Colorado: State of the race, early voting and polls — By David Ramos

Here is a guest post by one of our readers:

Readers expressed concern on the state of the presidential race in Colorado – particularly after reading a Denver Post article suggesting Obama is leading in early voting despite Republicans voting in greater numbers than their Democratic counterparts. To address those concerns, below is an overview on polling and voting dynamics in Colorado.

Though Colorado’s demographics have changed the past few years, especially with the influx of people from the west coast moving into the state. Most have resettled in the Denver suburbs located in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. Changes in voting patterns in those two counties began to change in 2004. Despite those changes, Bush 43 comfortably won those counties in 2004 albeit by a narrower margin compared to 2000. The bulk of Democratic votes in the state come from Denver, Boulder, and Adams counties, and Pueblo county in the southern part of the state. To win statewide, both parties rely on the independent (unaffiliated) voters to provide the margin of victory.

Through Friday morning, early voting in Colorado has the Republicans with a narrow lead:

Total number of ballots cast – 1,462,163

Republicans voting – 547,150
Democrats voting –  509,091
Unaffiliated (independent) voting – 390,875
Third party voting – 15,047

In three swing counties considered crucial to the Romney campaign, there is evidence suggesting he’s likely to be ahead:

Jefferson County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 6,160.
Larimer County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 4,624.
Arapahoe County – Republican ballots lead Democrats by 3,209.

These numbers do not include those absentee and mail-in ballots that have been returned. The total number of registered voters is approximately 3.6 million.

Colorado, as a whole is a difficult state to gauge. While voters may be willing to vote Republican at one level, they’re willing to turn around and vote Democratic at another. Floyd Ciruli, who polled for Gary Hart, said this is what makes Colorado voters unpredictable, and polling them especially difficult. In 2004, while it was clear Colorado voters were willing to re-elect Bush 43, voters turned around voted in the Democrats into the majority in the state legislature. While many national polls suggested Colorado was tied at 48, Ciruli said Bush 43 was never in danger of losing the state – he would win by a narrower margin (which he did 52-48).

Other examples of an unpredictable Colorado electorate are:

In 2002, when incumbent Republican US Senator Wayne Allard was running for re-election, many pollsters (national and local) considered Allard to be roadkill. Allard won re-election by a comfortable 5-point margin.
In 1996, polling indicated Clinton would carry the state. When Dole carried the state, it was considered to be quite a surprise.
In 1992, Perot had siphoned away votes from Bush 41 to allow Clinton to carry the state with only 43% of the vote. Bush 41 was expected to carry the state by a razor thin margin.

In 2004, the Kerry campaign and the DNC began to organize large voter registration drives, in conjunction with ACORN, to develop a more friendly voter base in hopes of carrying the state. Despite the effort, they were unable to register enough Democratic voters to flip the state. If 2004 taught the Democrats anything, it was to begin the voter drives earlier and have them more often. In 2008, the Obama campaign and the DNC, again with help from ACORN, organized the voter drives, registering large numbers of voters (I want to say around 100,000 new voters, but am unsure of the total) particularly in the Denver metro area.

In 2008, Obama established a 40-33 lead in early voting over McCain. The lead was evaporated by the end of the early voting period. The McCain campaign, however, was poorly organized in Colorado. Voter contact (phone, in-person, robo-call) was quite limited, TV and radio advertising was less than half than Bush 43 levels in 2004. Even direct mail was substantially less than Obama. The campaign stops weren’t many – may be five or six total. You knew McCain was going lose. While Obama was better organized, McCain lost Colorado by being an uncompetitive candidate. Independents were willing to give Obama a chance, voting for him by a 9-point margin. Moreover, enough Republican voters stayed home to cement McCain’s loss.

With the changing demographics in Colorado, Ciruli indicated that for Republicans to be successful, they need to keep the margins close in Democratic and swing areas (minding the gap), win a simple majority of independents, and run their vote totals up elsewhere in the state – particularly in the Republican strongholds of Colorado Springs (El Paso County) and Grand Junction (Mesa County) must be carried by at least a 65-35 margin. Colorado is largely a conservative state outside the Denver metro area. For Democrats to be successful, Ciruli said they need to carry the solid Democratic areas by large margins, run even on independents, and hope they have enough total votes at the end.

