Republicans Early Voting Strong in Colorado — David Ramos

Another dispatch from reader David Ramos:

Final totals on early voting in Colorado from the Secretary of State’s office:

Total ballots cast – 1,640,023
Total Republican voters – 605,586
Total Democratic voters – 567,569
Total Unaffiliated (Independent) voters – 449,720
Total third party voters – 17,148

In the swing counties

Arapahoe County – Republicans lead by 1,327
Jefferson County – Republicans lead by 6,602
Larimer County – Republicans lead by 7,004

In the strong Democratic counties

Denver – Democrats lead by 68,736
Boulder – Democrats lead by 11,488
Adams – Democrats lead by 11,416
Pueblo – Democrats lead by 10,702

In the strong Republican counties

El Paso – Republicans lead by 45,204
Douglas – Republicans lead by 39,166
Mesa – Republicans lead by 14,183
Weld – Republicans lead by 12,600

What the numbers mean:

The Democrats – Their GOTV effort need to run up their totals in their strong counties. If there’s a surprise in the EV numbers, it’s from Boulder County. In the state, Boulder is commonly referred to as the “People’s Republic of Boulder.” For Democrats to be ahead only by 11,488, it may be a sign the more extreme elements of the Democrat party are disappointed with Obama.

The Republicans – If they’ve saved their turnout for Election Day, they need to run up their totals in El Paso County – we’re talking at least a 65-35 split. The best margin of victory ever was Bush 43 in 2004 where he won El Paso County 75-25. Douglas County has a strong Libertarian bent, but are reliably Republican in their voting pattern.

The Unaffiliateds (Independents) – They have the key to victory. It would be safe to assume unaffiliateds in strong Democratic areas to identify and vote closer to the Democratic side, and unaffiliateds in strong Republican areas to identify and vote closer to the Republican side. The unaffiliated voter bloc to watch will be in the swing counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer.

Total unaffiliated (independent) early voters – swing counties

Arapahoe – 48,625
Jefferson – 60,600
Larimer – 37,485

If they split along the same percentages as the R/D pairing in these counties, this is what you would see:

Arapahoe – 24,546 voted Republican
Jefferson – 31,666 voted Republican
Larimer – 20,381 voted Republican

The Republican lean among unaffiliated voters in these three swing counties is averaging 52-48 in favor of Romney.

Based on these numbers, the early voting pattern is showing Romney is doing what he needs to do to carry Colorado: mind the gap – especially in the swing counties, lead among independent voters, and increase his margin in solid Republican areas.  Please note these totals only reflect those ballots cast on voting machines at EV sites. Mail-in and absentee ballots are counted on election night.  Hope this gives a better view of how Colorado stands heading into election day.

— David Ramos

164 Comments

  1. David
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This looks good. Thanks for the breakdown.

  2. Pete
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    COL is a great get.

    Also, fear has overtaken the left. The trolls are out in force today.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m the real Peter!

      • Pete
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        Lol! I’m Pete and been here way too long to worry about being confused with MM’s favorite target. .

  3. jas
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Pew just released a poll with Obama up 3 nationally. He has finally gotten to 50. I guess it’s over.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/04/pew-romney-holds-turnout-edge-ahead-of-vote

      ‘Pew’s head-to-head number has Obama leading Romney by 3 points, 48-45. Of course, this shows Obama underperforming, as Democrats have a 4 point edge in the sample. If Democrats only have a 5 point edge among all registered voters, its hard to see how the actual voting electorate will give Democrats a 4 point edge, given the higher propensity of Republicans to vote.

      Oddly, Pew takes the 4% undecideds and splits them evenly between the two candidates. This allows the to broadcast a 50-47 Obama lead, hitting the critical 50% threshold that has eluded Obama in most polling this year. It is highly unlikely, though, that undecideds break evenly.’

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Earlier today I took a quick look at the internals, and Pew seemed to have a very high non-white vote.

