Monroe County, Pennsylvania Tied at 42 (Obama Won by 17 in 2008)

Hat-tip to reader Zang for the heads -up.

I’ll cut the small town paper some slack for running a registered voter poll since the survey area was so limited. Between the major parties, only 68k people voted in Monroe County in 2008. It’s neighbor slightly South, Bucks County, cast 329k votes in 2008.  But this type of poll result speaks volumes to the change in sentiment and the golden opportunity for Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania. As John Ekdahl of the Breitbart team regularly points out George Bush barely lost Pennsylvania in 2004 while losing Independents by 17-points (58 to 41).  Mitt Romney is leading with Independents in Pennsylvania today so there are plenty voter shifts in preference to be hopeful. Maybe that’s why 20,000 people are expected to rally for Romney in Bucks County later today?  We shall see.

Among Monroe County voters, the race for president is statistically a dead heat, an exclusive East Stroudsburg University/Pocono Record poll reveals. In a poll of 490 registered voters, 42.2 percent said they support President Barack Obama and 42 percent said they support Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The poll’s margin of error was +/-4.4 points.

  • Economy: Respondents overwhelmingly cited the economy as the biggest issue in the race. Presented with a list of eight topics and asked to rank the most important, the economy was No. 1 for 83 percent of respondents. Pocono voters who cited the economy as most important supported Romney by about 5 points over Obama.
  • Independents and Undecided: Among independents, Romney led Obama 41 to 34 percent. However, nearly 21 percent of independents polled in Monroe County said they were undecided “again showing how close the race is and how easily it could turn either way,” McGlynn noted. Young people had the highest rate of being undecided. Among those in the 18-to-24 bracket, 34.4 percent were undecided. And among those in this age group who made a selection, Romney was favored 42.3 percent to 17.9 percent for Obama. [note the youth sample was rather small so inferences lack some weight]
  • Gender Gap: Romney led among men by 7.5 percent, Obama’s lead among women was 4.3 percent. Analysts said the Romney lead among men is offset by a slightly larger population of women in the county.
  • Seniors: Middle-aged and senior voters were the most set in their candidate choices. Overall, those 65 and older slightly favored Romney, while those 25 to 64 slightly favored Obama.
  • Base support: Almost 80 percent of those identifying themselves as Democrats and 75 percent of Republicans said they were voting for their respective party candidates.
  • Poll shortcomings: Respondents skewed heavily older, female and white. Also, pollsters relied on calling land lines randomly selected from published telephone numbers. [when you’re polling a rural county, this is what you deal with]
  • Chris Christie Effect: “Since this poll was conducted, President Obama has received high marks for his response to Hurricane Sandy and demonstrated some bipartisanship with his collaboration with Gov. Chris Christie on recovery efforts in New Jersey. This could sway some undecideds in the president’s favor,” wrote ESU political science professor Adam McGlynn.

26 Comments

  1. Medicine Man
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    New Rassmussen numbers. R 49 O 49. Internals are getting better IMO. Indies + 9 ( + 4 from yesterday. Sandy bump is fading). Certain Romney 48 likely 1. Certain O 47 likely 1 lean 1. O has solidified his base still. No cross over.

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink | Reply

      I+9 makes me very happy. GOP always wins the crossover battle, this should continue to improve as Thursday and Friday roll off.

      • housebroken dad
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink

        Yup, if Romney even comes close to winning Indys by 9 points, he wins. Plain and simple.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink

        +1

    • M. White
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      I still don’t believe these numbers. I think Ras is oversampling Dems too much. He knows better but he wants it to be as close as possible so people will subscribe to his website to read his articles. I also think he has been critized some from people saying he is more of a republican pollster so he wants to take away that appearance.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:39 am | Permalink

        It will be interesting his final poll. I think he will adjust the party ID. Gallup will have posted, so it will give him some cover. Again, very happy to see the INdies are on their way back. R was +13 before Sandy. Not sure he will get all the Dem crossovers back. Won’t matter IMO.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      This is another confusing aspect of the polls. The Washington post said there’s a 13% cross-over on the D side. And some polls show virtually none

    • Blue Dog Dem
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink | Reply

      Hope you’re right about the Sandy bump.. Rasumussen’s job approval index for O shows 51% today for the first time since early October, and best overall approval index (-8) since May: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
      Worried about duration of Sandy bump given how close this is, and Christie’s over-the-top response hasn’t helped. :\

      • Blue Dog Dem
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink

        P.S. Hope I’m not being out of line here–I know Sandy was a huge disaster and that many are suffering right now…but now that I know that my friends and loved ones in the area are safe, I’ll admit that my thoughts are naturally returning to this election.

