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42 Comments

  1. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:42 am | Permalink | Reply

    Welcome home and thank you for everything you have been doing under very trying circumstances. You are very much appreciated.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink | Reply

      I actually also wanted to comment as you will understand this living in Manhattan. Last night I saw something I never get to see. An ad airing in the NYC broadcast area for a presidential candidate. We rarely get to see these since campaigns started modeling their strategies around the electoral college. Jersey is blue, New York forgetaboutit and Connecticut blue as well. It was a superpac ad for Romney about 10:30 pm last night. I wondered why until I remembered that the NYC broadcast area also includes about three counties in Northeast Pa. If you can see an ad for Romney in NYC trying to reach Pa. 80 miles away then they really must see something in their internals for Pa.

  2. Allen
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    That’s excellent, for selfish reasons. I love your posts.

  3. Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    Welcome home. It is trying times for all of us in the northeast.

  4. karen
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    Glad to hear you are home. Thanks for all you are doing to keep people informed this election year. You have really helped me and a number of my family members, who also follow your blog.

  5. Stephen
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Wow Marist decided this week to survey the liberal part of Narnia. Apparently, in Ohio it is R29/D38/I32. Yet, O is only up 6. Also, the party Id is still D+9 with RV, so I guess Ds are just as excited in Narnia.

  6. Evan3457
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Mid pleasures and palaces though we may roam,
    Be it ever so humble, there’s no place like home.

    Thanks for everything, Keith.

  7. Prescient11
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:01 am | Permalink | Reply

    Yeah, best of luck Keith.

  8. Medicine Man
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Good for you. We take electricity for granted. I remember when we lost it a few years back for a week and nothing felt so good as to have things back to normal.

  9. Medicine Man
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rassmussen it out. Still 48/48. Indies holding steady at R+5. Certian R 46, Likely 2 Lean 1 Certain O 45 Likely 2 Lean 1. Before Sandy, R had +3 or 4 cross over Dems, but now they are even. Looks like they came home (for now) after the storm Will be interesting what things will look like tomorrow aft er Wednesday (big O day) drops off. If Indies hold, we will be alright with our enthusiasm IMHO so relax and enjoy last night 🙂

    • John
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      I know this is at the noise level compared to MOE but the fact that RAS is a 3-day moving average suggests last night’s survey may have actually been a little better for R sinc the trend halted. I think the Wed & Thu night polls were probably the worst ones he will see. If 3% are still undecided (hope they are never asked “paper or plastic” cuz they may take a week to decide) and they break 2:1 for R as many experts say then R will win national vote 51-48 with ~1% of the votes wasted on other candidates. Anyway the time to worry about likely voter screens and party IDs is past. Now the actual voters are what matter and from nearly all indications republicans will show up big time on Tuesday.

    • Evan3457
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t see the Saturday Rasmussen on his site or on Free Republic yet.

    • Jim S.
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’ll take it, the WaPo/ABC and PPP trackers essentially had Romney having a good day yesterday as well. You have to believe that on election day Romney will win the crossover battle as the GOP always does.

  10. indie
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Disaffected Bush campaign strategist for ’04 Matthew J. Dowd says: “When is the last time this late in modern pres campaigns that the preponderance of numerous public polls were wrong? Answer: never.”

    Thoughts?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      Here is your answer…

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

      About as close as your are going to get regarding a state…because really, we are talking about one state..

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      When is the last time in the modern era an incumbent was reelected with a 7.9% unemployment rate? Answer:never

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:30 am | Permalink | Reply

      He should know. He was down 2 in the polls to Kerry in OH in 2004 at this point, but still won there.

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:34 am | Permalink

        Mason Dixon nailed it in Ohio that year. I really wish someone would pay them to poll Ohio.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s a stupid question. We have never had a close election where there are numerous polls. Go back to 2000, and there are maybe half a dozen polls in the battleground states the last month of the election.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      He’s a lifelong Democrat. He’s opportunistically switched parties to catch the Republican wave in 2000. The second it was no longer convenient to be a Republican he jumped ship and started back-stabbing the President and the Republican party. He’s a hack. Nothing more. He’s gets network television gigs for the same reasons nearly all “Republicans” get booked, so they will trash the party. That’s Nicole Wallace, Kathleen Parker, Matthew Dowd et al.

