GOTV Raw Meat for the Converted

Here is the memo from the RNC’s Rick Wiley on tomorrow’s Get Out the Vote designed to bury the Obama machine


[W]e are poised to blow the Obama campaign out on Election Day thanks to a superior GOTV program and a historical GOP Election Day advantage In the four party-registration states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), we are poised to win the Election Day vote by even greater margins than we did in 2008. That’s right, Jeremy Bird, we beat you on Election Day even in 2008. This time around we have over 150,000 volunteers across the battleground who have already contacted over 53 million voters and expect to contact millions more from now until the polls close tomorrow night.

Who is the cannibal?

In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.

And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.

Field Office trash talk

The Obama campaign’s superior ground game is a myth. They claim they have double and triple the people and offices across the country, yet poll after poll has shown voters have been contacted equally if not more by the Romney campaign and the Republicans. It goes to show you what big government bureaucracy gets you.

I’m glad Democrats are so eager to talk about their ground game. The more they talk, the more they prove the numbers don’t add up. It’s (ground) game over.


  1. stuckinmass
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve been curious about this high vs low propensity claim.
    How do they know that? Do they have access to lists of who voted in both parties and their history of turning out and are able to crunch those numbers rapidly? Do the secretaries of state provide this information?

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:38 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yes for the Republicans.

      The Dems simply get Dems to the polls.

      So while I have no idea how anyone would say with any certainty how many high v. low propensity voters are out there, the Republicans certainly think they have gotten more low propensity people out already and non denials by dems on this issue may back up that claim.

      • Tom
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:10 am | Permalink

        Actually, Major Garrett stated 2 days ago that he was told by Dem insiders that the dems were in fact cannabalizing their votes. It was a glaring admission. Obama is in deep trouble. The election day vote for Romney is going to be tremendous.

    • live_free290248
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      They don’t know, it’s only a talking point.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:03 am | Permalink

        No it’s not.

      • reliablesource
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:44 am | Permalink

        The GOP has a massive data center that can basically tell you what a voter had for breakfast yesterday. It is updated with all public voter information. Using advanced algorithms, they can determine whether or not someone is a reliable voter. Republicans have turn out unreliable, Republican leaning voters. Democrats have turned out their base in early voting, and are now trying to get their unreliable voters to the polls. This will prove to be a losing strategy.

        Voters do not stand in line to vote for the status-quo.

      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, then why did the Romney campaign CALL me (3) days after I early voted in Nevada to thank me for my vote when I have had ZERO contact as I don’t answer my cell phone (my only phone) if a number does show up in my caller ID. It must be MAGIC. You ever hear of COMPUTER DATABASES.


    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      voters don’t registered by party but once they vote in a primary, that is noted and they’re registered there by the state, so to speak.

      The last contested primary was republican, so you could think maybe their numbers are overstated, ie maybe dems or independents voted in it and are now marked as “republican”.

      That’s my understanding anyway.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:59 am | Permalink

        You are correct.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

        Yes, I’m sure that’s it. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

    • Anoymous Former PCO
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As someone who used to have access to precinct level data from the GOP Voter Vault, I know a little how it works.

      Basically, it is a list of all the registered voters and their voting history. So you have voter name and address – all the info that they would put on their state voter registration card. In many cases, you may also have a phone number for the voter – sometimes that comes from the state info, other times that is collected by the party independently.

      For each voter, you have a simple voting history. Now you will never know who the voter has voted for – that’s the nature of the secret ballot. But you do know if they voted in a party primary (in the states without open primary), and you know which party. Combine that with a voter’s history of primary and general election turnout, you can give a voter a score of 0-4. GOP folks will often refer to a “4” as a “hard R”. Basically, if you have a 4 score, you have voted in every single election, plus every single Republican primary. Those would be the highest of high-propensity voters. On the other end, you might be a registered Republican but have never actually voted – in that case, you would be a zero.

      So this is not a bluff – the Republicans have a good idea of what has happened with early voting in Ohio and who is left to vote tomorrow. The recent change to no party affiliation registration makes it a little more difficult than in the past. But since that is a recent change, there’s still a ton of voters that have been around for more than one cycle that they have a good read on their “score”.