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Among Likely Voters: Women 54%, Men 46%. 2008: 53-47.
      Among Non-Latino Whites: Romney 54, Obama 39. I don’t think so.
      To get right on top of 50-47 requires this D/R/I split nationally among likely voters: .494/.428/.077. I don’t think so.
      To get 49.51 to 47.49 requires this D/R/I split: .488/.439/.077
      A minimum D+5 electorate, a median D+6.6 electorate.

  4. rochierich
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    we love our liberal trolls

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter P was the original.

      • Pete
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        Nah. I think I was here before y’all. Lol.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        Pete, you were? I’m crushed!

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He was the original irritating troll. U, not so much.

  5. Tom
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    These numbers from CO are simply indicative of the state of the race nationally. Dems can bury their collective head in the sand and keep trumpeting nate silver’s 1,000,000,000,000% chance of obama winning, it simply isn’t going to be enough to save obama from a huge loss. Mini-landslide for Romney. Mitt-Mentum

  6. lookitcouldhappen
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is good news!!!!

  7. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    good news … and last I checked weather looks good for voting on Tuesday. Let’s pray CO winds up in R column.

  8. AJ
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    i had been following the co early voting numbers. put in a huge bet on romney to win colorado when the site i used had his as a huge underdog! cha-ching. im gunna make it rain on Wed.

  9. Interested Party
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s interesting watching the commentators predict. Most are staying with the RCP average and map. What did Pat Cadell say today–movement to R over the past 24 hours?

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am hoping that preferences shift back to Romney post Sandy.

  10. billyboy
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    hey, peter good to see you back. I am a BIG Romney fan but dont just think every poll is incorrect. I do think the entire election depends on white turnout. If it is 74.5% or more of the entire vote Romney wins, if not Obama wins

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Still dealing with Sandy!

      • Kardinal11
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Good luck. Be safe

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

        Are you, Peter? No kidding, I hope things work out for you.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The polls are not “incorrect”. They are right.

      If Obama gets close to his 2008 turnout advantage, he probably wins. Nobody on the Right disputes that.

      It’s just that absolutely nothing, from partisan ID to early voting to enthusiasm gap, suggests Obama will get anything like a 2008 turnout.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

        +1000

        Bingo.

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well that’s what Pew projected today.

  11. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    But PPP said Obama was up a zillion points with a D+infinity sample so, you know, all is lost………….

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PPP results same as Pew, and Pew has one of the best records in the business. But we’ll find out soon enough.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Tied with your Fav.

  12. Tedley
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More good news. Just watched Gen Clarke – lib troll – saying pretty much that the libs are going to the courts to sue about everything. If you think you’re winning – you don’t need a court.

    • Kevin
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ted,

      The left always pulls their Alinsky tactics of created victims that got to the polling center late, only to be turned as the polling center closed down. There’s usually anywhere from 100 to 500 of these “disenfranchised voters”, and they just happen to find an ACLU lawyer, who just happen to be in the neighborhood, who just happen to find a left leaning Judge, who just happens to say, “by my order, you shall keep the polling center open for another “x” number of hours.

      Watch for this on Election Night in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Orlando, and Miami.

  13. Fred S
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Unrelated to Colorado, but my wife just told me that Pat Caddell (a Dem pollster) just stated on Fox that he sensed the momentum has shifted to Romney “in the last 24 hours”. Doug Schoen was also on the segment, he felt race was dead even with slight lean to Obama.
    Could anyone confirm this and what he saw to come to this conclusion.

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I saw and commented on last thread. He was referring to 1976 when Ford had a +1 on Carter the Sunday before election on Gallup. Caddell said the momentum shifted Sunday and Monday to Carter as people realized that they didn’t want 4 additional years of the same. They realized they wanted change. Caddell said if they had one more day the momentum would have given Carter 331 EV’s instead of whatever he ended up with (I am not sure). He said it was similar to what he is seeing in the last 24 hours.

    • live_free290248
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mr. Caddell is a Republican. It would be like calling Dick Morris or Dr. Krauthammer a Democrat. So, you have to take what they say with a grain of salt.

      • petep
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

        No. He is disenchanted Democrat, one of millions, many who are now I or R, but who felt the Dems are not what they once were.

