Dead Heat in Ohio: 49 to 49 — Rasmussen

You can’t get any closer than that. The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Mitt Romney and President Obama deadlocked at 49 a piece in Ohio.  Did Obama cannibalize his voters? Is Romney’s margin with Independents enough to win the day? We’ll find out tomorrow but for now it’s anyone’s ballgame in Ohio:

The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day. The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May. Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters. Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group. Helping to explain the closeness of the race here is that the candidates run nearly even when Ohio voters are asked whom they trust more in several key policy areas. Romney has a three-point edge over the president in voter trust when it comes to the economy, a two-point lead in the area of job creation and is ahead by one point with regards to energy policy. But Ohio voters trust Obama more by four points when it comes to housing issues and by two points in the area of national security. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on November 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 1

88 Comments

  1. Barf
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am an Evangelical. We didn’t like McCain but loved Palin. We are coming out in force tomorrow due to Obama’s blatant support of gay marriage and unfettered abortion. The bog kicker is how he had treated Israel. I can’t wait to vote RR here in Virginia.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      O isn’t just for abortion, he’s totally fine with partial birth abortions, too. I didn’t even know such a thing existed until a few weeks ago. I am still horrified such a thing exists and that anyone in their right mind could support blatant murder.
      ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        Brittany, I am always happy to see a woman who hates partial birth abortion, as I do.. All abortion is blantant murder

    • jeff
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I hope son I really hope so. We cant afford 4 more years. Im thinking of my childs future.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Treating Israel like just another country, and not the 51st state (WTF has Israel EVER done for us but sink the Liberty and gin up Lavon Affairs?) is one of the few things I rate highly for 0bama.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

        When Republicans start pegging AMERICAN immigration policy to ISRAELI immigration policy, and American Jews are half as conservative vis-a-vis America’s demographic future as they are about Israel’s, then I’ll consider supporting Israel a good move. Until then, more stick, less carrot.

  2. Aaron
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This will be the “CHICK FIL A ELECTION” a ground swell of millions and millions standing up to take the country back from the progressives.

    • Jeni
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You know, I was hoping someone would start a “Vote and then go get a Chick-Fil-A” campaign!

      • jmar
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

        I’m in Jeni. Maybe we can post pictures of our receipts?

  3. zang
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney’s internal polls show him up 1 in Ohio, even in PA and WI. To be taken with a grain of salt…

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228359/Romney-campaign-internal-polling-puts-Republican-nominee-point-ahead-Ohio.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah but they make decisions based on these.. Id love to peek inside all of their data and crosstabs.. 🙂 Fascinating!

    • MCRICHIE
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i watch his his politica director he seemed 100% certain of the outcome, i havn’t seen him on tv before as this was his first interview did anbody see this interview ?

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So the Daily Mail in the UK gets the news. How?

      • zang
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

        The frightening thing is the UK newspapers often have more information about what is happening in the US than our own MSM.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

        The Daily Mail but moreso the Telegraph seem to get stories that rarely run in the USA about the USA.

        The Daily Mail is more like the NY Post though

      • Svigor
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

        Zang nailed it. AFAIK, 1: British press lives up to the stereotype of the press (which the American media likes to propagate in front of the camera, but undermine otherwise) than the American press; combative newshounds. 2: It’s often the case that one can find more honest news about one’s country in the foreign press than domestic; less incentive to lie for vested interests.

    • Publius
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here is additional evidence in favor.
      http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332588/romney-narrowly-holding-bellwether-ohio-county-nh-towns

      I really like David Paleologos from his appearances on Fox. He was utterly calm, dispassionate , unswayed by the anchor’s preferences and informative in an essentialzing manner. His facts were often original to him and there was no clutter, with an almost minimalist style. Gives the above suffolk poll greater credence in my view.

  4. Aaron S.
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Watching the Fairfax rally right now. I don’t watch Obama’s rally coverage—-do they have that kind of enthusiasm? I could be wrong, it could be staged, but it really seems organic, that excitement there. They won’t even let him speak, they’re going so nuts. Are they doing that for Obama?