In 2008, Obama won independents 54-46. In the Colorado Springs and Grand Junction areas, McCain won 55-45. In the Democratic and swing areas, McCain did little to keep those margins close. Clearly, McCain’s poor effort gave Colorado to the Obama column.

Seeing how Bush 43 ran his 2000 and 2004 campaigns, the Romney team built their campaign in the state along similar lines. That is, identify and develop their reliable voter base, then expand upon it. While polling suggested Colorado was slightly leaning Obama or even, the reality was/is it’s not the case. The independents in Colorado are deeply dissatisfied with Obama. Those that voted for Obama see him as a bait-and-switch politician. Though initially hesitant of Romney, the first debate at DU (University of Denver) was more than enough to convince them to vote for Romney. Whether it’s enough to flip it back to the Republican column, the early voting numbers and strong rallies suggest it may.

I hope this gives you a flavor of how things are unfolding in Colorado.

— David Ramos

132 Comments

  1. Zang
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good read.

    Question: What was EV vs election day vote in 2008? If the GOP history of underperforming in EV and over performing on EV holds true, Romney seems to be in very good shape in CO.

    • damien
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      seems like romney in good shape in colorado….

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree with Zang. I just ‘penciled’ out a projection on excel using GOP outperform on elect day. I used 55/45 split. Based on above numbers, polled adv. for Romey w/ Ind. voters I am seeing a projected 53% Romney to Obama 47%. rounding error & 3rd party votes may make it 52.5% vs 46.5% or so.

      And I concur with description of McCain campaign lack of organization and execution. I was a resident of CO then and my son (has Down Syndrome) was first to meet Sarah P. at first stop post convention. A real tear laden moment when she met my son – yet the campaign dithered and never followed up.

      BUT over past 12 months I have been ‘carpet bombed’ by emails from Republicans and conservative PACs even though I moved out of State. I think they have ‘game’ this go round.

      I pray we are right as I truly fear a 2nd term of Obama.

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Rs only lost EV by 2% in 2008 but lost the state by 9. So winning EV by 3% doesn’t mean everything in an of itself. If they swing independents by 15 points that would add 4.5% or so to his margin. A better retention of republicans (say 85% instead of McCain who only netted 75% of republicans) would help 3 points or so and same with a better crossover of democrats (obama got something like 85% of democrats)…too early to tell right now.

    • Adam
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Early vote is 80% of the game in Colorado – just have to hope Romney is doing level or better with Independants.

    • David
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      In 2008, early voting accounted for about 25% of the total votes cast. On election day, it’s everything else – precinct polling stations, mail-in ballots, and absentee ballots. McCain ran a horrible campaign, so it’s hard to say how well he performed on election day. He ran well enough in the solid Republican areas, but not by the margins he needed to make up the difference. A Republican presidential candidate or statewide candidate is not going to do well winning 55-45 in areas you’re suppose to win like McCain did, and hope to have enough votes when election day ends.

      This is where Romney is a better candidate than McCain. He has shored up his support in Republican areas, then working to bring back those swing counties back into the Republican fold. Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer counties were solid Republican at one time. They’re more evenly split these days. In essence, Team Romney needed to watch the gap, like in Nevada – not allowing Obama to build a substantial lead. Based on the Secretary of State numbers, they’ve managed to build a narrow lead. It puts Romney in position to win on Election Day with more than a third of registered voters having early voted.

  2. Bryan
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Thank you so much for the CO update. I hope everyone doesn’t mind if I share something unrelated to Colorado: I live in northern ILLINOIS. About an hour ago, I heard a Romney advertisement on a Rockford, Illinois ratio station…A ROMNEY AD IN ILLINOIS. It was from the Restore Our Future pac, and it was an ad with the voice of the dad whose daughter disappeared in NYC. The ad told the story of how MItt dropped everything at Bain and found the man’s daughter. It was a very touching ad. My point is to let everyone know that THERE ARE ROMNEY ADS RUNNING IN ILLNIOIS. I think that they may be doing it because this Rockford station reaches into southern Wisconsin (a la Minnesota-WI), but nonetheless, I was pleased to hear it. I must say that I live in Rockford, Illinois and four years ago I saw a LOT of Obama-Biden signs. This year I see a lot of Romney signs. Two years ago, The ultra-conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate Brady lost to Gov. Quinn by only a few thousand votes…Dare I say that perhaps IL may have a chance to flip to Romney as theorized by Ann Coulter on Hannity the other night? We voted for Bush in ’88 just like PA…I wonder…

    • Rick
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Illinois would be a shock. However, there appears to be unhappiness among Obama’s most reliable voters.

      http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/11/media-blackout-on-black-chicago-protesters-marching-against-obama/

      • Brad
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

        There aren’t many protesters in the video.

