Obama Campaign Acknowledges Early Vote Might Be Cannibalized

This is huge.  I’ve avoided this topic because quite honestly I don’t really trust the data.  But Major Garrett has yet another incredible scoop direct from the Obama campaign.  Guys, if this is true  . . . we’re going to really like November 6:

 

134 Comments

  1. Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK, I’m too dumb to follow this. Can someone brighter than I am spell out what this means in language a 3rd grader would understand?

    • damien
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      all their voters turning out now…none left for the 6th

      • KN
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

        But wasn’t that the case anyway? Even in a horrible GOP year like 2008, McCain voters actually outnumbered Obama ones on Election Day. So call me stupid, but I’m not following.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

        KN: apparently this year, Romney’s election day voters would VASTLY outnumber Obama’s.

      • B.I.O.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

        KN–

        There are better and worse early voters from Obama’s perspective. What they hope to do is use the earl voting period to turn out the less motivated Democrats who are unreliable on election day. Then they would get 100 (arbitrary number) early votes of unmotivated voters and 100 highly motivated voters on election day. It would be much worse for them if they get 100 motivated votes earl and then have to rely on unmotivated voters on election day.

      • Jon
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

        The Dems have used the extended time in voting to bus unenthusiastic votes to the polls. It’s a bit harder to get those voters to the polls on the 1st Tuesday of November.

        I know Keith isn’t keeping track. However, if we extrapolate the numbers from NC, which has 30% of african American vote in EV, and they only make up 20% if the vote, then you can expect O to have used +5% of his guarantee vote on the 6th. You don’t want to use your strong supporters prior to the end.

        It’s like a swim meet, you always use your anchor to bring up the rear for a strong finish. If this is neck and neck, then Romney will win.

    • Steve
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t take my word for it but this is my interpretation, highly enthused Obama voters in Ohio have already voted but the campaign IS NOT NEAR where it was in 2008. Translation, Romney should be able to CRUSH Obama’s early voting lead on election day when all the highly enthused Romney voters to go the polls because they have not voter yet.

      Anyone agree?

      • KN
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

        Here’s an interesting point on Ohio – Karl Rove (and another source – can’t remember, so if someone can point out to me) said that in 2008 (the zenith of his popularity), Obama won Ohio by ~260K votes. Right now, with early voting, when you look at how much Dems are down and GOP is up, it nearly sums to 260K. If true and no other major voter fraud, does that mean Ohio is essentially wrapped up for RR?

      • Philanthropic_Extortionist
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

        KN: Yep

    • mconnery
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      you are not alone…

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

        Instead of the DEMS, getting out the low propensity voters, the one’s less likely to vote on election day, they are getting out their more likely to vote voters. Thus election day is a disaster, if the GOP turnout is as high as expected. Also the GOP are targetting low propensity voters for early voting as much as possible. That is why if this information is correct about the DEMS cannabilising their vote. It is potentially a disaster for the DEMS. Karl Rove has also indicated this is exactly what the DEMS have done.

        You can understand the DEMS reasoning for doing this, it was to beat the GOP in early voting, to maintain the illusion that they are winning, therefore allow the narrative to be “the inevitability of Obama”, the pollsters can skew the ev data (which they are doing) and it all falls into place. The problem is that the strategy is predicated on the GOP having a turnout similar to 08 or worse, which will not be the case! Also ironically the GOP effort in EV has been stellar, so they have done extremely well in EV, which also was not expected by the DEMS.

        In the words of Drudge after the first debate in denver:

        UH OH

    • David Weed
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There’s no scoop here! A vote banked is a vote banked, people. Most of what Major Garrett said was that “the Republicans say…”, followed by an admission by the Obama campaign that “at this time, they’re NOW banking their high propensity voters”. Well, it’s the Saturday before the election, for heaven’s sake. No one has suggested that ALL of the early voting was going to be, to quote the truncated clip, “3s or 4s for the Dems”.

      There is NO cannibalizing of voting. ANY vote cast before election day is a vote in the bank. If anything, early voting, even by “guaranteed” voters frees up resources, allows for more possible volunteering/aiding in getting others to the polls, and likely allows for shorter lines in voting districts.

