Enthusiasm

Report from the Ryan Rally in Pennsylvania:

And for the report from Obama’s Ohio rally:

Crowd shot from the Ryan Rally:

146 Comments

  1. NHConservative
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A good friend of my just returned from a trip in Central PA and said there was nothing but Romney signs “everywhere”. I would love to see the whack job MSDNC’s faces if PA turns blue decisively. I’m sure they will blame it on Sandy.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You mean red…

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

        Lol, YES. I’m losing my mind this week.

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They turn blue, state turns red.

      • FabianNightmare
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

        We have a winner !

    • Mary
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The PMSNBC crowd will blame the Citizens United ruling and gun toting hicks who live in rural areas. Just listen to Mr. Ed the Talking Horse(patoot)’s tirade after Scott Walker won his recall victory. Mr.Ed’s knowledge of Wisconsin geography is as limited as his knowledge on most anything else.

      http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755822/vp/47714415#47714415

    • Marge
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PMSNBC will blame it on Citizens United and gun toting hicks in rural areas. Just listen to Mr. Ed the Talking Horse(patoot)’s tirade following the recall victory of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. His knowledge of Wisconsin geography is as limited as his knowledge on most anything else.

      http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755822/vp/47714415#47714415

      • Steve
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

        Those “journalists” at MSNBC are just flat out lunatics.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

        Well they are…though in Ed’s case he’s just the lib equivalent of Sean Hannity….that crazy uncle you just don’t want to talk about.

  2. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Mitt Romney is going to win Florida which I think you will I live in Tampa by 5 to 7. rcp has a Romney 1.9 which is completely bogus

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t think people should blame RCP, they are just using the public polls that are out there. Its not their fault the polls are oversampling Dems.

      • bks
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

        When a polling organization calls you, they ask for your party id, they don’t check the registar of voters. The fact that all of these samples turn up a lot of people who identify as Dem may just mean that there is a lot more support for Obama among the people who are willing to vote for either candidate at the start of the process. That is, it’s not undecideds or independents that are throwing you off, but rather the flip-floppers who might answer Dem one year and Rep the next, or perhaps both in the same year, and who are answering Dem this polling season. That’s why a lot of people watch this poll:
        https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#shifts-between-candidates

        –bks

  3. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So what I’m doing is adding 223 points at least for every RCP average and that’s what I look at on a conservative basis toward Mitt Romney

  4. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    2to3

  5. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Drove about an hour in Fairfax county VA today and counted signs along the route. 15 Romney and 8 Obama. VA will be called early for Romney.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in rural Marion Co. Oregon, east of Salem. My drive to work its literally about 30-0 R/R signs. The enthusiasm here in deep blue Oregon is off the charts for R/R. In 2008 my little town of Silverton had an Obama office which was always a flurry of activity and the town had Obama signs in every other lawn. Local organizers held pro-Obama rallies in the park and the town even elected the nations first transgender mayor. No signs of any of that this year.

      • Freddy
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

        OR is a beautiful state. Probably one of the most beautiful of the (sic) 57 states according to Obama. With the exception of Portland and maybe Bend, it is fairly conservative. I feel bad for the good people on the left coast who have sort of been ignored over the past 3 or 4 Pres elections. I will be very very thrilled when OR gets called for Romney. I think in OR that these kool aid drinkers are feeling it in the pocketbook hard. It hopefully woke them up.

        A relative had a friend with a thriving business in WA state in 2008. It was not construction related. He catered to upper middle class and wealthier people. He drink the O kool aid. Three years late his business was destroyed and he was losing his house. He is very good at what he does and was very business savvy. Now he cannot stand O. I think his future and any chance of retirement was destroyed by 4 years of Hope.

        I recall in 2008 that the local Obama office was in a Planned Parenthood office.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

        WA is the most beautiful state….OR is where your crazy uncle lives. πŸ™‚

      • Kent O
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

        Andrew — My very liberal cousin in Portland posted the other day on facebook …. “I don’t know who to vote for.”

        Almost fell over when I read it.

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

        Kent O, if he’s like my friends in Portland, he’s not talking about a choice between Obama and Romney, but between Rocky Anderson and Jill Stein πŸ™‚

    • RhodyKev
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here in RI – 2nd only to HI in ‘blueness’, I have yet to see 1 Obama yard sign, have sign. The few R’s and conservatives and some I’s are fired up for RR here in RI. Took a trip to CT today and finally saw my first O sign, but more RR signs.

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

        RI is in sad shape, I lived in Pawtucket and I put out a Scott Brown sign…so close to the border might as well throw some support to the Massholian brother. Do you think Doherty has any shot?

