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The Choice
This entry was written by keithbacker, posted on November 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm, filed under General, Ohio and tagged revenge. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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Battleground Watch 
106 Comments
The whole speech was amazing, but what a contrast! I don’t even know what Obama was talking about. Revenge for what? Why is he such a spiteful man? He looks so small compared to Romney.
Revenge for what is the correct question. I cant tell if he forgets he is president or if he thinks we will if he keeps inferring it.
It appears he was talking about when Romney was a candidate for Senate he said Bill Clinton’s economic plan wouldn’t work.
The crowd started to boo, and that’s when Obama said “Dont boo, vote – voting is the best revenge.”
During Obama’s speech today, he was talking about Romney and the crowd booed. Obama said not to boo but to vote, because voting is the best revenge. My thought was, revenge for what? It was cheap and tacky and Romney slammed him good tonight.
That was a Freudian slip IMO – I’ve heard Obama say that line at some point(s) in near every rally he does for months & months now. This was the first time I ever heard him say “revenge”. Biden is fully unhinged on the stump at this point. They’re all totally cracking under the pressure.
Can’t stand Obama, but that was probably just a slip of the tongue.
Frankly, I think that’s where Obama lives.
That’s Chicago politics – don’t try to convince the other guy you’re right, take him out at the knees.
Susquehanna poll of PA
Romney leading Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.
In the same sample Smith is at 48% to Casey’s 46%
http://goperiepa.com/archives/4499/
D.M. Hawkins ?@HawkinsUSA
Susquehanna predicted Toomey by 2 (it was 2) and Corbet by 7 (was 9) in 2010 @coltsfan4jesus @nj1000_paul @NumbersMuncher @LSchweikart
Are they a non-partisan polling outfit?
As far as I know they are non partison, they have been very close to perfect on past predictions and know the state very well
According to their website, they are a GOP polling firm:
Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research (SP&R) is a leading survey research and political polling firm for both candidates for public office (GOP only), as well as numerous corporate clients including trade associations, public relations firms and the media.
http://www.susquehannapolling.com/aboutus.html
The polls are paid for by the GOP. They do have a good track record in PA. The other polls were not paid for by the GOP or Democrats. If this true or close to true then the election is over.
I went to their website…Susquehanna Polling and Research. Tried to find the poll but it says “Newsflash” poll will be posting on their website soon, then we can look at the internals.
I was trying to find it, too. I’m relatively new to looking into the “internals” of polls. I know this is a GOP-leaning firm. How do you generally view their methodology?
They are a state polling firm who have been very close in past elections throughout their state….I would trust polls that actually come from the home state then an out of state polling firm polling a state…..Romney has a very good shot at PA
Thank you. I know I’m ending this day feeling much better than I started it! Can’t wait to cast my vote from Chester County, PA on Tuesday!
Jeni – Take two or three friends to the poll with you!
Neil…gonna do my best! It saddens me how many people, seemingly willingly, stick their heads in the sand and just reiterate the Democratic talking points. Was trying to engage a friend in conversation the other night…he got so mad at me for challenging his assumptions that he hung up on me.
They are a repub leaning firm in that they do work for Repubs. BUT, they were the first to show Romney close to O in Penn (way back in Sept). I heard the guy being interviewed by Ed Morissey at Hotair and they seemed very credible. They are very open with their methodology which allows us to assess their polling.
here is an interview that Ed Morissey from HOT AIR did with them…the outfit seems very credible.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/01/video-pa-pollster-calls-state-too-close-to-call-discusses-polling-bias-and-criticism/
Agree – this group is legit. Not sure if being a GOP paid poll has affected it but a 4 point lead is still good news. Even if it shades a few points heavy with a good GOTV on Tuesday Romney could win PA.
THAT was a great response! What a choice we have! R & R you got this Iowa vote and I’d crawl through glass to get it done!
Friday, Nov 2 = 14,234
Dems = 5,343 Reps =5,348
where?
I’m guessing Washoe County, Nevada
Is this IA’s EV?
washoe county
It’s Nevada NHCons. Iowa is looking good for Romney, I am cautiously optimistic.
Yeah, Nevada is gone…
I know NV is a long shot but why do the numbers above tell you it is gone? I am having a hard time interpreting all the early voting stuff. So much spin around it.
Romney had to do better in Washoe county, because he is going to lose Clark Co. (Vegas) big time. Romney will dominate the other areas of the state, but they are sparsely populated. I guess people in NV like high unemployment?!
