Ohio Tied 49 to 49 — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports has the latest in Ohio — ground zero for the 2008 election.  The race is all knotted up at 49 a piece leaving few Undecided voters to turn the election:

With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.

At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio’s 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then. Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead. Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 49
Other 2
Undecided 1

35 Comments

  1. Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ‘A CNN-ORC poll released late Friday showed Obama hitting the 50 percent mark, leading Romney, who took 47 percent support. The party identification for the survey of likely voters was 38 percent independent, 32 percent Democratic and 30 percent Republican

    A Reuters-Ipsos poll released earlier in the day found the president with a small lead, 47 percent to 45. And a Rasmussen survey of the state showed Obama pulling into a tie with Romney at 49 percent, after having trailed 50 percent to 48 in the same poll earlier this week.’

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265651-polls-move-toward-obama-in-battleground-ohio

    • Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      what is the sampleof the reuters-ipsos poll? and what is the sample for Ohio in 2008?

    • arizona rules
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if you see the letters CNN just immediately delete…will be useless…

      • jeff
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        Agreed. CNN wants to make in kind contribution to Obama.

  2. Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nice timing for a push poll to come out to help Obama. Where are the internals? Also, Rassmussen does have something off in his reporting about Independents, must have switched that, because in 9 of the 11 polls taken since the first debate, Romney has led the Independent vote, so the number Ras reporting today, Obama by 9, must be off. And once again, 40% of Ohio has not voted. Also, one other point, these are exit polls going on, not one vote can be counted or reported until polls close on Nov. 6th. Don’t put much stock in exit polling either.

    • NHConservative
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Does the WaPo (National) and CNN Ohio have their Indy’s spread available?

      • Alex
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        Independents for Romney by 7, 51-44.

      • Alex
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        in the WaPo poll.

  3. jvnvch
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Democrats seem to be hoping they can win Ohio, and thereby win the election, even if Romney wins the national popular vote. Perhaps they can, but the odds would seem to be against it. In the last 22 presidential elections, starting with 1924, the Democratic nominee has done better in the popular vote in Ohio than in the country as whole only four times, and only one of those nominees, Lyndon Johnson, did so by more than 0.6%. Based on that history, if Romney wins the national popular vote by more than 0.6% this year, which seems likely, his odds of winning Ohio would seem to be excellent.

  4. Tom
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Barone is predicting Romney 315 – obama 223

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJQ45oU0yic

    • John
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Excellent assessment and simply too logical to be ignored (or wrong). so applying logic and election experience is considered “going out on a limb”, eh? I can’t wait until Tuesday evening 🙂

      • Tom
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

        Yeah, obviously Barone doesn’t write his headlines, some lib leftist does that.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

        Well, Barone himself in the article says, “Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.”

    • zang
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What is Barone’s track record for predictions?

      • jeff
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

        The guy is a walking encyclopedia. He kmows what hes talking about.

      • Bob San Diego
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

        I really like Michael Barone, but that doesn’t really answer the question.

        A quick google search show he predicted the dems would *not* get a filibuster proof majority in the Senate in 2008 – but that’s the only one I could find.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

        That was before Frankin fiasco in MN. That was pure fraud.

      • Alex
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        Tack on the fact that it was Arlen Specter switching parties in 2009 that gave them 60.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

        The Democrats did not get a filibuster proof majority in 2008. They got to 59 with their independents that caucus with them. They did not get to 60 until Specter jumped ship in April of 2009.

    • Svigor
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Part of me’s always saying it’ll be something like Barone’s prediction, and the other part just tells it to STFU and concentrate on states I think will put Romney to 270.

    • Terry
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for posting this… I just happened to write down my projection last night and came up with 295-243… The only difference I had with Barrone is Penn but I would not be surprised to see it go red on election day.

  5. Bob San Diego
    Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ““Ohio usually decides who the president is, but I don’t think anyone can guarantee Ohio for anyone,” says Denny White, the Ohio Democratic chairman during the 2004 election. “If I were Obama, I wouldn’t bank on Ohio in my win column…. Never underestimate the Republicans for getting their vote out in the last minute.””

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-a-twist-obama-the-democrat-is-depending-on-ohio-20121101

  6. Posted November 2, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Been hearing from Ohio politicos that monitor it and through the campaign that the Republicans have a lead in early and absentee voting by their most conservative count. Have heard the same thing Hugh Hewitt apparently heard too, that the GOP is up 80,000 in Ohio assuming 47% of independents are going Obama, which is a greater percentage than what their polling tells them. The GOP is also expected to win by close to 10 points in turnout on election day itself, but the campaign is playing conservative with the numbers. The Florida people communicating with the Romney campaign up in Ohio have said they are confident. And my Congressman, who has his office less than a two miles from where I live, has talked with his GOP colleagues in the House. They do their own district polling and he is not worried at all about Ohio. He knew it was lost in 2008 and was worried about it in 2004.

    Looking better than 2004 going into election day with a better turnout machine than we’ve ever had is what I’m told. My feeling of the wave is based largely on talking to people in the campaign (and these people were honest to me back in September about how the campaign couldn’t move the needle and was struggling to win voters then) and my Rep, who has access to a lot of info from the other members of the House GOP caucus. These people have blown smoke before and tend to be more cautious. They aren’t right now. There is a very real confidence.

    • arizona rules
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      but wait the very objective polls are telling us it will be D++++++ in Ohio and therefore THEIR MAN is ahead…..

    • displacedRhodeIslandConservative
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This made me feel a little better!

      • jeff
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

        The sharp dropoff in votes in Cayahoga county will prove to be Obamas demise.

    • Terry
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I feel very good about Ohio… The average Republican in Ohio must be thinking that they
      can each have a resounding impact on this election… They must be thinking that each
      and everyone of them can participate in firing Obama… I cannot imagine anything keeping
      them away from the polls on election day.

    • Fred S
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Jeff – Great post and thanks for sharing that information.
      The only thing that worries me is that there will be a huge last second surge in Cuyahoga County. Bob Beckel stated on Fox News this would happen, although the Democratic way is to get the EV in early. I also heard that there have been some weather issues related to Sandy in eastern Ohio that could also dampen turnout. Just curious if you have seen any significant movement in the EV toward the Dems since Tuesday when Karl Rove did his analysis.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

        They were down again today 15-20% in EV from 2008. I don’t see it happening.

      • Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

        I’m originally from outside C-Town. They turned out early in 2008, not at the end. Beckel is just parroting Democrat hope because they are desperate. We are ahead in Ohio and we’re going to win by 4-6 there, outside the margin of fraud. Over 150,000 vote margin.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      All I know is looking at the objective data (Obama down 100k in absentee requests,Rebubs up 30k), Obama down 200k in EV and Rebubs up 30k+. Mix in 85% of the polls showing Mitt up with Indies…all this makes sense. It is the reason Mitt is so confident.

  7. Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Feeling a bit better seeing that crowd in Ohio. Still slightly worried about Colorado and Iowa. I think Florida is a win by at least three points

    • Medicine Man
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Iowa sure, Colorado..Nope..

  8. Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Has anyone seen that video of Romney being interviewed in an Iowa radio station? Is it an old video. Romney does seem a little bit agitated.

    • PJBRIEN
      Posted November 2, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Shouldn’t you be at a Fluke rally?

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