Romney Rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania Sunday (Nov 4) 5:30pm

Hat-tip to No Tribe for the alert. Mitt Romney is rallying the troops in the Philadelphia suburb of Morrisville, Pennsylvania on Sunday looking to paint that state red!

You’re Invited to a Victory Event with Mitt Romney & the Republican Team!

When: Sunday, November 4th, 2012

Doors Open 2:30 PM | Event Begins 5:30 PM

Where: Shady Brook Farm, 931 Stony Hill Road in Morrisville, PA 19067

To register for the event, click here.

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible. No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

For questions, contact us at: TeamPA@mittromney.com | (717) 746-8098
For Important Campaign Updates: Text (PA) to GOMITT (466488)

209 Comments

  1. John
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    Update on Iowa early voting is encouraging: http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot

    It still strikes me that the assumption of all Dem early votes going for Obama may be a bad one. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that there will be substantial cross-over by disenchanted Dems, especially those who were new voters in ’08, but just didn’t bother to change their party registration. Cross-overs from Rep to Dem seem much more unlikely so Romney should win the cross-over vote which could be non-trivial factor. As said repeatedly ultimately it will be decided by turnout on Tuesday.

    • WillBest
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      Romney should lose about 6-7% republican support, and Obama should lose about 8-10% democrat support. Anything more would be highly irregular.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink

        I think the Republican bleed off this time will be lower, under 5%. Obama bleed off from Democrats will run double the GOP bleed off.

      • damien
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:58 am | Permalink

        7 percent of pubs are not going obama…

      • Di
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

        Why do you say Romney is going to “lose 6-7% republican support”? W

      • Hestrold
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

        Why would 6-7% of Republicans defect after the last four years? Maybe in a different race, a different time. But really, after the last four years a Republican goes into the booth and says, geez, that Romney, no way I’m voting for him. I’m going to send Obama back. Yea, that makes sense.

      • Chris
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

        Hestrold? How dare you forget about loyal GOP member Colin Powell!

      • WillBest
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

        Well 2-3% of them aren’t really republicans or democrats they are just registered that way. The rest are bonafide defections. It happens for whatever reason. For example, my sister is a liberal but my mom was a GM bond holder that got @#$#@. She is voting for Romney because of that, but will go back to voting for dems next time.

    • edtitan77
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      True generally more Dems cross over to GOP than vice versa but I think as a working assumption you assume they cancel each other out. Then you can play around with the numbers to see how the outcome changed with a shift here or there.

  2. WillBest
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    Is there an updated schedule of events for each candidate for the last 4 days?

  3. Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    What a strong play. This is the action of a confident closer.

    • WillBest
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Near as I can tell the State of the race.
      Romney 257
      Obama 223

      States in play: IA (tie), OH (O+1), NH (O+1), WI (O+2) & PA (O+3).

      Romney needs 1 of OH, PA, or WI+small state to win.
      Obama either needs all 3: WI, OH, PA.
      OR every state but Wisconsin.

      Obama is spending extra money (over his average per EV) in OH (32% more), IA (5% more), and NH (20% more), while taking from Wisconsin (-37%) and virtually ignoring PA.

      Its clear he is banking on his edges in PA and WI to hold while pushing in the rest of the field. Romney is attacking all 3 legs of Obama’s chair (OH, WI, and PA) hard.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        Good analysis. The problem is with O surging on account of Sandy, he may very well freeze your assumptions. If I’m RR, I’m canceling my PA and MN stops and focusing on just IA, WI and OH.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        Firstly, these states only lean O with heavy Democrat samples.

        More states are in play. You neglected Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and Oregon. There’s also increasing evidence that New Mexico and Washington state are swing.

      • NHConservative
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        I live in NH and we don’t have an EV…it’s only Absentee, which I’ve done in case I get hit by a truck between now and Election Day. I will see turnout firsthand as I will be poll watching and uploading Registered Republican voters, as part of “Project ORCA”, up to Romney HQ the entire day.

      • damien
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink

        i agree its clear romney has 257 in the bag…can he get the last 12 to tie or 13 to win….i think he can

      • WillBest
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

        There is no evidence of republican wave in early voting or national trackers, and you have to believe that Obama is cannibalizing the crap out of his election day in order to believe things like MI, MN, OR, and WA are in play. Gary Johnson kills any chance at NM for Romney. Nevada is trending better for republicans but it would need indies breaking 15-20 points in order to win at this point. I am making analysis based on what I am seeing from the national trackers, early voting. I will ignore state polls as being RV polls but I won’t unskew them.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

        Will, I disagree and I do see Democrats cannibalizing their votes. I also think Johnson helps Romney in NM and will pull more off of Obama than Romney.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

        Will, that’s a good point. There really isn’t good evidence to support a R wave…right now. Jeff, that’s just speculation at this point, there isn’t broad evidence supporting the cannibalization theory beyond just a few EV analyses which might suggest that is happening…but only might. I don’t think you can rely on either campaigning putting on anything but a good face right now…as neither would admit to panicking.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

        I have the race right now at:

        Obama 263
        Romney 248

        Toss ups: Colorado (O+1) and Ohio (O+2)

      • WillBest
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

        Romney is leading EV in Colorado by 3% and EV will make up about 60% of colorado voting. Thinking Obama has a lead in CO is silly. You have to believe Romney is cannibalizing his CO vote through early voter and again there is no evidence of that.

      • edtitan77
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        I’m at a loss how Sandy could create a surge for Obama is anyone paying attention to the chaos going on in NY and NJ?

