The final CNN/ORC International national poll shows the Presidential race tied at 49 between Barack Obama and  Mitt Romney.  NO ONE KNOWS WHO WILL WIN!?!?!?

Oh by the way, Mitt Romney leads by 22-points with Independent voters and the survey sampled 11 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans (Dem 41, Rep 30, Ind 29).  The modern record for partisan differential was 7 percentage points more Democrats in 2008. Obama gets 40% of the White vote despite massive over-sampling of Democrats.

I’m on pins and needles with no idea who is actually winning this race.



  1. Eric
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned this already but the problem with the poll is that they weighted it to the census demographics. Census demographics are much different than the actual voting population. That’s how you get D+11.

    This is the first poll that I’ve seen with a Nov. 4th polling date. I was checking out the 1980 polls today. The polls on Saturday showed a tied race. Sunday had Reagan+5. Monday was Reagan+10. Don’t know if that is occurring. Either there’s big movement occurring towards Romney that other polls haven’t picked up on yet or this poll was poorly conducted and should be thrown away.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m thinking the latter.
      ~ Brittany

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pew poll is bad. Methodology is solid and it shows us down 3. Only sign of hope Is that it was taken during Sandy aftermath and Chris Christie lovefest. Hopefully the dynamic has changed now.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

        PEW was demolished by us earlier tonight. Move along…

      • Bryan
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

        THANK YOU, TheTorch. Geez, Ray. Get with the now. Pew is so several hours ago.

      • Brad
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

        D+8 poll when you pull out leaners….do you know what that means?

    • Eric
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you haven’t seen an interview of Pat Caddell (on Fox News) then you should really listen to him. He was Jimmy Carter’s pollster in 1980. He’s a Democrat. He’s nervous that this could be 1980 all over again. Not saying the margins are the same as 1980, but the movement to Reagan occurred VERY late. It’s certainly a possibility. We’ll know more tomorrow and Tuesday.

      • Jon
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink

        Sorry the demographics don’t allow a 1980 all over again. Romney should win 50.5 to 48.8, and some where in the 280 range.

    • jeff
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Actually I was thinking the same. This CNN poll is the latest because it imcludes Nov. 4. I think the people at CNN detected a last minute surge towards Romney panicked and manipulated yhe numbers to show a tie. This rlection indeed may mirror 1980.

      • Bryan
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

        Insert diabolical laughter here:

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Given that most of the big polls are trackers, the effect would be muffled.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you adjust this poll for D+4 it ends up Romney +5. If you turn it even (very possible) it becomes Romney +9. This is very akin to 1980 except the swing is hidden by the Democratic oversample with an excuse for why (the Census data tells us so – even though the Census represents 2010, a year the GOP cleaned up and pulled even with Dems in turnout while winning indies by 21).

      This is getting awfully close to Romney plus 10 with his leading appearing to be increasing as we get closer. Incumbents get stuck and can’t move up in the final days. If they are strong incumbents that is irrelevant because they already are well over 50. At D+4 Obama is under 47%. At D+0 he is under 45%.

      • Ron
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:25 am | Permalink

        Odd that the 2010 enthusiasm on our side is discounted in 2012 by the media–is hardly mentioned. The Tea Party is supposedly dormant–or dead. But the same people are alienated and determined to send a message–and a lot of them are independents. I notice Politico ran a piece complaining that the House is out of reach for Democrats and that Republicans might even pick up a few more seats. What should this tell us about the relative state of each party? How is this not a portent?

  2. edtitan77
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Dem wave pollsters are implying for Obama seems to have completely bypassed the House. You don’t lose seats in a +D11 electorate


    • Brad
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You don’t lose the HOUSE in a D+11 election..and I don’t care if you’re down 50 seats.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If it’s D+11 then the Dems should increase their lead in the Senate AND retake the House even with indies trending GOP because indies are more likely to run a split ticket.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      If it’s D+11 Obama would be campaigning in Texas, Georgia and Indiana, and he would not be sending Bubba out to PA 4 times in one day.