      • Fred S
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        No, he is a Democrat – ran the McGovern campaign in 1972>

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

        He’s actually a lifelong Democrat whose appalled at the metastasizing leftist cancer affecting both the modern Democratic Party and their lapdog mainstream media.
        But, whatever.

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

        Yep, Democrat. He worked Carter in 1976 and 1980. Someone here said he was the one to break the news to Carter in 1980 that he was losing,

  14. bks
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    YouGov final poll: Obama +2 (48.5-46.5)
    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/11/04/yougov-state-polls-point-narrow-obama-victory/

    –bks

    • Tedley
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sorry, but what a load of cra…..

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

        How so?

        –bks

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      um D+6…

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

        Yes I would say this qualifies for the Trashcan.

    • Tedley
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Look at the map. Really? The dems aren’t even claiming it’s close in FL or VA. They’ve gone into their “but we have OH in the bag” mode for more than a week. I’m sure Keith could rung specific numbers, but that is just silly on it’s face.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

        Have you looked at the recent polls in Virginia? O+1, O+6, O+2, O+5, O+3, R+1, O+1, O+2, O+3
        http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama
        Even if they’re D-skewed, as you claim, it’s still a darn close contest! Polls close in VA in 50 hours.

        –bks

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

        I forget which Obama surrogate it was last week, but they said that Ohio IS their firewall. I took that as a concession on Florida and Virginia. Obama has only one path to election. Romney doesn’t need Ohio if he takes PA or others.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    • Zang
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Any one of these internet polls should be disregarded because they are unproven and there is selection bias – people have to volunteer to be on an internet panel. And I’d suspect that internet polls may leave out the elderly who lean to Romney.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        I don’t buy internet polls either. There is just so many issues.

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      BKS – did happen to see Obama’s approval rating on that site? Approve :46% Disapprove: 50% #FAIL

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    • Kevin
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You have to try better than that bks.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

        Sample size of YouGov poll 36,472. (Not a typo.)

        –bks

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Because, among other reasons, this very poll says he’s down by 10 among independents after winning them by 8 last time,
      And because this poll has a D+6 national sample…in 2008 it was D+7, and there’s no reason to believe the national turnout will be anything like 2008.
      Sorry.

  15. lookitcouldhappen
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    and for a laugh….

    • Tedley
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Beautiful – but the caption left our what Bamster must have been muttering. “Can we keep this cuvered up til Ramadon?”

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nap time.

  16. Svigor
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OT, but this Benghazi thing is totally nuts. I can’t believe this administration dithered for 6 hours while terrorists killed our ambassador, his aide, and two SEALs. Everybody’s talking about how far away asset x was, how far away asset y was, etc. But why would you keep an embassy in Libya if your closest response assets were more than 6 hours away? If the embassy wasn’t secure, which it clearly wasn’t? It’s an argument between whether the administration is criminally incompetent, or criminally negligent.

    Then we find out that the administration didn’t even call the CSG, which is standard procedure, and might’ve saved these men. The more we read about what went on at Benghazi, the more it sounds like they were deliberately thrown to the wolves.

    And to top it all off, the president has stonewalled for weeks leading into the election, and the press won’t push the issue; they’re effectively running cover for their boy.

    And to add even more insult to injury, Condi Rice went on national television on October 25th and threw Romney under the bus to save 0bama, and I haven’t heard a peep from Republicans because she’s apparently untouchable because of the color of her skin.

    Absolutely flabbergasting.

  17. Matt
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama has over 20k at his rally in Florida, near Miami. I still think Florida is going Romney. Obama has been able so pull in some big crowds but they are normally in areas, or close to areas, that are HEAVILY democratic (e.g. Virginia rally was just outside of D.C., Wisconsin rally in Milwaukee (very liberal itself and 1.5hrs north of Chicago), etc.). Because of that, it’s hard to gauge democrat enthusiasm. It will be interesting to see how many show up for Mitt’s rally in Penn tonight.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, to see Katy

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      To see Katy Perry,Dave Matthews,Bruce Springsteen for free…sure you will get big crowds…

      • Blue Dog Dem
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        Agree. John Kerry had 90K crowd in Madison, WI in 2004.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They’re busing people in and paying some union people $ to be their. Little birdy told me. The small crowds compared to Romney have freaked them out, so they invested some money to have a nice turnout.