  6. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Read Jay Cost today on PA:

    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/jsavqc

  7. Kiki
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My family and I just got back from Hanover, PA. We drove for about 5 miles within the city of Hanover, my kids counted 3 Obama signs and 7 Romney signs.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Throwin down with the neighbors in VA:

    • M. White
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LOVE IT!

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I gotta say – That’s pretty good! ha ha ha ha

  9. Neil in NC
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We conducted a very scientific poll Halloween night. We counted twice as many RR houses (with either signs or bumper stickers) than OB. We also noted that RR houses gave out better candy. πŸ˜‰

    • M. White
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Neil I live in Old Fort, NC, where are you?

      • M. White
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

        Here in McDowell County, NC which is a small county, it has always had more registered Democrats but at the start of October it switched to more registered Republicans…that shows me where NC is going! For people after all these years switching to Republican tells me something.

      • Neil in NC
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

        Raleigh – That’s pretty country out where you are. I haven’t stopped in Old Fort but have been to Morganton and Black Mountain.

    • stuckinmass
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Beware of yard sign polling, by that measure it would look like Romney is winning MA too

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        I think yard sign polling is worthwhile when you are in a swing state or county and comparing your area to what it was like four years ago. I’m in a deep blue hell but I see about 1/5 the number of yard signs for O and 1/10 the number of bumper stickers. Also I have now lost count of the Romney stickers. Four years ago I counted less than a half-dozen McCain stickers the entire campaign.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

        perhaps. i tried it in NH last week but came up with 10-7 Obama.

        but i barely see Obama signs at all in my part of Mass, and I’m in a very blue county. Not sure if that means anything though

      • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

        Yard Sign polling I think is valuable towards enthusiasm especially in swing states. It also has value in its relativity. Comparing areas in 2008 to 2004, analyzing Obama energy and shifts towards Romney. But you are right…and unfortunately larger signs and duplicate don’t count for more votes….Was in Warrington PA area today and someone laid out hundreds and hundreds of Smith signs along with some “Casey Kills jobs” down medians, around shopping plazas…

  10. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I watch a local Florida political show and they asked about the national polls on Florida compared to the local polls and they said that they’re pole is much more accurate based on point Florida how to text for over 20 years and then they were asking about the other state polls they said if they are pulling them the same as they are pulling Florida they are completely wrong for the most part

  11. Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Went to an inside McCain rally in Bucks co pa in 08…. 100 people showed.
    100,000 expected Sunday in Bucks.
    O gotta GO!

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      100k?! Is there a link you could share on that. I mean 30k okay, but 100k? That would be amazing.

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

        10K I think.

      • Pa John
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

        Google Earthed the site looks like a small farm.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      No chance. lose the exaggeration talk.

    • Tony
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Maybe 10,000 to 15,000….not 100,000 lol

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I will be there!

  12. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s an EV game for your time:

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

    I think we get down to the 7th or 8th branch. You don’t see Pennsylvania on it so its pretty limited in value.

  13. Kiki
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Uninstalling Obama 1.0β€¦β–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–ˆβ–’ 99.6 % complete (For Mac users, simply find Obama 1.0 and drag it to the Trash)

    http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/03/uninstalling-obama-10%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%88%E2%96%92-996-complete-for-mac-users-simply-find-obama/

  14. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    As far as signs go same thing here in Tampa 2008 Obama signs everywhere 2012 almost none

  15. Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Has anyone heard any rumors of a Sunday surprise?

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Have you?

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      lol

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Just the changes to the SEAL Team 6 movie to give a bigger role to the PBO character.

      I know for a fact that our “operators” can’t stand PBO. It’s a shame that this movie is being used to promote PBO.

      • NAVYBLUE
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        I spent (28) years in the NAVY. We DESPISE Obama

        NAVYBLUE

  16. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ladies and gentleman I really think and I will put my money where my mouth is that Tuesday night Mitt Romney will shock the world and when the presidency with over 300 electoral votes and I’m not saying that because I want him to win but because I really truly believe it

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Shock the world is right. The Europeans, the Russians, the Chinese, and most of the Middle East will be shocked and dismayed. Too bad for them we get to decide who our President is.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

        MSNBC will be most upset, followed by the Chinese, then the russians and then europe.

  17. Tony
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow 3,500 to hear Ryan? I’m sorry, but he is horrible on the stump.

  18. Brad
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Heh.

    “Perrysburg police arrested four Toledo area men early Friday morning on charges of stealing Mitt Romney campaign signs in Wood and Lucas counties in Northwest Ohio.

