Reuters/Ipsos Finds the Wardobe, Polls Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado

I’m tempted not to blog these polls.  Reuters/Ipsos polled Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado and have a likely voter screen but the internal data they provide is the registered voter information.  WHO CARES?  THEY ARE NOT VOTING.  THAT IS WHY YOU HAVE A LIKELY VOTER SCREEN.

For example, in the very first state you see two very curious things among the worthless registered voter group.  Allegedly Romney only gets 87% of the Republican while Obama gets 93% of the Democrat vote.  Highly suspect in a state breaking hard for Romney right now.  Next we see Obama, not Romney, leads by 12-points among Independents 39 to 23.  Who did they poll? Northern Virginia “Independents” Chuck Todd and John Harwood? Was this Virgil Goode’s hometown?  These polling organizations are just wasting time at this point.  I’ll give you the data but these are just more unrealistic polls to feed into the Obama narrative.

Virginia

Obama leads by 3-points, 48 to 45. Third party candidates get 2% and 5% remain Undecided

The party ID is D +3 (Dem 33, Rep 30, Ind 33). This is at least is in between the last two Presidential elections but a shade  closer to the 2008 turnout of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27).  In 2004 the 2004 turnout was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).  Also Independents are a little low but the polling results on Independents as indicated above is bizarre to the point of disqualifying.

Ohio

Obama leads by 1-point, 46 to 45.  Third party candidates get 3% and 6% remain Undecided.

Reuters make the long-distance call to Marist in Narnia to come up a “representative” sample of Ohio. The party ID was D +9 (Dem 38, Rep 29, Ind 29). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  And as we have shown you numerous times, the real 2008 party ID was really D +5. Obama leads among Independents by 23-points 46 to 23.  Umm-hmm. Just because Obama’s entire victory in 2008 was based on his phenomenal early vote advantage and it has completely disappeared in 2012 doesn’t mean he isn’t going to BEAT his 2008 performance.  Silly me to complain.  I must be a poll-truther.

Florida

All tied up 47 to 47 with 2% voting third-party and 5% Undecided

The party ID is R +1 (Dem 35, Rep 36, Ind 25).  Seems to be a fair split between the previous 2 Presidential elections. In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Funny how Obama doesn’t lead when polls don’t overwhelmingly sample Democrats. Independents support Obama 49 to 28 and Kate Upton is grilling me a steak in my kitchen right now.  Yea, that’s the ticket.  Too few Independents are sampled in this survey but like I wrote earlier, this poll has non-sensical numbers throughout it and I need to get to that steak or Kate gets grumpy so on to the next state.

Colorado

Romney leads by 2-points 47 to 45 45 with 4% voting third-party and 4% Undecided

The party ID is R +3 (Dem 27, Rep 30, Ind 41). A fair party ID that splits 2008 R +1 (Dem 30, Rep: 31, Ind: 39) and R +9 (Dem: 29, Rep: 38, Ind: 33) in 2004.  The slight shade towards Democrats is plausible in a state trending that way. What do you know, a fair party ID and Romney’s winning.  I’m on pins and needles wondering what we will see on Tuesday! (I’m not really) Romney leads among Independents by 13-points, 38 to 25.  Even showing Romney winning this is dumb since it is registered voters and there are no many not choosing a candidate.  But Notre Dame won despite doing everything humanly possible to not win so I’ll be nice and go see how Kate and my steaks are doing.

64 Comments

  1. AJ
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    more kate upton references. me likey!

    • damien
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I knew her when I lived up in michigan and worked on her uncles campaign..she was about 14 or 15…sweet as sugar

  2. Bucknutz
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html

    Romney UP 1 in Minnesota

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That is huge, Romney + 1 with Obama only at 45%?

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That poll should put this blog in particular into a tizzy and it confirms speculation about Obama going to Wisconsin tomorrow being that he was really trying to reach into Minnesota without the stigma of having to cross the state line. Romney is about to appear in Colorado for the last rally of the day – when Ann Romney introduced him earlier she seemed to tear up & seemed to me like the moment she knew & realized she was really introducing the next POTUS. I think that must have been after the campaign insiders got the results of that Minn. poll. Vote for love of country and GO R&R GO!

  3. Nkracher
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hello, i’m new here and to reading polls but when it says the 1177 people were interviewed “online” does that mean they did not call these people and this is an internet poll?

    • Nkracher
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      or am i breathing to much into that.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, an internet poll. Worthless.