      • margaret
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        Hillbuzz wrote about this a few weeks ago. Black Christians in Chicago and all over are being told in their churches to “hold their fire” i.e just not vote for Obama. They see he hasn’t done anything for them, they don’t like his same-sex policy and his championing of hispanic illegals who they see will take their jobs. They won’t vote for Romney but they are not voting, which may be making some difference in cities in IL, OH, MI and PA.

    • TomC100
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      they are on the air in Rockford Illinois for the Wisconsin voters. It is 20 miles from the border. Illinois will vote Obama.

      • Bryan
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

        You’re right. You’re right. I know you’re right. Just sayin’

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed TomC100. There may be some reach into Iowa as well as it is only 75 miles away. Sorry Bryan but the only way R wins Illinois is if the entirety of Cook County sleeps through election day.

    • Dogfish
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Brian, thanks for the update.

      If Obama were to lose Illinois, it wouldn’t be a wave election…. it would be a Tsunami

  3. kyle
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I want PREDICTIONS!!!!

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      How about 330 to 350 electoral votes for Romney. That’s my prediction… Oh, you weren’t talking about the prediction of an anonymous blog poster? Well what if I told you that my prediction is based on “Bayesian Inference”? Look up “Bayesian Inference” and then chain from it’s reference to “subjective” in it’s first few sentences to looking up “subjective” on wikipedia.

      I hereby claim my position as the Nate Silver of conservative politics… I know that probably means I could be as wrong as Nate Silver is going to be, but still… 330 to 350 electoral votes in favor of Romney/Ryan.

      • Walter Jones
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

        They would have to bag Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, all the other swing states including probably Minnesota. That’s a stretch to get 330 or maybe even 300. I have a feeling that he can get 270 though, with Colorado, Iowa, forget Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, and NCarolina. That’s about 267. This is going to be tough, because he needs a couple more. But I’m leaving Ohio out of the calculation, even though he could win it.

    • Bryan
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think Michael Barone is spot on…315 electoral votes for Romney.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

        He can’t be right, after all, *I* am the Nate Silver of conservative politics!

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        (in booming voice) You aren’t arguing with MATH are you?

      • Bryan
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

        HAHAHAHA

    • bks
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Probability of Obama re-election…………….: 98% (99% with Bayesian prior)
      Probability of Obama winning popular vote: 94%
      Probable outcome in electoral college……..: Obama 323-215 Romney
      Source: http://election.princeton.edu/

      –bks

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        I don’t even think Obama and his team believes his reelection is 75% certain, let alone 98%.

      • Mike
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 2:51 am | Permalink

        There are trolls and then bks……….lost in space!!

  4. petep
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Very nice. Wasn’t there also a coalition of rich libs that organized in CO a decade or so ago that spent a ton of money on local races and really helped CO go very purple and the legislature blue?

  5. Kent O
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Colorado is the least of my worries right now.

    Just need Whisky, OIHO, or PA to fall for Romney and it’s OVER.

  6. sr
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I heard Cuyohoga county in OH had a very good yesterday? can someone fill in on the EV no:s is OH?

  7. Zang
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith – your blog gets a mention here: http://www.pointoflaw.com/archives/2012/11/my-election-prediction.php

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      thanks for the heads-up. Interesting write-up

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      From the linked article: “I’m not going to succumb to the fake precision of Nate Silver’s model and suggest I can forecast with three significant digits.”

      OMG! I love this quote! To me it really says nearly everything you need to consider to realize that Nate Silver is full of…

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        Not “Around 80 percent”, not “Eighty three percent”, but as of the time of this writing “83 and seven tenths of a percent”… seven tenths of a percent?!??… really? That third digit, if not even the second digit is utter bluster. No one can forecast that close. It’s meaningless… as is most if not all of Nate Silver’s oblivious analysis.

      • bks
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

        “All that said, if I had a gun to my head the morning of November 3, I would rate Obama a slight favorite, with about 60% to 40% chances …” ibid.