It is the Vegas unions. That will be the entire difference this year. Still see Romney coming within 3 to 4 and his paying attention to NV for so long has helped Tark and will help us hold the Senate seat.
+5 votes in Washoe….dang.
+5 for us! It will be all about the Indi’s
Not just the independents – what about right thinking Democrats. I hope & sense there may be a small but steady & above-average stream of Romney votes in those Democrat coffers. There is political correctness and union intimidation in the midst of Nevada such that folks may have heard Wynn and others warn and just not tell anybody. Just caught the Romney line about Obama (Freudian slip IMO) “revenge” that he rather wants people to vote for love of country. GO R&R GO!
Found out that Glenn Beck was in Columbus tonight and had between 3000-5000 people tonight. LOL…he had more people at his rally than Obama had in Hilliard. Plus, add in the HUGE crowd for Mitt tonight. Folks, Ohio is going to pull through for the good guys!
What if we got…. Ohio AND Pennsylvania?
I would pass out like Clark Griswald in Christmas Vacation when his boss told him about the big Christmas bonus he would receive. I was feeling a bit discouraged earlier today, but it’s good to head to bed with some great, positive news! Go Mitt!
and MN? Pray for one and hope for all 🙂
Republican polling firm. I really wish there would be more GOP polls to combat ppp
Want to bet they aren’t talking about this on Daily Kos? lol
Miami hearld has romney up 51-46
Maybe a dumb question: Florida or Overall?
Link?
NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
Mason-Dixon poll of FL has Romney up 6, 51-45, based on independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats. http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html …
Thanks.
Ok, I’m brand new here and probably shouldn’t reveal my neuroses right away, but I sense you’re a non-judgmental crowd. After learning today that Romney’s coming to PA, then Bill’s 4-stop visit, then the new Susquehanna poll showing Romney up…any chance that this will be counter-productive in terms of revving up Obama’s base, who may have previously been relatively unmotivated?
PA seems to be a state that Romney may have intentionally let sleep with the hopes of stealing it at the end and catching the Democrats sleeping. Romney is now massively outspending Obama here in PA. The activity today was unreal. The faucet just turned on full blast. I think the Romney team did a head fake on PA several months ago when they “leaked” that they wouldn’t contest PA. That probably relaxed the Obama campaign. While I am accustomed to being disappointed by my state in general elections, I am starting to get a completely different feeling this time.
One other thing. The level and coordination of all this activity tells me clearly that this was planned a while back. Thus, I highly doubt it is a Hail Mary. Not guaranteeing a win in PA but starting to feel much better.
You make great points! I’m in Chester County and have been amazed at the ads/calls I’ve gotten today. Hopefullly, we won’t be “Fool’s Gold” this tiime around!
I have to agree with Formnb’s assessment.
Romney has run a very tight campaign. After the GOP Convention down here in Tampa things still looked iffy, and after the Dems Convention all the way up to the 1st debate. The narrative was “Obama has it in the bag”
That Denver debate changed everything. In 90 minutes over $300 million in negative advertising went up in smoke. Once Mitt got a lead in the National Polls he didn’t let up off the gas. All the pundits were saying “Stay out of PA!” I do think this move in PA was planned and as Formnb’s suggestion. Was done so at this late stage to catch the Dems napping.
I am catching reports that Dems are in a struggle to rev up their GOTV ground game in the Philly area, There is a noticeable lack of enthusiasm.
3 more days then I am going to kick back and enjoy the festivities. I already voted. My district is very RED. Only person left to vote in my family is my mother. She wasn’t feeling well on Wed when I took my father to the early voting station. My wife will either take her tomorrow or I will on Tues. I have Tues & Wed off so I plan on being up all night celebrating.
This was a well planned stealth move. I think they would have come earlier if the voter ID law was upheld. In a way, this helped preserve the stealth. O is now caught with his pants down and can’t suddenly change course.
Reagan pivot!!!
They had lines waiting for Obamaphones in PA too before Sandi – I just don’t know if that’s the kind of inspiration that will bring all their folks to the polls. GOTV!
Miami Herald/Mason Dixon: RR 6 point lead over O. 51-45.