    • Ron
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:27 am | Permalink | Reply

      Seems to me this fact alone is already telling us something about November 6. The House is closest to the people.

  3. Hestrold
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Gallop’s final swing state is 48-48. Can someone figure out the under the hood stats?

    • Brad
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Look at the dates. Last day of interviews was last Wed.

  4. Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I guess the only caveat I’d put on this is that 22% lead DOES seem high for Independents. Maybe the Dem spin of “Indies are really soft Republicans” has some merit with this sample, and so a D+11 isn’t as outrageous as it could be.

    • Jon
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      The majority of independents are old democrats. Since 2010 the dem party affliation has lost upwards of +5 and the republicans have picked up 3. There is no way in the free world where an+11 advantage exists for dems. You will see a +1-2 max in the electorate. I think you will see a +2R in the electorate, for the house might actually lose seats!!!! Not even redistricting could help that out! Damn they might lose a D seat in MA

      • Morse Fan
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 5:48 am | Permalink

        (as to the latter): “Oh, be serious!” (*winks*). Would be fun, wouldn’t it!

  5. punkster
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here is an interesting site:

    He projects different results based on various turnout models. Anything other than a 2008 turnout, and Obama probably does not win. If it is anything like 2004 (or more +R), then Obama loses decisively.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah I linked this earlier and said the same thing.
      ~ Brittany

  6. TheTorch
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Can this night get any better! Democrats now fear they may lose seats in the HOUSE ! (long article!)

    On the eve of the election, some party officials are privately worried that Democrats might even lose ground and drop one or two seats to the Republican majority.

    • Eric
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve always thought that Dems would lose a handful of seats in the House just due to re-districting and incumbents retiring. Some incumbents that barely survived 2010 might have retired. They’ll be replaced by Republicans.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

        Yep but according to the Pollsters we are having a D+8 election on Tuesday which would mean the Dems would be increasing seats in the house not losing. But apparently they are now concerned with losing a few…
        Which could mean we maybe having an R+ election on Tuesday!

      • NWConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:13 am | Permalink

        Just go here: http://unlikelyvoter.com/swingometer/house-of-representatives-swingometer/

        Enter in a swing of -4 or -5 into the house of representatives swingometer (D+8-9), you see a swing of nearly 20 seats and almost the majority. WHY aren’t the Democrats talking about this? If the polling for Obama is looking THIS good like D+8, then they should be talking about reclaiming the house.

  7. bks
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Last thirty national polls: Obama leads in 14, 12 are ties, Romney leads in 4


    • TheTorch
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ah. I wondered when you might troll up again. Please read what I have posted above. It may remove the mist from your eyes.

      • Bryan
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

        HAHAHAHA…Thanks AGAIN, TheTorch. You are the bomb.

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      …and if the turnout models or likely voters screen or both are bad, then none of that matters. Not a bit.

    • Bob San Diego
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Seriously, bks, everyone can read the top lines.

      You have yet to either a) say why you think Dems +6 or 8 or 10 is going to happen or b) what you think the turnout ratio will be.

      The top line is meaningless if the people surveyed aren’t representative of the electorate, and that’s what’s happening.

      If you don’t believe that, at least make your case with something other than “30 polls can’t be wrong.”

      • Dean
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

        That’s a fair question.

        If 2004 was R+4 and 2008 was D+7 what do bks (and everyone for that matter) think it will be this time?

        If I was a betting man – hold it, I am – I think it will be around D+2

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

        I am thinking D+2 as well. With Indy’s moving. Romney wins. It will be close though…not a landslide. If it’s even it could be over 300+ EV easily.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

        D+6. You can read Party ID as an output of the polls. If every poll is coming out as a higher D/R signal than you expect, it just might be a real signal.


      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

        That is a concern for me.

        I just don’t see how it squares with the early voting, what we’re seeing on TV, and what we’re hearing from the various battle grounds.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:15 am | Permalink

        Then why is the House totally out of reach for Dems? Cook is saying they might even lose seats. That doesn’t square with the toplines Dems are bragging about. Redistricting alone wouldn’t account for it.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink | Reply


      Lake has their memo out.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

        On what planet is that gal living?