      • PJBRIEN
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:32 am | Permalink

        Don’t forget Michael Steele and Steve Schmidt.

  11. rick in virginia
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    congratulations and thanks for your hard work, you magnificent bastard.

  12. Marge
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thank you Keith and my best to you and your family. Being that you are so objective, which can’t always be easy, is what gives your blog validity. You are not a partisan hack, and I don’t like hacks on either side. I am a Tea Party Independent, equally disgusted with both Parties, and I want straight facts. Thankfully I found your blog. BTW, I am supporting the Republican ticket, but I steadfastly refuse to support a political party.

  13. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    Good!

    If I go with my gut, I actually come down straight on with Barone:
    http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJUY0Wl24p-

    In fact, I’d add ME02, and Nevada:
    322-216

    But with my head, I actually see things turning out that Romney is more likely, given how things have panned out, to win PA than he is OH. Seems odd to be in that position, but that is where I am at right now.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      +1. Feeling a little better about Penn, but as I run up to the football, I see Lucy with the grin 😉

  14. Marge
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Medicine Man,
    Can any presidential incumbent having only having 45% without leaners in the Raz poll possibly win?
    Also, if a Republican president was out campaigning while thousands of American citizens are relieving themselves in apt. hallways and eating out of dumpsters, would the MSM, aka the White House stenography pool, not be howling like banshees?

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      (1) No
      (2) Obviously (and same re Benghazi, and Fast ‘n Furious, and open mic incident with Medvedev, and the lack of meaningful progress on jobs, and the increase in poverty, and the increase in black and teen unemployment, and the increase in food stamps etc.).

      • Marge
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:43 am | Permalink

        Thank you JGS

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink

        +1

        Like I was telling my brother on the phone just now, the only thing I hate more than losing is being surprised unexpectedly (see the Supreme Court decision this summer).

        I’m no Michael Barone, but the fundamentals don’t favor an Obama win at this moment.

  15. Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    Is Gallup releasing today?

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      Not according to their last post, which indicated they would release a 4-day average (from Thursday-Sunday) on Monday.

      http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10/status-update-on-gallup-election.html

    • John
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      I believe they said not until Monday but maybe I read it wrong. Wish they were because Gallup applies no weighting at all except for demographics based on hard census data. As a result they do not have a built-in Dem/Rep bias one way or the other. With a national sample size of 3000 RV and 2700 LV each day the party ID solves itself in such large suveys as long as they are demographically proportioned.

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:43 am | Permalink

        My hunch is that Tuesday and Wednesday were the “high water mark” for Obama, so the way Gallup is doing it now will completely exclude those days from the final poll. Not sure if it will be anywhere near the R+5 or R+6 levels we saw last week, but I’ll bet we see an R advantage that is meaningful and close to the MOE one way or the other.

  16. David
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    Glad you’re home. Now it’s time to close Obama out.

  17. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:01 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am used to Bill Maher saying outrageous and disgraceful things, but this one takes the cake. Geez, man, I know you blew $1 million on The One, but is it necessary to both threaten Romney voters, and simultaneously make racist statements about African-Americans, all in the same phrase?

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/11/03/maher-if-you-vote-romney-black-people-know-who-you-are-and-will-come

  18. Marge
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hi JGS,
    This from liberals who always consider themselves such bastions of enlightenment.
    It was like the MSNBC host, I don’t recall which one, who suggested that Tea Party rallies should put black participants in front of the camera. Do these morons ever listen to themselves?
    Uh, moron, unlike you, we in the Tea Party are not fixated on race, religion, ethnicity, sexual preference, or gender. Unlike you, we don’t treat Tea Party members as tokens to be put on display to show our “enlightenment”. Unlike you, we see only Americans.

  19. Rick
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Glad you’re back at home safe and sound. I have a very close relative in Manhattan who went through the same trials and tribulations. Keep up the good work!!

  20. Rick
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Also, I just printed my ticket for the Paul Ryan rally in MN tomorrow. Let’s get it done!!!

  21. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Welcome Home Keith, and keep blogging as much as possible this website is the best out there.

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