        –bks

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

        I didn’t say I agreed with his conclusion, I said I loved the quote.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The guy doesn’t even know ME02 is in play, and posits that NE02 is. What is it with these statistic jocks who wade into politics thinking alpha dog that don’t even know the lay of the land. Excess polling has had a significant downdraft of intelligent observations. It’s been reduced to absurd claims of absolute knowledge by the math club.

      • Matthew Schultz
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        It’s the desire to use science to predict outcomes.

        A legacy of the Enlightenment, really.

  8. Ken
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m very thankful to have come across this site due to the RCP Narnia link, which is how a lot of us got here. I hope there is some way, after the election is over and the dust settles, that we can help Keith transform / grow this site into something with a drudgelike but yet discussion / community oriented metamorphasized new type of political site. I have enjoyed reading everyone’s take and honesty, even the weed smoking bitter clingers.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +1. I believe this is only the beginning for Keith.

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s a big endeavor to create a long lasting, high traffic, successful website. I wish Keith all the best.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I got here because I was emo’ing in an RCP thread and someone replied with this site and said “go there to feel better, son”, or something like that, lol.

    • Matthew Schultz
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Keith could use this site to evaluate poll data and suggest superior methods of polling. During down times (i.e., no House/Senate or Presidential elections) he could evaluate state and local elections.

  9. trux
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    OFA is sending Bill Clinton to North Carolina tomorrow. That seems like really bad news for us (just as them sending him to MN and PA is good news).

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Head fake. These O guys are all about the “narrative” and not about the reality. The problem is that EV in NC for them is about 6-8% off of 2008, and they are trying to goose turnout with BC. Additionally it feeds the “messing with their heads” narrative that they have tried to establish for PA. These guys seem to be replicating the “Last Days of McCain” campaign. Flailing about for a message in the last 14 days? Check. Desperate personal attacks on the opponent? Check. Rally in Mentor, OH gym on the last weekend of campaign? Check. Spending time all on defense? Check. Hail Mary deep in the opposition the last weekend? Check.

      • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

        And a completely obvious head fake it is 😉

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

        I agree. Without checking the internals on these polls, I suspect that things are even worse for O than the top line numbers reflected in the last 15 or so polls in NC:

        Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
        RCP Average 10/21 – 10/31 — — 49.8 46.0 Romney +3.8
        PPP (D) 10/29 – 10/31 730 LV 3.6 49 49 Tie
        SurveyUSA 10/26 – 10/29 682 LV 3.8 50 45 Romney +5
        Rasmussen Reports 10/25 – 10/25 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6
        Gravis Marketing 10/24 – 10/24 1723 LV 2.4 53 45 Romney +8
        PPP (D) 10/23 – 10/25 880 LV 3.3 48 48 Tie
        Elon University 10/21 – 10/26 1238 LV 2.8 45 45 Tie
        Civitas (R) 10/20 – 10/21 600 LV 4.0 48 47 Romney +1
        Rasmussen Reports 10/17 – 10/17 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6
        PPP (D) 10/12 – 10/14 1084 LV 3.0 49 47 Romney +2
        Rasmussen Reports 10/9 – 10/9 500 LV 4.5 51 48 Romney +3
        Gravis Marketing 10/6 – 10/8 1325 LV 2.9 50 41 Romney +9
        Rasmussen Reports 10/2 – 10/2 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Romney +4
        SurveyUSA 9/29 – 10/1 573 LV 4.2 47 49 Obama +2
        ARG 9/28 – 9/30 600 LV 4.0 50 46 Romney +4

    • Zang
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I wonder how Bill feels about being sent to all the 2nd and 3rd tier states

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Even in the worst losing scenario, would there not be some state that would be chosen as the most likely target?, maybe not realistically likely, but the most likely nonetheless? Obama cannot win with just Ohio, he has to target something.

    • Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think polling in NC is understating the degree to which Military (Ft Bragg, NC) is VERY p***ed at Obama re Benghazi. I see no upside for Bubba going there for Dems unless it is in Greensboro where some media may bleed over border into Danville, VA.

      I’d bet my house NC electoral votes go for Romney.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

        Here’s how delusional people can be, my dad actually argued while I was talking with him the other day that he thought the military would break for Obama… LOL!

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sounds like a case of revenge. Clearly annoyed at Romney’s push for PA, so Clinton takes a little trip to NC. Besides, if they really want to fight for NC, would they not send Obama? and lots of Ads?
      I agree Head Fake of the century!