      Sorry, Keith. I think you’re desperate for even the appearance of good news.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

        (giggling)

      • Freddy
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

        LOL! David – is your last name weed or is that what you smoke?

        I think early voting was a wash or slight R lead. I am a conservative more than a Republican. I vote on voting day. I do not like early voting or mail in voting. I think many conservatives prefer voting on voting day. It is a duty and responsibility.

      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

        Davis,

        Obviously you don’t understand PsyOps which (unfortunately) the Dems AND the CorruptMedia have honed into an art form which the Pubs are slowly learning.

      • Kevin
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

        Living in denial must be a b**ch.

      • ed
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        The curious Mr. Weed’s argument actually makes no sense. I’ve tried to lay it up-right look it up and down, measure its width its length, its shadings and contours and cannot quite get it into focus. Cannibalizing refers to “propensity” voting and clearly distinguishes between votes cast early and those cast on 11/6/12. The distinction turns on the difference between a high disposition to vote and a more attenuated disposition. This distinction is really very easy to conceptualize and only a fool would ignore it: I ask Mr. Weed to simply reflect on his everyday experience and ask: if we are really disposed to do something its more likely we will actually do it early. Whereas, if we are more tepidly disposed we may defer and actually never do it. If you get all the gung-ho folks voting early, then the remaining pool may not come out and vote at the rate expected. So you see there is a obvious clear distinction between banked votes and banked votes.

      • Evan3457
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

        As I said in another thread, don’t bogart that “weed”, David; pass it around the room.

  2. Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Please keep posting positive news – need the encouragement NOW!

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks but I’m about to disappear at 3:30 ET

      • novahockey
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

        Go Irish!

        /husband of Domer. i have been assimilated.

    • Philanthropic_Extortionist
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      jazcox: Relax, man (or woman). Don’t watch TV this weekend, hang with some friends and only check this site every once in a while. You’ll feel great come Mon. This thing is in the bag!

  3. kenberthiaume
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    it means the early dem votes are just people who would have voted dem on election day anyway. It’s not like they’re “new found” votes. To some extent that’s obvious though…there’s some cannibalization, how much?

    In NC it’s 48/32 D/R in early voting, but in 2008 it was like 52/28 D/R so it’s looking much better. The number of votes is similar to, to last time, which means there MUST be less dems voting if there are more republicans…..but what does it all mean? Will it even out on election day? Or does the increase in rep. showing indicate a BETTER ie more republican turnout out of their available voter pool, or does it just indicate cannibalization? Who knows.

    • David Weed
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How can anyone tell? The Republicans lost the early voting battle in 2008. Surely both D’s and R’s will try to take advantage of the EV this year.

    • Mike
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      Take just about 20 or 25 percent of those DEM votes in NC and place them in the REP column, as they are called DIXIE Democrats just in name only to vote for local DEM representatives. Now add the majority of the IND and vuola!! Romney wins NC……believe me, and is not going to be close.

  4. stephanie
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow ! If this is true, we will be able to set fireworks and get wine out very early on the 6th!

  5. nvClark
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m putting my stake in the ground at an estimate of 330 to 350.

    • stephanie
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My estimte is at 339 for Mitt.

      • jarrad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

        I’m at 325

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

        doh, yeah, I probably should have specified, my number is for Romney too… 330 to 350.

      • A.D.S.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

        315 for Romney. 223 for Obama.

    • Philanthropic_Extortionist
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      538 for RR!

      • Philanthropic_Extortionist
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

        Really though, 289 RR! BOOM!

    • Colvinus
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m gonna say 316 for Romney. Gets New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and Colorado but just misses Oregon, loses Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota too. Gets one electoral vote from Maine, cause why not.

      • RhodyKev
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

        Yep 316 that’s 2 of us

  6. Big D
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I absolutely believe this is happening to the Obama vote. However, how do we know that the GOP isn’t “cannibalizing” some of its Nov 6th vote too?

    • KN
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good point. I would love for someone to answer this question…anyone?