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

        So I guess that Goeas is not going to break:

        Sorry, am just getting around to reading these early am memo’s.

        It’s obvious that things tightened for Obama over the past week. BG is saying it’s all in the NE. Well, that means nothing. This is the key point:

        Among those who say that they are extremely likely to vote (58% of the Electorate) –
        Romney has a three-point advantage (49%-46%). It should also be noted that 26% of
        voters indicate that they have already voted. Every indication is that Republicans
        focused their early voting efforts on soft supporters while Democrats wanted to “run up
        the score” by pushing intense supporters to the polls. Despite the advantage this would
        seem to give to the Democrats, President Obama holds just a two-point lead with these
        voters (50%-48%). This would hardly qualify as running up the score, and as l Page 4
        Republicans have caught up with Democratic turnout (both now at 27% of their Party’s
        vote), Republicans still retained a vote intensity of 4% or that of the Democrats with
        voters who have not yet voted.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      BKS just got back from the DailyKos website to get a dose of courage to face us.

      If all we did was read the top line results, Keith wouldn’t be an overnight Blogging star and the site wouldn’t be so popular.

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Honestly BKS. I admire that you are a polite troll at least, but I’m not sure why you think after all your posts here that anyone is going to give two shits about top line poll numbers. The theory on this blog is based on poll internals and what the sample is taken from. My 4 yo can look at the top line number and tell me which number is higher. I don’t think anyone here would dispute that if this is a D+8 election Obama will win. I certainly wouldn’t. If you truly believe the Electorate will be more Democratic then 2008 then I applaud your imagination and creativity.

      • bks
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

        I believe that polling organizations *agonize* over their samples. I see no reason (yet) to second guess them. If Romney wins on Tuesday there will be a sea change in survey research. I’ve seen all kinds of errors in statistical methods so if it happens, I’ll accept it. I try not to fight reality. If it doesn’t happen, hopefully you and others will reflect on what went wrong with your model and improve it.


      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink


        A fair answer!

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:33 am | Permalink

        The low response rate, conservative distrust of media and obsessive need to weight minorities are probably the culprits in the polling fiasco.

        Outside if PPP I don’t think any of the polling outfits are intentionally in the tank for Obama.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      When we make it D+50 Obama always seems to win decisively.

      And even Dems I’ve talked to don’t believe the polls that he’s ahead. It doesn’t make sense to them that such a weak economy would allow the President to win so many swing states and still have the national polls mostly in the margin of error.

      The CNN poll is Romney up by 5 when you adjust for D+4, an electorate on the high end of Democratic turnout this time. Obama is toast.

    • Mike
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Keep dreaming ……..

  8. Jeni
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I almost feel sorry for Bill Richardson on Hannity right now. Well, maybe not….

  9. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    @allthingsgeography ” I’ll give Romney a chance if he wins. I have said that if he succeeds and does what he says he wants to do, I’d be willing to consider voting for him in 4yrs. I don’t agree with everything Republicans believe in, but I don’t have a huge partisan aversion to them either.”

    There is no way you’re a democrat.

    Too much open-mindedness.

    LOL, I actually have good friends that are democrats.

    We actually talk politics with civility, although no one ever changes their mind – until someone punches the other guy out.

    • Kyle
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I said the same thing about Obama in 2009. I told my friend, “I really don’t care about Republican or Democrat right now. I just want Obama to succeed. I don’t want my family to suffer just so that I can say I told you so. We’re in a lot of trouble now.”

      Anyway, he did a mediocre job in the end and he’s far too divisive. He needs to go.

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LOL…yeah, I try to avoid the punches. I’m not one for political arguments. I was never one to take the bait when my brother tried to argue with me as a supporter of Hillary Clinton back in the ’08 primaries (I voted in the WA State Caucuses for Obama).