      • petep
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

        Astroturf rallies, that is all, especially since that disaster in Columbus, Oh.

  18. billyboy
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Caddell basicly said, slight momentum toward Romney but doesnt know if it is 1980 type momentum or 2004. He wants to see Obamas approval rating tomorrow then he will predict.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Now that is interesting.

      If we were right about the polls accidentally or deliberately favouring Obama, this “late swing in the last days” would be the obvious way for the pollsters to cover their backsides if they thought Romney would really win.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

        I thought the “Oh look, there’s a *sudden* swing towards Romney!” would have started a week ago to cover their butts. I’m shocked it still hasn’t really happened this close to Election Day.
        ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

        Brittany I have to admire you, you have more faith than Abraham.

  19. Tom
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Been going through my spreadsheets(s) for this election and I am going to tell you it isn’t pretty for obama. Final result: Romney 374 – obama 164. A number of huge surprises. Mitt-Mentum

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you are going to imagine ponies, why not 538 for Romney?

      • AJ
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

        what about the extra 7 states that obama once referenced? Would that get romney over 600?

      • docsazman
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        Because California and New York are lost causes.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m thinking more like 300-320 range. 374 is enormous as much as I would like it!
      ~ Brittany

  20. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PEW POLL IS WRONG – DEM +6 (NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN)

    Obama Gains Edge in Campaign’s Final Days Obama 50% Romney 47%(PEW LV 0 48% R 45%; D+6; Female+8)

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama total movement from Pew was changing his party ID from R + 4 to D + 6 in one month. Can’t you just feel the enthusiasm (cough). Just like 08

    • Pete
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly a D+ 6 means we should have been seeing MOE races in MO and IN. Even AZ should be in play.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

        And a D+6 national sample should mean the Democrats take back the House of Representatives, and nobody, except maybe for Pelosi, is that delusional

    • JGS
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      See page 10 of Pew’s poll from about a month ago:

      http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-8-12%20Political%20Release.pdf

      Party ID breakdown of respondents was 392 R (36%), 361 D (33%), 328 I (30%), so R+3 — and he ended up with Romney +4.

      Now, however, in page 10 of the Pew poll released today, we get the following party ID breakdown of respondents — 843 R (32%), 1007 D (38%), 761 I (29%), or D+6. And lo and behold, we get Obama +3.

      Pew moved the party ID by a full 9 POINTS in favor of the Democrats in less than one month’s time, and moved the needle on the result by 7 points.

  21. Kyle
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I need a link to read the Caddell momentum article please..

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No article (that I know of)….he was on Fox with M. Kelly.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The video may show up on realclearpolitics.com in the videos section.

  22. John
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like O’s “Vote for Revenge” remark is really energizing his base. Alisky would be so proud of his pupil. Heaven help this country if he wins – Yikes!

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is energising a base, just the wrong one. That statement will cost him dearly.

    • Tom
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Even if it energized his base, it doesn’t matter. It offended everyone else and he is being repudiated. Mitt-Mentum

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It was good for an ad but it was a nothing statement in my opinion. I say that because the media doesn’t pick up the baton with Obama… ever. They spent two days on binders, 4 days on Big Bird and a month on 47%.
      They spent a day on “didn’t build that”, only because of the Convention. They ignore Libya – which I think is less than a scandal but should have taken a point of support away – and pretend Obama is doing so much for Sandy victims, so it was no surprise to me that they have treated ‘revenge’ as something that never happened.

  23. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You all remind me of Dems back in 2004. Websites full of arguments of how if you adjusted X or Y polls really showed Bush losing.

    I just hope after Obama wins we can all agree on how to read polls. Here’s a great start, specially for those that claim state polls are biased:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/?google_editors_picks=true

    • Pete
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      When Obama loses what will you say?

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        I will disappear into the night and claim I was for Romney from the start!

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

        Oh Lord, let’s please not start the “And when you lose, will you eat crow” stuff….
        ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

        LOL that was a good one Peter. 😉
        ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

        But fab4gal, that’s the fun part!