I’m brand new to this site and found many inspiring and encouraging posts. I live in California and our state is “hopeless” …. We are surrounded by people who believe that O will win and needs to win so it can get really depressing sometimes. My question is that do all of you have some real data or reason (s) to believe that Romney will carry Ohio? I don’t want to get my hopes up (and all of my friends – yes, there are so many of us who aren’t left wing liberals in this state) only to be depressed. When I heard a 3 political pundits on Gretta on Fox saying the race is tied with a slight lean toward O in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. I’m really confused. I actually like Romney’s chances in PA more because I have some friends that live there and they are really seeing and feeling movement toward R & R. Also, their in state polling firm has been predicting R closing or winning. I just wish I can depend on some really good facts or reliable sources (non biased) about Ohio and Wisconsin. Honestly, I have NO IDEA why R & R ticket isn’t up by 20 points nationally. The last 4 years have been a real disaster.
CAcitizen – welcome! I’m on the ground here in Columbus. I have lived in OH 40 yrs. Romney is winning this state. The RR support is huge and it is everywhere. The O supporters are quiet. I know many Dems who are crossing over this election. I love how these pundits look at these crappy oversampled polls and think it’s a tight race or in Obama’s direction. They don’t know crap about Ohio.
The polls are WAY oversampling Dems and it’s a product of their methodologies with early voting (which is dominated by Dems here in the state) and loose LV screens. Thus when they show it Obama leads, it is with populations of Dems that are unheard of in this state.
Romney is talking Ohio
We are depending on you Ohio! I’m in CA so we must depend on fellow conservatives from other states. In this election, all things point to Ohio so I know that we are asking a lot of you. We thank you for all you’ve done so far to get R & R this close. I hope and pray that you and your friends get every single vote out on election day. Also, we need to make sure that we get enough margin to overcome any legal challenges or irregular voting. Thank you so much for giving us some reason to hope here. I feel like I’m getting addicted to this site.
We will win Ohio – and it won’t be as close as the national media would think!
Dear cacitizen, 2 of the men on Greta’s Show are from liberal outfits, Rick Klein, ABC Washington Political Editor, the other one from The Hill another liberal outfit and the 3rd guy is moderate although he does write for the Weekly Standard. Not sure why Greta is using some of these liberal minded pundits, she even uses one some nights from the NYTimes. Rick Klein did say it was anyone’ game, that’s different from previous nights when he was all Obama. Don’t worry!
Ok California – Here’s the shtick.
I believe that GMR has a better chance in PA than Ohio. And GMR will win Ohio.
There is no early voting in PA other than absentee ballots. You’ve got to want to go on Tuesday.
Unemployment rate is higher in PA than Ohio – ~8.2% in PA. Black population in Philly unemployment rate is over 14%.
GMR doing very well with likely voters with upper middle class. This is 1/4 of PA voters and 1/8 of Ohio voters. Also PA is a very Republican state with 52 of 67 counties GOP controlled, 12 of 19 Congressional Districts, State House, State Senate and Governor. Very red.
South Philly, Scranton – very patriotic blue collar areas where people stand for the Pledge of Allegiance. Pennsylvania has almost 1 million veterans – and I know that military families are LIVID about this Benghazi CRAP. Sorry – just typing is makes the hair on my neck stand up.
NE PA – Three Catholic hospitals in PA were sold because of the HHS mandate. As a Roman Catholic – it matters.
Western and NE PA – Coal country. PBO has declared war on coal.
Central PA is conservative.
Dems are not showing up in 08 numbers. Repubs are enthused.
This is why ABC, NBC, CNN, CBS are all underreporting Benghazi and downplaying the increase in unemployment rate. They know PBO cannot survive disheartened supporters. They have to convince them that he’s winning so they’ll show up to the polls.
Neil
All of these factors should spell a resounding win for R & R. Let’s hope and pray that people go out and VOTE on Tuesday. Not for revenge but for the love of this wonderful country! What kind of president encourages “revenge” for anything? WOW! I can’t believe that we’ve put up him for the last 4 years. BTW, I would LOVE to have Anne Romney as our first lady. She is so classy, intelligent, compassionate and elegant. Let’s go PA!
The thing is, Ohio is a more conservative state than PA. There is a “baked in” advantage here.
Ohio runs about 1-2 points more Republican vs. the national turnout. Meaning if Romney gets 51% nationally he will get 52-53% in Ohio.
Ohio is always about 5 points more R than PA in any given presidential year.
If I had to guess- my 40-years-in-Ohio gut instinct is that RR is up by probably 3-5 points here.
To be competitive in PA, within a point or two, means you must be up at least 3 points in Ohio.
To be committing to PA this much at this late critical stage of the campaign, I would have to guess RR would have to be seeing that they are up nearly 5 points in Ohio. Otherwise going to PA makes no sense. If there was any real concern about Ohio RR would be all over IA and WI. Judging by the sparse crowds (and I mean crowds in the loosest sense of the word) that O is getting in OH, the state has tuned him out.