    • Jeni
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can’t really tolerate Obama’s rallies for more than a minute, but I would say the feeling is completely different. Cheering and applause seem more obligatory and less organic. BTW, did you catch Ann saying there were as many people outside as inside!

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well I can tell you the crowd sizes for O events have been so far behind 08, now they are even behind Kerry’s 04 sizing.. Its just a tea leaf… But it should give pause to them that’s for sure..

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        There was one venue that McCain went to in 2008 and Obama just went to. McCain drew in 1200 or so more people in 2008 in the exact same venue than Obama did just a couple days ago. They can only draw big crowds when they have free concerts by huge stars like Katy Perry.
        ~ Brittany

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A lot of people are coming from DC and MD. Just like the NH rally, a lot of people came from ME and MA. This is about optics.

  5. Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In regards to the comments about Dick Morris I agree he is over confident at times but did you hear what Megyn said at the end of the. He has almost a perfect record except for some senate calls he missed. Right on ever presidential race.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I usually write Dick off, but hey him and Barone are saying the same.. Barone is a straight shooter, so is Allen, so hey take it for what you will.. I think the double down today on the predictions are the Party ID numbers.. If Ras is EVEN CLOSE, its way over..

      • Fred S
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

        Don’t forget Karl Rove either. He was right on 2008.

  6. Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    IBD/TIPP Presidential Daily Tracking Poll
    IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
    Daily Tracking Poll

    Final results will be posted Nov. 5 at 11:00 PM (PST)
    Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz2BNrtyjIm

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nov 3-5 .. Expect them to show a O lead maybe +1 or +2.. All depends on the XTabs.. But people at this point, polls are pointless, they all are lurching towards the CYA mode.. Only poll that matters is tomorrow 🙂

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      45% one day out, with 7.3% undecideds? Wow. Ruh rho.

      • Dan
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

        That was the Oct 28 result I think. So tomorrow must be the first in a while and the last.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

        Just saw it–correct.

  7. Interested Party
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why didn’t O do PA? If its really tied, one visit to the Philly suburbs may have done it. PS, if I’m him and I think I’ve lost, I’d go directly to NYC and get in the middle of the relief efforts. You might as well try to spin your legacy at this point.

    • Fred S
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Many in PA hate Obama. Remember, they went for Hillary in 2008 and the Clintons are more popular there. Obama can only win in Philly and inner-city Pittsburgh, would not be well received anywhere else.

  8. Brian
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    When reviewing Cuyahoga county the county is politically static in nature – My county numbers for the big dem counties

    Cuyahoga 67-32 Obama
    Franklin 57-42 Obama
    Hamilton Romney 51-49
    Lorain 56-43 Obama
    Summit 56-43 Obama
    Mahoning 62-36 Obama

    IF Obama nails these targets which are alligned with 2008, 2004, 2000, –it’s a 3 point Obama win.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How do you come up with “Targets aligned with 08 04 and 00 when you are only showing the O data, Dude, seriously, please comment with some statistics not random numbers.. You keep ignoring the topic of this thread.. RAS says its +6.. Do you agree if its even +1 O’s toast? I agree if its D+2 its going to be tight… Lets get real.. I am no R lover and no O lover im a true I..

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Your Franklin, Mahoning, Summit, and Lorain margins are way too high and your Hamilton margin is way too low. What are you basing these numbers on?

      I’d say R by 2%.

      We will know tomorrow night around 11 PM, I’d say. This won’t go on all night.

    • Tom
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Cuyahoga might be ‘static” in nature but they have over 200,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008. They will not produce the vote margin to make up for the rest of the state. Also, I’m here in Montgomery County (Dayton) and obama is doing much worse than in 2008. If Romney wins Tuesday vote by more than 4% he will win Ohio (that would be about 175,000 votes).