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney gets elected the next four years will determine his fate in four years. A much lower unemployment rate with greatly declined or eliminated deficits and a more bipartisan atmosphere would make him nearly impossible to defeat. It ultimately was the same for Obama but he chose to embrace central planning and partisanship. He had a great opportunity to actually be a bipartisan President and lead. He won by a wide margin and had enough cache to force Reid and Pelosi into line but he decided he didn’t need the Republicans and turned pretty belligerent to those on our side of the aisle then was surprised that we didn’t embrace doing what he wanted when we retook the House.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

        I’m less confident about Romney’s prospects. Deleveraging has yet to complete and our debt is near-uncontrollable.

        But that’s a conversation we can have after the election.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

        If Ewwbama had done all of that, they’d have just replaced all the US presidents with him in the public school history books. He’d have a hundred year halo, and replace someone on Rushmore. He had it all in the palm of his hand but he’s an empty suit and wouldn’t know normal if it bit him on the @rse.

  10. Kyle
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Funny you mentioned Reagan’s final numbers.. I haven’t felt so strongly about a candidate since 1980. I remember a time when the whole country was united behind a great man. If you weren’t around back then, just take a look at the 1984 electoral map. I really miss those days. When I heard Romney speak during the first debate, I knew we had our next Reagan within our grasp. I know you all feel the same or you wouldn’t be studying poll data so feverishly. I hope Americans can come to their senses by Tuesday and do the right thing. Showing up after a natural disaster and giving an empty speech for the umpteenth time doesn’t put in you in the class of Reagan, and it certainly doesn’t earn you a second term when your record is lackluster at best.

    • O'BuhBye
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m with you. It is Reagan/carter all over again. My only worry is whether we have become too socialist for a Reagan to win. I’m going with the ras polling. RR has 267 locked up. Pa, oh, wi, maybe Iowa, are too close to call. RR needs one of those to turn back these statist.

  11. No Tribe
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Among other high propensity-voting blocs, Romney continues to receive majority
    support from seniors (54%), married voters (56%), weekly church attendees (59%), white
    Evangelicals (79%), and gun owner households (60%). Romney is also leading with key
    and often-decisive demographic groups like suburban voters (54%), Catholics (53%),
    middle class voters (52%), and middle class families (56%).
    ÿ In contrast, much of the President’s coalition is built on strong support from lower
    propensity voters like urban voters (59%), Hispanic voters (61%), those with just a high
    school education (51%), lower income voters (62%), and those who just say they are very
    likely to vote (52%). If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008
    electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the President will lose.

    yep, and we shall see.

    • trux
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Is that the internals of the CNN poll? That seems like a very low numbers of hispanics…

    • trux
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ah, I see that that is the Battleground poll. Now I am worried again, beacuse they seem to have gotten a bad sample of Hispanics, since most polls show Obama getting up to 70%, and they may be missing some intensity from that group of voters. They may turn out in greater numbers and more solidly for Obama than the Battleground poll is projecting.

      • Ron
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:46 am | Permalink

        But the Hispanics are not concentrated in the most important battleground states–except for FL.

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:41 am | Permalink | Reply

      That Hispanic number if even remotely true would give Axlerod a heart attack. Their whole election strategy is predicated on getting 70% of Hispanics and turning them out.

      I always thought that was a big error on their part. Hispanics have the worst turnout ratios. Not seeing any indication that is going to change.

  12. Ken in Bama
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anybody hear Clinton tonight at the Obama rally? He was stating that his mommy told him to get his hand out of the cookie jar when he was caught he was depressed for being reprimanded. Then he points at Obama and says “his hands are still in the cookie jar”. Not sure exactly what point he was trying to make, but he keeps coming out with these sly little remarks that can be taken either way, He isn’t stupid…and neither is O’s campaign. They know what he is doing and figure he is more use to bring people to the polls than the damage he is doing with his speeches.

    I know what he is doing…and as much as I would like him to, but he won’t because he has to protect Hillary for 2016, I would love to see him snap tomorrow in PA and just yell “Don;t vote for this man!!! He will bankrupt you all!!!”