I don’t think PA is a head-fake. RR is up enough that it is not a McCain style hail-mary bomb pass. The only logical reason to go after PA is if you:
1. See it as winnable
2. Think OH is in the bag
I think RR is going for PA for mandate purposes. To be the first Republican to take PA since 1984 would be historic and give RR clout to go in and start getting stuff done day #1.
I think RR is thinking big here.
There is a rumor that in Philadelphia that the ward captains will not be receiving WAM (walking around money) for Tuesday. While there is no way to ascertain if this is true or not, if it is then turnout in Philadelphia will be down significantly. WAM is used for “motivation” in helping certain people with getting to the polls.
I can’t see that holding if Obama really believes PA is in play. They would have no choice.
Agree. Not sure I believe it to be honest unless they are stretched so thin that they think other priorities are more important.
If I was James O’Keefe, I would do a little walking around in Philadelphia myself on Tues….complete with hidden button camera, of course.
Too many cell phones with video cameras. Just think of the YouTube hits of folks watching PBO supporters handing out money for votes.
Hmmm – I wonder… 😉
Long tradition in some areas. I believe they get around “paying for votes” by paying people to drive other people to the polls.
Not to be naive, but isn’t it a felony to pay people to vote?
I just saw the Colin Powell ad for Obama. Wow, that ad makes him look like a total tool. It sounds like he’s reading a script Obama personally wrote for him.
Yea, and now he is some kind of expert on the economy.
Notice he has been avoiding the media since his last minute endorsement again. I have said in a previous post that this man was not given opportunities to hold high office by Democrats, they must not have believed in him years ago, it was the Republicans that gave him those important jobs. Turncoat!!! And that is the way I feel about Gov. Christie right now! Romney will win and I hope he doesn’t turn around and give Christie a job in the Cabinet. I would be PISSED!
Wow. Colin Powell’s brand in now out the window. Sununu had Powell nailed completely right. I wish Powell would just own up to it already.
Now Obama Is Trying To Scare Liberals Into Voting with this new web video (The 100th Day of the Romney Administration)
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-get-out-the-vote-2012-11#ixzz2B83BU2HB
http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/11/03/obama-scare-tacticsnow-obama-is-trying-to-scare-liberals-into-voting-watch-the-video/
Wow! That may give me more confidence than anything…how desperate looking! And, they sure do give Mitt a whole bunch of credit for getting things done in his first 100 days…
Poll: Mitt Romney maintains lead over Obama, 51-45
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html#storylink=cpy
I’ve been saying for a month or so that Romney’s best chance to win was through Pennsylvania. I’m feeling like MN might be a last second steal too.
Don’t forget WI…probably the best OH alternative of them all.
I think hell get wi brad … Good cAll. We can all remember the abc exit poll in recall race two hours before polls closed saying 50-50 race. I have two close friends in wisconsin… They say three to one romney signs right outside of madison
How crazy is it that the CO economic model predictably left NV off the pick up list for Romney.
Obama and Romney look very tired.
I still say NV is in play because election day is going to be a R blowout, knock on wood.
I actually thought GMR looked pretty good. PBO sounded frantic. (Yes – I listened to his speech on C-Span)
Romney will win Pennsylvania
http://www.freerepublic.com/%5Ehttp://dailycaller.com/2012/11/02/romney-will-win-pennsylvania/
Last 5 polls in PA O+4(Franklin and Marshall College), O+5(Rasmussen), O+3 (Gravis), O+3(Pharos), O+5(Muhlenberg). I left out the Philadelphia Inquirer poll of Obama+6 to balance the new Susquehanna poll of Romney+4.
–bks
bks, you routinely post the top lines of the polls. Do you care about the underlying, or are you taking them all at face value and just assuming they all are correct and equal?
Bob, I think you answered your own question. 🙂
I used to work in survey research (I’m a programmer, though, not a political scientist). I believe the pollsters know more about the internals of their polls than I do. Here is a good article about bias in polls:
http://votamatic.org/another-look-at-survey-bias/
–bks
I read the article. If i read it correctly, it takes and average of all the polls and says, “Everyone is biased, so the result must be in the middle.”
I don’t buy that premise.
One of the comments that made sense to me was the guy talking about LV screens, and how on lower turnout years, stricter LV screens will be more accurate, and on higher turnout years, less restrictive LV screens will work better.