  9. exe
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Does anyone know what the protocol is for release of Exit Polls? Is that only after the polls have closed? I seem to remember reporting on exit polls at very high levels during the 2004 & 2008 elections. I guess my bottom line question is, when will we know the actual RDI splits?

    • MassLiberty
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Virginia closes polls at 7PM. If you see the splits there overperforming, you will have your answer. If they call Virginia and NH quickly for Romney. It’s over.

    • AC
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good question. I think that they will start talking about the exit polls in each state as soon as the polls close for that state. Becomes a problem when the state stretches across two time zones. Florida had that issue in 2000. I am not sure if today Florida closes all polls at the same hour.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My guess is that everyone in the campaigns and the media will know the RDI splits by about 3-4 PM tomorrow. That will give the answer to this election. Whether they let anyone else know or leak it is another matter.

  10. Brian
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m gay so I can’t support any candidate who is against equal protection. That’s a big deal here.

    Gay marriage isn’t a player here with indie voters.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Brian I’m in CA and have a TON of Gay friends, lots of whom are all executives and its about a 60/40 split to Romney. I get your pain, but I hate to say it, but Equal protection isn’t the focus here, the Economy is, and quite frankly, when a candidate avoids talking about his record, its trouble. Don’t try to post random stats around here, it wont work, there is some really brilliant folks on here, give them the respect of data arguments to your point. my .02. Good luck tomorrow.

      • Freddy
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

        I live in a pretty non-gay suburb, fairly upscale neighborhood. The street has homes from about $600K to $1.6m on one side and $2 to $6 m on the rich side. The first Romney-Ryan sign on the street were two gay guys. They have two signs. Their sign motivated me to get one ($15). I think I was the third or fourth on the street.

        They keep their yard and house in pristine condition, my yard should look so good. LOL! Most of these issues should be dealt on a local or statewide basis. Obama’s actions in the ME and his not so stealth support of the Muslim Brotherhood should be more troubling for gay people. Gays and daughters who act too western are not treated well in Islamic countries. Iran will and does hang gay people.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The republican candidate for mayor of san diego is gay.

    • ElmerF
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN HIIBUZZ.ORG. One of the best political sites around and run by Kevin, who is gay.

      • ElmerF
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

        Woops, web address is hillbuzz.org. My bad spelling.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Equal protection” is leftist prestidigitation. Homosexuals have had equal protection from day one. They don’t want equal protection, they want to change marriage into something it’s not. Get your own word for homosexuals cohabiting, “marriage” is already taken.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

        Btw, everyone who wants to think about this utterly boring, fringe issue that leftist radicals have been thrusting into our faces (and getting the smackdown handed to them by real Americans – when they’re given a chance to vote the matter – over and over and over) for the last few years, look into how many homosexuals are actually bothering to get married in the states where it’s legal. Homosexuals don’t even care about “homosexual marriage.”

  11. Aaron
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That interview was hilarious! Not only was Dick confident as can be. He pointed out that Axelrod used to be his employee, and when Megyn pointed out the senate races he said so I missed 3 races by 1 point sue me LOL.

  12. John
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The contrast and overall demeaner of the two candidates in their closing rallies is stark. Romney is enthusiastic, upbeat, focus on what he WILL do. Obama looks cranky, upset (very in line with his “revenge” remark), and never smiles. His theme seems to only be scare tactics about going back to the Bush era. Just from appearances Obama knows he is loosing and Romney knows he is ahead.

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed. Ann’s excitement is very telling, too. I don’t think Mitt and Ann are that good of actors – they know they are going to win.
      ~ Brittany

  13. Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Funny MSNBC already has Romney winning.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/early-election-results-via-msnbc-148500.html

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wait a minute. Romney gets 55% of the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral vote? On what planet?
      ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

        It was put up by mistake. Probably experimenting and someone hit the send button.