      • trux
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

        Well, Clinton is their number one surrogate, so it am worried it is a bit more than a head fake. But if that is the consensus here, then I guess I can accept it…but still feel uncomfortable.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        They have to send him somewhere.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

        Sure, but worry if Ryan is going there in the next two days.

      • RhodyKev
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

        and he still hasn’t come good on his promise to go back since the convention fail to fill the stadium

      • Jeni
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

        Well, Clinton is more popular than Obama!

    • Prescient11
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      trux,

      You need to know the numbers. North Carolina is gone. And that asshole who admitted voting 4 times and going to do a 5th on election day should serve a multiyear prison sentence.

      • nvClark
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

        So much for the claim that in person voting fraud has never been established (which I always scoffed at, because if you don’t require identification to vote then how could you ever establish it)

    • bks
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Based on early voting, “[Romney] would have to win 65 percent of the remaining votes in North Carolina, …”
      http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265739-obama-campaign-says-it-has-advantage-in-early-voting

      –bks

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

        What else r they going to say? That is why RR haven’t step foot in NC since when? Sept.?

      • lotmini
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

        i have lived in nc all my life. o won nc by 14000 votes in o8. is he going to do as well? of course not. it has been over for o here before the first debate. nc will be called early by fox anyways. people cant wait to vote against o on election day and i can tell u for sure that o has cannabilized his vote. Blacks are almost 30% of early vote. they have all voted already. huge dem crossover here too.

      • kenberthiaume
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

        last time obama was up in EV by 52/28, this time it’s 48/32. So at least it’s an improvement. And the number of total EVs is about the same as last time. Swining from 24 to 16 is atuall a big improvement. Last time it was barely won by Obama so 65% or not….I don’t see how he wins this time. Especially as independents will probably break worse for him and they’ll be a few more dem crossovers to republicans.

      • Prescient11
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

        bks,

        Please tell me you are joking? I mean wtf? 14k votes won it for zero in ’08. Ds are down 35k in early voting. Pubs up 80k.

        you tell me where this goes. zero gave up on it long enough.

      • Mike
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 2:56 am | Permalink

        Put about 20 to 25 percent of Dixie democrats in Romney side and then bring about 65 percent of Indies….Romney will win NC by at least 5%

  10. Kyle
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is the file you want on Cuyahoga.. This includes mail in and in-person votes even though the header says “vote by mail” i.e. this is the total. It doesn’t appear that the overall early vote will be much less than it was in 2008. Perhaps 5% less.

    http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow, this is awesome. Nice post.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Cuyahoga is 228K right now. In 2008 it was 252K. That’s about 24K, or about 8-9%.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Interstestingly is that the absentee requests are now done. Down 100k for Dems. Up 30 k for Repubs compared to 08.

      • sr
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        Can someone help me with EV and mail in ballots: how does it compare in OH with 2008? the charts above are not very reassuring…

  11. Brad
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    QOTD….

    “But watching [Obama] for four years, I realize what I should have known all along, which is that he didn’t come into office with any feel for running a big operation. He has probably learned a thing or two, I’ll give him that.

    “But he isn’t a good negotiator. I don’t think he enjoys the back and forth, or the sheer work. He strikes me as the type of person I have encountered, someone who makes what they think is a great argument, and then expects everyone to sign on to it. That’s not how things happen in organizations. Getting buy-in is hard work and has to be done on a retail basis. Lyndon Johnson was great at this, on the domestic front. He just had a lot of other issues that wrecked his presidency. President Obama is more like Jimmy Carter in this regard, a smart guy who thinks that smarts is enough.”

    Read more here: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/editor/late-voting#storylink=cpy

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RE: “But he isn’t a good negotiator.”

      I followed a link in another thread here on Battlegroundwatch to a Huffingtonpost article where Obama was quoted as saying he was interested in bipartisan agreements, but not if he had to compromise on anything he considered to be important.

      I LOL’d at that.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      0bama is very generous in his assessments of his own intellect, anyway. His IQ is probably no higher than 125-130. That’s smart, but not “smartest guy in the room” in DC, much less the White House. He’s probably frequently the dumbest guy in the room with any power.

      • Ron
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:55 am | Permalink

        His grade pt. average at Columbia, according to someone who knew him well there, was 2.6–with lots of incompletes.