      • Tedley
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

        Yes – Rove explained that about 80% of early Ohio Repub votes are from people who voted not more than once in the last three elections. Or, little cannibalization. For Dems, somthing like 75% of their early vote is from Dems who voted at least twice in the last three. Or, lots of cannibalization. In addition, they aren’t accounting for the fact that there are LOTS of Dems from coal country Ohio that have voted early. All Dems – all for Mitt – xause Bamster is KILLING Ohio Coal. Mitt’s way ahead in Ohio. I keep saying – at least 5 points.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

        I’ve spoken to a few people (not high-ups, but not volunteers either) in the Romney campaign. The Republican party KNOWS how often you’ve voted, and the lists of people they call actually filter OUT “perfect voters” in certain precincts. That is, if you’ve voted in every special election, general election, primary, etc., then you’ll likely only be asked to donate, not vote early.

        In short, the GOP/Romney campaign is intentionally targeting voters who are less likely to go to the polls.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m sure the GOP is “cannibalizing” some, it would be very hard not to, but Obama (and Michelle Obama) have called early voting their “secret weapon”. And I’ve read multiple claims that they are busing people to the polls straight from their rallies. I’ve never been to a rally (no one cares about my state) but my guess would be that rally-goers are not typically low propensity voters and probably skew very heavily towards high-propensity. (why would you be fired up enough to go to a rally and then not even vote in the end). In other words, there may be some “cannabalizing” in the GOP, but the difference is in the strategies of the campaigns, supposedly the Romney campaign is targeting their early voting efforts at voters who are less likely to actually follow through and vote, while the Obama campaign is targeting it at everyone indiscriminately and busing rally participants to the polls. All of whom can then not vote for him on election day, thus making his turnout then that much weaker.

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

        “Why would you be fired up enough to go to a rally and then not even vote in the end”?

        Free phone??

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It has to do with the targeting – the Republican strategy has been to identify these folks that are between the cracks – maybe somebody who hasn’t voted in the last election but did (for Bush) the election before, voters in Republican leaning districts that went for Obama in 2008, etc. – then getting those people to vote for Republican ticket & get those people to the polls & casting votes even before Nov. 6 – and then take it to heart & the bank that the “high propensity” voters – who regularly vote Republican, etc., needed no such nudging. The belief & know acknowledged fact is that the Democrats have been spending all this time and effort to get their “high propensity” voters out – i.e. the buses filled with people from hospitals, the unions, etc. – they’ve been the ones that have required such intensive effort, scaremongering, etc. – except like Michelle Obama trying to woo blacks at northeastern colleges yesterday – they’re still working on the base of their base – which means when it comes to Tuesday – the early votes are what they are with hope and expectation that the remaining include LOTS of high propensity Republican voters determined to push R&R OVER THE TOP!

      • Big D
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

        I am definitely a “5” for R&R and nothing is going to stop me from voting on E-Day. I live in DC and made the decision to vote on E-Day (instead of absentee) so that there would be a better than 50% chance that my popular vote would actually be counted (rather than discarded due to my registration status).

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      To an extent both sides are doing it. Mitt urged the crowd at the huge rally last night to vote early. At this point it must make sense.

  7. Bob
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What makes you think Romney isn’t doing the same with his early voters?

    • margaret
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The Romney campaign said it was going after the less-than-likely-to-vote voters first and convince them to vote early. This saves the very-likely-to-vote voters for election day voting. That is a very smart strategy.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

        Exactly, The Romney campaign has stated that their campaign is targetted at less likely voters, and the Obama campaign is more of a shotgun approach where they bus rally participants to the polls who then cannot vote on election day. The difference is one of strategy.

  8. RJ
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 2:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Arizona isn’t exactly a battleground state, but the name “Romney” has been written multiple times today in the sky above the most liberal city in the state (Tucson)

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Need to make certain Romney voters show up to help Flake. It’s why Romney is heading to Orlando. He’s helping Mack there

      • Dan
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

        Exactly, There are important senate races in all major battlegrounds; Mandel-Ohio, Smith-PA, Mack-FL, Allen-VA. This can explain a lot of the geography of where the RR campaign has been and is going in these last couple days.