      I’m not giving away the good secrets – what I’ve described is pretty well known, and the Democrats basically also have the same info in their own database. There’s a little bit about it at:,9171,995394,00.html

  2. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting article here from the Daily Mail (UK) which interviews a Romney campaign *advisor*

    Says probably can’t win Nevada.

    Also said Colorado is now closer than iowa because of Christies slobberfest with Obama (if true, Christie should be hung by his cajones).

    Says will win a close race in Ohio and 300 electoral votes.

    • Dave
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      Christies slobberfest

      Win or lose Christies future with the republican party seems tenuous. By the time reelection nears the good people of NJ will have forgotten whatever Christie did with Obama and if the dems can find a reasonbaly good candidate then Christie will be ousted as dems will vote dem and republicans will stay home.

      • JGS
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:47 am | Permalink


      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:26 am | Permalink

        What did Axelrod give or promise Christie for his endoresement. Yep I’m cynical anytime the Chicago syndicate is involved.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink

        Christie is done if Romney wins. No Romney endorsement for him and prominent GOPers will endorse Booker who isn’t too far to the Left.

        Private equity/WS money will move to Booker as well which is big in NJ

        Needless to say whatever happens he has no national profile in the GOP may have to pull a Crist.

    • petep
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      The idea that Christie’s bromance who impact CO voters tells me this interview was with a hack from a failed campaign

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:48 am | Permalink

        Read it.

        I didn’t get that impression.

      • M.White
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink

        Probably McCain’s old campaign advisor that goes on MSNBC pretending to be a republican, what’s his name, I think it’s Steve Smidt or something. If so, he’s a hack! Just like the rest of McCain’s failed campaign advisors. I am not saying anything negative about McCain but he did run a lowsy campaign with turncoat Republicans, the so-called moderates! Not that McCain could have won with the heavy winds in his face back in 2008 but they could have least done a good enough job to have been close.

      • JP
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:07 am | Permalink

        I don’t really get this whole Christie thing, I mean I guess he over did it slightly but this narrative of “Christie said Obama cares about hurricane victims GAME OVER ROMNEY” is a little silly. I’m especially incredulous about how some lukewarm praise by a New Jersey governor of the president somehow effects people in suburban midwestern states. Whatever bounce Obama got out of sandy has already faded so any sort of lingering christie bump is definitely non-existent .

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:17 am | Permalink

        One of the things indies and undecideds don’t like about Obama is his ultra partisanship.

        So when a high profile republican governor repeated kisses Obama’s as… – er, ring, it gives a different impression – especially when for two or three days that was the only “campaigning” that was going on.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      CO is in the bag for Romney. A few days ago 38,000 more Republicans than Democrats had voted…EARLY. I’m sure the numbers are even higher now. I personally know a lot of Republicans that refuse to vote early and will only vote on election day here. So the fact that a lot of us only vote on election day and we already have a huge advantage says everything about this state.
      ~ Brittany

      • MassLiberty
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:02 am | Permalink

        Only problem is, Colorado was the one state where Obama outperformed McCain on election day. So, I’m cautious.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink

        That’s also when the slobberfest for “the first (half) black President” was going on. CO has also cracked down on ineligible voters (Denver is a sanctuary city) this year.
        ~ Brittany

      • Tom
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink

        Agreed, CO is in the Romney bag. Mitt-Mentum

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      I attended University in London and can tell you the Daily Mail, though right-wing, is far from credible on this sort of story.They just aren’t credible.

      • Adam
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink

        Toby Harnden is a respected reporter moving to the Times in 2013 (London Times you guys call it) so your standard snobbishness about the Daily Mail (a paper which sells more copies than all the lefty rubbish combined) is not relevant here.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

        The Daily Mail is hit or miss. Sometimes they get basic science facts wrong and many of their headlines are downright deceitful.

        But I still read it from time to time.

      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Kind of hard to win here in Nevada after we find out yesterday from the Las Vegas Review Journal that the Culinary union has been registering ILLEGAL aliens who work for the food service union. And you wonder how Angle LOST to Dirty harry Reid after having a (4) point lead (30) days before the election. Here’s the link.

