Obama +3 in Pennsylvania — Muhlenburg/Morning Call

Pennsylvania just gets more and more interesting. Are we going to have multiple election night surprises? The Muhlenburg/Morning Call poll of the Keystone State shows President Obama clinging (bitterly?) to a 3-point lead 49 to 46 with only 3% Undecided (Question 11). Without pushing Undecideds, Obama holds a 2-point lead, 48 to 46, 2% are voting third-party and 5% remain Undecided (Question 10). This begs the question on motivation and who among these late Undecideds ultimately shows up at the polls potentially swaying the outcome.

The Party ID is D +4 (Dem 46, Rep 42, Ind 11). In 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20). The poll might be a little light on Independents but otherwise one of the more fair party splits in Pennsylvania this entire cycle. Romney leads by 5-points among Independents 48 to 43. As we pointed out earlier, George Bush barely lost Pennsylvania in 2004 while losing Independents by 17-points (58 to 41). Tuesday is going to be very interesting around these parts.

On issues Romney leads on the economy and deficit while Obama holds a similar margin on handling medicare. Gender Gap: Men favor Romney +4, Women favor Obama +8. Racial demographics are interesting with a bump up in whites compared to 2008 — a return of the missing white vote? Otherwise this poll demographically is generous to Romney. Demographics: Whites support Romney 52 to 43, Non-Whites support Obama 79 to 19

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 46
Other 2
Undecided 3

40 Comments

  1. Kyle
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Calm down about the Pew poll. Look on page 10 of the poll. The gain has come from the Northeast and the West. We’re not in the running in either of these areas anyway. In the Midwest, Obama has gone from 51% support to 48% support since the last Pew survey. This is very positive! We do not need a good showing in the West and we certainly don’t need a good showing in the Northeast.

    • Pete
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +1

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes but it’s getting to the point where we can find something wrong with every poll. The fact remains that the sheer number of polls favouring Obama is devastating.

      • Kevin Paradine
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

        That is the point. It is a psyop, intended to demoralize the Republican base. You’re either part of it or playing into it.

      • Kardinal11
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        So is that enough for you to stay home? I’m guessing not. Go vote and watch what happens. I’m warning you now, Gallup will tighten. It doesn’t matter. It’s noise. There is no Obama momentum.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

        No one is not voting because of polls, especially if you’re in a swing State. And I mailed in my vote a while back,

      • Pete
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

        Yeah – devastating for the pollsters’ reputations after Tuesday.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

        If that was true, why are both campaigns in MN and PA?

    • Waingro
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney up with indies 44-41 in Pew too.

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just in NH…we want to turn it RED.

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thank you that’s what I pointed out on another site. Folks really need to take these top line results with a grain of salt get in the weeds.

      Another thing about Pew Obama is running sub 40 among Whites and they are implying a pt less likely Hispanic voters than registered Hispanics.

      Axlerods 72% White electorate becomes even more of a stretch.

      All in all this was a good poll for Mitt IMHO.

  2. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

  3. Chris
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Final: CAROLINA 21 – WASHINGTON 13

    Romney wins!!!! LOL, I’ll take anything I can get.

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My man Cam Newton got it done!!!!

  4. Jeni
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good God…just heard Christie at a press conference. He couldn’t just affirm his endorsement of Romney…he had to go on about the President and working together.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      he is a disgusting pos. I didn’t like him to begin with.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t even mention that fool around here. He’s a big ass Trojan horse of the worst kind.
      His behavior is something out of a television series. Like one of those scenes where the other party drops photos in his mailbox with a note that reads, “You know what you have to do”

      His attitude has been beyond belief. It’s almost like he’s enjoying it… I am sorry for Jersey because sooner or later he’s going to mess up.

  5. Interested Party
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Christie is a non-factor. he can’t politicize the disaster, but I thought he’s a more skilled pol that this. There are ways to do this. I think he’s just being an honest guy fighting for his state and people right now, and not really worriying about the politics. It’s what you get, heart on the sleeve. Leave him be.