      • KN
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

        I wish Jim DeMint had endorsed Connie Mack like he did the others. Mack needs our support. I love his penny plan. He’s a solid fiscal conservative.

    • arizona rules
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey RJ…saw that too at my kids soccer game…so odd to see anything Republican in Tucson. Refreshing admittedly. Also, my kids high school had a mock election and Romney 61- Obama 39. If Tucson is thinking Romney, sure it portends well for the country as a whole.

      • Japes
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

        Probably more accurate than Marist!

  9. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Major Garrett, who I think is about as middle-of-the road a reporter as MSDNC has, looks like he is going to cry as he is saying this. If 11/6 late p.m. into 11/7 early a.m. is going well for us, am definitely going to have to tune in to MSDNC to watch their heads explode.

    • JW
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Garrett was a foxnews white house reporter for years. I have no idea where he is on the map politically.

      • David
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

        Sounds very encouraging.

        Also, Major Garrett caught Obama in two lies when the O was trying to answer his question. He had that sly smile when reporting the president gave a “conflciting answer”. My guess is Garrett is a bit skeptical of Obama.

      • novahockey
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

        My impression of Garrett is that he’s a rare breed — and honest broker of a journalist.

    • Blackcloud
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Garrett doesn’t work for NBC News; he’s at National Journal. Before that he was at FNC. Before that, CNN. Before that, ABC. He’s a straight shooter.

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Garrett is pretty fair. He wrote an article several months back based on interviews with Axelrod and others which had them oozing bravado and a sense of false confidence. He did not refute them, but he hinted at his own disbelief. He entitled the article, “The Confidence Game.” It was an ambiguous title that could just as easily have been called “The Con Game.”

      This is my own personal take on the Obama campaign from the beginning. It has been an elaborate con job, bolstered by phony media fanfare and phony polls. It was why they dreamed of filling that Charlotte arena for Obama’s acceptance speech at his convention, and why they failed. They wanted to support their fakery with a sensational climactic speech before a crowd of 70,000 cheering fans. But the scheme collapsed under the weight of solid reality. The fans just ain’t there. They’re not there in OH either.

  10. Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Traditionally R’s go to the polls more on election day. Also if there is an exceptional amount of enthusiasm it often translates in some new voters.

  11. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The GOP is able to track this with a voter data file. They have showed a chart that explains this to be the case in Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331992/oh-ia-nv-democrats-may-be-cannibalizing-their-election-day-votes-promoting-early-votin

    That’s one big reason why I am not as down as some folks here with Nevada.

    • Posted November 4, 2012 at 2:05 am | Permalink | Reply

      It is easier on someone if they are being pessimistic and are proven wrong, then visa versa…

  12. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama’s final campaign day:

    MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5:

    Grassroots Rally with President Obama and Bruce Springsteen in Madison, WI

    Where:

    Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard
    Between East Wilson Street and West Doty Street
    Madison, WI

    Crowd Doors Open: 7:00 AM CST

    Grassroots Rally with President Obama, Bruce Springsteen and JAY Z in Columbus

    Where:

    Nationwide Arena
    200 West Nationwide Boulevard
    Columbus, OH 43215

    Crowd Doors Open: 12:00 pm EST.

    Grassroots Rally with President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and Bruce Springsteen in Des Moines, IA

    Where:

    Des Moines’ East Village
    Des Moines, IA

    Crowd Doors Open: 7:30 PM CST

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He’s basically trying to get as many people as possible to a few rallies. That he’s spending his last day in Madison WI is really all I’d need to know, two months earlier, for me to tell you he’s behind in the state.

      Romney is going to sweep all three of these states.

      • Dan
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

        WI, IA and OH. What does that tell you? Prevent defense, the two most frustrating words to a football viewer at the end of a game. I find that very telling and good news indeed.

      • Dan
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        The playing field is as blue as Boise State.

    • John
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      7 AM in Madison? Ha, ha, ha – the retired hippies might crawl out of bed for Bruce that early but he can forget about the university students showing up at that time of day. Expect another sparse crowd.