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Clinton is not stupid, for sure. I would not put anything past him, especially at this point in the race. But with it being just 48 hours or so away, I can’t see how big of an impact it would have even if he did suddenly slam Obama.
      ~ Brittany

      • Ken in Bama
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

        Probably none. But I would just like to see him snap.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        “I know what he is doing…and as much as I would like him to, but he won’t because he has to protect Hillary for 2016, I would love to see him snap tomorrow in PA and just yell “Don;t vote for this man!!! He will bankrupt you all!!!””

        Clinton going rouge (and maybe Republican?)….I don’t know whether to be horrified for simply laugh at such a thought. I’ve already resigned myself this election on its outcome, so I’ll take whatever comedy relief I can get.

    • JP
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Remember Clinton was the one who went through great lengths to convince the Obama campaign to spend all of their money trying to paint Mitt Romney as a ‘severe conservative’

    • Blue Dog Dem
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve seen him say weird/quirky things in tough campaigns. At one point in Hillary’s primary campaign in 2008 I recall him talking aimlessly about doughnut holes. Thought of comfort food maybe.

    • Tara
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Clinton was saying that Romney’s hands are in the cookie jar. Although I do think the comment is more appropriate for Obama !!

    • Svigor
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Clinton made the case for Obama as if his own presidency was on the line – slamming Romney in folksy fashion over his disputed claim that Jeep is sending jobs to China.

      “The guy got caught red-handed saying something that wasn’t true,” he said.

      “When I was a kid and I got caught with my hand in the cookie jar, I kind of got red, shrugged my shoulders and took my hand out of the cookie jar,” Clinton said, adding, pausing before his punch line. “He’s still grabbing for more cookies!”

      President Obama gets by with a little help from his friends – Clinton, Pitbull, Stevie Wonder and Dave Matthews

  13. Dane Baker
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anybody know the crowd numbers between R in Newport News VA and Prez Obama in CO? Camera doesn’t pan out at either site to see crowd size.

    • Jan
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Where do you watch the rally, I was looking for a live stream..

  14. Jan
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Did we discuss the latest WMUR New Hampshire poll already? It’s from saturday, so I’ll problably have missed it, but I especially like the steady shift in independents on page two. http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres110312.pdf
    I don’t buy much of the democratic hallucinations, but I was fearing the effects of Sandy on the independent vote a bit. Since the CNN-poll those days are long gone of course 😉

    I like that Romney is ending the campaign in New Hampshire, very symbolical.

  15. MrX
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is setting up to be like 2004. Allow me to present a scenario from the other side. I’m Canadian, but I follow US national politics quite a bit. In 2004, I was a hardcore liberal (WTF eh?). I hated Bush with a passion. The polls near the end were showing Kerry ahead. I used to listen to Air America and because of the polls, I thought it’d be close, but that Kerry would pull it off. WOW! What a disappointment. The feeling of dejection on Air America was palpable. They were attacking Kerry for conceding. They wanted him to bring out the lawyers, etc. Anyways, these are not nice people. I found myself disgusted with it all and left it behind.

    This year, it’s like an exact replica of that except for two things. 1. It’s not Romney who’s the incumbent, it’s Obama. And 2. The motivation seems MUCH MUCH higher for Republicans than I remember in 2004.

    Anyhow, I know firsthand that pollsters will lie. They did it in 2004. You can’t make me forget that. I listened to Air America and everyone there is proof that the pollsters lied to them. They didn’t just lie a little. They lied a LOT! I still remember the dead air for what seemed like 10 minutes on AA. Kerry had nothing going for him.

    Having gone through this from the other side, I wouldn’t want to be a liberal come Tuesday. They’re loving the polls now. But just like in 2004, they’re not going to like them much on Tuesday.

    So if anyone wants to know if the pollsters would really do this. Trust me. They will. They absolutely will not show a liberal being behind.

    • Eric
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s not deliberate. The polls usually have too many Democrats in them because a lot of them don’t apply a rigid likely voter screen. They include people in the poll that aren’t going to vote. This tilts the poll a few points Democratic.

      As to 2004, I’ve studied it. At this time Bush was leading Kerry by 4 even though the polls showed Bush leading by 1.5. Late-deciders went to Kerry allowing him to close the margin down to 2.6 by election day. But the polls were off by about 2.5 points leaning Democratic. They weren’t embarrassed too bad on election day because it looked like they were only off a point due to the late-deciders bailing them out.