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        Peter….now that is what I expect from a professional lib troll. Thank you!

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Actually the Dems remind me alot of the Repubs in 2008. When Obama was pushing into Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, everyone was claiming “no, no, it’s all a head fake! He’s just going there because he’s losing in Virginia and Florida! It’s all a desperate grab! No chance of him winning here!”

      And look what happened.

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        I doubt there are many here who actually didn’t believe Obama would kill McCain in 2008. I knew it then just like I can see now that this could be very very interesting Tuesday. I honestly say I don’t know for sure who will win…but I can tell you I haven’t felt this sure since my 1st time voting in 1988.

    • Tedley
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Really? After about 37 gigabite of proof that Nate”s model is TOTALLY dependent on the state polls not have a bias – and Nate publically worrying that they might be – and proof here that they are – you think that this kind of troll behavior is going to make anyone nervious?

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Also, 2004 was a historically high R base turnout. An even split. No question Kerry supporters thought at any “normal” election the Dems would win.

      There is ZERO chance of a historically high D turnout in 2012, as evidenced by the poor early voting figures for the Democrats.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

        I just told my mother this and she countered that with all the dead people voting it could very well be as big a turnout for Dems as 2008. Sigh…
        ~ Brittany

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

        Well yes Democrats do get the graveyeard vote, but lets not forget in OHIO for example, a lot of people that were in the graveyard vote have been removed from the voting rolls. Unlike in 2008!

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Problem with that analogy is that unlike 2004, economic election fundamentals are dead against Obama.

      Most models based solely on economic fundamentals give R a solid win. Also, if you remember 2004 well, there was no expansion of the map at the end like this year and like in 2008. Thirdly, Bush ran on his foreign policy record, while Kerry ran on his foreign policy experience. The economy at the time was OK. Now we can all agree that it sucks.

      Team O decided very early to run a psyops, momentum, turnout, and registration based “technical” election. They decided very early that they would lose if they ran on their record (how true for the 5 minutes of the first debate spent on O Care–they almost completely lost it there). The plan was to prime their partisans with red meat like the war on women, depress indy vote for R with the rich man attack, and depress R turnout with bad looking polls and inevitability. They out their total faith and trust in mathematical models of partisan voter intent and location.

      It’s never been done, and I don’t think it will work.

      Partisanship aside for a minute, isn’t the reason you run for re-election is to be judged on your record? Shouldn’t the people know exactly what you did, and judge you on that? If we keep going down this path of technical elections (which we will if O would win), we will never vote on what is important, and pols will feel even less accountable. The people will become even more cynical and disappointed. That’s bad for us all.

      Guys like Barone represent the old school, where fundamentals matter. Team O represents the Moneyball take on elections. This isn’t baseball–it’s our lives and our country.

      If Obama ran on OCare and the stimulus and won–I’d accept that. But the guy ran a cynical election. He’s a disappointment, if only for that. I would like to think Americans are a smarter bunch than that. I think they are, and unlike 2004, the incumbent is going down. He should, and good riddance.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        This is where I see it.

        Economics are dreadful for Obama and his opponent is trusted more on it than him. Most people feel the country is on the wrong track and are at least open to looking at someone else.

        The ONLY way an incumbent loses in this situation is if the challenger is even worse than him. But Romney is actually more popular than Obama and has better net favourables.

        SO:

        Leading with Indies
        Better crossover tabs (even McCain won here so it cannot be Obama wins now)
        Better net favourables
        Highly unlikely to see a 2008 like turnout.
        Early voting suggesting Dems are well down on 2008

        Just hard to see how Romney loses from here.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Are you a paid Dem operative: seriously? Otherwise, I don’t know why you would want to hang out here. Or is it because the traffic flow is small enough that your comments actually get read?

  24. billyboy
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Peter, back to Nate?????

  25. bks
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    USA Today/Gallup Poll 48-48 Tie in swing states
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/

    –bks

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

      Tied in a poll containing IA, WI, MI, PA, NH, NV and NM hey?

      Geez every Romney supporter would take that every day of the week.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

        It’s a four-point swing to Obama since early October in the same poll.