  4. Cyrus Fox
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sorry to nitpick but shouldn’t it say
    “Allegedly Romney only gets 87% of the Republican while Obama gets 93% of the DEMOCRAT vote”
    See CAP

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nitpick all you want. I hate mistake so I appreciate the comment. Notre Dame probably turned the ball over in the end zone while I was writing that.

  5. novahockey
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Go Irish!

  6. JAF
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    actually even though Reuters is run by the Arabs and is polling garbage..

    romney is STILL leading or tied in two of them!

    i would rather it be 46-45 in Ohio and who cares about the ridiculous VA polls because we know for a fact that VA is going to be easier to win than Ohio…

    anyone disagree that these crazy D+ samples are actually good news for ROMNEY?

    • trux
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I disagree strongly. The “bandwagon effect” helps Obama tremendously.

      • Prescient11
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

        Is this guy a troll? trux, of course, the f’ing media is using this to help obama. you bet they are. that, and they are crappy pollsters or don’t have the balls to do a real D/R split.

  7. SpiritOF1776
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in Virginia, the Richmond area and Romney ain’t losing this baby, no way.

  8. JAF
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    also, anyone notice how even with garbage over democratic sampling-

    obama NEVER gets to 50 in ANY poll?!

    that used to mean something- let’s pray it still means something come election day.

    maybe i am crazy- but watching Romney and Ryan they don’t look and sound like THEY think they are going to lose..

    are they great liars with a great poker face, or just oblivious to reality? or do they know something we don’t…

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Man, this is what I’ve been telling myself for days, you are so right! If Romney and his campaign actually think he’s losing and are just bluffing then they are the best actors on the face of the planet. Academy Awards all around!

  9. Guest
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Virtually every poll I’ve seen before these have shown Romney up with FL & VA indies, and down among CO indies.

    This poll has everything reversed. Complete garbage, IMO.

  10. Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    is Kate even old enough to vote Keith? 🙂

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      She’s old enough for everything.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Am I the only one on this blog who doesn’t know who Kate Upton is?

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, I looked her up right after posting that. I dunno, maybe I’m just weird, but give me someone who is interesting and brings something uniquely attractive to the table. Not just some generic swimsuit model with regular features and a fortunate mole in the right place… but I’m sure I’m in the minority.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      hmm, just looked her up… meh…

      • AJ
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

        meh…what???? She is a grade a hottie

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

        I don’t know, she seems boring to me, if you’re into girl-next-door then why not look… um… next door.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

        Where do you live, nvClark. I want to visit your neighbor!

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

        LOL, Texas, but actually, rereading what I just wrote I am wondering what the heck I’m doing debating a swimsuit model on a politics forum. I must be getting bored talking about an election that I consider to be mostly a foregone conclusion at this point. I’m going to self moderate and stop posting from here on. I’ll surely keep watching until election day and maybe check back to see what Keith does with the site after the election results but before I go I just want to say thanks to everyone here, and to Keith specifically. This site and all of it’s commenters have been awesome! Really. Awesome.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

        We made need to have nvClark provide proof of citizenship after that comment. Why do you hate America?

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

        Aww man, Kate Upton is not the only hottie in America, why are you hating on real life American women? 🙂

  11. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New UNH poll: 47/47

  12. M.White
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2012/11/03/breaking_naacp_takes_over_polling_station_advocates_for_president_obama_at_houston_polling_location

  13. M.White
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-hit-by-storm-backlash/

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Dick is bi-polar. That is all.

  14. Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Duane Patterson made a great point over in Hot Air’s Green Room. McCain drew more right before the election to the same venue Obama was at in Cleveland last night. Obama got 2800 and McCain 4200. Meanwhile, Romney got 30K+ in a stadium full of people that had to wait for hours in the cold to see him.

    Then there’s the “this is record early voting” kind of stuff, but Romney is doing very well. And if Romney’s camp is right, if most of those banked votes are less likely voters then there’s a red storm rising on election day. Methinks a lot of the likely voters that have banked votes for Romney have done so to help track the day (me) or get people to the polls.

    There will be a lot of discussion after about how all these polls got things so wrong. My guess is the Obama Admin played a part in encouraging it, in selling a strong Democratic electorate and turnout. So much of the media will end up looking like fools. That’s when they’ll take their revenge and finally start talking about Benghazi, Fast & Furious, and all the other messes of the administration. I think they might make Obama’s last 2.5 months a nightmare for him. Not because they suddenly became conservative, but because they’ve had his back and his people made them look like fools.