    The signs were found in a pickup truck owned by Sheet Metal Workers International, Union Local 33 in Parma, according to the police report.

    Many of the signs β€” some measuring as large as 4 feet by 8 feet β€” were believed to have been put up by members of Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition, said John McAvoy, the group’s president. ”

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/03/it-begins-continues-dirty-tricks-in-ohio/

    • Steve
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Typical union tactics…glad they were arrested.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

        Sure hope they were not paid to do that. LOL

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We were out last weekend and came across a dumpster at the back of a parking lot that had quite a few Romney, Smith and local republican candidates…

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      BUSTED!

  19. Tedley
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting article in Huff Post.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/obama-romney-change_n_2068619.html

    Apparently Axlerod and Plouffe don’t like Mitt using the work “Change”. Huh. Guys who are winning don’t give a darn what the other guy is saying. They pound their own message. Unless of course the president says something really stupid like – go vote for spite – in which case you gotta let folks know. In the end, Bamster knows he’s losing, so he’s losing it.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The funny thing is I’ve read an article claiming that Obama didn’t realize he’d lost the first debate and thought he’d done great until his staff had to break it to him. I wonder if Obama does realize he’s losing. I’m not saying the campaigns don’t realize it, I’m sure they have very good internal data. But I wonder if they are spinning the interpretation of that data to Obama as heavily as they are spinning it to the press. In other words I can totally see Obama being so narcissistict, encapsulated in the bubble of his supporting rallies, and insulated from reality that he actually doesn’t realize he’s losing.

      • Tedley
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

        But he can remember he had 80,000 in a rally in OH last time and 2800 this time. He’s gotta know the jig is up.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

        hmm, good point.

      • margaret
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        If you look at Obama yesterday, the “revenge” speech, he is looking physically worse than I’ve ever seen him. He’s shrunken in stature, speaking and looking desperate. I was actually shocked when I saw him. He knows all right.

      • Remember the Alamo!
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

        Believe it or not, but Carter in 1980 was personally clueless of the tsunami-like loss he was about to suffer all the way until Monday afternoon before election Tuesday. Then, his pollster Patrick Caddell, went in and told him, ‘Sir, it’s over’ or words to that effort — and Carter’s face just fell flat; he really thought he was going to win.

        Sound familiar folks?

        Who will deliver the bad news to BHO on Monday, Nov. 5th!?

      • FabianNightmare
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

        Who will deliver the bad news to BHO on Monday, Nov. 5th!?

        Hopefully the families of the four dead U.S. citizens killed in Benghazi……

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

        At the 1ST Debate, he might not have known he lost, since he did not know how good and competent Romney was.
        But those rallies crowds must have told him, BHObama was not popular any longer in the USA soil! He could be still popular in Kenya and Hawaii, but DEFINITELY NOT in the Mainland USA.

      • Neil in NC
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

        Perhaps a little too much “medication” that night. You always think your great until later when everyone tells you what an ass you’ve been πŸ˜‰

  20. rochierich
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Half my family and friends voted for Obama in 2008 now I would say less than 10 percent are voting for him this time so I really like to know who are his voters?

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tell me you live in PA.

      • Navyblue
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        Brad, I lived in PA for 18 years, was in the NAVY for (28) years and then came back for (18) years after that then moved in Las Vegas to retire in 2008. PA has Republicans, Libertarians, conservative Democrats and Liberals. I come from SW Pennsylvania. The state is RED, EXCEPT for inner Philly, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg. Pubs AND conservative Dems are PISSED about Obama assault on guns/God ( remember the clinging to their guns and bible) and the killer is his war on coal. With oil/gas fracking providing jobs in PA, NoBama’s assault on oil pissing off a lot of oil workers and their vendors and businesses that support them.

        You NEVER want to piss off a coal miner. My G-Father was a miner for (50) years and helped organize the United Mine Workers. They did NOT endorse NoBAMA this time. Dems enthusiasm is way down this year, Pubs is UP, Pub registration is up and a lot of small business owners are pissed at the “you didn’t build that” comment in PA.

        KeithBacker has provided some good info on PA. Philly/Pittsburgh suburbs and Pubs enthusiasm are key. We do not need BOTH PA and Ohio with Romney taking FL, VA, NC plus WI, CO and NH or IA plus McCain 2008 states. We WILL take one of the two (PA/OH). Their is a 50/50 chance of NV going Romney with Dems way behind compared to 2008 early voting, much better NV 2012 ground game and Heller beating Shelley Berkley might pull Mitt through by 1%.