      Should late deciders go to Romney instead of Obama, then Romney could gain around 1.5% before the polls detect it. If they’re already off by 2.5, then they could be off by 4 on election day.

      It’s very common for the polls to tilt Democratic. They didn’t in 2008 due to very low enthusiasm among Republicans. In those polls they included too many Democrats along with too many Republicans so the two offset each other.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

        Nice insight Eric.

    • Dave
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      “At this time Bush was leading Kerry by 4 ”

      This is all interesting insight. Polls are one thing. Air America was entirely another. God knows what they were saying…probably Kerry in a landslide.

  16. mchlgregg
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Reblogged this on Michael Gregg.

  17. Dane Baker
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Jan, FOXNEWS had both events live stream

  18. A.D.S.
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just saw on Fox News.. Democrat Joe Trippi just admitted that if Romney is right with his turnout, and that what the Republicans say the electorate will be, Romney will sweep the swing states.

  19. Dave
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey did you see that blurb on abc news about what question in a poll was most highly correlated with the final winner? To do this the researchers looked back to the 30’s too see which typical poll question best predicted the outcome in an election.

    The question wasn’t what candidate did you vote for “what candidate do want to win” but it was “what candidate do you expect to win”

    “Which candidate do you expect to win. ” with a correlation around 86% of the time correctly predicted the winner.

    I’ll be the first to state the disclaimer…1) this is a topline number 2) the devils in the details/methodology (as all of you are aware) and none of the details of the research were revealed

    Don’t think the propagandists in the media and dark corners of the establishment aren’t aware of this. Hence the endless shilling…

    But this is not the first time you’ve heard this here.

    It appears that polls can be viewed as great ways to manipulate the masses (and perhaps why so many are coming out this cycle and why they have taken on such great importance and why the press in virtually every analysis seems to cherry pick the Obama-favorable polls and why the sampling is skewed) and in politics this can be a self fufilling prophecy more than not.

    • Matthew Schultz
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All the more reason for sites like this. If Romney wins by a significant margin, perhaps the old polls can be discredited and a new line of polling companies can be created. Backer Insight can lead the way.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

        Let’s keep our fingers crossed. If the pollsters lose, America wins. No way in hell people should be trusting them. Too easy to abuse.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:24 am | Permalink | Reply

      I swear I never want to read those words “RCP average” ever EVER again.

  20. TPK
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Did anyone else notice on the cross tab on page 30 that they give the breakdown for men, women, and white voters, but the “Non-White” column just shows “N/A”? Same with 18-34 voters. I don’t read a ton of these, but I can’t imagine they’d have a column there if it was normal for them not to put any data there.

    The explanation (on page 29) seems to be that not enough non-white or 18-34 respondents got past their likely voter screen to keep the sampling error under their threshold. These are the only two subgroups in the cross-tabs to fail to reach that threshold.

    I wouldn’t want to read too much into that, but it can’t be good news for Obama that the only two groups from which CNN’s pollster couldn’t find enough likely voters to create an acceptable sample are the very same two groups on whose record-breaking turnout Obama’s campaign is counting on to put him over the top.

  21. M. White
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I posted this earlier but some may not have seen it so I wanted to post again…Please read, my gut tells me I’m right. When it hit me I was thinking and praying, please Lord, let Romney win if it’s your will. (I won’t go into that right now) But that’s when all this came to me, not saying it’s a prophesy or anything just saying that’s the moment it came to me.

