American Crossroads going up with $1.4 million TV buy in Minnesota
— Peter Hamby (@PeterHambyCNN) November 2, 2012
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Battleground Watch 
41 Comments
I’m praying for a snowstorm in Cuyahoga County in Ohio. Keep their base in….we win Ohio its over!!!
Unfortuneatly, the forecast is 46 and sunny…lets just do it the right way and come out in full force!
Unfortunately, not looking like that is going to happen. Sunny, 46 degrees, and 0% chance of precipitation on Nov. 6, 2012 in Cleveland, OH
http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Cleveland+OH+USOH0195:1:US
Cuyahoga does not turn out like crazy on election day. I’m from the area originally. They don’t. I expect Cuyahoga to be much, much closer than it was last time. Obama will lose tens of thousands of votes in his margin from Cuyahoga.
I’m in cuyahoga and I agree. One thing is for sure- Obama lost this past Sunday thru Wednesday/Thursday in turning out low propensity voters as the weather was terrible. Obama was around Columbus this morning, his crowd was estimated by the fire dept. to be around 2500. Romney is holding a rally on Sunday @ the IX center(next to the Cleveland airport) which has 1 million sq feet…..read into this as you want but I think it’s rather telling.
Off topic. Iowa continues to be a state I am bullish on.
On Tuesday, early vote had D 44.2- R 32.1 Was a full 18 points in 2008, so down to 12 and change seemed worthwhile, but maybe still out of reach.
Today we see, via GWU early, 43.0-32.2 or a further close to 10.8.
Iowa is a state I think is at worst (for R) a 50/50 toss up, and I woulda made the odds 35-65 tilted to Obama just last week.
JMO, of course.
this looks desperate
I don’t know, you sound pretty desperate to me.
Yes, I agree. Very desperate. How is Mitt Romney going to reach 330 electoral votes without Minnesota? Oregon maybe? Yea, that desperate . . .
I wish I had your confidence Keith. I’m a tad pessimistic by nature. Of course, I’d have even less confidence if I’d never found this site….
Keith you pessimist! 350 for Romney. Mitt-Mentum
You are quite an optimist. Romney will be lucky to get 248.
Axelrod: Minn? Never heard of it. Nothing to see here. Move along ….
I think it was Rove that said this… We will know how the election is going to go around 7pm on tuesday night. Polls close in Virginia at 7pm, and if Romney wins Virginia by 3 points or more turn it to MSNBC to see heads exploding the rest of the night. If Romney wins .1-2 points it’s gonna be a nailbiter all night. If Obama wins, go to bed…
And what happens if Romney wins Virginia by more than 5 and Florida by more than 7? I’m starting on Fox and moving to MSNBC when Pennsylvania gets called early for Romney. I get to hear how racist the entire country is.
But what stories will come first? Racist or Cheaters?
Have your favorite adult beverage on hand for Tuesday night. CELEBRATION! Mitt-Mentum
If that’s the case, I’m gonna be one hungover guy at work on wednesday.. But then again, if it goes the other way, I’ll probably be hung over worse! (and probably for 4 years!)
Lol starting with CNN will look at VA and CT. VA closes at 7 and CT at 8.
In VA I’m looking at the margin of Romney victory anything over 3 he’s won and Ill switch to MSNBC to see the fireworks.
Actually, if Obama goes to bed at 7.30, we will know its all over:-)
I guess you haven’t seen Ohio’s early returns.
Obama is way off his 08 pace and Romney is way up. It’s over but the voting. Romney will win.
Agreed except Obama won by a greater margin than that difference, so election day turnout (and the votes cast by independents) still matter a lot.
And the GOP won election day turnout in 2008 in Ohio. Obama banked his margin of victory in early and absentee voting. I’ve heard that McCain won by over 100,000 votes on election day and lost by around 250,000. I expect heavier GOP turnout this time and Obama does not have his 350,000 vote cushion. As I’ve said repeatedly, Ohio is keeping its House delegation as majority Republican by far and probably not seeing much turnout. Pay attention to the House races to see where the state is going.
Jeff is correct. Use common sense people. Ohio is Romney. The election is Romney. Overwhelming evidence for it. You just have to piece it together like a detective. The campaign is entirely in states obama won. Wake up. Mitt-Mentum
Keith, would appreciate your thoughts on this morning’s Gravis poll showing Obama +4 in Iowa (linked below).
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/11/final-iowa-public-opinion-poll2012.html
41D-35R-28I voter ID breakdown. Keith previously crapped all over the Marist poll in Iowa that was D+3, now we get D+6? As Keith pointed out in his piece on the Marist poll, 2008 was D+1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 was R+2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30). So we are supposed to believe that Dems have gone up 7 points since 2008? And that independents are down 5 points from 2008? If all Gravis can get out of these internals is D+4, maybe Iowa is Romney’s to win after all.
This poll also shows that among early voters, Obama is up 63-28 (can that possibly be even close to right)? And that Obama is winning 16% of the votes of Republican voters? While Romney is +5 among independents? None of this looks right to me.
Terrible poll, imo.
Early voter split on GWU shows a 10% Obama early voting lead by party. I’s are not breaking in any way shape or form to O in big numbers.
Here are the splits and numbers so far
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332272/how-romney-camp-sees-early-vote-iowa
In addition to the D+6 note that the 18-29 is 17% and 65+ is 18%, It seems highly unlikely that those two age groups will have the same turnout.
All this poll says is that if Obama achieves incredible Dem turnout, much higher than he got during a banner year for Dems, he wins Iowa. Which is true everywhere. As to how likely that is? Not very 🙂
Chris is correct and thanks to the others as well. I can’t keep up with comments like I used to. That Gravis poll is crap. No way Obama achieves that level of turnout advantage so quite simply they over-sample Democrats and barely show Obama leading. Iowa is close but Romney is gaining and should win the state.
Check out Dick Morris’ video on dickmorris.com for today.
By the way, your blog is great. Very straight forward and honest, whether the news is good or bad, which is what gives you credibility.
My first post here! I have been following you though for the past two months, Keith! Thank you for your site.
I am from West Chester, Ohio, but i just moved to Canada a few months ago, due to my husband’s job change.
I have voted absentee ballot 🙂 And I am still following this election so closely.
I just wanted to make sure that you will post about the Romney rally in West Chester, OH tonight.
It is going to be awesome! They are expecting 25,000-40,000 people to come! Info can be found on http://www.wcpo.com
Only wish I could go 😦
Thanks for this informative site, Keith! You have done a great job!
blogged it this morning
Rush just said expecting 50,000!!
I’d like to know what’s happened in Ohio since the 31st, haven’t seen any updates.
Didn’t ya hear? Obama is up elevenybillion to 17:)
But that poll shows D+16 Trillion 😦
Voting is down in lib areas. GOP has increased early vote vs 2008 and dems are down. Obama had a 265,000 early vote lead in 2008, but it looks like he’ll be lucky to have a 80,000 lead this time. Romney should win Election Day vote by well over 150,000.
Thanks Ta. Got a source?
My beverage of choice, of course, for election night is a Dom Perignon Champagne!
Well chilled, of course — with a lovely GlenFiddich standing by when MSNBC commentators commit seppuku!
Do not mix the two. Bad headache. Been there done that.
Aren’t women supposed to commit hara kiri? Or is it the other way around?