  12. Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Shred away Keith. Latest Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Obama up 46-45 in Ohio with a D+8 sample. http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ipsosstate110312.pdf

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      um D+8 with Obama at 46 and 1 point ahead. Good lord just how bad is it getting for O…

      • J.Q. Public
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        Unfortunately, the same Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Obama +3 in Virginia with the party ID at D+2. Do we have to worry about VA? God, I hope not!

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That could be it for O in OH, barring some major disaster. Looks like R was cruising, there was some (a bit) of tightening, and now it’s coming home. With adjustment to reasonable DRI it looks like R is up about 3-4% in this poll?

    • nvClark
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ok, I promise, this is the last time I’ll do this… it’s getting 330 to 350 electoral votes bad 🙂

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      no that’s good. It takes him to d+8 to be up 1 point and with the late breakers probably lose anyway.

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gosh, just imagine if it ends up R+1

    • Dogfish
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s been bad for America for the last 4 years… now it’s time for it to be bad for O

  13. Zang
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/03/over-1-million-early-votes-cast-so-far-in-ohio/

    1.6 million early votes to date. About 6 million total votes were cast in 2008. Most of the state polls claim that over 40% have already voted early. That would be 2,400,000 votes!

    If the same polls split the early vote 60-40 in favor of Romney, you can imagine how it skews the topline. Basically, the poll is creating 800,000 phantom early voters.

    Do the math… It doesn’t add up.

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Blackwell is on Huckabee right now. Sounds like a lot of requests for absentee ballots have not come back and will need provisional ballots if they vote on Election Day. It could be these are the 800k discrepancy?

    • Publius
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hi Zang,

      Is 40% the figure for those who reported early voting or those who voted plus those who plan to vote early ? If the latter then the 1.6 million figure would have to be increased in linear proportion to the number of days left for early voting. I haven’t done the math myself but given the few days left the increase would probably still fall far short of 2.4 million, isn’t it ?

  14. Zang
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s another reason why the Obama camp wants to make this seem locked up and out of reach for Romney. They want people to develop a “why bother” attitude about coming out to vote. Not only would this hurt Romney, it could have a big impact down ticket.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/03/in-ohio-at-least-1-6-million-cast-early-votes/

    “Despite the patience exhibited by most voters, some refused to put up with the rush. One woman took the elevator down to the basement-level election office and turned back into the elevator when she saw the crowd. “Line’s too long,” she said. “I’ll just wait till Tuesday.””

    • mdc
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My niece who lives in Warren County (Ohio) waited an hour to vote today (Romney)…
      Ohioans are motivated!

  15. Medicine Man
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Will be interesting when the final Gallup poll comes out R + 1. Blood is going to shoot out of someone’s eyes.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Party ID I mean.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      TIPP is also going to swing to Romney, and that NJ poll showing +5 Obama will drop off.

      • trux
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        Why is TIPP going to swing?

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

        There’s a big sunday previous day dropping off.

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Our good friends at PPP see it as Obama +3 in this evening’s national poll (50-47) with a voter ID of D+5. If it’s R+1, game over.

      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_113.pdf

      • trux
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

        That could indicate an actual swing toward Obama this weekend. Was D+8 yesterday and had Obama up only 1.

      • JGS
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

        I think it was D+6 yesterday in the PPP national poll (not D+8). I still take your point.

      • opa-opa
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

        PPP is so worthless that RCP doesn’t even mention them. Why waste time analyzing it?

  16. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well, this is what the Obama campaign is counting on — superior GOTV ground game. They are certainly not acting like they believe they have this in the bag.

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/obama-camp-trumpets-massive-ground-game-on-election-eve/

  17. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Revenge

    I just looked around, and its at the top of The Hill and Drudge have it at the top.

    Buzzfeed doesn’t even have an article on it. Politico only has an article of Obama’s explanation of it.

    And Biden? talking mics and hell, hahahha:

  18. JGS
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This one concerns me a bit, because it is Des Moines Register and they just endorsed Romney. Their final Iowa poll shows Obama +5. Have not yet studied internals, it does not appear that this article links to the actual survey and I cannot see anything about voter ID. It does show a very substantial early voting lead for Obama.

    http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/11/03/iowa-poll-final-stretch-in-iowa-gives-edge-to-obama/article

    • TheTorch
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well need to see the internals.

      But there is one way to look at this. Who does this motivate to GOTV on Tuesday?

      GOP!