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The very qualities that allowed Mitt to win over a liberal state like MA will serve him well in places like PA, IA and WI.

  13. John
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Furthermore, if they are cannibalizing one would expecte them to actually be outperforming 2008 but they are far from it in the key battlegrounds. Quite the opposite in fact. Hannity likes to say 2007 was the end of journalism in America due to the adoring media coverage BO received. Well, 2012 might be remembered as the end of weighted polling as we watch it CRASH-AND-BURN before our very keyboards.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am sure that one will be able to retro-fit the polling to see where it went wrong, and how it could have predicted the outcome. And in fact, we already know what the problem is and what the solution is. It is to include DRI in the weighting alongside age, sex…

      • Anonymous Conservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

        I’ve read that in 1992 elections in the UK, almost all of the polls had the Labour Party winning by a couple of points. Then on election day, the Conservative Party won the election by a couple of points. The phenomenon became known as the “Shy Tory Factor”. Millions of conservative people in the UK either lied to the pollsters about their intentions or weren’t responding to pollsters at all. Nowadays, polling firms in the UK always take their raw numbers and then add a couple of points onto the Conservative Party total to get a more accurate figure.

        Harry Mount of The Telegraph believes he saw the same thing happen in the U.S. with the 2004 exit polls. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3612634/Republicans-shyly-make-their-presence-felt.html If you remember, the exit polls for the Wisconsin recall election were also greatly off, predicting a dead-heat when Scott Walker went on to win by about 7 points. Add to that a possible reoccurrence of the Bradley/Wilder Effect, and that might explain why the polls are so off this election.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

        Yes anonymous, that is exactly true about what happened in the UK. Labour was projected to win, but they lost on election day, due to turnout of tories, that was not picked up by the pollsters.
        However, it is also complicated by this fact – there was a rally for the Labour party, where the leader got a little carried away and did a Howard Dean, but actually worse. This cost them votes, a lot more than perhaps they realised!

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The polls have been weaponized…no doubt about it.

  14. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama campaign probably expected to be in OH the day before election day. WI and IA, not so much. I am sure they would have preferred to be in VA and FL and NC.

  15. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Michael Barone has some major cajones putting his reputation on the line like he’s done. 315 to 223 for Romney. I was thinking about making mine public too, but I think I’d rather just give him major props for coming out there with this prediction.

    Thing is, if he’s right, I see no reason why NV, ME02, and MI wouldn’t also fall into Romney’s lap.

    But I am right on with his 315 mark in my gut. But, I really want ME02 to go Romney too, as that will make the ’16 and ’20 campaigns fret all over Maine for it’s 1 EV scenarios. It might also spur some more states to go this route.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m in agreement here with about 305-320. I think there is a chance that PA is called early when the Eastern Philly suburb returns come in even, say around 10 PM. If PA is called, then suddenly it’s over.

      My gut said R would rebound after the first debate. My gut said PA would be in play. My gut also says that R wins PA fairly easily, in a shocker. Susquehanna has polling in each of the 50 PA State Senate districts, and they know the state best. I trust them. R was up 49-45 10 days ago and I suspect its higher now, although I haven’t seen the latest poll that is supposedly the same.

      If I’m O, I’m in a quandry.

      This situation is crying out for a last minute trip to Inner City Philly or to the South Suburbs to boost turnout margins, perhaps squeezing it in on the way home from Iowa Monday. If I do that, though, I signal that the election is over, and reduce D turnout costing a Senate seat or two, and perhaps cost me points in OH, which I still may be able to do.

      What a choice. Go to PA to shore it up and shock my voters into inactivity, or not go to it and risk one of the greatest electoral miscalculations in history.

      Checkmate. These R guys are smart. Vicious, like I thought, and smart.

    • RhodyKev
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No Tribe – agree, but one word sums up NV and MI, UNIONS…

  16. Mass liberty
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So this means these very same people are being double counted in the polls.

  17. Brad
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Field poll out today has CA at 53-39. Assuming Undecideds break 5-3 for R….That’s 56-44 O. O won the state in 2008, 61-37. 12 pt. improvement for R.