      BUT, the Dems have blown their whole wad with high propensity early voters and the pubs weren’t far behind if not tied after early voting and the Pubs will outperform them election day. I have a “gut” feeling that with Heller polling 52-48 against challenger Berkley, he will “pull” Mitt over the line with a narrow 51-49 win.


  3. johnfisher
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    If election day votes are close to what Romney camp is touting… it will be a Romney landslide.

  4. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    Just saw Rove on FOX, he seemed bullish to me.

    • Eli
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      I absolutely want Romney to win. Nonetheless, anything Rove says on TV about this needs to be taken witha grain of salt. I like Rove (I even bought his book, though I haven;t finished it yet). But as much as i don’t think he is dishonest in the way that partisan Dems say, I do believe that if he thought that being publicly bullish woudl help Romney’s chances, that he would do so, even if he was privately worried. Running a mjor PAC, he isn’t exactly a disinterested observer. Barone’s teh opne I want o hear from. i want o here HIM saying that he stands by his column. That would make me feel a lot better.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:28 am | Permalink

        How often do you want Barone to say it?

      • Eli
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

        He’s a media personality. I don’t mean that I EXPECT him to repeat his prediction. But we all know that doubling down on a prediction indicates (1) more confidence in its correctness and (2) that he is discounting the last few new cycles as having changed his mind. I’d just feel BETTER if he said that he still stands by it, that’s all.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

        This is from Saturday:

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        Barone is even more bullish than Rove. Rove only predicted a 279 EV win!

    • Pensive Boomer
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He’s standing by that statement as of right now on Fox News with Megyn Kelly, but says each “swing” state he predicted for Romney will be close but will ultimately go with Romney.

  5. Ranger375
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Yes, said Ohio would be decided by 80 to 100K number of votes. Wow that is close.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:50 am | Permalink | Reply

      What’s your take on that? I thought he’d be more confident about Ohio because obviously, that’s the gateway.

      • Ranger375
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:02 am | Permalink

        You know I think Rove is little confused as we all are about the counter intuitive polling and data points. But overall I think he feels from his experience the intangibles are hard to ignore.

        He is just as human as us so there is some gut feeling going on and since we are at the “guessing phase” still there are things that can happen that surprise all of us.

        He still seems confident but clearly no crystal ball available for him or any of us.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink | Reply

      The worst part about it is if Ohio is the last state an dit make the difference, and it’s really that close, we won’t know until the 20th of November when they count provisional ballots and it will be lawsuit city and the year 2000 all over again.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        Oh frig, I forgot about their ‘we’ll count when we’re good and ready’ stance. Surely they will have to rethink that is it really comes to those ballots?

      • M.White
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink

        I don’t think so, I believe he will win by 200,000 – 250,000 votes.

    • Teapartypaul
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      80 to 100 isnt close. Obama won in his 2008 landslide by 200k. And he outspent mccain in ohio like 5 to 1

    • John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      100K out of the 5.7 million total votes expected (using 2008 total) would be a 1.8% marging of victory for whomever and well outside the recount window. I assume Rove is going with a Romney win by that amount.

      • Ranger375
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink

        Yes, for Romney. He seemed more uncertain once he was asked if Ohio is lost. Wisconsin and the other states required for Romney to win he was more uncertain. To me — it was clear he feels Ohio is still the key.

  6. Di
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    They know high propensity voters versus low by how often they’ve voted in the last few election cycles. If what they’re saying is so, it’s going to be a great day tomorrow. I CANNOT WAIT to vote!!!!!! Nothing, absolutely nothing will stop me and the many who feel as I do that it is been a long time coming to turn this country around!

    • M.White
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      The reason they know these things is because you look up voter registration in each state and it will tell you how often you vote and which elections you voted in or at least it does here in NC, it is public information. I can go right now the NCBOE and see that I voted and it shows everytime I have voted in the past and whether is was absentee, early vote or on election day. Not sure about all states but I believe it would be close to that. Here is my county we vote with paper ballot, circling in bubbles, which I prefer, can’t stand electronic machines, we tried here one time and people protested and the county switched back. There is way too much room for error with the electronic machines. I would rather circle my dots with pen, much less room for voter fraud. In Ohio back in 2008 people were taking memory sticks and machines home with them. Anyway, with the paper ballots and electronic machines is tracks your name to your vote, paper ballots have a bar code at the bottom that is scanned to your name, that’s how they keep up with how often and when you vote.