        A week ago I would have never though PA was in play. In 2010, PA went with a Republican Governor and both state houses went Pub. I feel more comfortable with PA going RED than Ohio, BUT Ohio is doable. I put my faith in the good people of BOTH states and want them RED for mandate reasons. I belief the links below more than weighted polls.

        http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win Correct since 1980

        http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470 Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily

        Obama has NOT been over 50%. It’s over. He’s toast. Oh, by the way his surrogate (Penny Pritzker) just closed on his $35 Million estate in Kailua on Oahu’s windward coast next to the University of Hawaii. Can you say ” Presidential Library and hookah parlor”

        Hang in there.

        NAVYBLUE

  21. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OK, s a model can be made of this right? ie, if the EV margin is such and such, it’s favoring O, or R…

    Early Results from Ohio on Election Day May Be Misleading
    Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted has outlined how the results will be released next Tuesday from this make-or-break swing state. The polls close at 7:30 P.M. At 8:30 P.M. he will announce the results of the absentee ballots. About 1.3 million were sent out and 72% of them have already been cast. Absentee ballots are not a good indicator of how things are going except when compared to previous years’ absentee ballots.

    Once the precincts begin reporting, he will release reports from the big counties every 15 minutes, from the medium-sized counties every 30 minutes, and from the small counties every hour. If the election is close (less than 0.25% between the candidates), there will be a recount on Nov. 27. That might keep the country in suspense for 3 weeks. In addition, there could be hand-to-hand combat over provisional ballots. It is for good reason the election administrator’s prayer is: “Lord, let it be a landslide.”

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wait, just read to the end (was more wondering about that first graf and retrofitting an expectation), but Nov 27th for a recount? Are they serious. OMG.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am thinking that there are major complications though, for an absentee model, given that the state switched from just a select number of counties sending out absentee to all of the counties, that the ’12 results are not a perfect match with ’08. I have heard that the change makes for more Republicans to be able to vote by absentee, so the least one would expect is that Romney fields a better absentee margin than did McCain.

  22. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Will hunt for internals but Reuters/Ipsos just released its national tracking poll and its latest polls (final?) in VA, OH and FL. They show Obama +1 nationally (47-46), +1 in OH (46-45), +3 in VA (48-45), and Romney +2 in CO (47-45). Particularly skeptical on the VA numbers but need to find internals which I will post once I do.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/03/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121103

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think this is it.

      http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12163

      VA is D+6 (45 D, 39 R including leaners)
      OH is D+5 (44 D, 39 R including leaners)
      FL is D+0 (43 D, 43 R including leaners) (forgot to mention, Reuters-Ipsos has Obama +2 in FL which is a bit of a joke since neither side is acting as if FL is in play any longer)
      CO is R+6 (38 D, 44 R including leaners) (this poll has them tied 46-46, so now I’m wondering if this might be yesterday’s results?)

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

        Oh Jesus, another set of polls to piss me off.

      • arizona rules
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        looking at the internals…actually really good polling for Romney…Ohio down by 1 with a D +5 wow

        gonna be lots of surprised folks come Tuesday because many don’t look beyond the headlines….

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If O is really at 46 in OH right now. He loses.

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      VA Poll has O up 18 with Indies? lol.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

        Okay…when you drill into the VA data it has this:

        Party ID:
        Strong Democrat –
        Moderate Democrat
        Strong Republican
        Moderate Republican

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

        Let’s try that again, I can’t type this week for some reason…

        Okay…when you drill into the VA data it has this:

        Party ID:
        Strong Democrat – 13
        Moderate Democrat – 21
        Strong Republican – 10
        Moderate Republican – 19

        With forcing leaners into a party with the rest, you really skew the results.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

        What does a moderate Democrat believe in? A balanced budget?
        I am a moderate Republican so I know what that is?

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

        Note also that all of the cross-tabs are done at the RV (not LV) level, still a joke to show Obama up 42-24 with Independents among all Registered Voters. I’ll bet there isn’t another VA state poll taken in the last 3 months that shows anything like this.

      • TheTorch
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

        LOLOLOLOL

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s also worth nothing that each state poll has O up significantly with Independents.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

        Okay one other thing on the Independents in these samples….

        Given that IPSOS forced most respondents into a party there is a very low % of Independents for each state sample. For example, in OH you have 13% that are listed as Independent out of a sample size of 1,013 LVs. That’s n=132. O leads (allegedly) by 19 with these. Yeah, sure, that’s representative.