        –bks

      • trux
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

        Not when Romney was up four in the same poll of the same states two weeks ago. Things feel like they are shifting Obama’s way.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        Except according to Dems, Romney is behind in every single one of those states apart from NC which is “tied”.

        So yeah, being tied in a poll like this definitely shatters that Dem meme.

    • Kevin
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      USA Today always over samples Democrats, their polls have no credibility. Nice try.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

        Did they over-over sample? Four point swing for Obama *and the polling was all done before Sandy*.

        –bks

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ll take that. 49-47 with the enthusiasm vote

  26. WillBest
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Choose your electorate choose your victor. I don’t know about ppp but Survey USA runs RV polls. 95%+ make it threw their LV screen.

  27. NHConservative
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They have been playing this “unannounced” video of Bloomberg going to Rockaway this weekend on Fox. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/new-yorkers-cuss-out-mayor-bloomberg-when-we-gonna-get-some-fcking-help-video/

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow…New Yorkers being rude???? I am shocked! 😉
      ~ Brittany

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

        6 days no food, water or heat. I don’t know many people who’d be too polite about it either. And where is FEMA? Where’s the MSM?

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

        If this was Bush it would be front page news. It angers me that it’s not. Ugh.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        absolutely! the media politicized Katrina on like day 3. This is day 6 and situation looks to be just as bad or worse.

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly. Nearly a week and it’s freezing, no food and water, and people are dying. it is despicable. Who would have ever thought that our largest city is nailed by a tsunami and it doesn’t make the front end of a new cycle. This is outrageous.

      • Jeni
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

        I couldn’t agree with you more. I don’t have a single doubt in my mind that Romney would have won this election in a landslide (although he still may) if the media had done it’s job on any number of things with regards to the Obama administration. It sickens me, and if unchecked for another 4 years, God help us.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The Dems have created the expectation that the government will take care of everybody. The default answer should be “Get your own bottled water.” Instead we expect the government to do everything. If you need help, call your family and friends. After that, pay someone to help you. Only after that should we look to government.

  28. MikeN
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Are the same numbers from 2008 available?

  29. valleyforge
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Early vote is about 67% of the 2008 turnout. With Republicans up 2.4 points so far the Democrats need close to a 5 point margin on Tuesday to win. It’s possible Obama leads with independents or there is a crossover advantage that mitigates this, but if not looks like Colorado is for Romney.

    In 1992 Colorado was one of Perot’s best states. Independents there are once again likely to be fiscally conservative and focused on the economy, so hard to see how Romney does not carry them easily.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would expect that Repubs have an advantage with absentee ballots.

  30. Zang
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Peter,

    Actually, I am quite sick of polls. With the First Amendment, there’s no way to ban them… but it seems like their main function is as psy-ops against the other side and depress turnout. And for those who say polls are never wrong, fat chance. Remember 1996 when polls were predicting a 20 point + win for Clinton? 1992 when John Major was to lose? Polls have been wrong. Statistically, they are more often right than wrong. But they have been wrong.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, I suspect that Obama is behind some of these polls and their assumptions — indirectly, to hide the connection.

  31. LibStan
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any comments about NC EV? 62,7% of 2008 total voters had already cast a ballot, and Party ID is D+16…http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

    • Mass liberty
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Lots of right wing voters in NC that are still registered Dem. not sure why, just is.

    • Adam
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Compare the numbers to 2008, look at the winning margin, and realise that state is 100% not in play.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      last time it was d+24 and it ended up almost tied. Turnout is about the same 2.7M votes.

  32. Jeni
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nate Silver’s latest tweet:

    VERY tight range in today’s national polls: TIE, TIE, Obama +1 , Obama +1, Obama +1, Obama +1, O +2, O +3, O +3, O +3.2.

    • JP
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Looks like things ‘unexpectedly’ tightened just in time for Nate to be able to salvage his reputation within the sacred echo chamber of the NY Times/Wash Po

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      After Romney wins on Tuesday, we’ll have plenty of time to skewer Nate Silver, the Dem pollsters, the Dem websites, the Mainstream Media, the Dem pundits, etc. etc.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What Shane says, he’s being sarcastic.