  7. M.White
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Please don’t get me started on Christie. Yesterday he was asked about his support of Romney at a press conference, yes, he still supports Romney and will vote for him but then went on and on about his romance with the President. I have said this in previous posts but I will say this again…I will never support Christie and I mean never! He is unpredictable, that is why he wasn’t chosen for the VP slot. Even at his keynote speech at the RNC, he was reluctant to mention Romney, it was all about him. I wondered about him at that time. He is out for himself, not his party as a whole…he forgets how got where he is, just like Colin Powell. Republicans placed too much trust in these people. Don’t trust turncoats, these so-called Republicans, Peggy Noonan, Matthew Dowd, David Frum, Joe Scarbourough, and the list goes on and on. You get my point. If I were Christie I wouldn’t expect much Republican support no matter who wins. If he ever seeks the nomination, he won’t get my vote. I forgive but I don’t forget!

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      As I said, Christie is a ME-publican. Look for him to do a gastric bypass if Romney loses to make himself look more “presidential”.
      Hopefully, Romney wins and treats him like shit for a few months before giving him the ring to kiss. Lol.

      • Dave
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:08 am | Permalink

        LOL. And that ring would not be a finger ring…

      • Dave
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink

        Some ME-republicans probably are insulted…Olympia Snowe for example seemed far more principled than Christie ever will or could possibly be. ME folk can’t find a wishy washy personality like Christie’s appealing.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

        Gastric bypass. These fat #%@!s ever tried not eating like gluttons?

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:03 am | Permalink | Reply

      he is absolutely disgusting.

    • Dave
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:06 am | Permalink | Reply

      I guess some reporter probably asked him (the inimitably silly question) “given your relationship with the president, do you sill support candidate Romney?”. Can you imagine if he had said No, I cannot support Romney,etc… Can you imagine the lynch mob that would have awaited him in front of the governors mansion? Reporter’s questions sometimes…. uggg. I guess it never hurts to ask. Given the reaction of the electorate around the country, I can’t imagine the RNC/Romney Campaign saying they were OK with a photoop with Obama before Sandy really hit as was suggested here awhile ago.

      Even if Christie for some unexplicable reason gets the support of the republican ledership come reelection (he is technically still one of them and he is currently governor), I would venture to guess opponents will have a field day with that Obama footage, especially any early primary opponents.

      • UncleFred
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

        What matters to the people of NJ is that their governor put the best interests of his state a head of presidential politics, and has continued to work tirelessly to bring relief and assistance to the people devastated by Sandy. I don’t much like the fact that gave Obama a photo-op, but were I in that situation I would expect no less than that from my governor.

        Besides, as FEMA and the feds, TRAGICALLY, continue to screw up efforts to help, Obama looks worse everyday. He treated it as a campaign opportunity, and then failed to follow up. In the end Sandy will hurt Obama more than help him.

  8. housebroken dad
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    Some encouraging insight from middle cheese:

  9. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    They know high propensity voters from the records. In FL you can see party affiliation and election history for each voter. It obviously keeps who they voted for secret. So you can see who has turned out during off years, primaries, etc.

  10. housebroken dad
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Reports are that Ras has Ohio still tied – 49/49. Wonder what the partisan breakdown is.

  11. live_free290248
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    talking points don’t win elections, ground game does.

    • Philanthropic_Extortinist
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      No, ground game doesn’t win elections. Enthusiasm wins elections.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:01 am | Permalink | Reply

      How’s that ground game in Ohio so far?

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:31 am | Permalink

        At worst, Obama wins Ohio by 50k votes.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

        Care to ‘splain how?

        Because your early voting deficit makes that very unlikely.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

        People want me to do analysis, I have, and yet they still don’t get it. When I start throwing out numbers, it becomes too confusing for some, and they resort to other things that make no sense. They data in Ohio is harder to mine. Assuming that the numbers the GOP are releasing are correct, it does not bold well for them, at least for people who understand the math.