    *Something just hit me like a ton of lead. I was standing outside smoking a cigarette and thinking…this is happening! The Obama campaign has not prepared for what is happening. Their whole plan was to destroy Romney during the summer and they did just that, Romney was down in the polls, not getting many people at his rallies then the 1st debate came and Romney did away with all the negatives and hundreds of millions of dollars Obama had spent in just 90 minutes. Obama’s campaign never anticipated this, they thought they could cruise through the debates and on to victory but something started happening in the month of October, Republican enthusiasm started to well up inside and now all of the huge crowds coming out of the woodwork, Republicans that stayed home in 2008. Obama’s campaign never thought Romney could consolidate the Republican base; they thought they would be running against a destroyed candidate at this point in time, they never imagined Romney could draw huge crowds resembling Obama’s crowds in 2008, they just never thought it was possible, that it would never happen. And before Oct. 3, I would have thought the same thing. Obama’s entire campaign has built itself around the idea that by destroying Romney, Republicans would just stay home like they did 2008. But lo and behold something organic happened, an undertow of enthusiasm for Romney, in one month all the Republicans have consolidated, they are ready, they are motivated, they know now we have a candidate that can and will win. I believe on Tuesday we will see so many Republicans voting it will scare the hell out of Obama’s campaign and there will be many Reagan democrats that will vote for Romney. I also believe inside the Obama campaign is nervous, very nervous. The polls aren’t picking up on this enthusiasm; the media is trying to tamp down Republican enthusiasm because they know something is happening, that’s what Michael Barone is seeing along with Pat Caddel. Just think about what I am saying, this has hit Obama’s campaign like an asteroid falling out of the sky, they never prepared for this! This was not how it was supposed to turn out. Reporters on the ground know it but they don’t want the people to know it. A huge tsunami is coming, can’t you feel it, and it will be here in about 48 hours!*

    Also, at the end of the week Obama’s campaign saw how huge Romney’s rallies were becoming and now they have started busing people in from surrounding areas to give the appearance of enthusiasm and trying to gin it up with all the celebrities, but Romney doesn’t need them, he’s doing it on his own and that should be very disturbing to Obama’s campaign.

    Like I said, it just hit me. I go from exited to fearful and earlier I was a little fearful then I started thinking about all of this and it just came to me especially after seeing almost 35,000 showing up to see Romney in PA, damn that’s a ton of people in the cold, windy weather. Nobody would stand out there in that unless they were motivated!

    • spottedreptile
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 1:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      You know, I’m really getting sick of this post. You’ve reposted it on every damm thread. I liked it the first time, but enough already.

      • Mike
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 4:20 am | Permalink


  22. jeff
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    GRAVIS R 48 O 48 D+8. Again Romney trounces Obama with Indies. Again assumes 2008 Electorate.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I will take it. Helps with dem GOTV. Won’t matter.

    • Shane kovac
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      So according to the polls It’s tied, 30 secs left… ROMNEY ‘s on the 1 and it’s 4th and goal (for this scenario the kickers are all dead). 😉

      Can he punch it in for the win

  23. Hestrold
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I venture out to the Internet at large, such a different perspective. There it’s all tied, tied, tied, with Obama with the upper hand. Hope we’re not just all blowing smoke here.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink | Reply

      Oh, I’m sure this thing will be spun as a “Black Swan.”

  24. jeff
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    just by extrapolating the intetnals of these recent polls I sincetely expext Romney to win by 5 to 7 points and well over 300 evs

  25. jeff
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 3:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Is it me or Im I imagining things? It seems like the Democratic sampling in the last pre election polls is incrrrasing as we get closer to e time. A PPP poll that jist came came out basically said that NC was too close to call but had a whopping D+13 sample..

    • Rick
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 6:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      NC is too close too call when sampling Democrats (D+13). Imagine if Republicans are included in the poll!! Obama’s hurting in NC.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 7:50 am | Permalink | Reply

      These polls are done to ramp up dem GOTV thats all….I hope RCP stops including them in 2016…

      • NWConservative
        Posted November 5, 2012 at 8:44 am | Permalink

        Yep. I was right. Thursday was a bad day for Romney. Now 49-48 in Romney’s favor. Obama down 1 pt. Romney may be up tomorrow to 50%.

    • TPK
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PPP must do their entire NC poll within walking distance of their headquarters on Capital Blvd. in Raleigh. Maybe, for demographic balance, they’ll head down to Hillsborough St. or Cameron Village or take a field trip to Carrboro.

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  1. […] if Obama is losing indies by 20%, he is losing a lot of dems in crossover as well. More here, and more […]

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