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        WillBest, you can’t go only be EV. I mean take NC as you example, Ds are crushing it, but no one really believes Obama will carry that state. Unaffiliated leans Democrat in CO. Also, look at the RCP averages. I know, don’t tell me, they oversampled Ds.

      • WillBest
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

        live_free, I know, NC is also odd in that it has a lot of D’s that haven’t voted for a democrat in decades. In 2008 Dems won EV in CO by 2%. They are now down 5% from where they were in 2008. And they will need to win the election day vote something like 56-43 in order to pull off a victory in CO at this point.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

        Remember though Ds won EV in 2008 by 2%, Obama carried the state by 9.

      • Fred S
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

        Brad – what do you mean that O will be helped by the Sandy surge. Maybe you mean the surge from the storm will carry Obama out to sea in defeat. Well Sandy has passed but the Romney surge is building.
        I live in NYC and have never seen such devastation. There are huge gas lines, fights and violence breaking out, theft, mass transit is a disaster, food shortages,dumpster diving for food, hundreds of thousand homeless or without heat. It may be too early to expect Federal assistance at this point, but as of now, there is no Federal presence. People are used to Obama giving a great speech then not doing anything to back it up. That is how people around here perceive it.

      • Philanthropic_Extortinist
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

        live_free: I have the race 538 Romney, 0 Obama. See what I did there, I made a prediction that has no explanation, just like you did.

  4. No Tribe
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    Another craptastic poll via number muncher: Gravis Iowa poll has O +4, 49-45. Romney up w/ indies by 5. Sample is D+6 (was D+1 in 08, R+4 in 2010). If Dems are 5% more than 08 O wins.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink | Reply

      He can’t get to 50% with D+6. Pathetic.

      • Teapartypaul
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

        Brad, this websites intention the previous month was to show romney is leading indies in the majority of polls with bigger dem samples than 08. Its the whole point of the crosstab analysis and our confidence

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s actually a great poll for Romney. Would love to see more of that. If you can IA locked up then you can parlay WI and OH with stops until Tues. But for the life of me, I don’t understand why they’ve decided that PA and MN is worth precious time. It could cost them WI and OH.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

        I think that they think that the die is cast in WI and OH, and the 72 hour machine has started. Candidate visits to boost early voting are now over. It’s all about the ground game there. So why not try for O states not polluted by ads? I bet that was the strategy from day 1. See the position as of the 5-7 days, and make the move accordingly.

      • live_free290248
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

        Not sure exactly how this is a great poll for Romney.

      • Teapartypaul
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

        Live free…how does obama who won i dies i think in 08 by 8 percent, and was at 50 or above at this time in 08 in Almost EVERY poll, now lose indies, and poll under fifty and win. Thats what no dem. can explain… Thanks

    • kenberthiaume
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      also that poll says obama wins EV by 63-28 or some such. The Secretary of state of iowa says it’s 44/32/24 D/R/I or thereabouts.

      So basically Romney gets not a single independent vote. Kind of skews things a bit when they get the EV that far off.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

        Or he loses a huge amount of Rs…both of which are ridiculous. D+6 just isn’t going to happen in IA this year. I’d say Even to R+1 is what you’re looking at.

  5. Interested Party
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is great. I am really confused by this election. Romney is acting like he’s going to win it. Obama is acting like he’s going to lose it. Every fundamental as well as every actual real data point (such as the CO early voting, OH decreased early voting, FL early voting) suggests that R’s going to win it as well. Some of the most respected modelers (Ed Goeas comes to mind) as well as even the Huff Post Pollster (11/1/12) suggests a strong Romney national popular vote win (about 52-48). Guys like Micheal Barone (who’s been around the block forever) say the same thing. So why are the polls not showing this? Why no late surge for R? Why no convergence? Is it that Sandy messed up the polling? That Axelrod’s and Messina’s model is correct? The RCP average and sites like Election Projection have been pretty accurate in the past 4 elections every 2 years since 2004. Why such a divergence from what feels fundamentally like a typical challenger win? I just cannot see a coalition of college students, minorities, and union and liberal whites beating a 74-75% white turnout this year with these economic fundamentals, which are so bad that economic models are prediciting a 330-208 R win. Did the pollsters change their demographic weighting that much? Is that going to be the story of this election? Or are we fundamentally a different electorate? Which is it?

    • John
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All good questions. We will know the answers to all of them in about 110 hours.

    • Porchlight
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nobody knows for sure. As Jeff R. and others here have said, look at the House races. Wouldn’t we expect Dems to pick up seats, especially in swing states, if the head-to-head state polls are correct? And yet, that doesn’t appear to be happening – or at least, the polls aren’t showing it. Charlie Cook projects a net pickup of 1 seat for Dems but he isn’t even sure they won’t lose seats. I suspect the head-to-head polls are being tinkered with, but I have no evidence. At minimum there seems to be a misreading of the party composition of the electorate.

      As for a prediction, I go with Barone, Goeas, Rove, Lombardo etc. These guys do this for a living and aren’t going to risk their credibility. And IIRC Rove had Obama winning with 350 EVs the eve of the election, so he doesn’t always pick the Republican.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

        The fact that the house races remain static (although one could argue that redistricting has done this) as well as the Colorado early vote (1.3 million people, 50% of the electorate, at 39R 35 D) make me think you are correct. This whole thing sure is weird.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

        But if there were truly a D surge up from 2008, as the Obama-leading polls are currently showing, we would still be seeing *some* movement in the House. Redistricting couldn’t make up for all of that, could it? BTW I meant to say Rove had Obama winning with 350 EVs in 2008, if that wasn’t clear.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

        How many of those polls are quality polls? Many have ridiculous oversampling of Dems, but yet they are all treated as equals and averaged together.