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

        Oh, those numbers are based on RVs, JGS? Garbage polls.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

        All these stories come out about how Obama is down with independents and then boom! Out comes a bunch of polls showing O up with independents. So funny how that works. I *suppose* it could be due to Sandy – but 18 points? Come on.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s an online/internet poll. Junk it.

  23. Dave
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    bks said…

    “I think you need to explain why suddenly in 2012 the pollsters are all in the bag for Obama. Why not in 2008? It’s possible, but improbable.”

    bks — For the same reason the media has it in the bag for him (most of whom generate those polls) and has for the past year. I did as much as space would allow… see the last Navada thread to your question. I don’t think it’s good net ettiquite to reposting the same stuff over and over. I posted it in last thread about Nevada to your response.

    Let’s put it this way, money talks and the disney’s, viacoms, nbcs, ge’s, time warners, wall street banks and ceos, indsutry ceos and many corporations that have benefitted and will continue to benefit from Obamas support of spending in the stock market and bailouts. Flooding the stock market with money only exacerbates the difference between the haves and have nots, disporportionaetly favors the so-called rich and who have $$$ to invest, and yet Obama will ask everyone to pay for it (actually as an excuse to raise taxes for notonly debt reduction but Obamacare and other entitlements) even if they haven’t participated in the stock market (even seniors who on fixed incomes who have been absolutely screwed by this administration). Europe is even in need of our cash. Tax cuts allow everyone to participate and not descriminate whether you have cash to invest or not. Taxes go down (and deductions get capped) and everyone benefits. No need to pick stocks or invest in stocks unless you want. Fixed incomers get rates they can actually live on as they could before Obama and Geithner. The threat that the spending could stop or curtail or that the next Fed could be more hawkish, under Romney, probably has these groups scared to death. They’ve already spent so much and invested so much. Sane economic policy can curb that spending, reduce the debt, and restore the notion that real jobs and growth are what will drive economic recovery, not federal spending but then the playing field would be levled and corporate largeese would be a thing of the past. It’s hard for a crack addict to quit their habit once the habit has started.

    These people are responsible for a large number of rediculous polls and their cash extends beyond the polls that they release. Colleges, public radio outfits (state polls, etc.) all have vested interest beyond just the cash they may take from a client.

    What about you do you really believe Obama will get a D+6,+8 +9 turnout as these polls seem to indicate he will?

    • Tedley
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As compelling as your explaination is, I think there is a more simple answer. Last time they didn’t need to lie in the polls. McCain was a lousy candidate, everyone was tired of W and all they had to do was let Bamster not answer any question about Rev Wright, Bernadine Dorn, Acorn, etc …. and the polls tool care of themselves. This time, they have to let Bamster not answer questions about Bengazi, Fast & Furious, Solindra etc PLUS lie in their polls to give the poor guy a chance.

      • bks
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

        I don’t think that Tedley is serious, or perhaps he misread the question. Dave, not sure why you put your response in this thread. It didn’t make much sense to me before and it’s not improving with the re-reading. You’re claiming that the corporations, which are contributing money disproportionately to Romney’s campaign are secretly subverting the polling organizations to thwart Romney? I find it much, much easier to believe that there’s some systematic error brought on by “conventional wisdom” among the pollsters, but that still doesn’t answer why it’s happening *now*. Cell phones?

        –bks

  24. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PPP did a Maine poll and found this:

    If there is any intrigue with the Presidential race in Maine it’s that the race is relatively close in the 2nd Congressional District. Obama leads Romney only 51/46 there…

    Jenson has it 52/45 in favor of gay marriage, saying “if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage”. So, watch ME02, it could easily go Romney.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html#more

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PPP have really settled on a pattern of putting out not-too-horrible polls in states they don’t think are important (eg Oregon) and comically biased polls in the key states.

      You want to know how the race is really going, check their polls for non swing states. O only up 4-5 in Oregon or Miane 2 shows you where it might be at.

  25. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    PPP also put out a final Michigan poll:
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_1103.pdf

    Bizzare. Romney’s favorables are 47/45 to Obama’s 45/49

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen a reversal like this at the Presidential level. Where the incumbent with a net -4 defeats a challenger with a net +2 fav rating. Unheard of. PPP had to dig deep with liberals to find Obama up 6% in Michigan, 52-46.

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      D+6 sample in this poll, vs. D+11 in 2008 and D+5 in 2004. So at least on that particular metric this does not appear to be hugely out of whack. It is weird, however, to have Obama up 6 and at 52% with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 45/49 and Romney having a favorable/unfavorable rating of 47/45.