  2. Medicine Man
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    New Michigan poll Keith. R up. Check drudge.

  3. Jim S.
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19996781/2012/11/04/romney-and-obama-in-dead-heat-in-latest-michigan-poll New Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll in MI, R47 O46!

  4. stuckinmass
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    Nice numbers, but I don’t think Monroe county is a really good microcosm of the state

  5. Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    As a reminder the incumbent president or the leading challenger usually gets even or less than 0% from his final polling numbers. History is on our side. This goes back to 1956. I will be happy to see O have 48 or less on Monday. 11 out of 14 elections. Only 3 went on to win with an increase from their final poll

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_election

    Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/29 – 11/1 1000 LV 3.1 48 48 Tie.. Great a pickup of 1 from their previous poll.

  6. Dave
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    Ras seems to be bringing his numbers in towards dems as the election nears, that was predicted by some “trolls” here. Apparently that has happened before. It will be interesting to see if Gallup confirms that. Sandy could have had an impact.

    • Mass liberty
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think two things are important to note. Trends usually go against republicans on holidays and weekends when they are less likely to be home or care to bother to take the time.

      Look at the Ras trends all year. They always shifted 2-3 points dem over weekends.

      I personally believe there was no”sandy bounce”. It was simply parents out taking their kids trick or treating.

  7. Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Luntz just on Fox 3 minutes ago. Said the anger and frustration level he sees among voters does not in any way reflect the polls. He actually said ” DON’T BELIEVE SOME OF THESE POLLS”.

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:42 am | Permalink | Reply

      Luntz is right. There is a disconnect and it may be huge.

  8. Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    I also wonder if there’ll be a revenge effect. Yesterday’s data would be the first to pick anything up. The President’s campaign had to respond and Romney is running that ad. I think the Sandy goodwill will disappear as that sinks in. The President went small and bitter.

    • Mass liberty
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s all he ever was. The 2008 Obama was a complete fabrication.

      Obama has one skill and one skill only- stirring up resentment and emotions.

    • Blue Dog Dem
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

      Does anyone know where the “revenge” ad is being run? Also think that O has always been small-minded and bitter; people just didn’t want to see the signs in 2008.

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:39 am | Permalink

        I was just going to say that I hope the Revenge ad is up and running in PA. (At least outside Philly).

      • Kyle
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

        Amazingly enough, we are getting bombarded with Romney ads in Houston during the national news broadcasts… 3 in a row. I think the campaign is trying to burn through the rest of their money. I wish they’d concentrate on MN, MI and PA in these last few days rather than preaching to the choir down here.

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

        Haven’t seen any Romney ads here in Alabama unless you count local Congressman ads that mention him. See about 2-3 Obama ads a day in about as many hours watching TV, All about turnout now.

  9. Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Devastated residents lash out at Bloomberg during unannounced visit…Obama can’t escape this either. Remember just call and in 15 minutes I will fix it. HA!!!

  10. Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think when the rest of the faithful to this site will be ecstatic when they open up the site today. We are due some good news. A tough 3 or 4 last days.

  11. valleyforge
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    Monroe is not adjacent to Bucks and is part of the Poconos. It’s partly a NYC exurban commuter area which accounts for the large Obama win in 2008. Despite that it is a swing county so if this poll is reliable it could indicate the larger Lehigh/Pocono region has lost it’s Obama lean.

One Trackback

  1. […] Note: President Obama is stuck well below 50% at 47%, and in one key county Obama won by 17% it is now tied. […]

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