        Don’t forget pollsters are reporting that the response rates for their calls are down to 9%, Polling is getting less accurate, not more so.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

        There, you’ve hit upon it. It’s a heck of a lot less expensive to poll a House district than it is an entire state. So we should expect to see higher quality polling in the House races and lower quality polling statewide.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

        Rove actually made one hell of a good guess on the eve of Obama’s 2008 victory:

        “Karl Rove, who is widely credited as the mastermind behind President Bush’s election victories in 2000 and 2004, predicts that Democratic nominee Barack Obama will win Tuesday’s election with 338 electoral votes while Republican John McCain garners 200.”

        Final score: 365-173

        0bama took North Carolina (15) by 14k votes, or 0.33%. He took Indiana (11) by 28k votes, or 1.04&%. If both had gone to McCain, the total would have been 339-199. I call that a very good guess.

    • Tom
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Easy answer is the party id. Most polls, including Rasmussen are oversampling dems. NOBODY is taking 2010 into account. 2010 happened and although there will be more dems voting than in 2010, that happens presidential elections, This is going to be an R+2 or better election and it will be a mini-landslide for Romney. Mitt-Mentum

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        I want to agree with that, and I think it is the right idea. When did the demographic weighting start in polls? Did they have it in 2004? 2008 didn’t matter.

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

        They’ve always weighted polls for demographics, but most pollsters don’t weight for party ID, because it’s a preference. Most demographic factors are not preferences.

      • jmar
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

        My liberal friends now say that the D+ advantages in the “RCP” polls are accurate because many R’s are registering as I’s, thereby decreasing the R share of the electorate and conveniently explaining R/R’s advantage with independents. When I asked how they reconciled that logic with the October Gallup party ID poll and the Republican early vote advantage in CO (a swing state!) they had no response. I guess they’ll have to check with Nate Silver and get back to me.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

        I think Josh Marshall is also pushing that idea. Someone (here?) asked the logical question – 2010 exits showed R+1. Why would Rs switch to Is AFTER 2010?

      • stuckinmass
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

        geez, do we have to write their talking points for them now? “clearly gallup is an unreliable outlier polling firm” 😛

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Polling was messed up long before Sandy.

    • Bathhouse Barry
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

      RCP and Election Projection use the skewed polls without question. The latter also has a bizarre positive view of Nate Silver.

      In any event the voting totals so far and campaign stops mean more than any poll.

      Romney is the clear favorite since WI, MI, MN and even Lucy with the football PA are being fought over.

      He has 248 EV after picking up 1 EV in Nebraska, IN, FL, NC and VA.

      So he needs 22 EV from NH, PA, OH, MI, MN, IA, WI, CO and NV.

      At worst he will need all of NH, IA, CO and NV

  6. Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am sitting in Botswana Africa and am watching Romney’s speech from WI. How refreshing. Of course it is not on CNN but thank God for electronic marvels of today, I have a Slingbox connected to my home Directv and watch Fox on my computer. Very powerful speech. On of the best I have heard. He talked about 27 minutes . It was call his closing argument to the American people.

    • christopher
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I concur. It was optimistic, thoughtful and “right on target” regarding the failures and unkept promises of Obama. I love how he has taken the “Change” narrative from the Obama campaign. Let’s do this America!

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

        I agree completely. I know I am partisan but how can anyone listen to O’s speeches and Romney’s and not be persuaded. Blows my mind.

    • Interested Party
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Slingbox from Botswana. My kind of guy. What is it, 11 PM there? PS–the new 500 is really cool and beats the older boxes hands down. I’ll use mine in the UAE next week (I’m flying out 9 PM election night).

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

        It is 6pm. Delivered a new corporate jet to Nigeria in June and they wont let me go. Got news for them I will leave Dec. 15th.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

        Sounds like a real cute spot there, Crowes. Good luck and God bless, and I hope you make it out of there ok.

    • Ranger375
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agree – the best so far. Very uplifting and sincerely delivered.

  7. Dave G.
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    Great to hear this…I’m looking forward to the talking heads exploding when they can’t call PA. for Obama, the minute after the polls close.

    Also, OT, if you missed it Keith, you were quoted on The Hill, here:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/265515-ethnic-mix-of-electorate-gives-campaigns-sleepless-nights

    FOUR MORE DAYS!

  8. Jody
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Polls can be wrong, as those for the Provincial election in Alberta earlier this year. All of the polls for that election, of which there were many, were wrong and completely upside-down:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/24/albertavotes2012-poll-prediction-failure.html

    “Monday’s election results have some Albertans wondering about all those polls that suggested a much different outcome. The stunning win has raised questions about the reliability of polls, their ability to capture late shifts, their methodology and even their proliferation in the Alberta campaign.”

    • margaret
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Canadian election polling, for whatever reason, is really bad. There should be a Prime Minister Ignatieff if the polls had been correct, or even a Conservative minority government. Instead Prime Minister Steven Harper got a majority government.

      • Jody
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

        No comparison.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m sure someone here has the polls vs. results for Reagan in 2008. I want to say the pollsters had him down, and he won by like 7 or something, but I’m just going on a graphic someone posted somewhere recently, can’t remember where.

      That has me wondering if Nate Silver has talked about 1980 vis-a-vis his model. Apparently Silver locked his model in and won’t change it, for methodological reasons or whatever, so you’ve got to think he can run 1980’s numbers and spit our “Regan by x, pollsters were wrong,” right? If not he’s just a buffoon.

  9. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ras 48-48. National.