        What they are saying is support for Obama is down 78% in Ohio. A very unlikely number, even in Florida, where Obama is not doing as well as in Ohio, support looks down for Ds about only 36%. Lets assume the 78% is correct, even at that, Rs would have to perform at a apocalyptic proportions on election day to even win. It won’t happen.

        We will find out soon.

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

        Live Free…the basics are 08 Obama won the state by 260,000 votes. This year…going into election day they have had about 230,000 FEWER voters in early voting and republicans have about 30,000 MORE. That’s pretty much the 260,000 margin from 08 right there. You start Election day nearly dead even as opposed down quarter a million.

    • Dave
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      Voter fraud wins close elections these days

      • Dave
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:18 am | Permalink

        I mean “enthusiasm” + “ground game” win electiions…

  12. Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Interestingly in Nevada, though Jon Ralston is predicting an Obama win by 4% (Obama getting around 50% of the vote), he is predicting that Heller will win reelection (though it’ll go to a recount). Most interestingly, he’s predicting the GOP to take back the Nevada Senate and pick-up seats in th Assembly…

  13. Charles Houston
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    I know North Carolina has not been a true battleground state, but the Democrats biggest early vote turnout advantage was in that state (+16%). The Obama campaign is claiming that Romney will need to get 65% of the election day vote to win. How close will the total vote be in North Carolina given the large Democratic vote in early voting?

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      well last time it was 24% and the total EV is about the same. The race ended up tied and went to Obama.

      So it isn’t insurmountable at all. Given dem crossovers and more support amongst independents, it should be easier still. Independents in NC voted Mccain 60-40, so what will they do for romney? 70-30?

    • Mike
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 5:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Charles, 20 to 25 percent of DEMs are Dixie DEMs they vote local for local DEMs but they normally vote REP for general election, add that to the INDs who are for Romney and you don’t have to worry about because Romney have it.

  14. Derclaw86
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    There is another issue that no one is talking about. In 2008, the Repubs were led by Michael Steele. He was horrible and woefully incompetent. All he did was appear on television and pad the RNC payroll by hiring a bunch of his cronies. Even in 2010, the Repubs badly under performed their polling (Gallup had Repubs with a double digit lead in its generic ballot). When Steele was fired, the RNC was millions of dollars in debt. Enter Reince Priebus. As a state chairman, all he did was organize the Republican wins in Wisconsin in 2010, not only for Gov Walker, but for getting rid of 3 term liberal Sen Russ Feingold. He organized Gov Walker’s recall victory. And now Repubs have a decided organizational advantage in Wisconsin. Priebus has not wasted time and resources to make himself popular, like Michael Steele did. Instead, he has fundraised and organized the RNC into the most potent ground force it has ever been. Look at how pathetic Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the DNC is by comparison. The Obama campaign may have a horde of paid staffers pushing their vote. However, they’re not organizing against idiots like Michael Steele anymore. This will definitely show up on Tuesday..

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’m very glad you brought up this point. Reince Priebus has absolutely been a big difference maker. The 2010 election results luckily occurred because of the candidates themselves and people’s pent up frustration coming out in their first main chance to vote. The RNC really had not of much of a hand in them. This year I haven’t heard many GOPer’s saying they’re sending money to candidates and not the RNC as evidenced by the huge cash hauls these last two years. Priebus has really been coordinating well with all GOP involved.

      It’s not just coincidence that Wisconsin has started turning red the last few years. Of course there are always many factors but Priebus figures largely in it.
      He also seems to be a pretty friendly guy to boot.

    • Mike
      Posted November 6, 2012 at 5:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      Derclaw86, you made a good point!!

  15. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    So I guess Rasmussen is covering his bets. If its a blowout, his RDI numbers become the most respected in the political universe. If it’s close and comes down to 1 or 2 states, well, that’s what his numbers say too.