    Again, you can see even in uncontested, deep blue states the same swing you do nationally, which just “coincidentally” maps to a national 5 pt win for R. Yet, over and over again we are told that states like OH won’t swing from 2008 by 10-12 points…which just happens to translate to R winning OH by 5-7 pts.

    • Anonymous Conservative
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RCP average for Ohio right before the 2008 election: 48.8% Obama, 46.3% McCain. RCP average as of right now: 49.3% Obama, 46.4% Romney. So in order to believe the polls in Ohio right now, you need only believe that Obama is doing better among voters now than in 2008. Do even hardcore leftists believe that?

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes, exactly. The polls in the blue states show a swing of 10-15 pts towards R. But they don’t show that swing in the swing states. Yet the Early voting totals do show similar swings

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Good point. It’s a combination of bad president-good candidate.

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      And look at the crowds. Romney’s getting crowds four times bigger than McCain’s. Now Obama’s getting McCain-sized crowds–if he’s lucky. Enthusiasm way down–yet the polls are way up, better than ’08?

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I suppose it’s possible to argue Obama’s ground game in OH is so superior that it will indeed approximate or even transcend ’08, despite the apparent lack of enthusiasm. But if his ground game is so wonderful, why haven’t they done better with the early voting?

  18. mchlgregg
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Everybody’s optimism is very infectious! I can’t wait to hear Fox News projects that Gov. Romney will be the 45th President of the United States!

  19. Brad
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    As of today, I have R 293, O 245

    R wins IA, WI!, PA!, NC, FL, VA
    O wins NV, OH!, MN, NH!, MI, NM

    And Axelrod sharpens his razor Tuesday night.

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      IF WI and PA go Romney I have a really hard time believe OH won’t.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

        Agree in terms of historical trends alone. But I think the EV which favors Dems in OH affects how you have to think about that state, even versus historical considerations. PA has no EV and WI has a completely different EV setup and OFA didn’t push here. You got to admit my prediction would be beautifully ironic. OH Firewall melted by PA/WI flank.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

        Should say that PA has absentee voting, but no in-person early voting.

      • Jim S.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        Hey don’t get me wrong, if PA and WI want to make OH look silly and ruin the “GOP must have OH to win” conventional wisdom they are more then welcome to.

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Put OH (and MAYBE NH and/or NV) in the Romney column too and I’m with you.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

        Ha ha! Would love to be wrong about those…

    • arizona rules
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hey Brad…No way Romney loses Ohio…McCain got 47% and he is well…McCain…Romney easily adds 3% more on top…

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

        Kerry put in a massive effort in 04 to win the state and only lost 2, lost 4 nationally. O has an unprecedented effort here and though I think we are less than 1% apart between both candidates, I see O grinding out a late night Cuyahoga Cnty sort of death march to victory. That said, with so much energy poured in OH, O can’t respond (which full resources) to the R surge in WI and PA…so, at any rate, that’s my thinking.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        which = with…good grief.

      • Anonymous Conservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

        @Brad – I’m hearing second-hand from folks on the ground in Ohio that Romney’s ground game in Ohio has significantly exceeded even W’s effort there in 2004, so I’m hoping that negates O’s ground game.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m with you in thinking that PA goes Romney before OH. Crazy.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

        🙂

      • RhodyKev
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

        We have the crystal ball

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have a feeling that GMR has a better shot in PA than OH as well.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Haha, I would love to see OH go to O and PA go to R to see the look on all the pundits faces! But the political experts say its impossible, so we’ll see!

    • Ken in Bama
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As Keith said a few days ago (paraphrasing) “xxxxxx, you magnificent bastard!!” Props to Patton for that. On a battlefield if you give up ground the center (Ohio), you attack the shoulders (WI, PA) and cut the head off. The way the Dems are running around up there I never would have believed that we could take WI and PA…but I am becoming a believer!!

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      But the early vote is down in OH compared to ’08, isn’t it?