    Anyone want to speculate what’s going on there?

    • Adam
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m wondering the same thing…. Did Sandy give Obama a bump?

      • Keith W
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        Actual numbers are R-48.4% O-47.6%….a 0.8% difference. Add one tenth to R and take two tenths from O and it’s 49-47. Just statisical noise and fortunate rounding.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

        Do you have a source on the 0.8 or are you just figuring that? It makes sense, just wondering if that was from some insider.

      • Keith W
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

        It’s going around on twitter and some other blogs, doesn’t mean I’m 100% confident in it’s accuracy.

        Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll – D+3…….although Scotty believes it will end up a +D electorate

        Romney = 48.4%
        Obama = 47.6%

        Romney = 11D/88R/47I
        Obama = 86D/09R/44I

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      He increased the Democrat weight by two. D+4.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

        I thought I read from Numbersmuncher 3?

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        Might be three. Even so, Democrats more heavily sampled despite his electorate model polling showing R+1.

      • Interested Party
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

        That is the answer. He changes the partisan weight monthly, and likely changed it on 11/1. Interesting. Why a D+3-4 when his polls consistently show R +3 on non-politcal topics, and his own party ID numbers show a self ID of R+2? Also, the “independents” may have been D’s coming home?

      • Jim S.
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

        I think Ras is running a narrative to be honest(dead heat keeps people glued to the screen). His Party Afilliation tracker tracker is saying ~R+2 when in 08′ it was ~D+7 before the election. Not saying it won’t be close but if R&R GOTV is effective they can do better then D+3 or D+4.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have the internals: bottom line is that O got a bump from Indies from Sandy. R was up 13 before the storm, now 3.

      Couple of things to consider looking deeper: Romney: Certain 46 likely 2 lean 1. Obama: Certain 44 likely 2 lean 1. Doesn’t add up to 48/48 so there must be some rounding, but one would believe there is a slight lead for R. Other thoughts: This is a 3 day rolling average. As some of these big days drop off (and the carnage continues on the East Coast), will it hold? Will Rassmussen continue his party ID at D+3. More will be revealed.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

        Those certain numbers have been stable for 2 weeks. They r not changing.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

        Obama got a 10-point bump from indies from Sandy? I confess I am amazed.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

        It is what it is. It was 52/39 before storm, now 45/42….so really more undecideds. Went from 2% to 3%.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        Porch…remember that he’s talking only about Indies.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

        Yes, but still…that is huge. Just because Obama’s doing his job for a change? Disturbing if true nationwide. Romney needs a big margin with indies.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

        Romney needs a big turnout from the base. GW lost Indies.

      • Porchlight
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

        Well, yes. I want him to have a big turnout from both the base and indies. Need to get beyond the margin of fraud.

      • Adam
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

        So at the end of september (last results) Rassmussen had the party affiliation at 36.8% R, 34.2% D, 29.0% Other. See link…. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

        But he has yet to update those numbers for last month. So what happened? Did they change so much, that it would flip his polls to D+3?

    • Hestrold
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Rass is in it for money too, just like everyone. He wants to keep the suspense going.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, Rasmussen wants to make money, but if he were the only person out there saying Romney would win a landslie, and he were right, that would make him more money, I would think.

        I wonder if he has seen something from Latino voters that makes him think they are turning out this year. That’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

        Well, he doesn’t want to be wrong relative the rest of the pack. If he’s out on a limb and O wins with a D+5 or better sample, he loses credibility and ultimately money.

  10. Ranger375
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Kevin what plans do you have for election night here on the Site? Didn’t know since polling as we have been watching will stop.

    • Keith W
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Us Keith’s don’t like being called Kevin… 🙂

      • Ranger375
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

        Dang it – auto- complete got me. Like those voting machines!

        Keith! Sorry.

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I expect to be live blogging from the current satellite office. I’ll try to just share info not readily available elsewhere especially of some of my sources feed me “inside” info. I’ll warn everyone up front though, I’ve been dry for 2+ months and I’ll be having one or five glasses of wine that night so blogging could be “interesting” 🙂

      • Ranger375
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

        “interesting” could be fun. I am sure some of us will be right there with you in “spirits” anyway.

      • exe
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

        Let’s just hope the night ends with champagne and not scotch.

      • Hestrold
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

        5 glasses is a must!

    • Ranger375
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Meant Keith!

  11. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why is Ras using D+4?

  12. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New Rasmussen ohio poll, 49-49

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Party split is even. The party split last Monday (we’re R was up) was R + 1 or 2…so make of it what you will..

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

        The cross tabs looks funky… But so do the others showing O ahead ion ohio. I’m sure he will do one more ohio poll before this over. I imagine Ras has to be pretty nervous. Much easier to go down with the rest of the polling her together than stand alone and being wrong.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

        I think you are right. Without Gallup posting #’s nationally, he is worried.

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

        I wonder if Gallup is concerned as well. They’ve had plenty off down time to re jigger their methodology.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

        O+9 w/ Indies..in OH. That’s depressing.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

        Though OH EV is Dem heavy so….what do I know. Yeah, zilch.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      40% already voted in sample. Without leaners R 48/O47. O + 9 with Indies.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

        Wait a second.

        Obama is +9 with indies?

        Is that national or Ohio?

        Either way – Yowsa.

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

        Yet in Dem + 9 polls, Romney leads with indies.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

        Just Ohio. Interesting though is that Rasmussen has always had O up with Indies+2 to 9. The reason R does better in his polls is because of D cross over (more Dems r voting for Romney than vs versa) and the party ID is even or R +1. Don’t forget in 2004, the party ID was R + 4.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

        All can be true, because you are just measuring EVs in OH that are going to skew Dem because of OFAs push w/ earlier voters there..including Dem leaning Indies. Wow that’s a lot of acronyms.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

        Ras has always had O up with indies in Ohio, in all his recent Ohio polls.