While more votes will likely be cast this year, due to the increased population, as percentage of RV’s their likely will be smaller percentage of the electorate.
Meaning stricter LV screens will work better this year, which are – you guessed it – the Rep leaning pollsters..
Some fairly craptacular new polls out from Marist.
Oh yeah? Of course. Obama up 12 in Ohio with a D+22 turnout?
Up 6, +9
I looked at the internals…D+9, Wow, they are going all out!
In Ohio?! Wow. Well if the Dems do have a +9 advantage Obama will win Ohio. Thats what I was saying to a liberal friend last night. I said, if the dems have a +6 national advantage and +9 in Ohio then yeah Obama will win. But I don’t know why firms like Marist think that is what the electorate will look like.
I doubt they’ll even be a +9 here in Oregon.
O is going to double his D turnout in OH from 2008 even though he’s down 260k in early votes. Yeah, for sure!
Down 260k relative to his 2008 pace that is…
Ohio you have to come through for rr. Friend just told me she voted for o’moron. Won’t matter because it is Oregon, but she did it because her job depends on implementing obamacare. If we don’t stop this now, the country may be doomed. More and more will vote themselves benefits at the expense of the treasury.
Well my vote will cancel hers out. 🙂
Today Triple Play (credit to Ace of Spades commenter)
B. J. Clinton: “I may be the only person in the country who is more excited about Barack’s second term than I was for his first term.”
Crazy Joe Biden: “There has never been a day in the last four years that I’ve been proud to be his VP!”
Barky McFuckstick Obama: “Dont Boo, Vote! Vote! Vote! Voting is the best Revenge!”
So BIll tells them nobody is excited about another Obama Term, Joe tells them he has never been proud of being stuck as the SCoaMF’s VP, and then Obama McFuckstick Igot Bin Laden tells the american public to Vote cause Voting is the best revenge. Either noone has clued this dipshit into the fact that HE is the incumbent, or…Yeah, I am 99.9% sure they are working for the Romney campaign.
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can’t get better than this!!!!
Keep it clean please – children are following this blog.
And in Crazy Joe’s own words: “I always say what I mean.”
Very Stunning Post on RCP _ with a Keith style mathematic analysis. !!! Must Read
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-a-twist-obama-the-democrat-is-depending-on-ohio-20121101
Obama may need to do something Democrats have almost never done in the past nine decades: win a higher share of the vote in the state than he does nationally. Almost always, the GOP nominee has run stronger in Ohio than nationally. That’s not entirely surprising in a place that served as one of the birthplaces of the Republican Party and where two native sons, William McKinley and his legendary political strategist Mark Hanna, stamped the GOP’s modern identity as the pro-business party of small government in the realigning election of 1896.
Since 1924, the only Democratic presidential nominees who attracted a higher share of the popular vote in Ohio than nationally were Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, and Kerry in 2004. And of those four, only Johnson (at 1.8 percentage points) improved on his national vote by more than 0.6 percentage points in Ohio. Since World War II, the Democratic presidential nominee has carried, on average, almost exactly 1 percentage point less of the popular vote in Ohio than he did nationally. >> with Polls showing Ohio a TIE or with RR ahead…..of obama – almost statistically impossible for Obama to carry Ohio
I have to say the line from the speech above is one they need to get on the airwaves somehow.
People will be pissed at Obama and it will definitely tug the patriotic heartstrings.
It’s pretty devastating from the point of view of a guy who feels like he’s pretty patriotic.
@Formmb “PA seems to be a state that Romney may have intentionally let sleep with the hopes of stealing it at the end and catching the Democrats sleeping.”
I think so. Saw an interview with former PA Gov Tom Ridge who said they’ve made more voter contacts this year than they did in 2004 and 2008 combined. He says it will be close but he said the Reps will win PA. Didn’t hedge, said the Reps will win.
The fact they’ve got their organization up and moving while Obama’s team appears to be scrambling is another piece of anecdotal evidence that the Romney camp wanted to hit late and fast.
Didn’t want to give the union leadership a chance to respond to the alarm.
Key senate races in PA, WI, FL, VA so If RR turnout is as good as many think it will be on Tuesday their coat tails could drag at least a few of the Republican senate candidates across the finish line with them. Also Scott Brown (MA) is +2 in this poll that came out yesterday (http://kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_MA_Statewide_11.1.pdf). It is a D+26 poll with about 50% of the respondents being Independents. Jobs (31%) and deficit spending (27%) are the main issues of the electorate and it seem Brown would do well.