  20. Big D
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hmmm … Could this be why Staten Island is being ignored the most by Obama/FEMA??? http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/why-staten-island-went-for-mccain/ (Staten Island went 52-47 for McCain in ’08)

    • Big D
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      REVENGE???

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      heh, well, the part that got hit is in the Obama 47 vote.

  21. KN
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BTW, why do I keep reading that Obama is ahead with early voters? I thought both Gallup and Pew said that Romney appears to have the early voting advantage 52 – 46.

    • Dan
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I believe it is nationwide vs battlegrounds but someone else can confirm.

  22. Jeni
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is off-topic, but I just saw a live interview with Ed Rendell on MSNBC (yes, opposition research as others have said). They were asking him about Romney coming into PA, and he was generally brushing it off as too little, too late. Interestingly not one of the (ahem) reporters asked him about Bill Clinton’s plans for Monday, nor did he offer anything up about it. Hmmm…

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Problem is this. Casey ran a terrible statewide campaign, and Smith ran a good one, tying Casey directly to Obama for the better part of 2 months without a response. Same thing with Rothus is Western PA district 12–anti-O all the way.

      Add to that the general feeling here that R is an eastern Republican kind of like Corbett (the governor), the fact that O is dead west of Harrisburg due to his stance on coal, and suddenly things get interesting.

      O has been outspent here for the past 10 days at 10:1. Five R surrogates (Rubio, Ryan, etc) have been here in the past 24 hours. Who does O send? Lincoln Chafee. Lincoln F-ing Chaffee, as if anyone here knows who the F he is!

      In their arrogance they took PA for granted. Just like Dick Thornberg in 1988.

      If this happens, I love my state. Just love it.

      • Jeni
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

        Back at ya from Chester County! BTW, in that same interview, Rendell was asked about a tweet Rupert Murdoch had sent out saying Christie needed to come out for Romney again before the election. Rendell said if he were Romney, he’d have Christie at the Rally on Sunday…that it would be both good for Romney and Christie’s future in the party. My gut would be to keep Christie away at this point. No need to remind everybody of the lovefest with O. Any thoughts on that?

      • Svigor
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        Dick Thornberg? Isn’t that the name of the creepy reporter in the Die Hard movies? You see that a lot, people in movies named for people the producers hate, e.g., “Belloc” in Raiders of the Lost Ark.

      • RhodyKev
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

        Dufus Chaffe is is my gov here in RI, what a bafoon. Around here he is called Mr. 35% (he won with that amount of support in a 3 way race)

      • Blackcloud
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

        That was 1991 that Harris Wofford defeated Dick Thornburgh, not 1988. Wofford’s win was retrospectively taken as a sign of the coming Democratic wave that pushed Bubba into the White House.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ed Rendell makes me sick to my stomach for some reason.

  23. Neil in NC
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m in NC. Saw two Army Heavy Lift (CH-47 dual rotor) helicopters flying North over Raleigh this afternoon. I expect they’re going to NY.

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You will not read any MSM stories critical of FEMA, but it would seem that there is ample criticism to be leveled. Why did they just put out a bid for a humungous amount of bottled water yesterday, for delivery by the winning bidder on Monday? (And why are they taking 3 days to go through a bidding process in the first place, why not suspend the bidding requirement to get people water even if it’s not the “lowest cost bid” as demonstrated by a competitive bidding process?) Why did they not pre-position fuel in close proximity to the areas in NJ and NY where they knew the storm was going to be hitting hardest? Is there ANY doubt in anyone’s mind that, if the exact same things we see happening now were happening under Bush, you would have wall-to-wall coverage on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, NYT, WaPo and Time?

      http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/FEMA-Still-Doesn-t-Have-Bottled-Water-to-Distribute-Finally-Places-Large-Order-Today-for-Delivery-Monday

  24. Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Fewer than 200 people showed up to watch Wonder perform a handful of his hits at the early voting event in support of President Barack Obama.
    Obama for America Ohio, which hosted the rally, informed its nearly 34,000 followers on Twitter about the event around 10 a.m.
    A shuttle meant to take voters to the nearby Cuyahoga County Board of Elections left empty after Wonder’s final song because most said they had already voted.
    GREAT CROWDS RIGHT

    http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/11/few_know_about_stevie_wonder_a.html#incart_river

  25. JN
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    any hear about CO or NH for RR

    • David
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Regarding Colorado:

      Early voting ended Friday evening at 7:00 pm. Many EV stations along the front range reported long lines. Long as you were in line at 7:00 pm, you got to vote. Either a security guard or a “end-of-line” ticket was distributed to indicate the end of the voting line.