      • Jeni
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

        Brittany, you beat me to it! 🙂

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “It’s an MSNBC false graphic test… intentionally put out to discourage Republicans. It was GIVEN to left wing Democrat Politico. You will not see THIS type of graphic on the MSNBC tv screen or website on election night. ”
      ~ Brittany

    • Jeni
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Holy cow…did you see the popular vote they projected? 55-43 ROMNEY!

      • Freddy
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

        Weird number because this is what I am expecting. Obam has been the 47% man. I think on election night he is closer to 45% or below. I would not be surprised if O gets 43%.

  14. Brian
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The polling targets are based on averages of the past 3 elections and smoothing in these distriicts for AA makeup here/urban whites.

    These are good estimates. The greatest shift in 2008 was NW ohio. If Obama can minimize his losses here and he will because of the auto bailout. He will be safe.

    • Aaron
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hmmm past 3 elections how about 2010 I think that one slipped through the cracks?

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think R will overperform among whites. That is one of the cracks in the methodology. The plan was a good one, but I’m not quite sure you guys accounted for that. That’s the weird thing. After the first debate, he was a changed man. Did the modeling account for that?

      Also, is Gallup wrong when it gives a self party ID of 39/36/25 RDI with an electoral racial composition similar to 2008? I also think the assumption was that the racial makeup predicted the voter preference makeup in the model, didn’t it?

  15. Brian
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Columbus is a packed house right now. There is a feed on msnbc.

    • Aaron
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah Jay-Z and Bruce, I would go to that rally…

      • CAChris
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

        Not a Jay-Z fan, but I may have gone to listen to Springsteen.. Notice Romney going mostly solo without any acts, other then Kid rock once and hes drawing great crowds.. O without Perry,Springsteen or JayZ last week had crowds smaller then Mccain.. Interesting.. More Tea Leaves… We shall see!

    • John
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a third of the folks at Obama rallies are Republicans but just there for the free show. Springsteen tickets run $100 otherwise 🙂

      • Aaron
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

        +1

  16. Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney Narrowly Holding Bellwether Ohio County, N.H. Towns

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332588/romney-narrowly-holding-bellwether-ohio-county-nh-towns

    Exclusive: Romney internal polls put him OH+1, NH+3, IA+2, down in NV, tied in WI & PA

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228359/Romney-campaign-internal-polling-puts-Republican-nominee-point-ahead-Ohio.html?ito=feeds-

    • Jan
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Exclusive: Romney internal polls put him OH+1, NH+3, IA+2, down in NV, tied in WI & PA dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…—
      Toby Harnden (@tobyharnden)”

      Well, I must say the reflects just about perfectly my feel of the race right now.
      A pretty relatively solid lead in NH makes sense seeing the surge of independents to Romney again. Iowa is relatively close, but is on Romney’s side seeing the EV en and RV developments. Ohio will be less easy for a republican than normally is the case due to the negative ad wave we’ve seen early and the auto bailout stuff. Nevada is an uphill battle, but possible is turnouts develop well and PA and WI seem true toss ups. All other battlegrounds ought to be no problem.

  17. Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some interesting bellwether county polling from Suffolk & David Paleologos in NH & OH! Check it out. Looks good for mitt in NH & OH. He looks at Lake County, OH and Epping & Milford, NH!

    http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/54254.html

  18. Brian
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You can’t use off year and presidential eleciton data and combine them. It doesn’t work.

    The aggregate data shows Obama at 3.0. He won’t win by less then 2 points. That’s a solid projection.

    • CAChris
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We need the data you are talking about? RCP?? I told you, no wild projections on fairy dust..

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Voting is way down in Cayahoga county.

      You either believe the story underlying the polls, or don’t.

      You choice.

      If you want to tell me why actual numbers (not projections) are right or wrong or good or bad, I’m ready to listen.

      You just saying so – can’t just go by that.