  16. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    interesting… is now encouraging its volunteers to contact Michigan…so I guess they’re worried about MI.. the area they’re concentrating on is Southfield, MI — a Jewish suburb of Detroit…

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      It occurred to me that Romney is pulling a stealth in Michigan. This is good, for those out there that say ‘well maybe Romney should have just not hooped it up in MN, PA and see if it flips on its own” He’s actually got that strategy going on in Michigan.

      • wholefoodsrepublican
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        they’re also focusing on canton, ann arbor, farmington hills, and detroit

  17. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    But if Gallup sticks to a 4-5% margin for Obama, sticking to its RDI guns, they will own the universe that Rasmussen lives in.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      Gallup sticks to a 4-5% margin for Romney….

  18. No Tribe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama must have really toxic internal numbers on his favorability numbers in Pennsylvania. They include MN in their online buy, but not PA:×250-728×90-and-160×600-sizes.html

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wrong link, I think.

      Anyway, it’s explained pretty easily by Pennsylvania being very “white” demographically, a metric with which Obama is doing very poorly.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        Of course, duh, not as white as MN.

        So just ignore me, please.

  19. fromtheheartofitall
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    Question: How might the court ordered extension of Florida’s early voting impact Florida’s election results?

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      Probably not. I think its despicable that there are not enough polls that people have to stand in line for hours. I wouldn’t do it.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      it’s one polling place for a few hours. The real impact is that the ballot in those places is very, very long and dems are too slow witted to figure it out. That’s what’s causing the lines. They’ll probably be lines tomorrow and vote will be “suppressed” by their own stupidity.

      But Florida probably shouldn’t be close anyway.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      they had a bomb threat closed the polling place a few hours…the judger merely gave them the make up hours back

  20. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    winter park, where there was a long line, is a republican-ish, well to do Orlando suburban area of Central Florida — at least when I was living there

  21. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sometime, and this not it, I’d like to have discussion on early voting.

    There are a lot of issues with early voting, good and bad.

  22. UncleFred
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve been working for the Romney campaign and have written up some information about how the campaign identifies voters for the GOTV operation. You can find it here:

    The Obama campaign does essentially the same thing. The difference now from 2008 is that the Romney campaign has executed on this extremely well. The various primaries were excellent test beds to hone to process and the intensity on the Republican side is like nothing I’ve ever seem before.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting stuff.

      Interesting it takes eight “contacts” to get someone to actually get someone to the point where they “might” vote.

      What a country.

  23. SR
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Guys, this is HUGE. Rasmussen’s latest party ID affiliation for Oct.Repubs are PLUS SIX!!!!!!!
    “Rasmussen party ID survey had D+7 in 2008 (was D+7), D+3 in 2010 (was even). Now the survey shows R+6. If its only even Romney will win big.

    • wmart
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This just seems too good to be true…I want to believe this so badly but I can’t. If that turns out to be the case, then Obama will concede by 11PM EST.

      • Anonymous Conservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

        If that turns out to be the case, then Obama will concede by 9PM EST. There, I fixed it for you.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      can anyone explain this? So my take is RAS does this poll and this poll is purley to judge what he believes to be the make up of the electorate tomorrow…so R+6 (which would be as historic as Obama’s 2008)

      Yet in his national polling in which he is BLASTED as being a right wing, republican leaning pollster….he weights his results at D+2 – D+4


  24. SR
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Repub Plus 5.8!!

    • Anonymous Conservative
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What’s interesting is that Rasmussen is not using that party ID in his national poll weighting, but rather a very conservative D+2. It’s almost like he can’t believe his own party ID numbers, so he is hedging his bets. Maybe he is just playing “Price is Right” with the other pollsters, trying to simply be the closest without going over.

  25. Jeni
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup to show Romney leading Obama 49-48

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not as good as I hoped but about what I figured.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      unfortunaterly what i called last night…I figured Ras would have Obam up 1. At least they are tied there. Looks like all except for Pew decided to go for the punt and call it even going into election.

      What still makes no sense is how Ras and Gallup can run their polls at R+ splits or a small small D+ and show it this close. Argh i want a blowout, I want a margin to protect from “Romney cheated, supressed, stole, is a racist” BS.

      • Barf
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

        Romney is up 1 with Rasmussen. What rock have you been under?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: