It bears reminding in every early vote update, Barack Obama had incredible advantages in 2008 that propelled him to victory. In state after state that lead is not only diminished this year but strong GOP gains often mitigate Obama’s entire final election day margin. Florida is only the latest example. Obama won Florida in 2008 by 236,148 votes:
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/265216644345896961 https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/265217556741255169-
Categories
- Colorado (228)
- Columns (22)
- Florida (303)
- General (593)
- Iowa (205)
- Michigan (123)
- Nevada (201)
- New Hampshire (135)
- Ohio (354)
- Pennsylvania (191)
- The Battle for … (20)
- Virginia (245)
- Wisconsin (181)
-
Recent Posts
-
Archives
-
Meta
Battleground Watch 
104 Comments
And presumably this isn’t even counting the Independent move from O to R?
Florida is still close but it will go red this time. there may be some doubt about VA still. and the big unknowns are OH, WI, IA, CO, NH… the main problem is that Obama needs only OH ( provided Romney can not sneak PA from under his nose; if this maneuver succeeds it will be the Austerlitz of political campains in USA for decades; I guess Americans know that Austerlitz is the great battle in 1805 when against all odds Napoleon beat the superior combined forces of Rusia and Austria by a cunning attack)… if only this would work…
Well if Romney takes VA then Obama will need at least an additional state of those five besides Ohio. Ohio will only get him to 261 if Romney were to take the other four.
Well if Romney were to win VA, then just taking Ohio won’t be enough for Obama. That would put him at 261. He’ll need either WI, CO or IA+NH.
IMO, IA and NH. If RR GOTV in the others the raw data in EV favors RR. It is simple mathematics.
I will add WI also,
yeah, Obama needs OH and WI and still has it even if Romeny takes VA and all the rest on the list.
I believe Obama will still Win. I am for Romney, But something smells wrong:(
why Mitt may take PA…
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/mitt-s-pennsylvania-push-real-or-fake_660255.html?page=2
Also some Florida Dems vote R in national elections
YOUGOV national poll results…
Click to access ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf
Can we stop with posting the junk internet polls already.
Agreed. This is also D+6!!
Seriously, all these people who are saying Obama is ahead, do they even READ this site? I am getting so sick of it.
~ Brittany
Well think of it this way. On Tuesday 6th, they will have their eyes opened and be a troll no more!
Romney up by 10 among indies and yet down by 2 in election that is simply not possible….
>>> Romney up by 10 among indies and yet down by 2 in election that is simply not possible….
This isn’t true any longer. Zogby released a poll showing that indies are impressed with O’s way of dealing with Sandy, and now they’re moving to Obama. He’s actually UP by 2 points with indies now. This is why you see both Rasmussen and Gallup having the race all square now. A week ago, It was 50+ Romeny to 40xxx Obama.
Unfortunately Brittany, most people just look at the headline figures, and dont bother with anything else. So they just dont get it!!
Why do they even come here then, if they believe the polls that are skewed so ridiculously to democrats? This whole site is about taking apart the polls and showing how wrong they are, yet all these trolls keep coming here citing those very polls Keith pulls apart. I am really beginning to think most of them can’t read past a 4th grade level.
~ Brittany
i suppose they come here to demoralize us or vent frustrations, i don’t see a point in arguing er polls, we’ll find out soon enough which ones were right
I don’t trust anything with “gov” in the title. Garbage heap…next poll please.
Neil, please take your junk link to the Daily Kook site. That will give them a hiccup of hope.
Romney rally in PA will be live on FoxNews very soon. Heads up.
On C-SPAN1 too – people there describing it as a “Republican Woodstock” – Obama’s arrogance may have caught up with him here starting with the “clinging to their guns and religion” smear, giving Hillary the upset in 2008 primaries (after Obama had clinched), the war on coal, the middle class and Obama’s redistribution from the cities to the suburbs … Romney may be smarter than smart – he’s not just tearing down Obama’s blue wall – he’s jumping over it! GO R&R GO!
I blocked cpan1, cspan2, msnbc and a few others from my guide a while back. Haha.
Obama wound up with 41 major newspaper endorsements to Romney’s 34. There were 12 major papers that flipped from Obama to Romney from ’08 to ’12. Obama even fell short of John Kerry, who got 51 endorsements.
The flipped endorsements are helpful. But it does indicate the difference between now and 08.
hopefully R retention, D crossover and O choosing republicans will be better as well.
yeah but why believe these biased hard numbers such as the early polling data from basically every state when you have the unbiased pollsters telling us what is really going on 🙂 that is ok will just make tuesday all the better
Currently 39 degrees at station closest to Romney rally with northwest winds 15 and windchill of 30. Tell me those thousands of folks aren’t MOTIVATED!!
Due to air traffic delays during takeoff and landing. Romney running about :45 minutes late.
Is Ryan going to make this event?
I don’t believe so…he is scheduled to be in Castle Rock, Colorado in a few hours.
Wait for it, here comes the “it’s over, Obama has won because the polls said so” crowd. They’ll be posting in 5..4..3..2..
1… ‘crickets’
Where did they go? Back to their caves, maybe?
They’re busy finding all the D+10 polls and writing up their “Gosh I don’t know guys, it looks bad for Romney :(” lines.
~ Brittany
pew got another one out:
Click to access 11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf
I do not udnerstand how in 2 weeks it can flip from 49-45 for Romney to 48-45 for Obama…
it goes from +3R to +4D turnout that is how…..
I could change the headline to read the following: ROMNEY UP 4 WITH INDEPENDENTS AND OBAMA NEEDS A d +6 ELECTORATE JUST TO REACH 50%
and that would be accurate to the data…it is all spin…spin designed to turn away REPUBS hope we aren’t that foolish….
You really don’t understand that races often change, and that sometimes they change quickly?
PLEASE
This is the problem with a static poll. Rassmussen has been tracking 1000 LV’s every night for a 3 night average. RR was + 13 with Indies before Sandy. Yesterday + 5. Today + 9. Tomorrow the Thursday night polling will fall off and I’m sure it will continue at a minimum of + 9 if not greater. Pew’s data will be 3 days old by Election Day in a fluid electorate. See Gallup poll weekend of 1980 election.
not that quickly and not that much.
Do you have Rassmussen Premium? Actually I do, so it is what it is. I know it doesn’t fit the template of the Obama comeback, but Sandy is not the game changer as the first debate was….no matter what Pew ( or the Wizard of Oz) says.
>> Medicine Man — Rassmussen has been tracking 1000 LV’s every night for a 3 night average. RR was + 13 with Indies before Sandy. Yesterday + 5. Today + 9. Tomorrow the Thursday night polling will fall off and I’m sure it will continue at a minimum of + 9 if not greater.
9% lead for Romney with indies. I hope Rasmussen is right! But I don’t understand how his numbers can add up.
He has it 49-49 39% Democrats and 37% Republicans. How can this be using modern math?? 🙂
Assume 90% of dems and repubs vote party line, how can there be a 9% advantage of indies for Romney and the poll be tied??? It would have to indicate that a large majority of Repubs are going to vote Obama and I KNOW that isn’t going to happen.
Anyone have info on the early voting numbers in VA compared to 2008?
Sean Davis has the numbers wrong in his tweet. The FL Dem advantage is 3.1% as of 11/4, not 3.6%
Kyle, how do you wind up with that number?
If you do the math is about an 8% advantage – unless I don’t understand how they’re computing this number.
It went from R+4 to D+6. People are saying D+4, but on page 8,
party ID
R/D/I
843/1007/761
D = 38.6%, R = 32.3%
D+6.3%
D+6?? Good grief, it is even worse! Well clearly PEW has decided to jump in the tank with Obama. I’ll send them a snorkel, there gonna need it on Tuesday!
Says it all. I’m not a tin foil hat guy, but it sure set up the narrative of the BO comeback? They did well calling the race in ’08. How did they do doing a R turnout wave like in 04? This is why I like Rassmussen. He got it right in both ’04 and ’08. (Sorry, Peter. It will make blood shoot out of your eyes).
it doesn’t say what was the identification in early oct…
Pew’s was R + 4.
and how in the world they can change from R+4 to D+6????!!!!
See page 10 of Pew’s poll from about a month ago:
Click to access 10-8-12%20Political%20Release.pdf
Party ID breakdown of respondents was 392 R (36%), 361 D (33%), 328 I (30%), so R+3 — and he ended up with Romney +4.
Now, however, in the Pew poll released today, we get the following party ID breakdown of respondents — 843 R (32%), 1007 D (38%), 761 I (29%), or D+6. And lo and behold, we get Obama +3.
Pew moved the party ID by a full 9 POINTS in favor of the Democrats in less than one month’s time, and moved the needle on the result by 7 points.
this is really junk polling… how do they determine the party ID?
Back to Florida early voting…DNC Chair Debbie W-S was just on C-Span insisting the Dems are demolishing Republicans in the Florida early vote (they lead but by 200,000 less than in 2008)!! OK – whatever you say Debbie
Seems to be Os narrative this weekend….we lead early voting so that means we win. what was florida elecfion day turnout in 08 i assume obama won but by how much
IIRC someone just posted this elsewhere, and 0 won FL by 240k. And he’s down about 200k in early voting from 2008.
Kos is doing usualy smug dance over at dKos, saying the Romney Team is already talking defeat. I can’t stand that guy and hope we can wipe that smug off his face on Tuesday.
Kos are a delusional cult. Fortunately after Tuesday they will be blaming Hurricane Sandy (even though that was supposed to save them), blaming Voting machines, blaming early vote deadlines, blaming Bush 43 and they may even consider blaming Romney for running such a superbly strategic campaign and that he basically stole PA because they didnt no he was planning to go there.
I could write the entire script for them.
I couldn’t have said it better. They’re the ultimate Alinsky children.
I wish these leftist could live at least one year in a communist country. they would return conservatives to the bone….
Amen to the “one year in a communist country” line. I was stationed in West Germany at the tail end of the Cold War, travelling numerous times into East Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland soon after the Iron Curtain collapsed. Memories of the decay, despair, and overall poverty of those countries still haunts me when I hear Americans extolling the virtues of Socialism. There’s a great post by an economist from UC-Berkeley(!) showing how places like East Germany and North Korea are great economic laboratories for side-by-side comparisons of capitalist and Marxist systems. After 50 years or so, the normal differential for GDP is 10X per capita. From what I saw, that economist is dead on. That said, the old line still applies: “A conservative is a liberal who has just been mugged. A liberal is a conservative who has just been arrested.”
My head is spinning. All these polls, all these reports, what to believe, what not to believe. I know all the polls are oversampling Dems. I know the media is doing all they can to drag 0bama across the finish line. But something tells me 0bama has it. I can’t explain. I feel like Eeyore. I want to be positive and beleive Romney will win. But there seems to be nothing that shows he will….I hope I’m wrong.
Your are an Eyeore! Stop it!
Eeyore even! LOL
Hey Red Gary – read this and calm down. Polls are mostly junk this time. They have all forgotten the 2010 election and defaulted to 2008. It will be OK.
http://winteryknight.wordpress.com/2012/11/04/george-will-and-michael-barone-predict-landslide-victory-for-romneyryan/
+1
Seriously, I may just stop coming here because I am sick of all the Eeyores. Really sick of it.
~ Brittany
Britanny stay and just treasure the moment that will be Tuesday evening. The left will be imploding on MSNBC, the Silver meltdown will be in full flow and we might even end up with the Senate in republican hands! A night to remember!
I’m trying TheTorch, it’s just so frustrating. I went on electionprojection.com and took comfort from their Unskewed Polls section which shows that Obama only wins with a 2008 turnout which we all (well, apparently the pollsters don’t) will never happen. With a 2004 turnout and even an average of 2004 and 2008, Romney wins.
~ Brittany
I am new to this blog so sorry if I offend anyone or if I have not read enough. If the polls are all in the bag for Obama … Why?. Their revenues come from many commercial clients but their reputation is effected greatly by how accurate they are for the elections.
Thanks for proving my point from post #11. You’re late, but you prove my point.
Red G. If you are real, take a little time and look at the EV data of the mains states RR need to win. FLA, NC, VA, OH, CO and you will see the Dems are way down and the Repubs are way up. Obama won these states primarily on the strength of the EV. Not there this time. He needs this because the GOP historically wins the Election Day vote. No reason to believe it won’t happen again.
In fact, these numbers should have GOP worried considering that early voting was cut short 42%. Do the calculation.
LOL
You are laughing but I will help with the math. D with 14 days EV was ahead in 2008 by 363k votes and Obama won by 236K. it means he lost 35%. With 8 days EV, D is up 133K votes albeit down 36%. You take away 36% and 35% from the final tally, D still has enough to carry the state. Laugh if you want.
Assumes:
1) The relative turnout between the parties is the same from 4 years ago, and
2) All those who were “prevented” from voting early will have the desire to make sure they vote this time.
Two facts not in evidence. Yet.
Live free….whistling past the grave yard as Romney draws 30k+ in Penn.
I wouldn’t be so confident in a D + 6 poll… This ain’t 2008 and deep down you know it.
See my calculation above.
Sorry free, you are forgetting the increase in GOP votes. AND that McCain won the election day vote by 100k with a depressed GOP. see the “confidence” in Axelrods response in earlier blog..don’t forget, that doesn’t include the Indie votes..on average RR up 5 to double digits. BO won by 8… We will soon find out…again, look at Axelrod. Doesn’t look confident.
Medicine, McCain win is the 35% reduction and the increased GOP vote is the 36%. Both factors were considered. You don’t look at difference, you look at ratio.
Early voting TOTALS were highest ever recorded in FL. So even though it was a shorter time frame, people voted in greater numbers. And 0bama’s margin dropped substantially.
I sent me 15 year old daughter to the local 0bama office to “volunteer” last weekend. I had her write down the area codes she was calling. Had some local, but at least half were WI, IA, OH, and MI. She left her cell phone number to get updates on GOTV effort. Never got a call. Said there were 2 people in the office and it was completely disorganized compared to the Romney Office where she is an intern. FWIW
Hahahahahahaha
you magnificent bastard!!!!
btw obama carried florida by 237k in 2008, if we have cut the early vote advantage down 200K it is over
Correct. But a fact like that does not compute to someone in a bubble!
Deep breaths… Peter Hamby @PeterHambyCNN
Dems in Ohio blowing up early vote today in blue counties like Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin. Some GOP anxiety about it.
LOL.
Can’t make up 150k in 6 hours…no matter how many smokes they hand out.
LMAO
Just posted on numbers Muncher. People still in line in cuyhoga, but they got 2200 in, in 2008 about 3600 I believe…not good for BO.
Correct. 2500 this year. 3500 in ’08. Still well behind pace.
34000 tickets apparently issued for the Victory Rally in PA! 30000 approx there, could be more as there are outside numbers not included.
This is PA folks! PA!
Drudge had Gallup up and then page refreshed and it was gone. I think if was R 49 O 45. Why is it down?
Gallup doesnt release until noon tomorrow. Maybe have ben posting the battleground swing state
Shane that is a good picture….lol…lol…..
Pew states that their party ID is 36D 32R 29I but if you calculate the numbers it comes to 37D 31R 29I. This is a +6D poll. Now I know they were accurate in 04 and 08 but still…does anyone believe we’re going to have a +6D electorate this time? Just the fact that they would mislead on party ID is interesting to say the least…I think w/ Obama being the first black president and being a man of the left…the left has forgotten any sense of integrity that they might have had left and are trying to push O past the finish line no matter what it may cost them on Nov. 7. Rove, Caddell, Will, Morris, Krauthammer, and the Univ.of Colorado study which has predicted these things accurately the past 8 times cannot all be wrong…
U of colorado retroactively predicted tne elections back to 80 but it is a new model.
And yes all those people can all be wrong just as the polls can be wrong
it would be nice if one reporter, just one, would ask a polling outfit why they think Obama is going to get almost the same percentage of turnout as ’08.
Of why every state that’s not in contention (read and blue both) has moved 10-15 points towards Romney but not battle ground states..
Hey, if Obama gets the turnout, everything we’ve been talking about all week will have been wrong.
it just doesn’t compute with what we’ve seen so far of the, you know, real numbers.
Of why every state that’s not in contention (*red* and blue both) has moved 10-15 points towards Romney but not battle ground states.
Your point raises another that I’ve been meaning to mention. Isn’t it a bit convenient that this 0bama effect is limited to battleground states? You know, Romney swings around the Imaginot Firewall into northern blue states and polls well…because nobody responsible for the aforementioned convenient effect planned to need to do it for Pennsylvania, too?
Chicago early voting way down.
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/massive-decrease-early-and-absentee-voting-chicago_660299.html
One Trackback
[…] Read the whole story at BattlegroundWatch […]