        This is contrary to essentially all other national and Ohio state polls. In fact, many polls have shown R to be doing better with indies in OH vs nationally. Not sure how he comes up with this but it has been a consistent outlier.

        No worries- O had a rally today in Columbus and drew 2800. Plenty of open space in the venue.

        Romney is expected to out-draw the RNC on Westchester (Cincy suburb) tonight. I’ve heard could be as high as 20K with an additional overflow space

        Bottom line is: O is still below 50% in Ras’ latest- not good for him

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

        Early voting could be affecting Ras’ take on indies. BTW 40% have not voted early in OH, more like 25% at most based on 2008 turnout

    • Fred S
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      C-bus – were there any estimates of the crowd at that rally? I heard that Romney’s crowds are so large, many are turned away.

  13. christopher
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A,must read for analytical, discerning observers..

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/

  14. docsazman
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Can someone please explain to me why Sandy would give Obama a bump in the polls? Favorability increasing I would understand, but this close to the election how would it swing peole’s votes? Are we really that far gone as a country that photo ops move votes? Really?

    • zang
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes. The bump was very very predictable. But probably not lasting… Otherwise, Axelrod would have kept Obama at the White House on storm recovery, etc… Essentially taking kneel downs to run out the clock. But he’s back out there with a packed schedule.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Chris Christie’s over-the-top praise for the President..don’t be surprised to see a few ads cut for this weekend about O’s sudden bi-partisanship.

    • Dave
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Becuase he hugged a lot of republicans for the camera. Apparently didn’t care much about new york because those were democrat governor and mayor.

  15. JGS
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    For those pollsters, like Gravis and Marist, who are doing ridiculous D oversampling, what is in it for them to do so? Are they so partisan that they would rather destroy their own business? What is a pollster without credibility and accuracy? I understand the media outlets (NBC, CBS, NYT, Time, CNN) having those ingrained biases, they’ve demonstrated this time and time again — but why pollsters? Are they just giving their media clients what they want to hear for their own politically-motivated purposes, and their own credibility be damned?

    • zang
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      One theory is this early voting has really skewed things. Dems poll respondents seem to be lying about early voting, because there seems to always be huge Dem early voter claims which are demonstrably false when compared to actual hard data available from the secretary of state

      • M Timer
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

        “One theory is this early voting has really skewed things. Dems poll respondents seem to be lying about early voting, because there seems to always be huge Dem early voter claims which are demonstrably false when compared to actual hard data available from the secretary of state”

        not lying…

        The pollsters have to make 10s of thousands of calls just to finish a poll. Someone who has already voted is by definition more enthusiastic and is therefore more likely to pick up the phone and want to talk about it. This is a structural bias built into all of these polls that no one seems to be interested in correcting.

        By next election cycle you will see this talked about a lot more…

    • Jeff
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Giving the customer (MSM) what they want to hear? .. or .. the customer (MSM) is always right? I agree, they will look like fools with the actual voter turnout is not these ridiculous D+6 and D+10 models…

    • JGS
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Here is another example of what I’m talking about, we have a just-released poll from PPP showing Obama +4 in CO, with a D+4 (40D, 36R, 24I) voter ID, and with a cohort that voted for Obama +9 in 2008 (same as 2008, so assuming that Romney is as weak in CO as McCain was, against all of the evidence including early voting statistics this year).

      As pointed out previously many times, CO was R+1 in 2008 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and R+9 in 2004 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33). So D voters are up a whopping 10 POINTS from 2008 (11 points from 2004), and Independents are down 15 POINTS from 2008?

      http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/121102_coloradoresults_lcv.pdf

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

        Look at what ISN’T included in the crosstab… early voter information. Because hard data shows GOP is up 39-36 in early voting. Betcha their poll data shows Dems up big in early voting.

    • Marshmellow Candidate
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If everyone is wrong, then they can just blame it on something external to the polling industry/”science” of polling, and everyone gets a pass, even if polling as a discipline takes a small credibility hit. But you take a huge risk being the only outlier, even if you do win. I’m not surprised these companies prefer to play it safe rather than go for a big bet, even if it would make them a star name for several cycles to come. So unless you have a significant number of pollsters break away from the pack in the same direction–which will never happen–you’ll continue to see the group-think at work given the incentives. (You could probably put up some interesting game-theory grids for these kinds of situations.)

      Either way, this cycle has shown that polling is much more an art than a science. So put less stock in who is going to win, and just vote for the candidate you think best.

  16. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Just Ohio. Interesting though is that Rasmussen has always had O up with Indies+2 to 9. The reason R does better in his polls is because of D cross over (more Dems r voting for Romney than vs versa) and the party ID is even or R +1. Don’t forget in 2004, the party ID was R + 4.”

    Ras is using D+3 nationally now.

    He’s polling more people this week (1000 vs 500 per night) so you would think he’s going to be more accurate.

    As I said above, one thing that would make sense to me is he has discerned a big latino turnout.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If there’s a big latino turnout, then it must be something under the radar, because if there was a whiff of it for the Dems they’d have been trumpeting it day in and day out from the day they found it.

  17. SR
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Numbersmuncher (the conservative Nate Silver) already warned about PPP polls to be released today. His tweet:
    *

    “NumbersMuncher NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

    If these liberal groups just wanted to just know state of race, they’d be private polls. They are paying for these polls to show O momentum. “

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      O-mentum! lol.