  33. Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yeah kids i think it’s all over but the crying.

    We can question a poll here or there but come on at some point logic has to kickin and say that the odds ALLof them are wrong national and state wise…this just doesnt seem logical. Cant deny that polls a week or ten days ago showing Romney up now showing ties or Obama leads arent obvious swings toward the incumbent.

    Yeah Obama is not at 50% but he doesnt have to be to win. Clinton never got there in both races.

    I fully expect tomorrows Rasmussen to show Obama up 1 and his state polls in NH, IA, WI and Ohio to show Obama leads. The real death nail is i have this extremely strong gut feeling Gallup will show either a tie or a +1 Romney.

    Call it what you want but the polls did their job and the bandwagon effect i think have caused a few to break to Obama.

    I truly truly want to come late Tuesday nignt and happily proclaim how wrong i was here…but i just dont see it. Logic has kicked in and trying to skew everything back to Romney really is just efforts to kid ourselves that despite the last four years this guy is going to be reelected. To come to terms with the death of America as we know it, we have gone over the hump to a nation now ruled by those who live off the largese of the minority of us that pay for it all.

    • JGS
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Talk about an admission that the polls are intentionally skewed to try to influence voter behavior — “the polls did their job and the bandwagon effect I think have [sic] caused a few to break to Obama.”

      • trux
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

        Pew, Ras and Gallup are not media polls, and they now show a break to Obama.

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      WRONG! Go back to the Dem sites.

    • trux
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree, basically. I invested a lot in this but I am now worn down. Gallup’s new swing state poll has Obama tied, 48-48. Pew has him reaching 50 with leaners included.

      As you said, the public polls did what the media hoped they would and helped reproduce the bandwagon effect and swayed late-deciders to Obama. It’s over.

      • AC
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        From Jay Cost‏@JayCostTWS: The movement in the Pew poll over the last month has been a net of 8 points toward Obama. Essentially all due to a shift from R+5 to D+4.
        From James Pethokoukis‏@JimPethokoukis: O now up in Pew poll 48-45 as his support in Northeast jumps from +9 to +21 #Sandy

      • Kevin
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

        If it’s over then Obama can stop campaigning, right?

    • AC
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The only thing worse than being an Obama supporter, is being an Obama supporter who believes that Obama will win. Stupidity piled on ignorance.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        Been here since the start as republican as one can be, worked in legislative politics for 8 years and other politicsoff and on another 5…i am also a realist. You cannot look at EVERY poll and logically claim they are ALL wrong and try and skew every piece of bad news back to Romney. You are setting up for a massive dissappointment.

        Ras has it tied today…he’s the best hope for republicans to get it right. You really think a tie pop vote is going to turn into ohio virginia pennsylvania ilwa colorado wisconsin and maybe minnesotta? Thats just not common sense.

        Gallup yeah great they shlw Romney up tomorow….they are also, keep in mind, not one of the mlre accurate pollsters. About a 60% accuracy rate on nailing the % rate.

        I am going to vote, my family, i have counseled people i work with to vote and convinced a few who supported obama last time to not vote 🙂 my point is steel yourself to a loss and hope to be surprised. What will make the surprise greater is how much it would prove all these people wrong from media to polls etc.

      • AC
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        If you think that the polls are accurate, then you have missed the ENTIRE point of this website.

      • MikeN
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

        Interesting point, shane, but if you are right, then why is the Obama campaign ending in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio?
        Why aren’t they pushing in Florida and Virginia? Win either of those states, and the election is likely over, yet they are largely absent.

    • JP
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m a little skeptical about a number of points made here, mainly the massive 6 point slide in a gallup poll within the span of a week. I could see a scenario where the popular vote is within 1 in either direction and Obama eeks out a victory by hanging onto Ohio, but that seems rather unlikely to me. I think I’ll wait one more day before coming to terms with the ‘death of america’

      • AC
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

        USAToday Gallup has the race tied among likely voters at 48-48. Works for me — given poll bias and late deciders going to the challenger.

