s standing with Independents versus Bush’s standing at the same point, but this is a good sign:

I’m hearing that Bush lost Iowa Independents by 1-point while in Iowa polling Romney typically leads among Independents by 5-7 points making his hurdle slightly lower to clear.


  1. indydoug
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    what was it in 2008 for election day voting?

  2. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    Doable. Romney will garner more Dem crossover votes than vice-versa. Romney will win the I vote. But IA will be a tough nut to crack and hopefully Team Romney didn’t spend too many resources there at the expense of other targets. IA after all has the dubious distinction of being one of only a very small handful of states to have voted for Clinton, Gore and Dukakis. Old political habits tend to die hard.

    • NP
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      This is a done deal. Even McCain had big lead on Iowa election day voting.

      • KN
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:44 am | Permalink

        Done deal for Romney or Obama?

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:46 am | Permalink

        You are in for a surprise.

  3. Tom
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink | Reply


  4. Jody
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    Ras Virginia R 50 O 48, Nov 5th

  5. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    Incumbents under 50% the say before the election?

    Come on.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink | Reply


  6. Japes
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:43 am | Permalink | Reply

    Here are some links. Each county has an “absentee” line item. Not sure if that includes EV. you can do a sum if or a lookup to exclude that line in your totals and it can give you an idea of voting on ED by party as the tallies are separated.

  7. KN
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    If Ohio is +R and Colorado and Virginia are both +R, maybe then I can sleep. Of course, also depends on the Senate.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      It would be better to have the senate than not, but with the current system of, ‘If you do that we’ll filibuster” and the other side accepting it without making the other side actually, you know, filibuster, Romney is still going to have to go over the head of the senate to the american people to get some big stuff passed,except the budget.

      • Ron
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink

        Senate doesn’t filibuster budget issues.

      • Ron
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:07 am | Permalink

        Sorry. Missed the last phrase. But stopping Obamacare is a big deal.

  8. Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen just posted these clues to the outcome:

    “One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.

    If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate.”

    What was the white turnout in 2008? Does it look like it will surpass 74% this time? Anybody help here?

    • Japes
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think we can really work with that as well as that appears to be a national assumption. We have to go by battleground and the white vote there in 2008 vs. what we presume it will be now. Very dicey. Given the R Intensity and the propensity of the R party to win this segment I would venture to say things look good. It won’t be 74.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. The intensity on the ground in Ohio gives me the most hope. Those 300,000 Mormon distrusting Evangelicals now appear to have overcome their doubts, since they distrust Obama even more and rightly see him as a threat to their continued religious freedom. My gut instincts tell me that Republican enthusiasm in Ohio will overcome a somewhat tamped down Democrat effort — giving us Ohio for a win, and with it the presidency.

    • wmart
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink | Reply

      58% of the white vote is too low. It needs to be over 60. If Romney is only getting 58%, then Obama is not getting much less of the white vote than he got last time.

  9. Jan
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Previous gap: 63,036 ballots
    Updated gap: 65,099 in favor of the dems.

    Still short from the number of 70,000 that I argued before Romney should be fairly easy overcome on Election Day.
    There is only 1 day left of EV, so I still like how things are going in Iowa.

    2008: 94,000 gap (out of about 545,000 cast) 17,2%
    2012: 65,000 gap (out of about 640,000 cast) 10,2%

  10. Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:12 pm | Permalink | Reply


    1 point is not the cushion I was hoping for

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