  18. Brad
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s some good news! OR looks like it’s tightening. R’s now lead in % of return ballots 45-44 and the overall gap stayed pretty flat day-over-day at 66k. Guys like Keith should keep an eye on this state.

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ah, dang it. Gap is 76k not 66k…but still the trendline is pretty flat.

  19. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No Sandy bump in this poll. Flat, flat, flat.

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/11/02/UPI-Poll-Romney-Obama-tied-at-48-percent/UPI-24791351870794/

  20. Prescient11
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    HERE IS EVIDENCE OF THE COMING WAVE…

    Guys, I love this blog (thanks so much Keith!, I was just in Vegas and spent more time reading your site!!!) and the commenters here are second to none.

    Back to the “wave”. Republican voters always turn out more on election day. McCain WON Ohio on election day voting (nuff said). So early voting in my mind, the fact that it’s as tight as it is, means likely doom to zero (of course, in NV it may allow an insurmountable lead to build, but apart from heavy D registration advantage states, that’s not an issue).

    So back to the wave, LOOK at what Ras. party ID is, he has never OVERESTIMATED R party ID, going back to 2000. Instead, he has UNDERESTIMATED it. For the first time since 2000, he is seeing voters as a party ID of R +2.6-3 points. That has never happened. R party id always has been even or below the dems in his polls since 2000.

    And we all know that R turnout was actually much higher than that in certain years. Most people I know are going to make it an “event” this Tuesday. I am having breakfast with the family and then us and our neighbors are all going to vote.

    And this is Chicago people. I have seen 50 RR signs to 2 zero signs. I don’t know what happens for sure, but I hope I’m right thinking that this is going to be a massive shift at all levels…

    • AC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 3:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      Prescient11, Where are you located in Chicago? I live near DePaul University. AC

  21. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    @M Timer: “The pollsters have to make 10s of thousands of calls just to finish a poll. Someone who has already voted is by definition more enthusiastic and is therefore more likely to pick up the phone and want to talk about it. This is a structural bias built into all of these polls that no one seems to be interested in correcting.”

    Very interesting insight. Intuitively it makes sense; I wonder if there is a way to actually prove it.

    • M Timer
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m sure the pollsters could mine their data to see how big the effect is. It obviously would be more significant the higher the percentage difference between candidates in the EV pool.

      Many of these issues have always been around. They are becoming more important now as the response rates on these polls have collapsed over recent years. As I mentioned in an old thread, the 9% response rate that is frequently thrown around in the media is a pipe dream. It is much lower than that for regional pollsters in poll-saturated battleground states. Small statistical bias-tendencies become magnified at lower response rates.

      Another note since I am typing and this has been bothering me. Cell phone only voters lean Dem because they are younger. But all of these pollsters already re-weight the demos of their polls by age. So what is the point of running around looking for younger voters when you are already planning to re-weighting your data to to a predetermined age bracket?

  22. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s Dick Morris. I actually take this as a positive, given his track record.

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/02/sudden-danger-signs-in-polling-as-election-day-nears/

    • Loach
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Morris hedging his bet at the last minute is ridiculous. If Romney loses this election, whatever marginal credibility he had is gone.

      • Prescient11
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

        I do not like this as well. A landslide does not go away with small movement in the polls on a daily basis. It either exists or it doesn’t. I still like his messaging though.

        FINISH HIM!!!!!!!!!!!

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

        Dick Morris never had any credibility to begin with. It is sad that people latch on to anything he has to say. Seriously. This guy is a huckster and in this to promote himself and sell books.

        Clinton fired him for sucking toes, so he made a career out of Clinton bashing. The Clintons deserve it, but never trust someone who does things because they have an axe to grind.

      • Prescient11
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

        Zang, I agree 100% with not trusting morris. but I think his political skills/savvy are pretty good. plus, I’m happy with his assessment! his latest sandy thing is kind of weird, but the storm just hit and the misery is building. I think any kind of bump may be shortlived.

      • Svigor
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

        Good thing I haven’t quoted Morris once. 🙂

    • Porchlight
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Isn’t he basing this solely on Ras showing the race now tied? Earlier commenters have pointed out that without rounding Romney is really .8 ahead and if you shifted the percentages a couple of tenths of a point, the rounding flips back to 49R 47O. Not much movement there at all.

  23. Medicine Man
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is uplifting.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/ruh-roh-democratic-early-voter-turnout-in-ohio-is-down-230000-from-2008/

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ace of Spades also has a nice updated piece on Ohio.

      http://ace.mu.nu/

    • Benson
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The media is acting like Obama is losing in my opinion. Their narrative seems more desperate – as they embrace the dem talking points full tilt.

  24. Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ramussen has Romney and Obama tied at 48. Could this be a bounce from Obama’s visit to NJ after the storm or something else?

  25. Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney was up 2 a few days ago :/

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Party ID changed from R+2 to even.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

        Party ID changed in OHio polls

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

        How do you know? Is the ramussen Ohio poll using a democrat plus 3 sample?

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

        1 piece of good news from the ramsussem Ohio poll that is Romney leads by 3 among those certain to vote

    • JGS
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes but as noted elsewhere, it is really Romney +0.8%, and because of rounding a move of 0.2% one way (R) and 0.3% the other way (O) would have reproduced the R+2 results from the day before. So no need to panic, all is well. Also, because Rasmussen does a 3-day rolling average, Tuesday (the day of the big Christie-Obama love-fest) is going to roll off for tomorrow’s results, and as it has become more apparent that all is not going swimmingly well in the wake of Sandy 5 days after it hit, I expect the results from yesterday and today to be less good for O.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

        JGS, you are putting a nice positive spin on it but that is a not a good number for Romney

      • Commonsenseobserver
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

        But it’s not a good number for Obama, either, looking at the rest of this year.