    The meltdown will be delicious.

  15. Jon
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    MITT IS GOING TO WIN!

    Historic Results comparasioN calculated from Rass Party ID since 2004 below, ITS DAMN ACCURATE TOO!

    Year R D I Diff ChangeI Accutal Margin Democrat Republican Election Margin % of R Winning I
    04 37.3 37.9 24.8 0.6 0 48.3 50.7 2.4 0.540322581
    08 33.4 39 27.6 5.6 2.8 52.9 45.7 7.2 0.445652174
    12 36.8 34.2 29 -2.6 1.4

    Projected Margin Romney Obama Bush Kerry McCain Obama
    53% of Independents 52.17 47.83 50.444 49.556 48.028 51.972
    50% of Independents 51.3 48.7 49.7 50.3 47.2 52.8
    47% of Independents 50.43 49.57 48.956 51.044 46.372 53.628

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m waiting for him to put up his October numbers. He’s being awfully coy.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      Could someone tell me then if Rasmussen predicts R +2 this election year, as is stated above, WHY is he using D+2 in his polls?? He’s also made his official “prediction” that it’s too close to call, unless he is blind to his own data he cannot possibly believe that.
      ~ Brittany

  16. M.White
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332371/tale-two-crises-mark-steyn
    This is a must read and the comments at the bottom of the article!

  17. Svigor
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    These polling organizations are just wasting time at this point.

    I wouldn’t say that. Artists have a term for when they make a mistake and like the results: “happy accidents.”

    These same liberal universities and media companies secreting these polls will turn around and decry Republican “vote-suppression” (AKA voter ID) with straight faces.

  18. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anyone know size of Romney crowd in CO tonight? Watching live on C-SPAN but they never pan the audience.

    • O'BuhBye
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      18k. Filled.

  19. M.White
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There is something going on in Colorado right now during Romney’s speech, some unwanted protesters are trying to drown him out but the audience is doing a good job at laughing them off. Now they are chanting to USA to keep the protesters voices from being heard. They are getting desperate. All over twitter Obama’s supporters are talking of riots and death threats if Romney wins! We had better get prepared. Arm yourselves my friends!

    • SpiritOF1776
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Retired military myself and armed, tell em to bring it! :0)

      • Kardinal11
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

        Lol. A liberal uprising eh. Wonder which side will be better armed?

        Your truly,

        Bitterly clinging

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      Erm, I was there at the rally tonight. There were no protestors. At all. There were a lot of morons (I’m assuming drunk) that kept yelling things out, and I mean constantly, while Romney was talking. But they were negatives against Obama or positives towards Romney. No protestors.
      ~ Brittany

  20. Jon
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, if you get a second, i know that you have been following Party Id for awhile. I have got some analysis to pass along. Anyway I can contact?

    • Prescient11
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Jon, looking forward to your thoughts. That is a HUGE missing piece of the puzzle that needs to be looked at.

  21. easternimm
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Dems opinion about race in Nevada:

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83244.html?hp=t2_3

  22. O'BuhBye
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I feel like I am watching Reagan. I hope the outcome is similar.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      My father said the exact same thing at the CO rally tonight! 🙂
      ~ Brittany

  23. Kyle
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Take a look at the Colorado poll. If 70% of Dems have voted early and 53% of Repubs have voted early, why did the Secretary of State post that 34.6% of ballots returned were from Dems and 36.9% from Repubs? Do you believe Reuters or the Sec. of State of Colorado?

    These numbers do not add up. If Obama was ahead 50/43 in early voting in a state where 80% of the vote is completed before election, there would no chance for Romney to finish the race +2. Very fuzzy math.

  24. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PPP has a new PA poll out showing Obama +6. No link to actual survey. I’m sure it’s junk but would be good to see if anyone can find it.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      it’s on rcp. D+10, which is a little more than 08. Lots of crossover from Democrats though.

  25. Kardinal11
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wondering if my state is getting tight(Virginia). Watching Rudy with my kid and literally every commercial is an ad. Split is about 50-50. Really didn’t expect Obama to be spending here at this point.

    • Ron
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      Makes sense if OH didn’t pan out and if he can’t make headway in FL. He needs to keep Mitt from reaching 270. VA may be his last best hope, even if he’s down.

  26. SpiritOF1776
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am watching the Richmond, VA news right now. They are reporting that absentee/early voting is way down from 2008. GOP landslide baby!

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