    • Zang
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The pollster they used for this poll also said Obama would win Iowa in 08 by 17 points. Final margin was 9.5

    • NP
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      These guys are always skewed to Dems..Wrong in both 2004 and 2008 by big huge numbers..

    • M.White
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I read the article, can’t find the actual poll but I will say is a little weird…O47/R42, no one at 50%, where is the other 11%. Also, a very small sample size. I also believe the polling agency that conducted the poll is a democratic agency. Without looking at internals, I am just not sure. The poll seems more than a little iffy. When you can’t find internals it makes me a little suspicious. This could be a fake out from the Des Moines Register to motivate Romney voters or the other way around, just can’t make sense of it. Also, I thought Romney was doing really well in early voting but this article states otherwise. May need more insight from other people on the site to help!
      One more thing, Michael Barone is on Huckabee right now, still sticking by his prediction, not backing down, he actually enforcing it!

      • No Tribe
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

        No. Selzer is not Democratic. They are a very good polling firm. But, for some reason, they excel in the primaries but not in the GE’s.

      • M.White
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

        Just looked at the pollsters website…very democratic polling company, endorsed by NBC, MSNBC and many liberal newspapers and media outlets. Ann Selzer the owner praises Nate Silver of being the best in the business, 100% accurate she says.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Well, in 2008, they were right about Obama’s number. Then they polled 54 for Obama and that is what he got. McCain got 100% of the undecided in the Selzer poll. So if Obama is at 47% well, that’s where he’s at!

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I wouldn’t confuse an endorsement with a well done poll.

  19. No Tribe
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They have a chart on this page of the people still without power:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2227307/Hurricane-Sandy-Lawlessness-outer-boroughs-New-York-enter-sixth-day-power.html

    Millions of people. This is going to have a very big effect on the national outcome? Maybe they have nothing to do but vote so do it too. Hard to predict.

  20. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is a good article posted at Hillbuzz.org, it had me laughing at part of the heading:

    “100% chance that Nate Silver’s career collapses into ruin.”

    http://hillbuzz.org/final-2012-election-predictions-romney-wins-white-house-gop-keeps-house-and-republicans-take-senate-100-chance-that-nate-silvers-career-collapses-into-ruin-25460

  21. perdogg
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    new Minnesota poll has Romney 46-45

  22. edtitan77
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Minnesota poll Romney with slight lead.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html

  23. edtitan77
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like the polls are coming out fast and furious now.

    New Hampshire tie

    http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres110312.pdf

    • JGS
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      As best I can tell, voter ID in this new NH poll is D+2. Keith trashed the Marist NH poll recently that had a voter ID of D+1, noting that 2008 voter ID was D+2 and in 2004 it was R+7.

      So this seems pretty favorable.

    • No Tribe
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Now that’s a good Romney poll. Look at that Independent surge for Romney.

      “Romney runs strongest in the vote rich Manchester area and in towns along the Massachusetts border while Obama gets more support in the North Country and in the Connecticut River valley. ”

      This will not be the case election night. Obama got slaughtered up north by Clinton– that’s how she won.

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

        He will be ending it right in Manchester Monday night and I’m going to be there!

      • NP
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

        UNH does this every election cycle. Huge leads for dems O+14, O+9 and right before election they do some real work..

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow, this has been heavily leaning Obama + 6 and 12 the last two piolls. Coming back to earth. I can tell you that we are fired up here in the Live Free or Die state. Going to see him Monday night with Kid Rock and poll watching all day. Can’t wait!

      • Dave Ped
        Posted November 3, 2012 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

        I am in Litchfield NH and have lived here now 14 years. My take is that NH will go Romney for sure. Signs everywhere and not many O signs. There are a LOT of ads on radio and TV from the campaign and 3rd party that are everywhere and very good – many more R ads. I have recieved calls to make sure to vote, I see people with holding big signs for Ovide and Romney at our dump. The NRA has called me several times. I can just tell Romney team is doing a great job in this state. I think the wife and I will go on Monday to Verizon center too.

  24. Bucknutz
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A story from politico – http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/mn_key_findings_memo_bolger1.html

    Romney UP 1 – 46% to 45%
    13 point advantage in Independents for Romney

  25. TheTorch
    Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Mitt and Ann Romney in Colorado Live in about 5 minutes –
    http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Mitt-Romney-Campaigns-in-Suburban-Denver-Colorado/10737435575/

    Enjoy!

    • O'BuhBye
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks

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