  26. TPK
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is a pretty profound statement by the Romney campaign. On the very last weekend before election day, the campaign is spending its scarcest, most precious resource – the candidates’ own time – on Pennsylvania and Minnesota, two states that nearly every talking head considers “noncompetitive”. That says a lot.

    I do wonder what it says about the campaign’s views of Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Have they become less important? Do they think those states are already locked in for one candidate or the other?

    I have to think they consider Virginia in the bag – it is an absolutely-must-win state for Romney, so I have to think he’d be visiting at least once this weekend (perhaps before the Bucks County appearance) if he thought there was a realistic chance he could lose there.

    I can’t believe they think the same of Ohio, so perhaps they think Ohio is just too campaign-saturated to affect now and that their time is better spent planning for the worst and bolstering a scenario where they can win without Ohio.

    It’s a viable scenario. I was just playing with RCP’s “create your own” campaign map. I turned NC, Florida, and Virginia red – I think they’re all safely in Romney’s corner, Virginia included. I also turned Colorado red because I think Romney has already won that race. Early voting turnout is R+3 in a state where Romney leads independents significantly in every poll, where 80 percent of the vote was cast early in 2008 with Democrats winning the early voting turnout D+2. Finally, I turned Minnesota gray – it obviously is considered a tossup by both sides now. Finally, I turned Ohio blue to work this scenario:

    The count is 257 Romney, 209 Biden, with the tossup states being Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. In this scenario Romney wins by taking: (1) either Pennsylvania or Michigan, (2) either Minnesota or Wisconsin and one other state, or (3) all three of New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada, or, just to get weird, (4) just Nevada and Iowa and picking Maine’s 2nd District, OR, even weirder, (5) just Nevada and Iowa, tying the electoral vote with Romney being elected by the House and Biden probably being elected VP by the Senate.

    Again, assuming that Romney has won Colorado on the strength of early voting (I think he pretty clearly has) and (safely) assuming that Minnesota is a tossup, that is a lot of plausible paths to victory for Romney even if he loses Ohio, so expanding the map seems like the way to go here.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You are exactly right. If RR thought Ohio was lost. He would be living in IA/NV/NH/WI…no stops in OH or Penn….those state would be the most viable way to 270 without Ohio….

      It speaks of total confidence.

    • bks
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      McCain went to PA just before the 2008 election.

      Obama +4 in today’s Gravis poll of Iowa.

      –bks

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

        Difference is in 08 Obama was in Indiana and NC (Red States). This year he is making 2 stops In WI (a state he carried by 14 last time)…sorry troll, much IS different than in 08..

      • Svigor
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

        True, McCain went to PA. Did 0bama follow him? Because pretty sure that last I heard, 0bama was following Romney into PA this time. He’s also spending money there now, though not as much as the Republicans. It’s like a game of follow the leader with Romney in the lead.

      • Commonsenseobserver
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

        Do us a favour and take out the ‘k’ from your name, thank you.

  27. Tony
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    He will make good VP, but Paul Ryan is terrible on the stump.

    • Porchlight
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think Romney chose him to help govern more than to help campaign. A major reason why I like the pick.

  28. Brad
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Like this chart…

    http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed!

  29. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ryan returning to Reno on Monday. Odd movements by the candidates.

    http://www.rgj.com/article/20121102/NEWS/311020043/Paul-Ryan-back-Reno-Monday-rally-Romney

    • JGS
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They wouldn’t be doing it if they didn’t think it might make a difference. Only way to win NV is to pump up the enthusiasm and the turnout, and what better way to do that than to make an appearance there the day before election day? I don’t think it’s odd at all. These guys can go 24 hours straight the day before election day and hit lots of places, you know Obama/Clinton/Biden and his surrogates will all be on the move every place they think they can make a difference.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

        Agreed. They think NV is in play.

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

        Nevada looks pretty out of reach to me, based on the Clark County numbers Keith posted. In every map I’ve ever made, Nevada has never been a part of it, so I guess I’ve never seen it as winnable. Hope I’m wrong!

      • JGS
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

        I want to test that for a minute. Here is the up-to-date NV early voting/absentee ballot summary chart from the NV SOS.

        http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500

        While it shows EV/AB advantage for O in Clark County of 61,056, it also shows that O’s overall advantage statewide for combined EV/AB is only 41,036.

        It also shows a total of 116,871 “Other” (Independent) EV/AB votes cast, so if Romney has a 20% advantage with early voters (which remains to be seen of course, there was a Gravis poll showing R +35 with independents but I’m sure that’s as wacky as their other poll data this cycle), that would mean a reduction of the net O advantage by 20% X 116,871 = 23,374, so a net advantage going into the final day of EV/AB + election day of only 17,662 (41,036 – 23,374). If we assume that O picks off the same % of R voters as Romney picks off of D voters (a big assumption, usually R gets a slightly higher crossover vote), that still leaves less than 18,000 votes overall to pick up on election day. Probably still within the “margin of fraud” for Reid/SEIU to prevent R from picking up that many votes, but it’s nowhere near insurmountable if we get good R turnout on election day (and today), and if the visit from Ryan pumps up the enthusiasm and gets R voters out on election day.

      • JGS
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

        By the way, NV SOS just updated its data to reflect missing counties from yesterday, the total margin is now down to 40,668.with 117,078 “Other” votes, so on my above assumption (20% R advantage on independents), the net margin still to be made up would be 17,252.