  26. Freddie
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hey Keith – Susquehanna Polling supposedly did a poll and it came out last night for PA. This pollster is HQ’ed in PA and is a known polling firm. They have Romney up +4 in PA. Romney 49% and Obama 45%. 1376 likely voters. The info was on Free Republic.

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hmmm, according to this from Erie GOP from last night, there is an asterisk at the bottom of the page which says the following — it looks like this is not a new Susquehanna poll showing Romney +4 in PA as of yesterday, but rather a new release about the earlier Susquehanna poll from 10/18 (showing Romney +4):

      ” * NB: This poll was completed during mid-October and has been posted here on October 18, 2012. Our presentation, may have caused some confusion, which is not intentional.”

      http://goperiepa.com/archives/4499/

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

        Darn. So they have no new poll, then?

  27. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Oh My! I only just noticed this but Drudge has gone with the headline:

    “VOTING IS THE BEST REVENGE”

    ouch!

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yea, defending/explaining is where Obama’s campaign is right now. They have no response ad for this.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s pretty clear that Obama is talking about class warfare here, and not the auto industry:

      His economic plan asked the wealthiest Americans to pay a little bit more so we could continue to invest in our people, continue to invest in ideas and innovation, invest in our infrastructure. And at the time the Republican Congress and a Senate candidate by the name of Mitt Romney –

      AUDIENCE: Booo –

      THE PRESIDENT: No, no, no β€” don’t boo, vote. (Applause.) Vote! Voting is the best revenge.

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think the renewed interest in VA by the O camp is due to desperation. If things are looking iffy in OH and he can’t take FL, then he needs a big battleground state to stop R. I think R stopped him cold in FL. This explains why R keeps returning to VA.

  28. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    An over/under for the number of polls released on Monday?

  29. Kardinal11
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Resurgence of Obama ads here in VA today. Had been pretty quiet of late. I thought maybe the O camp had pulled out. During first half of the game I’m watching 3 O ads to 0 R ads. Wouldn’t think much of it but I also noticed a lot of new O yard signs driving into work today. Now I see the Ipsos poll and the anxiety starts again!! I thought we had it in the bag here.

    • Ron
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Desperation by the O camp probably–since it looks as if FL won’t pan out and OH is looking more and more doubtful re turnout and early voting.

  30. nvClark
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like Nate Silver is already preparing his excuse(s)… “Oh, well yeah, I guess my prediction was wrong, but you have to understand that it was only because the polls were statistically biased, how could I have predicted that?” Nevermind the fact that everyone here on this relatively obscure (sorry Keith) blog have been shouting that all along. Nate Silver was just using the data available to him, and if the data was flawed, well that’s not his fault.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

    • Kardinal11
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m new to this blog and I don’t really know shit about polling. I started following here after the link(narnia) on RCP the other day and its been like Xanax for me. One thing I don’t get is why does everyone in the MSM think Silver is so smart. My admittedly limited understanding is that he essentially aggregates the top line poll results for his predictions. How is this hard or novel in any way? He’s only good if the polls are good right? I doesn’t seem like it takes any talent or insight to do what he does. He’s accepting results at face value without looking at the data the results are drawn from no? Am I missing something with him?

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

        Welcome, and you know plenty as judged by your initial comment on this blog.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

        Well, he’s not just good if the data is good, he has to be good on top of that, because his whole “thing” is using Bayesian analysis and statistics to weight his averages. And that sounds all fancy schmancy to the MSM who generally aren’t statisticians. But what they don’t understand is that Bayesian analysis is specifically predicated on a generally subjective weighting of the statistical probabilities of something or other happening. In other words Nate Silver’s prediction is not “Math” as his supporters say it is, it is Math wrapped around a core of arbitrary assumptions and weighted guesswork about the probability of outcomes (and that’s not an attack, that’s precisely what Bayesian analysis is intended to be about). So in answer to your question, I think the reason that so many people respect Nate Silver is because they respect Math without really understanding Math, Nate Silver claims to represent Math, and since they don’t understand Math but respect it they can’t assess his claims but accept them on faith.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        I was going to say people should look up “Bayesian Probability” (or actually “Bayesian Inference”) on wikipedia but that article is filled with dense mathematical formulas which are probably opaque to 99.9% of people who see that article. But you can usually find a grain of truth even in the densest description if you focus on the key points, from that article…

        “In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to discussions of subjective probability, often called “Bayesian probability.””

        So now all you need to do is look up subjective…

        “a subject’s personal perspective, feelings, beliefs, desires or discovery, as opposed to those made from an independent, objective, point of view ”

        In other words Nate Silver is mixing his personal views with rigorous statistics and claiming the result to be “pure” to those who can’t tell the difference. He’s the adulterating drug dealer of election analysis who claims his product is 100% pure even after mixing in a large proportion of crazy chemicals that he pulled from the cabinet under his sink.