  19. John
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So now we all know the Redskins rule predicting a Romney victory tomorrow but there is also this fact…In the past 152 years no Republican presidential candidate has lost an election held on Nov 6th. The winners are:

    Lincoln (1860)
    Harrison (1888)
    McKinley (1900)
    Hoover (1928)
    Eisenhower (1956)
    Reagan (1984)
    Romney (2012)?????

    I figure this is just as scientific as many of the polls 🙂

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/The-Streak-Republicans-Have-Won-Every-November-6th-Presidential-Election-Since-1860

  20. Dane Baker
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hope to hear back from Brian and NP on Wednesday after Romney/Ryan are declared winners, OR will you be silent listeners?

  21. Bryan
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s a question about polls. The latest Gravis poll has O+1. It’s here: http://gravismarketing.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/gravis-marketing-oh-poll-results-nov-51.pdf

    They state that they weight their polls by demographics. So, in question 8, where they list the race the respondents identify themselves as, are those the RAW percentages of that poll, or are those the percentages to which the pollster is weighting the poll? If the former, then we really don’t know to what makeup Gravis has weighted his responses. If the latter, then Romney is in great shape. White respondents: 76%; actual white population (83.6%); Whites who voted in 2008 (83%); Black respondents: 13%; actual Black population (12.4%) blacks who voted in 2008 (11%).

    If Gravis scaled back the Black responses to the poll to match their population percentage or even 2008 turnout, then that’s one thing. But if Obama is up by one point in a poll where the responses of Black respondents are weighted to 13% of the poll sample, then Romney has got to be looking to be in great shape, No?

    • Bryan
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The above relates to Ohio, by the way.

    • Ta111
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And the reason that it is skewed is because they are weighting the demos based upon 2008. Again, there is no way in hell that the youth and minorities will make up as much of a percentage as in 2008. Because the demos are off that makes the ID off. Very simple really.

  22. jeff
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dont believe the leaked internal polling from the Romney campaign. Its just a ploy to keep the faithful motivated. The true numbers probably show Romney ahead by 3 or 4 in ohio and very slightly ahead in PA and WI.Thats just my gut feeling.

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree. Does to make sense to release that, unless it is for the purpose you mention.

  23. Fred S
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Does anybody have the final EV stats in Ohio? I looked at Cuyahoga County and those amounts have not been posted yet, although they closed at 2pm. They normally update a couple of hours after the polls close.

  24. It
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve been looking everywhere for them as well. Believe rove as of Saturday night had 576k d and 492 r but rove also said Sunday is typically a very good day for dems. I figure if the delta stays at 150k, mitt wins Ohio easily.

  25. C-Bus GOP
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looking good in Ohio –

    http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/In-person-early-voting-numbers-down-from-2008-in-Cuyahoga-County

    • Fred S
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree, C-bus. I took a look at Cuyahoga voter registration. Democratic, Non-partisan registrations are down about 225k, Repubs are up 35k. This is a pretty big swing, could net to over 100k less votes for Obama.
      Any indications on the final statewide EV?

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The fact that most of the EVs occured early in Cuyahoga implies that it was the high propensity voters, ready to go for the Ds, that voted first. Implies cannibalism.

  26. Interested Party
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Some RCP info to think about. If we look at the RCP averages for the swing states, if the averages are off by around 2.5-3 he gets everything but PA, MN, and MI. If they are off by 4 he gets most of those as well.

    RCP does not give % undecideds in the averages. It also does not give the MOE of the averages. In a supposedly close election like this one, these data would be very helpful.

    I’m sticking to my mini-1980 scenario. 305-310 EV, 51.5-47.5 R. Fundamentals matter, even though the psyops are going strong.

    Has O got the talk? Probably not, since their narrative still implies a close win, and team O cannot think differently.

    This will surprise the Left as much as the first debate.

  27. Posted November 5, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Oh baby!

    Statistical Analysis: Cuyahoga Early Vote Numbers Show Romney Cutting Obama Lead in ENTIRE STATE by 26% http://bit.ly/PzqyFk

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