      • Brad
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

        Gravis poll w/ Indies is an outlier. I think you have to assume 5-15 for RR w/ Indies.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

        The guy from Las Vegas, (Ralston I think) says indies are going to break “within the margin of error” in Nevada.

        Presumably that means pretty even.

        What would the indy vote have to be to put RR over the top?

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is interesting. Not going to read too much into it since it is Ryan….If Romnus…well

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

        Romney is going as well.

        I’ll confess, I think they have a better chance of winning Pennsylvania than Nevada.

  30. JGS
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Note also that the latest PPP national poll can only get Obama to +1 with a D+6 electorate (and still below 50% even at that). PPP’s prior poll was D+4, so they are printing out more Democrats as fast as they can. Romney is also up with both Independents and crossover voters, so literally the only way for PPP to get the topline result that they (and/or their client) want is to oversample Ds up to D+6. Prompting NumbersMuncher to Tweet:

    NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
    Newest PPP national has Obama up 1, 49-48. Sample moved up to D+6 (was D+4). Romney up w/ indies AND crossover voters.
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

    • Brad
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Oh, and it’s PPP…so….

      • bks
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

        Until this year the PPP polls were considered gold-standard and had shown no signs of bias. Why do you think you can discount them this year?

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Policy_Polling

        –bks

      • JGS
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

        Why do you believe them when they are consistently showing higher D turnout for 2012 than in a wave election in 2008, against all evidence?

      • MichaelG
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

        bks read your own link “founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam” and “PPP’s polls have been described as “Democratic-leaning”

      • bks
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

        MichaelG: Sure you guys are describing them as Democratic-leaning, but if you keep reading you’l see that they have never been *found* to be Democratic-leaning. Rasmussen has consistently been describes as GOP-leaning. I say, include them both.

        –bks

      • JGS
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

        It’s not “us guys” describing PPP as Democratic-leaning, it’s reality as evidenced by the way all PPP polls are denoted in Real Clear Politics. Here is just one example (from a recent PPP poll in CO):

        PPP (D) 10/23 – 10/25 904 LV 3.3 51 47 Obama +4

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Doesn’t that Rasmussen poll make you worry a bit? It all but says Obama is touching 50% in their latest polling day.

      • zang
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

        You can’t possibly have any idea how he did last night. It may be just as likely as a very good Romney night fell off the sample.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

        Well that’s true, but looking at the last three or four polling days that doesn’t seem likely.

    • JGS
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “A bit”, yes. “A lot”, no.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

        +1, but my logical mind takes over. What incumbent polling consistently at 47 climbs over a challenger to reach 50 with unemployment of 7.7% in the history of presidental elections to win?

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

        7.9. I guess I figured it would be down to 7.7…lol

      • JGS
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

        +2 — my sentiments exactly. (And unemployment is 7.9%, not 7.7%, and is really 14.6%.)

  31. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen Michigan: 52-47, in favor of 0bama. Probably too little too later, should have made a move on the state earlier.

  32. zang
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Re PPP, they are releasing a spasm of polls out today on behalf of liberal groups, but they plan to issue more “final” polls on Sunday or Monday. Be interesting to compare the two.

  33. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Event he New York Times thinks Pennsylvania is a story

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/in-shift-romney-campaign-makes-push-in-pennsylvania.html?ref=politics&_r=0

  34. bobhadababyitsaboy
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Clinton is going to pa on monday. I bet Robert Gibbs will spin that as pa is not in play!

    • docsazman
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PPP is going to put out a bunch of partisan polls, ignore them. Don’t fret the RCP nat’l average too much either, as the NAtional Journal outlier of O+5 is skewing things.

  35. Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Depressing polls the last two days. This entire week has been horrible.

  36. mchlgregg
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It makes me wonder if the Rasmussen poll has been hiding something or is hiding something. I think that Romney is going to win and I think that there are going to be a lot of people who are going to be surprised by what states Romney wins on election night. These polls are just driving me crazy and I don’t think they are doing a very good job of telling the real story!

    These are just some random thoughts 4 days out!

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I like your confidence. My belief was always the National Polls (Gallup and Ras’) were showing Romney up by 2-5 and I just couldn’t imagine such a large variance with the swing states.
      But now that Ras is showing a tie, that now makes me feel all of those swing states polls showing Obama ahead now seem way more credible than I want them to be.

  37. PJBRIEN
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    C/T Alert

  38. GT
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A couple things about CC and Sandy. I live in NJ..A few things from the ground. Half the state still does not have power Including half my town and my kids schools. Trees are down everywhere still blocking many roads and gas lines are upwards of 4 hours in most places and this is in NNJ not down the shore. The photo op that CC did was with 2013 in mind.NJ has become a pretty deep blue state More than likely he will be running against Cory Booker and how this storm is handled will fall back on his shoulders not BO. What sometimes looks good on Tuesday doesn’t so much on Saturday . Jersey is a mess and that is beginning to come out in more places than Drudge. Do not forget any bounce he got will hopefully flush out by Tues.

    • AC
      Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:22 am | Permalink | Reply

      This tweet by Rupert Murdoch is from late Friday. “Thanks Bloomberg right decision.@Now Christie, while thanking O, must re- declare for Romney, or take blame for next four dire years.”

  39. Posted November 3, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    100,000 expected at rally in Bucks County.

  40. tom humphrey
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    This late campaign stop worked to elect Bush in 2004 right across the road from Shady Brook Farm, and the same will work for Romney to take PA. in 2012. Can’t wait to have a real national leader, a good man.

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