      • Neil in NC
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

        Silver called everything in 08′ so they think he’s the wonder boy. I think he only missed one race.

  31. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Democrats are having an “Oh S***!” moment over Revenge:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/the_rumble/2012/11/obama%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98revenge%E2%80%99-is-a-bad-campaign-habit

    • Brad
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah, they know full well how well President Petulant worked out during the first debate.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Kind of off topic from your original post but from the article you linked: “Obama’s a better President than he is a politician.”
      my response: LOL! yeah right!

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep, huge mistake this, amazing what he does off teleprompter, the real Obama comes out to play…

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Sean Malstrom, who runs a blog that is basically about gaming but has some interesting political posts, recently provided a brief list of how some recent loser campaigns ended:

        2008- McCain suspends his campaign to fly back to Washington D.C.

        2000- Al Gore campaigns through the night in Florida.

        1996- Dole is left shouting, β€œWhere’s the outrage? Where is the outrage?”

        1992- Bush is stuck campaigning in Montana and calls Clinton/Gore: β€œThose bozos!”

        “Revenge” might be on this list if (G-d willing) Obama’s campaign falls into this category on November 6th.

  32. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I am not sure whether the following are reassuring or not — sounds sort of like R camp is saying that our internal polling is better than the public polls in the key battleground states (but not necessarily that their most recent internal polling shows Romney being ahead in those states), and that R enthusiasm on election day is going to carry the day. Take this FWIW.

    http://www.news8000.com/news/politics/Romney-internal-memo-GOP-enthusiasm-will-tilt-election/-/1032/17256924/-/13qiue5/-/index.html

    http://www.news8000.com/news/politics/Portman-Kasich-dismiss-Ohio-poll-numbers/-/1032/17255238/-/1xbmpyz/-/index.html

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      People show up and vote for winners. They don’t bother to show up and vote for losers. This is a smart move no matter how well you’re doing. We have to ensure the vote gets out.

  33. Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The survey was conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research in Harrisburg from Oct. 29 to 31. It is their latest only a couple days ago.

    http://www.politicspa.com/trib-poll-casey-46-smith-45/43814/

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s a new PA Senate poll, not a new PA presidential poll. Can anyone find any evidence that Susquehanna has done more than the one 10/18 poll showing Romney +4 at that time?

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

        Sorry you are correct. Did not read the whole article.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        The Susquehanna poll guy (Lee) just said that they are releasing a new poll in the AM for the Tribune Review in Pittsburgh that shows a “tighter race.” Let’s see how tight tomorrow AM. However, if you look at the internals of the PA Senate poll above, there are 8% undecided and R approval is 48% and O approval is 48%. The poll is Smith 45 Casey 46. Assume Smith is lagging Romney by 2% (look at the last poll), so my bet is that tomorrow’s poll will be 47-45 R with 8% undecided. Assume a 75:25 split of the undecided vote and R wins 52-48. Again, if the Philly suburbs report even, Barone et al will call this for R early. Hmmmm….

  34. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney Colorado Rally, long lines waiting to get in for tonight around 8pm. Expecting 18000 apparently.
    http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Mitt-Romney-Campaigns-in-Suburban-Denver-Colorado/10737435575/

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Waiting for their Rock Star Mr. Romney

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Man – Ann Romney is a good looking lady! I can’t believe she’s 63!

  35. Brad
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

    Uh-huh. MT @ppppolls Big drops for O in our blue state polls help explain why the pop vote is still so close even as O looks good in the EC

    It’s funny how PPP and most other pollsters only finds a wave election results like 2008 in battle ground states, but not in deep blue states.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is what is annoying about MSM pollsters. They do (1) a national poll, which shows a tight race and (2) only the critical swing states, which show an Obama lead typically as large as his 2008 win. Their methodologies would be opened up to more scrutiny if they did polls on solidly red/blue states.

  36. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hmm.. Rumours of a rally in Michigan by Romney tomorrow? That is not on the schedule, I assume it is not true, but thought it worth a mention

  37. Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another sign of an enthusiasm gap?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/democrats-leaving-mail-ba_b_2069037.html

  38. Interested Party
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m lovin me some of this…http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/02/romney-will-win-pennsylvania

  39. GT
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nov 3 2008..about 90K in Va, Nov 2 2012 about 3k in OH but the polls say the D turnout as great or greater than 2008..,,Ummm OK.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They are hoping for a hold your nose and vote turnout

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Teleprompter? For a stump speech? What a loser.