      Through Friday morning, early voting in Colorado has the Republicans with a narrow lead:

      Total number of ballots cast – 1,462,163
      Republicans voting – 547,150
      Democrats voting – 509,091
      Unaffiliated (independent) voting – 390,875
      third party voting – 15,047

      The three swing counties deemed critical to the Romney campaign:

      Jefferson County – Republican ballots ahead of Democrats by 6,160.
      Larimer County – Republican ballots ahead of Democrats by 4,624.
      Arapahoe County – Republican ballots ahead of Democrats by 3,209.

      The numbers do not include absentee and mail-in ballots that have been returned. The total number of registered voters is approximately 3.6 million.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

        Dave, if you don’t mind me making a few edits, I’d like to run your email. Let me know.

  26. Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Awesome blog! It is very refreshing to see adults acting like adults and discussing things high-p and low-p voters instead of calling each other names.

    Dose anyone know when the Ohio early voting numbers will be updated. I would be interested to se where Cuyahoga county ends up.

  27. Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The only way O wins is by cheating. Which for this immoral crowd is likely a top ten campaign strategy. I pray the Rs don’t assume that the D’s are too honorable to try and rig the election count process. Assume the worse for their motivation at all times.

  28. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For purely opposition research reasons, I am listening to Obama in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on now.

    Good grief. He is talking about special interest and superpacs and now he is going on about letters he reads at night after his days work.

    You could not make this stuff up. Who is speech writing for this guy?

    I sure hope that is not low information voters surrounding him, they probably think superpac is a pacman clone.

  29. Lew
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There is no good news for Romney anywhere. It will be an early night Tuesday.

    • rochierich
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Really see Florida I am Ronnies crowd compare to the community agitator

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink | Reply

      Maybe, but not the way you think.

  30. Zang
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In simple terms, it means this… certain voters are going to show up for their guy, no matter what.

    Others need to be prodded, called repeatedly, greeted by volunteers at their house, given bus rides, given “walking around money” and what have you in order to be bothered to vote.

    If this report is true, Obama is getting mostly the first group in EV, while Romney has been banking more of the second group in EV. The implications should be fairly obvious.

  31. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have a question. People are saying that early voting is skewing likely voters in polls. If O’s early voting numbers were higher in ’08, wouldn’t the polls have been more skewed in ’08? How accurate were they? I didn’t pay a lot of attention late because I knew what was coming.

    • Zang
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In 2008, state polls mostly underestimated Obama’s strength, while national polling was either “spot on” or actually overestimated his final margin.

      • rochierich
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        Like I said this does not equate for McCain 47 percent in Ohio with his atrocious campaign nobody showing up to his rally’s and now Mitt Romney will only get 1 percent more I don’t believe it

  32. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    1 more thing about Ohio if McCain got 47 percent with his atrocious campaign and all the hoopla about Obama RCP saying that Mitt Romney anymore only get 1 percent better than McCain? This makes no sense at all

    • Zang
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Playing Devil’s Advocate for a moment – 0 was going for a big EC win ’08, going after GOP states like NC, IN, AZ, and NC. Huge focus on Ohio this year.

      • Jim S.
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

        I think you campaign “on the margins” so to speak, 2008 was an easy year for Dems and when you’re dealt a good hand you can play for a big EC win like that. Now Obama has a record and his base isn’t like it was in 2008 and Republicans have an intensity edge. Obama isn’t camped out in OH because he *wants* to win in a sqeaker, it’s because he has to hold OH or his chances of winning are slim to none. Obama was pushing hard for states like MO,IN,NC in 2008, now his campaign fighting to hold on in WI,MN, and PA.

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