    • Zang
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He’s a backstabbing jackass. Even Bloomberg did not this far.

    • Chris
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Christie can forget about politics outside of NJ

    • docsazman
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Christie wants to be re-elected as Gov in blue NJ, that’s all he cares about, not Romney (or the country). He can’t think of things bigger than himself (yes, I meant to say it that way).

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

        When Christie goes up against Booker and looks around for help against the MSM. The GOP should not only turn his back on him but actively assist Booker.

        It would screw over Christie and soften GOP image among Blacks

      • Chris
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

        Christie started with his horrible “me me me” speech at the RNC and ended it with the Sandy remarks. This guy is done in politics outside of NJ.

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        And President Romney should say Booker has done an outstanding job as Mayor and he’s one of those good Democrats we are looking for. So I endorse Booker.

    • AussieMarcus
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Or he’s confident enough that Romney’s winning that a “Sandy bounce” won’t hurt him.

      Both sides are campaigning in Penn and Minnesota, people! What does that tell you about what their internals must say?

      • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        You give that idiot way too much credit. That was mutiny; there is no other word to describe it.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Heart on sleeve? Listen, if you asked Snadra Fluke to praise Obama for his efforts in the wake of Sandy, she wouldn’t do as good a job as Chris ‘The President is doing an outstanding job… did you hear me? The President is doing an outstanding job” Christie.

  6. Zang
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More important than any poll: The Redskins lost!

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Numbers Cruncher just tweeted that Romney is winning NFL: predictors 19-11….maybe that will shut Chuck Todd up.

  7. Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Commenter over at Hedgehog whom is at Romney rally in Bucks County says crowd is 30,000. Any confirmation from anyone else here?

    • Waingro
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No but there is this:

      Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO:

      “The rally doesn’t even start for hours, but it feels like a Republican Woodstock.” — my mom, calling from Yardley, PA, a swing area.

      Robert Costa Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO:

      my mother is at the Bucks County Romney rally. Says she has never seen a crowd like this. Dwarfs the Bush ’04 rally crowd at the same farm.
      Expand

  8. Ken in Bama
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Even Snake Plissken wouldn’t go into New York right now. Can’t believe it hasn’t hit the national news harder. Actually, I can which is why I don’t watch those hacks anymore.

  9. John
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In response to post #45 (putting here so folks don’t have to go back to page 1 of comments – blog is busy today)…

    Gallup doesn’t weight their samples for party ID at all, only for population demographics per the latest census. They just report the results as sampled and weighted for demographcis. They can do it this way because their sample size of 3000 RV per day aggregated into 7-day averages is large enough that the party alignment sorts itself out without adjustment. It is probably the truest way to assess national political sentiment.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wont their poll just be thursday through tonight? I thougt the announcement was they would do one final four dah poll

  10. JGS
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Have people blogged about the new Pew national poll showing Obama +3 (48/45, and 50/47 with “undecideds allocated” whatever that means)? As best I can tell, the respondents include 36D, 32R, 29I, so a D+4 party ID.

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

    • trux
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That poll is real bad news. Liberals are going to be absolutely insufferable on Wednesday.

  11. Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    HISTORICAL ELEMENTS

    IF Romney wins:
    Will have defied nearly all national and swing state polls

    IF Obama wins:
    First democrat to win nov 6 election since 1860
    Onky second incumbant to win with redskins home loss
    First to win polling under 50 in gallups october polls
    First since FDR to win with unemployment over 7.5%

    Just to name a few

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interesting….One has a margin of error and all the others are facts. I’ll take it.

  12. JP
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The RCP Pennsylvania average is now the closest it’s been since February and trending upward for Romney (+5 net gain on obama since mid september), contrast that to both 2004 and 2008 when it had trended significantly downward for Bush and Mccain (-6 ) from their September positions.

  13. Medicine Man
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Peter, you know Keith is going to post all troll emails so we can raz you on Wednesday. You can run, but you can’t hide.

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