  40. Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The New York Times! Can we banish them?
    Each and every columnist there is a disgrace, particularly Krugman who has waged a form of article terrorism on the Romney campaign. He’s the Town Crier for doom and gloom if Romney wins while at the same time he cheerleads for the march-in-time going nowhere economy presided over by Obama. When are people going to expose these overwhelmingly partisan clowns.
    And it’s not like I am a Republican groupie because I have the same visceral reaction to Doocy and others similar.

    But it’s The Times, they’re supposed to be better than that.

  41. CT
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We just returned from W. PA from a wedding earlier today. Romney signs in W. PA outnumbered Obama signs 4 to 1. What surprised me were so few bumper stickers. Only a few here and there for both candidates. Also in VA (we live in SE VA) Romney signs outnumbered Obama signs 5 to 1.

  42. Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith (or anyone else) is this a new Susquhena poll or old (10/18) ref’d above shown on Breitbart?
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/02/Pennsylvania-s-Most-Accurate-Pollster-Points-to-Romney-Win

  43. Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    hope I am not replicating anyone posting this elsewhere

    BUT this Blaze report shows VERY low turnout for Obama event
    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/wasnt-advertised-properly-fewer-than-200-reportedly-show-up-for-pro-obama-rally-featuring-stevie-wonder/

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      lol, I saw that article and I went and Googled the event and if you dig guess what it was in the paper at least a day before and on numerous sites day(s) before. Libs are full of it. This is a really bad sign for Hussein.

      http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/11/stevie_wonder_schedules_saturd.html

      http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread896221/pg1You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      3 days ago – CLEVELAND, Ohio — Legendary performer Stevie Wonder this … his love for Cleveland during a get-out-the-vote rally at Cleveland State …

      Cleveland State University News – Topixwww.topix.com/colleges/cleveland-state-universityCached – Similar
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      2 days ago – Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State University. Stevie Wonder’s “Signed, Sealed, Delivered I’m …

      you decide 2012 | FOX8.com – Cleveland news & weather from …fox8.com/tag/you-decide-2012/Cached
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      CLEVELAND β€” Stevie Wonder will rally for President Barack Obama and encourage … Mitt Romney are spending a lot of time in the critical battleground state

      Ohio Politics & Election News | OPEN – cleveland.comwww.cleveland.com/open/Cached – Similar
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State University Β· +; 12 hours ago by Henry J. Gomez, Plain Dealer Politics Writer …

      Ohio State football finalizes 2013 schedule – I4U Newswww.i4u.com/2012/…state…/ohio-finalizes-2013-football-state-sched…You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State University t.co/krmDFoe5. β€” Mentor_Ohio 15 min 3 sec ago. Update: 9 …

      Cosgrove, Timothy J. – Ohio Lobbyohiolobby.org/cosgrove-timothy-j/Cached
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      Friday, 2 November 2012, 9:40 pm; Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State University Friday, 2 November 2012, 9:19 …

      Ohio Presidential Election Polls – Pew Forum | Pew Forum on …projects.pewforum.org/rp2012/swing-states/ohio-presidential-polls/Cached
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      2, 2012 Cleveland Plain Dealer – Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State University; Nov. 2, 2012 Cleveland Plain …

      Washington Wire – WSJblogs.wsj.com/washwire/Cached – Similar
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      If its status as the most important state was not already clear, Ohio is the top … on each of the next three daysβ€”in the Cleveland suburb of Mentor on Saturday, in Cincinnati on Sunday (with singer Stevie Wonder) and in Columbus on Monday …

      US News | Breaking National News – cleveland.comwww.cleveland.com/nation/Cached – Similar
      You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      Stevie Wonder schedules Saturday rally for President Obama at Cleveland State … CIA security officers went to the aid of State Department staff less than 25 …

      Stevie Wonder in Cleveland Airport, Fairfax, MO, USA – Smarpsmarp.com/…/Last-Airport-Sightings-Stevie-Wonder-in-Cleveland-Ai…You +1’d this publicly. Undo
      19 hours ago – Last Airport Sightings: Stevie Wonder in Cleveland Airport, Fairfax, MO, … Mitt Romney tells supporters: Ohio is the one state he has to win …

      • trux
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

        I was under the impression it was lightly advertised also…but I guess not. I would have thought Stevie just by himself could draw a few thousand almost anywhere.

    • Neil in NC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would have gone to see Stevie Wonder. Would have worn my RR shirt though. hehehehe

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