      • JP
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        “Yeah Obama is not at 50% but he doesn’t have to be to win. Clinton never got there in both races”
        lol at the subtle Ross Perot trolling

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

        Dont need ross perot he cost Bush 41 the race. But yoj can easily have obama 49 – romney 48 and gary johnson and others at 3. O nor Romney need 50% to win.

        But god knows obama will see a sliver win as some sort of mandate to raise taxes, kil coal and oil, regulate guns, cut the military, etc

      • AC
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

        Poll bias. Poll bias. Poll bias. Poll bias. That’s the entire point of this website. If you don’t believe this, then go to another website.

      • JP
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

        @shane Yeah you could have that result, but it’s hard to tell who the Ron Paul/Gary Johnson element will take more votes from (most polls have an even Romney/obama split depending on the stat). They certainly won’t be even close to even Perot’s weak 8.5% performance in 1996

      • MikeN
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

        One thing that concerns me, Obama has made a jump in nearly every Gallup poll on Wednesday, but never Romney. It could be some poll workers who work on Tuesday are rigging the numbers, but I am wondering if the Obama camp has some secret weapon to boost preferences instantly for short term period.

    • Kevin
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Call it what you want but the polls did their job and the bandwagon effect i think have caused a few to break to Obama.”

      Tell that to those 23 million Americans that are unemployed or underemployed.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

        Thats the sickening part of these people reelecting obama….how many of these 23 milliin will still be unemployed in four years. How many industries from oil to coal etc will be murdered by Obama 2.0 😦

    • Neil
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This where I am. I’ve enjoyed the site, but it’s getting to the point we’re not even cherry-picking polls anymore. We’re cherry-picking parts of polls. There’s been a late shift towards Obama for whatever reason, and I don’t see it dissipating.

      Before I reach a final conclusion on Romney’s fate, I want to see Gallup’s poll tomorrow, but if it’s anything less than Romney +3, his chances are slim.

      • JGS
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        Since God (aka Nate Silver) says that if Romney wins the national vote by 1%, he has a 70% chance of becoming President, I don’t see how you can say that.

      • trux
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, it’s gone from “don’t believe some polls” to “don’t believe the polls.”

      • Beef
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

        The late shift towards Obama seems entirely correlated with the hurricane. Dumb luck doesn’t even begin to describe the situation.

      • JP
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        I’m not sure that you even have to rely on a theory of widespread poll bias. On their face all of the most recent polls have been a statistical tie with a very (.5%) slight lean toward Obama and his job approval rating has remained below 50%. It will just be a matter of turnout and logistics on a state to state basis, not a cause for celebration, but not a lost cause either

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

        Beef, the USA Today/ Gallup Swing State poll completed before Sandy.

        –bks

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Liar.

    • Blue Dog Dem
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Clinton didn’t reach 50% because he and Repub opponent split the vote with Perot (both times). Apples and oranges.

  34. Joshua Sharf
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Denver is where elections get win and lost. Republicans need 30% in Denver to win statewide.

  35. JP
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The national poll averages have been within a point for the last couple of weeks, I’m pretty skeptical that we’re going to see some sort of Aaron Sorkin-scripted Obama victory from his handling (wearing a jacket and visiting new jersey) of the hurricane even if Christie said ‘good job mr. president’ a couple of times. Turnout is what matters and that ship set sail before the storm even hit, if anything Sandy has confounded the Democrat’s critical get out the vote efforts as evidenced by the drop off in early voters despite increased Republican participation (+108k in ohio).

  36. Posted November 4, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    From the movie Major League set in Ohio

    “well, guess there’s only one thing we can do now….win the FU*KIN’ thing!!!”

    Thats the only and best way to prove everyone wrong.

4 Trackbacks

  1. […] Read the whole story at BattlegroundWatch  […]

  2. […] all the more precarious to his re-election chances.  Our own David Ramos has done an amazing job breaking down Colorado.  Rick Klein takes a look at Nevada and Florida and other Battlegrounds as we inch closer to […]

  3. […] […]

  4. By The US Presidential Election 2012 thread - Page 588 on November 5, 2012 at 10:37 pm

    […] […]

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